Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

This is great!!

Yeah I hadn’t boned up on the Scoop ‘76 campaign too much but the result would have been the same I’m sure. He was a candidate who would have made sense in a different cycle/context but by 1980 his time was definitively past
Two factors about the Scoop Jackson campaign worth considering
1: He unexpectedly won the Massachusetts primary (which Carter came 4th in) due to the weak divided field of liberal candidates and his opposition to busing. In considering his campaign in 1980 I wonder what role does busing play in the 1980 election of this timeline?
2: Scoop Jackson had emerged in the Pennsylvania primary as the choice of an establishment labor Anyone But Carter movement, this did not mean he was their prefered choice of nominee, he was seen as a stalking horse for Humphrey who would enter at a contested convention. This was a big factor in his lack of success in Pennsylvania and in other primaries as he became seen as a stand in for another candidate, not a candidate in his own right.
 
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With Reagan as the nominee, will we see any interesting third party candidacies? Anderson or perhaps one from the left, with someone like Eugene McCarthy or a younger Nader or something?
 
With Reagan as the nominee, will we see any interesting third party candidacies? Anderson or perhaps one from the left, with someone like Eugene McCarthy or a younger Nader or something?
Probably Anderson, yeah. Carey is broadly acceptable enough to the left and twelve years without power frustrating enough that they'd mostly toe the line. Anderson, meanwhile, is literally lab-grown to appeal to Republicans who really don't want to vote for Carey but find Reagan too right-wing for them. (Which is curious since Anderson was a doctrinaire conservative by the day's standards for much of his early career).
 
Probably Anderson, yeah. Carey is broadly acceptable enough to the left and twelve years without power frustrating enough that they'd mostly toe the line. Anderson, meanwhile, is literally lab-grown to appeal to Republicans who really don't want to vote for Carey but find Reagan too right-wing for them. (Which is curious since Anderson was a doctrinaire conservative by the day's standards for much of his early career).
Although to be fair Reagan was a new dealer for most of his life.
 
Probably Anderson, yeah. Carey is broadly acceptable enough to the left and twelve years without power frustrating enough that they'd mostly toe the line. Anderson, meanwhile, is literally lab-grown to appeal to Republicans who really don't want to vote for Carey but find Reagan too right-wing for them. (Which is curious since Anderson was a doctrinaire conservative by the day's standards for much of his early career).
Would Anderson really still run? I thought his OTL independent run was in part attributable to Carter’s failure as POTUS, and that he was willing to endorse Ted Kennedy if he had been the nominee instead. In OTL Anderson even endorsed Mondale in ‘84. In this TL, however, there is no failing Democratic incumbent to point to.
 
Although to be fair Reagan was a new dealer for most of his life.
He did start turning to the right as early as his HUAC testimonies in the early 1950s, though, and working for GE was a major turning point for him too. Idk that “most of his life” is quite accurate


Would Anderson really still run? I thought his OTL independent run was in part attributable to Carter’s failure as POTUS, and that he was willing to endorse Ted Kennedy if he had been the nominee instead. In OTL Anderson even endorsed Mondale in ‘84. In this TL, however, there is no failing Democratic incumbent to point to.
hmm this is a good point. Probably not, then. Maybe he’d just endorse Carey as part of a “Never Reagan” movement of liberal Republicans who probably find even Gerry Ford too right wing for their tastes
 
With Reagan as the nominee, will we see any interesting third party candidacies? Anderson or perhaps one from the left, with someone like Eugene McCarthy or a younger Nader or something?
I think Democrats will be dissuaded from supporting such a candidate. In fact, I suspect McCarthy will receive blame in this TL for splitting the left’s vote in ‘76- akin to OTL’s Nader in 2000 and Stein in 2016. Moreover, Hugh Carey is likely more palatable to Progressives than a Southerner like Carter, whilst the prospect of electing a right-winger like Reagan may amplify the incentive to stick with the Democratic candidate.
 
I think Democrats will be dissuaded from supporting such a candidate. In fact, I suspect McCarthy will receive blame in this TL for splitting the left’s vote in ‘76- akin to OTL’s Nader in 2000 and Stein in 2016. Moreover, Hugh Carey is likely more palatable to Progressives than a Southerner like Carter, whilst the prospect of electing a right-winger like Reagan may amplify the incentive to stick with the Democratic candidate.
Agree. Ford taking a PV loss/EV win would basically be an early 2000
 
Un Plan de Sauvegarde
Un Plan de Sauvegarde

Though his doctors had repeatedly begged him to be better about staying up on his checkups, Francois Mitterrand found himself a man with little time for things like regular health checkups or cancer screenings, despite his long history of health issues throughout the 1970s. Having defeated the ostensibly more popular Michel Rocard of the right wing of the Parti Socialiste at the 1979 Metz Congress, he had spent much of the intervening winter trying to update the Common Programme ahead of his anticipated rematch with Valery Giscard d'Estaing in the spring elections of 1981 and continue to position the PS ahead of the Communists as the genuine standard-bearer of the French left. As spring progressed, though, Mitterrand continued feeling more and more fatigued, less able to maintain his daily routines, and his friends and colleagues began commenting that he was losing weight and frequently looked pale. Finally, in late April, he collapsed while speaking to a trade union of Renault machinists near Paris and was rushed to the hospital. Doctors confirmed what many Socialists quietly suspected - Mitterrand's cancer had returned with a vengeance. [1] Treatments were begun and Mitterrand dramatically drew down his scheduling commitments, but the aggressive disease had already spread too far. After suffering a fall late in evening of June 5, 1980, Francois Mitterrand died at the Hôtel-Dieu early the next morning. He was 63 years old.

Mitterrand had been a towering figure of the past thirty years of French politics and with the exception of Guy Mollet easily the most dominant personality on the French left. France's economic struggles in the late 1970s depression had convinced many that the "quiet force" of Mitterrand presented the opening for a leftist head of state for the first time since the Third Republic and an end to the Gaullist hegemony that Mitterrand had spent his career so bitterly fighting. The immediate beneficiary of his death, of course, was not even President Giscard d'Estaing, who was arguably slightly favored in the following year's election based on Fifth Republic political history, but Rocard, who had thought himself the likely champion of the French Left already and now seemed to clearly have a Presidential nomination within reach. The issue for Rocard, of course, was that Mitterrand's star burning out could easily lead to a resurgence of the PCF and the cementing of the Gaullists thanks to a public skepticism of Communism (to say nothing of American and British pressure, even from center-left governments). But first, of course, was Mitterrand's funeral, which most notable French political figures attended (and which his wife and mistress attended together as well) [2], and then the knives could come out later...

[1] So, this is based on a suggestion from way back in this TL of how to kill off Mitterrand ahead of 1981. Apparently, his cancer did come back sometime in 1979/80 and nearly killed him; here, Mitterrand merely doesn't stay on top of his screenings like he should and off he goes.
[2] Gotta keep the best Mitterrand anecdote, even if sixteen years early
 
There falls a giant of the political world...and at a particularly interesting point too. I'm not nearly as familiar with French politics as I ought to be, but that...that could lead to some interesting situations in the coming months.
 
There falls a giant of the political world...and at a particularly interesting point too. I'm not nearly as familiar with French politics as I ought to be, but that...that could lead to some interesting situations in the coming months.
Nor am I, this update was based on some very quick Wikipedia skimming lol. But it basically means that VGE has a much, much better chance at being reelected and so we'd have a center-right French government for the 80s
 
A 1980’s French Left led, not by Mitterrand, but by Michel Rochard, is actually a really cool idea. I actually hope Rochard wins the next presidential election now, so we can see what changes…
 
A 1980’s French Left led, not by Mitterrand, but by Michel Rochard, is actually a really cool idea. I actually hope Rochard wins the next presidential election now, so we can see what changes…
Thanks! Haha I’m not sure my command of 1980s France is robust enough to really dig into how different that would have been though Rocard will stick around as pretty important for some time
 
I wonder if the end of Mitterrand might mean the end of the u-turn. In a way his policies helped destroy the PS’s long term credibility. Perhaps the party could take a more leftish turn rather keep tacking your the right, toward more deregulation, privatization and so forth
 
I wonder if the end of Mitterrand might mean the end of the u-turn. In a way his policies helped destroy the PS’s long term credibility. Perhaps the party could take a more leftish turn rather keep tacking your the right, toward more deregulation, privatization and so forth
I’d argue that’s actually less likely sans Mitterrand; Rocard was sort of a late 1970s Tony Blair/Bill Clinton of the French left. He was outflanking Mitterrand from the right.

That said, I’d buy the argument that Mitterrand’s long credentials with the left probably made those policies ironically more likely as he had the credibility to argue to left-wingers they were a necessary bitter pill to swallow, which Rocard likely did not
 
Mitterrand dying in 1980 is going to have major repecussions. Likely Rocard becomes the PS candidate in 1981 with the support of Mauroy and Defferre, but thats going to cause a rupture with CERES and other left wing factions. Maybe Rocard appealing to centrists offsets losses of left wing voters, but still probably leaves the PS in a decisively weaker state, perhaps enough to see VGE win a second term
 
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