Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

[SultanArda]

I wonder what would happen in 1983 Elections. OTL route (ANAP), Military route (MDP) or social-democratic (HP) route?

 

[Reisen Storm]

Great election map. Carey and the Democrats in Congress did very well! Great chapter. 👍 Looking forward to seeing how the GOP will handle this loss and what direction the party will now go more: conservative or moderate.

Hopefully they go moderate. The conservative wing of the party has been discredited and there’s no way they can recover any time soon.

 

[NedStark]

Hopefully they go moderate. The conservative wing of the party has been discredited and there’s no way they can recover any time soon.

IMO they would need another beating in 1988 to finally go moderate again.

 

[Devoid]

Democrats - 41 Governorships
Republicans - 9 Governorships

Jesus Christ that's brutal. What 12 years in the White House will do...

Also, while Reagan winning VA, NC, and SC isn't suprising, I am surprised he lost Alabama and especially Mississippi. Carter won MS by just 1% IOTL 1976. However this isn't a bad thing, because this timelime continues to be fascinating. It's really good.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Jesus Christ that's brutal. What 12 years in the White House will do...

Also, while Reagan winning VA, NC, and SC isn't suprising, I am surprised he lost Alabama and especially Mississippi. Carter won MS by just 1% IOTL 1976. However this isn't a bad thing, because this timelime continues to be fascinating. It's really good.

I am with you at first glance on AL and MS. But there's a ton of Democratic intertia still in those states so it figures that in a bad year for the GOP there's just enough residual Democratic voting to get those both over the top. I bet that in an average Republican year those states are safely red...er blue.

 

[peeter]

Jesus Christ that's brutal. What 12 years in the White House will do...

Also, while Reagan winning VA, NC, and SC isn't suprising, I am surprised he lost Alabama and especially Mississippi. Carter won MS by just 1% IOTL 1976. However this isn't a bad thing, because this timelime continues to be fascinating. It's really good.

I am with you at first glance on AL and MS. But there's a ton of Democratic intertia still in those states so it figures that in a bad year for the GOP there's just enough residual Democratic voting to get those both over the top. I bet that in an average Republican year those states are safely red...er blue

As long as the democratic presidential nominee splits the white vote the black vote will take them over the top in southern states. Which is why it’s shocking to me that Carey lost Virginia, NC & SC. I’d think he would take a much higher amount of the working class white vote to win in those states. Especially North Carolina

 

[KingSweden24]

Great election map. Carey and the Democrats in Congress did very well! Great chapter. 👍 Looking forward to seeing how the GOP will handle this loss and what direction the party will now go more: conservative or moderate.

Thanks!

Jesus Christ that's brutal. What 12 years in the White House will do...

Also, while Reagan winning VA, NC, and SC isn't suprising, I am surprised he lost Alabama and especially Mississippi. Carter won MS by just 1% IOTL 1976. However this isn't a bad thing, because this timelime continues to be fascinating. It's really good.

Reagan's wins there were pretty narrow. My thinking really is that the Deep South is pissed about Carter in 1976 and has stubbornly higher unemployment than Northern and even many Western states and are thus riper for a wide swing.

As long as the democratic presidential nominee splits the white vote the black vote will take them over the top in southern states. Which is why it’s shocking to me that Carey lost Virginia, NC & SC. I’d think he would take a much higher amount of the working class white vote to win in those states. Especially North Carolina

VA/NC/SC were typically more reliably Republican at that point in time than the Deep South was, for what its worth

 

[KingSweden24]

1980 United States Senate elections

Alabama - Donald Stewart (D, inc) DEFEATED for renomination; James Folsom (D) defeats Jeremiah Danton (R) [1]
Alaska - Mike Gravel (D, inc) DEFEATED for renomination; Clark Gruening (D) defeats Frank Murkowski (R) [1]
Arizona - Bill Schulz (D) DEFEATS Barry Goldwater (R, inc) D+1 [2]
Arkansas - Dale Bumpers (D) re-elected
California - Alan Cranston (D) re-elected
Colorado - Gary Hart (D) re-elected
Connecticut - Abe Ribicoff (D, inc) RETIRES; Chris Dodd (D) defeats James Buckley (R)
Florida - Richard Stone (D, inc) DEFEATED for renomination; Bill Gunter (D) defeats Paula Hawkins (R) [1]
Georgia - Herman Tallmadge (D, inc) DEFEATED for renomination; Jimmy Carter (D) defeats Mack Mattingly (R) [1][3]
Hawaii - Daniel Inouye (D) re-elected
Idaho - Frank Church (D) re-elected over Steve Symms (R)
Illinois - Adlai Stevenson III (D) re-elected
Indiana - Birch Bayh (D) re-elected over Bud Hillis (R)
Iowa - John Culver (D) re-elected
Kansas - Larry Winn (R) DEFEATS Martha Keys (D, inc) R+1 [4]
Kentucky - Wendell Ford (D) re-elected
Louisiana - Russell Long (D) re-elected
Maryland - Charles Mathias (R) re-elected over Barbara Mikulski (D)
Missouri - Thomas Eagleton (D) re-elected over Kit Bond (R)
Nevada - Paul Laxalt (R) re-elected
New Hampshire - John Durkin (D) re-elected
New York - Jacob Javits (R, inc) DEFEATED for renomination but runs on independent line; Elizabeth Holtzman (D) defeats him and Al D'Amto (R) D+2
North Carolina - Robert B. Morgan (D) re-elected
North Dakota - Milton Young (R) RETIRES; Mark Andrews (R) defeats Kent Johanneson (D)
Ohio - John Glenn (D) re-elected
Oklahoma - Henry Bellmon (R) RETIRES; Andrew Coats (D) defeats Don Nickles (R) D+3 [5]
Oregon - Ted Kulongoski (D) DEFEATS Bob Packwood (R, inc) D+4 [5]
Pennsylvania - Richard Schweiker (R) RETIRES; Pete Flaherty (D) defeats Dick Thornburgh (R) D+5
South Carolina - Ernest Hollings (D) re-elected
South Dakota - James Abdnor (R) DEFEATS George McGovern (D, inc) R+2
Utah - Jake Garn (R) re-elected
Vermont - Patrick Leahy (D) re-elected
Washington - Warren Magnusson (D) re-elected
Wisconsin - Gaylord Nelson (D) re-elected [6]

Senate Before Election - 68D, 31R, 1I
Senate After Election - 71D, 28R, 1I

[1] A lot of 1970s Senate Democrats got primaried out in 1980; while this may have been a Carter admin thing, I chose to keep it because why not
[2] If he could barely win in the Reagan Revolution, there's no way Barry hangs on with Carey winning comfortably
[3] This one specifically boils down to how horrible Tallmadge was. Zell Miller did try to primary him in 1980 and fell short; Jimmy Carter is a whole 'nother beast entirely and ousts him successfully
[4] Dole's old seat was a two year rental, in other words
[5] OK and OR I went back and forth on; the Pacific Northwest was pretty swingy back then and its voters were a poor fit for an even-more right Reagan. Neither Nickles nor Packwood had that impressive of winning margins in 1980 so I tipped this in their direction
[6] With all these longterm incumbents getting re-elected across the board... yes, that absolutely does set up 1986 to be the mother of all six-year itch midterms, a 2014 on steroids, with all that ground for Democrats to defend (though politics was also much less polarized back then)

 

[KingSweden24]

1980 US House of Representatives elections

Notable Results differing from OTL:

Alabama 6th - John Buchanan (R) defeated for re-nomination; Pete Clifford (D) defeats Al Smith (R) (D Gain)
California 2nd - Norma Bork (D) re-elected
California 17th - John Hans Krebs (D) re-elected
California 27th - Casey Peck (D) re-elected
Connecticut 3rd - Joe Lieberman (D) defeats Lawrence DeNardis (R)
Illinois 16 - John Andreson (R) re-elected
Illinois 20 - David Robinson (D) defeats Paul Findley (R, inc) (D Gain)
Iowa 3 - Lynne Cutler (D) defeats Cooper Evans (R) (D Gain)
Maryland 3 - Barbara Mikulski (D) retires to fun for Senate; Ben Cardin (D) elected
Massachusetts 10 - Robert McCarthy (D) defeats Barbara Heckler (R, inc) (D Gain)
Michigan 5 - Dale Sprik (D) re-elected
Michigan 6 - Milton Robert Carr (D) re-elected
Minnesota 6 - Rick Nolan (D) re-elected
Minnesota 7 - Robert Bergland (D) re-elected
Missouri 10 - Bill Burlison (D) re-elected
New Jersey 7 - Andrew Maguire (D) re-elected
New Mexico 1 - Bill Richardson (D) defeats Manuel Lujan (R, inc) (D Gain)
New Mexico 2 - David King (D) elected from vacancy (D Gain)
New York 3 - Jerome Ambro (D) re-elected
New York 6 - Lester Wolff (D) re-elected
North Carolina 6 - Richardson Preyer (D) re-elected
Oregon 2 - Al Ullman (D) re-elected
South Carolina 1 - Charles Ravenel (D) elected
South Carolina 6 - John Jenrette (D) re-elected
Texas 8 - Robert Eckhardt (D) re-elected
Utah 1 - K. Gunn McKay (D) re-elected
Virginia 9 - Herbert Harris (D) re-elected
Virginia 10 - Joseph Fisher (D) re-elected
West Virginia 3 - John Hutchinson (D) re-elected
Wisconsin 3 - Alvin Baldus (D) re-elected

Seats Before - 295D, 140R
Seats After - 301D, 134R (D+6)

 

[Curtain Jerker]

I can't see Carey squandering a Democratic Senate/House to the extent Carter did OTL. But any party with that many members is going to have a million different competing interests.

 

[TGW]

Okay let's take a look at this!

Denton losing makes sense, his appeal to begin with was that he was a Vietnam vet attacking the Democrats on security. Can't really do that with a twelve year break, and Folsom getting in is going to shift matters a lot. Gravel and Stone losing makes sense, their constituents were none too happy with their performance. Goldwater losing is an interesting one which I had dismissed, but your reasoning is sound! Definitely seems to mark a real turning point for the GOP with both the current standard bearer and the originator of the Southern Strategy movement getting beaten back. And YAY CARTER!

Church getting re-elected is a surprise but a pleasant one to be sure! His last term in office before he passes on, wonder if he'll get the chance to do some good while he's in it! Bayh and Culver winning re-election is fun, and I'm unreasonably proud that I said that Iowa would stay blue in my picks! I'm glad I put Kansas down as toss-up, it makes a lot of sense that they'd be able to win it back even in this kind of climate. The battle for Maryland continues, wonder if Barbara will run again, or if Matthias will feel as forced out of the GOP in this timeline. Eagleton beating Bond is interesting, wonder if Kit will decide to retire or if he'll make another run in the future. Holtzman winning is great, I'm really chuffed at that even if it is sad to see Javits bow out in such an undignified way.

Oklahoma is the first real surprise for me here! I had that down as Likely R, so seeing the Dems stay a little longer in the fight here is quite something. Oregon too, though that one I have to admit makes a lot of sense. With future Reps becoming Governors and future Governors becoming Senators, the whole timeline is thrown ever so slightly off-course, I love it! And I suppose we all have to lose one of our darlings at some point. Farewell McGovern, hope this isn't the end for you! And I'd be lying if seeing Magnusson and Nelson re-elected doesn't make the sweet overpower the bitterness a little!

So yeah, when 1986 comes out the Democrats might get slaughtered. But what the GOP will look like once we get there will be really interesting to see. 71 Democrats to 28 Republicans? Hells bells! (Honestly trying to predict these things was a lot more fun than I expected) I can't wait for the breakdown of the House, that's going to be very interesting to read.

EDIT: Of course, as soon as I finish typing that you add the House races! .It's interesting to see that while Reagan carried California he doesn't seem to have had much effect on the downballot races. Lieberman one hundred percent makes sense to win, it's a very natural choice, as is Cutler. Findley losing an election earlier is quite logical, as is Heckler losing re-election (Her name is Margaret though, I assume?). Anderson remaining in the House might lead to something interesting. I mean aside from butterflying Morely Martin out of the house. You can bet that when I saw how long Cardin had been in public service I swore the roof down, makes sense for him to get in early here! The Michigan and Minnesota set make sense too, in a world where the Minnesota Massacre never happened. Maguire seems like a nice guy, glad he survived this round at least. Richardson making it in is interesting as is King, because I guess if we lose Packwood we have to make some trade in sexual harrassers (Obviously not what you were doing, just noting the bad coming with the good). Lester Wolff winning is pretty nice, but how the fuck did John Jenrette manage to survive this time. I forget if Abscam was a big thing here or not, or if that comes later on, but even so... McKay winning is pretty good, and he'll be back in OTL to try and get his seat back, so I think he could hang on and keep the Dems in Utah for a little longer. Hutchison getting to serve a proper term is nice, and it does make Bob Wise's future a little uncertain.

All in all, 300 Seats!? Well, that sounds like a lot but over the course of the next decade a lot of these Congressmen are going to start passing on, so I suspect that we're going to get that number dwindling.

 

[peeter]

Thanks!

Reagan's wins there were pretty narrow. My thinking really is that the Deep South is pissed about Carter in 1976 and has stubbornly higher unemployment than Northern and even many Western states and are thus riper for a wide swing.

VA/NC/SC were typically more reliably Republican at that point in time than the Deep South was, for what its worth

Virginia yes but up to 1980 NC and SC voted Democrat on the national stage when civil rights wasn’t a major talking point in the election excluding 72 (NC voted for LBJ by a pretty large margin in 64). Im not sure that SC would be comfortable voting Republican in the national especially since they voted for their first Republican governor in 74 and things havent been going well in his term through no fault of his own, but the optics don’t look good.

Alabama - Donald Stewart (D, inc) DEFEATED for renomination; James Folsom (D) defeats Jeremiah Danton (R) [1]

Bummer, IRL Folsom beat him by portraying him as too liberal and part of the “Washington machine”. I hoped that Ford being in office instead of Carter would help Stewart against Folsom’s attacks since he lost to Folsom narrowly IRL but it wasn’t meant to be

I can't see Carey squandering a Democratic Senate/House to the extent Carter did OTL. But any party with that many members is going to have a million different competing interests.

yep but luckily for Carey he has a large mandate to govern and he seems like an LBJ type to put those whoever are wavering back in line

Farewell McGovern, hope this isn't the end for you!

i think he’ll be named head of the postal service

 

[KingSweden24]

I can't see Carey squandering a Democratic Senate/House to the extent Carter did OTL. But any party with that many members is going to have a million different competing interests.

Carey has the advantage of not self-fellating to his own brilliance and moral superiority, but of course there’ll be some headaches and speed bumps in managing, say, a Senate caucus that has both Jim Eastland and Liz Holtzman in it, to say the least haha

Okay let's take a look at this!

Denton losing makes sense, his appeal to begin with was that he was a Vietnam vet attacking the Democrats on security. Can't really do that with a twelve year break, and Folsom getting in is going to shift matters a lot. Gravel and Stone losing makes sense, their constituents were none too happy with their performance. Goldwater losing is an interesting one which I had dismissed, but your reasoning is sound! Definitely seems to mark a real turning point for the GOP with both the current standard bearer and the originator of the Southern Strategy movement getting beaten back. And YAY CARTER!

Church getting re-elected is a surprise but a pleasant one to be sure! His last term in office before he passes on, wonder if he'll get the chance to do some good while he's in it! Bayh and Culver winning re-election is fun, and I'm unreasonably proud that I said that Iowa would stay blue in my picks! I'm glad I put Kansas down as toss-up, it makes a lot of sense that they'd be able to win it back even in this kind of climate. The battle for Maryland continues, wonder if Barbara will run again, or if Matthias will feel as forced out of the GOP in this timeline. Eagleton beating Bond is interesting, wonder if Kit will decide to retire or if he'll make another run in the future. Holtzman winning is great, I'm really chuffed at that even if it is sad to see Javits bow out in such an undignified way.

Oklahoma is the first real surprise for me here! I had that down as Likely R, so seeing the Dems stay a little longer in the fight here is quite something. Oregon too, though that one I have to admit makes a lot of sense. With future Reps becoming Governors and future Governors becoming Senators, the whole timeline is thrown ever so slightly off-course, I love it! And I suppose we all have to lose one of our darlings at some point. Farewell McGovern, hope this isn't the end for you! And I'd be lying if seeing Magnusson and Nelson re-elected doesn't make the sweet overpower the bitterness a little!

So yeah, when 1986 comes out the Democrats might get slaughtered. But what the GOP will look like once we get there will be really interesting to see. 71 Democrats to 28 Republicans? Hells bells! (Honestly trying to predict these things was a lot more fun than I expected) I can't wait for the breakdown of the House, that's going to be very interesting to read.

EDIT: Of course, as soon as I finish typing that you add the House races! .It's interesting to see that while Reagan carried California he doesn't seem to have had much effect on the downballot races. Lieberman one hundred percent makes sense to win, it's a very natural choice, as is Cutler. Findley losing an election earlier is quite logical, as is Heckler losing re-election (Her name is Margaret though, I assume?). Anderson remaining in the House might lead to something interesting. I mean aside from butterflying Morely Martin out of the house. You can bet that when I saw how long Cardin had been in public service I swore the roof down, makes sense for him to get in early here! The Michigan and Minnesota set make sense too, in a world where the Minnesota Massacre never happened. Maguire seems like a nice guy, glad he survived this round at least. Richardson making it in is interesting as is King, because I guess if we lose Packwood we have to make some trade in sexual harrassers (Obviously not what you were doing, just noting the bad coming with the good). Lester Wolff winning is pretty nice, but how the fuck did John Jenrette manage to survive this time. I forget if Abscam was a big thing here or not, or if that comes later on, but even so... McKay winning is pretty good, and he'll be back in OTL to try and get his seat back, so I think he could hang on and keep the Dems in Utah for a little longer. Hutchison getting to serve a proper term is nice, and it does make Bob Wise's future a little uncertain.

All in all, 300 Seats!? Well, that sounds like a lot but over the course of the next decade a lot of these Congressmen are going to start passing on, so I suspect that we're going to get that number dwindling.

Just enough tweaks to make things interesting! Glad you saw some surprises you enjoyed in there

Virginia yes but up to 1980 NC and SC voted Democrat on the national stage when civil rights wasn’t a major talking point in the election excluding 72 (NC voted for LBJ by a pretty large margin in 64). Im not sure that SC would be comfortable voting Republican in the national especially since they voted for their first Republican governor in 74 and things havent been going well in his term through no fault of his own, but the optics don’t look good.

Bummer, IRL Folsom beat him by portraying him as too liberal and part of the “Washington machine”. I hoped that Ford being in office instead of Carter would help Stewart against Folsom’s attacks since he lost to Folsom narrowly IRL but it wasn’t meant to be

yep but luckily for Carey he has a large mandate to govern and he seems like an LBJ type to put those whoever are wavering back in line

i think he’ll be named head of the postal service

Ford being in office makes the South more reflexively partisan, but not necessarily more ideologically liberal.

McGovern I have a specific role in mind for

 

[GDIS Pathe]

Some wikiboxes, first the Presidential election, where Hugh Carey successfully monsters the Gipper by a decisive, if not landslide margin (an Obama 08/Bush 88 style victory), and the Senate where Dems ride Carey's coattails and their own incumbent strength to wield a 20+ seat majority the likes of which were last seen during FDR.

Note: Assuming Baker becomes minority leader in 79 rather then 77 historically he only beat Bob Griffin by a single vote in the GOP's senate leadership contest, and Gerry Ford's re-elect probably gives the Senator from Michigan some more pull. Of course, Griffin gets thumped in 78, Dole's Veep, so Baker still ends up last man standing.)

And in case anyone is wondering *just* how overexposed Dems are in the Class III Senate map, well... yeah.

 

[Curtain Jerker]

Looking at that map 1986 could be an all-time year for the GOP.

 

[KingSweden24]

Some wikiboxes, first the Presidential election, where Hugh Carey successfully monsters the Gipper by a decisive, if not landslide margin (an Obama 08/Bush 88 style victory), and the Senate where Dems ride Carey's coattails and their own incumbent strength to wield a 20+ seat majority the likes of which were last seen during FDR.

View attachment 774252View attachment 774249

Note: Assuming Baker becomes minority leader in 79 rather then 77 historically he only beat Bob Griffin by a single vote in the GOP's senate leadership contest, and Gerry Ford's re-elect probably gives the Senator from Michigan some more pull. Of course, Griffin gets thumped in 78, then Dole goes down, so Baker still ends up last man standing.)

And in case anyone is wondering *just* how overexposed Dems are in the Class III Senate map, well... yeah.
View attachment 774250

Amazing! Good point on Griffin in ‘76… I’ll consider that canon.

Looking at that map 1986 could be an all-time year for the GOP.

Yeah talk about an oxerexposure. Yikes! And the Class 2 map is pretty bad for Ds ahead of 1984/90, too…

 

[Nazi Space Spy]

Who is the independent in the Senate? Harry Byrd?

 

[peeter]

Ford being in office makes the South more reflexively partisan, but not necessarily more ideologically liberal.

True but the southern democratic machine is back to rolling and presumably has rallied around the national ticket. The Republican Party in the 70s was just starting to build its political machine in the south and ITTL it got wiped off the floor in the late 70s. The two Republican stars in the South Jesse Helms of North Carolina and Storm Thurmond barely retained their seats in 1978.

The question becomes can Reagan overcome the southern democratic machine in these states to be able to rally enough white working class voters to overcome the overwhelming percentage of the black vote Carey will get.

Carey has the advantage of not self-fellating to his own brilliance and moral superiority, but of course there’ll be some headaches and speed bumps in managing, say, a Senate caucus that has both Jim Eastland and Liz Holtzman in it, to say the least haha

I can't see Carey squandering a Democratic Senate/House to the extent Carter did OTL. But any party with that many members is going to have a million different competing interests.

I’d imagine the older conservative democrats will play ball with the administration and the younger ones wanting to make a name for themselves will be the loud ones. Elizabeth Holtzman being the AOC of this era and being the new standard bearer of the New Left is fitting.

And in case anyone is wondering *just* how overexposed Dems are in the Class III Senate map, well... yeah

Yeah not great at all but the silverlining for democrats is that those senators will have incumbency advantages so I’d say we’re looking at the republicans winning 6-8 seats. I’d say the dems will have between 55-60 members of the senate after the elections of 86 which is still pretty good

 

[KingSweden24]

Who is the independent in the Senate? Harry Byrd?

Correct.

True but the southern democratic machine is back to rolling and presumably has rallied around the national ticket. The Republican Party in the 70s was just starting to build its political machine in the south and ITTL it got wiped off the floor in the late 70s. The two Republican stars in the South Jesse Helms of North Carolina and Storm Thurmond barely retained their seats in 1978.

The question becomes can Reagan overcome the southern democratic machine in these states to be able to rally enough white working class voters to overcome the overwhelming percentage of the black vote Carey will get.


I’d imagine the older conservative democrats will play ball with the administration and the younger ones wanting to make a name for themselves will be the loud ones. Elizabeth Holtzman being the AOC of this era and being the new standard bearer of the New Left is fitting.

Yeah not great at all but the silverlining for democrats is that those senators will have incumbency advantages so I’d say we’re looking at the republicans winning 6-8 seats. I’d say the dems will have between 55-60 members of the senate after the elections of 86 which is still pretty good

AOC is a pretty good comparison for Holtzman.

You make a good point on the GOP machinery in the South really getting constructed for the first time in the late 1970s, and the 1978/80 debacles have set that back quite a bit. That said; the old Southern Dem machines were starting to run on fumes for a reason

 

[peeter]

AOC is a pretty good comparison for Holtzman

I’d imagine she’d be in the Ted Kennedy wing of the party. I am interested to see how the New Left reacts to Carey’s presidency

That said; the old Southern Dem machines were starting to run on fumes for a reason

Yep, I admit I’m saying this as in the moment speculation and I haven’t done any research on it but I’d imagine that the southern democratic machine died off because after the Carter presidency a lot of southerners didn’t see the use of southern moderates anymore. 1980 was the final chapter of the new deal coalition and it was clear there was a conservative era coming through so if you weren’t a Republican or a conservative democrat southerners had no use for you anymore. However with the economic troubles of the late 70s being attributed to conservative leadership New South moderates would have the momentum to fill the gaps that the old guard Dixiecrats left.