Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond
- Thread starter KingSweden24
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A quick yet entertaining update, indeed. I love getting into the nitty-gritty of US politics, specially the workings of primaries and how it all shapes up. I'm slightly surprised to see that Idaho Senator Frank Church hasn't entered, being that what prevented him from entering early and building a full campaign in 1976 was the Church Committee, though I guess he had that second Church Committee about CIA abuses in Latin America to worry about according to an earlier update, and this time there probably is not as urgent a need to run when enough liberals of some kind are in the mix. Birch Bayh is another candidate who flamed out in 1976 and had a chance for 1980 ITTL, but with the most probable death of his wife Marvella due to cancer (don't really see how that can be butterflied, maybe delayed), he probably passed and just ran for reelection. Senator Church is probably a natural frontrunner due to his fame due to the investigations against the intelligence agencies and his belief in clean government and reform, but it isn't like he's the only one proposing these ideas, though it'd be interesting to see another LBJ scenario since IOTL Senator Church died of pancreatic cancer in 1984.
Indeed, indeed, among the new frontrunners, Askew is a great candidate (even, or if viewed through 1980 lenses, because of his social moderation) and overall from what I've read a terrific politician and person, cleaning up Florida government in his 8 years (no small task, it is Florida after all), such a Boy Scout that he didn't swear in public and his idea of fun was getting burgers with his wife iirc, and being an early proponent of civil rights as early as the 1950s in the South, where that could easily kill his career. I think he didn't run in 1976 because he felt he owed Floridians the need to serve out his full second term for which he was elected. Need I say more? Nice to see his campaign shaping up, but will this bounce hold? Only time can tell.
Carey is a candidate with a very attractive resumé (saving New York City from the brink) and of course a big bluff Irish Catholic who was chummy with Ted Kennedy, and thus will probably get this crucial endorsement since Dukakis flamed out. His base is the Northeast and the Midwest, but Askew may steal his thunder much like Carter did by taking Iowa and then pressing forward. Lloyd Bentsen is a decent candidate, though imo his pizzazz is a bit overblown by his debate against Dan Quayle IOTL, and much as he is a terrific vice presidential for any non-southern nominee, as a wonkish centrist senator I just don't see him at the top of the ticket, specially after 12 years of conservative policies have fired up the Democratic base. On other news, speaking about Dukakis, I'm not really surprised to see him struggling, since it really was the blowup of Gary Hart's scandals that allowed Dukakis to claim the nomination in 1988 (and the surprisingly thin bench of Democratic candidates in 1988), and yeah, he's a bit too much of a technocrat overall.
Jerry Brown is always a bit of a klutz and an oddball, and thus I'm not surprised that he failed to catch on. Scoop Jackson, much as I may have a grudging respect for the man due to at least being always consistent in his beliefs and fighting for civil rights plus liberal policies straight out of the New Deal, is a man supremely out of touch with his party and a dull campaigner to boot, plus the fact that his age, much like it was for Reagan IOTL, was a serious concern, with Scoop dying of a heart attack in 1983. Also, just knowing that most of his staff were to become the future neocons like Paul Wolfowitz or Richard Perle make me feel a bit grim and repelled by his candidacy, and overall his time has passed since Vietnam. It's truly a shame that Mo Udall's time really was 1976, because by 1980 his Parkinson's has been diagnosed and though popular with the grassroots it's unlikely that he'll catch fire because Carey is a surer bet for liberals (though Muskie was a sure bet in '72 and we all know how that turned out...).
It is an exciting campaign season indeed, to say the least, and it'll get as heated on the Republican side indeed. The Dole campaign is skating on thin ice, Ronald Reagan is there to bash on Fordism with the support of the New Right, but nevertheless, things may not be as smooth for the Gipper as they were IOTL, with Connally in the mix and Donald Rumsfeld trying to stage an insurgent conservative campaign. I'd still bet on Reagan just because of how the Overton Window had shifted to the right in the Republican Party by 1980 and his own personal charisma, coupled with the fact that moderation is not in vogue after Ford's hellish second term. We'll see how it plays out.
Overall, I'm content with what I've read, and you're setting up real well the drama that comes with such a big election. Keep up the good work pal, thank you for the effort.
Indeed, indeed, among the new frontrunners, Askew is a great candidate (even, or if viewed through 1980 lenses, because of his social moderation) and overall from what I've read a terrific politician and person, cleaning up Florida government in his 8 years (no small task, it is Florida after all), such a Boy Scout that he didn't swear in public and his idea of fun was getting burgers with his wife iirc, and being an early proponent of civil rights as early as the 1950s in the South, where that could easily kill his career. I think he didn't run in 1976 because he felt he owed Floridians the need to serve out his full second term for which he was elected. Need I say more? Nice to see his campaign shaping up, but will this bounce hold? Only time can tell.
Carey is a candidate with a very attractive resumé (saving New York City from the brink) and of course a big bluff Irish Catholic who was chummy with Ted Kennedy, and thus will probably get this crucial endorsement since Dukakis flamed out. His base is the Northeast and the Midwest, but Askew may steal his thunder much like Carter did by taking Iowa and then pressing forward. Lloyd Bentsen is a decent candidate, though imo his pizzazz is a bit overblown by his debate against Dan Quayle IOTL, and much as he is a terrific vice presidential for any non-southern nominee, as a wonkish centrist senator I just don't see him at the top of the ticket, specially after 12 years of conservative policies have fired up the Democratic base. On other news, speaking about Dukakis, I'm not really surprised to see him struggling, since it really was the blowup of Gary Hart's scandals that allowed Dukakis to claim the nomination in 1988 (and the surprisingly thin bench of Democratic candidates in 1988), and yeah, he's a bit too much of a technocrat overall.
Jerry Brown is always a bit of a klutz and an oddball, and thus I'm not surprised that he failed to catch on. Scoop Jackson, much as I may have a grudging respect for the man due to at least being always consistent in his beliefs and fighting for civil rights plus liberal policies straight out of the New Deal, is a man supremely out of touch with his party and a dull campaigner to boot, plus the fact that his age, much like it was for Reagan IOTL, was a serious concern, with Scoop dying of a heart attack in 1983. Also, just knowing that most of his staff were to become the future neocons like Paul Wolfowitz or Richard Perle make me feel a bit grim and repelled by his candidacy, and overall his time has passed since Vietnam. It's truly a shame that Mo Udall's time really was 1976, because by 1980 his Parkinson's has been diagnosed and though popular with the grassroots it's unlikely that he'll catch fire because Carey is a surer bet for liberals (though Muskie was a sure bet in '72 and we all know how that turned out...).
It is an exciting campaign season indeed, to say the least, and it'll get as heated on the Republican side indeed. The Dole campaign is skating on thin ice, Ronald Reagan is there to bash on Fordism with the support of the New Right, but nevertheless, things may not be as smooth for the Gipper as they were IOTL, with Connally in the mix and Donald Rumsfeld trying to stage an insurgent conservative campaign. I'd still bet on Reagan just because of how the Overton Window had shifted to the right in the Republican Party by 1980 and his own personal charisma, coupled with the fact that moderation is not in vogue after Ford's hellish second term. We'll see how it plays out.
Overall, I'm content with what I've read, and you're setting up real well the drama that comes with such a big election. Keep up the good work pal, thank you for the effort.
Not OP, but I doubt most incumbent Senators would trade their cushy seat in that all-prestigious chamber in exchange for an ambassadorship. Even Cabinet posts are rarely taken up by Senators, they are much more likely to be bureaucrats in the post.
Let's see, IOTL, Ed Muskie left the Senate to become Carter's Secretary of State once Cyrus Vance resigned in 1980. Later, in 1993, Lloyd Bentsen resigned to become Clinton's Secretary of the Treasury. Hillary Clinton became Obama's Secretary of State in 2009; later, John Kerry replaced her and was appointed from his Senate seat in 2013.
With the exception of Clinton, most of these senators were at the tail end of their careers, maybe not Kerry, but usually only when the Senate gets routine is that they accept offers like these. And these were still big influential posts like Secretary of State, on which foreign policy relies, or Secretary of the Treasury setting up the entire economic ideology and policies of the country according to the administration.
The Big 4 of Cabinet posts are State, Treasury, Defense, and Attorney General. Of those, only one had ever interested Scoop Jackson historically, and that was setting policy as Secretary of Defense. It very much makes sense, because Scoop was a big proponent of military strength and always had an excellent relationship with the troops; IOTL, I believe Nixon offered the post to him and he considered it carefully, but decided to decline. Nixon instead appointed Melvin Laird, a House member from Wisconsin with expertise on Defense policy. If Scoop leaves the Senate, it's because the Democratic President offers him Defense; if not, most probably no dice.
Excellent summary of these various men and thank you so much for such a thorough comment!!
I do think Scoop probably would have taken the Pentagon in ‘81 if offered as a career capstone, tbh
You're very welcome! I love gushing about US politics from that era, a bit weird coming from a foreigner, but reading alternate history material and stuff like the test threads of various users like Yes and Wolfram is what allows me to write in depth (really, those test threads are a treasure trove). You've done a great job.
He probably would, and he's probably the first choice for most nominees, it would take a really 'dovish' candidate for him to not get it, and given that deténte is on shaky ground I doubt a candidate like that would win the primaries. Overall, it is a win-win; Scoop is breathing the Pentagon air blissfully, and the administration would not have to worry about him ratfucking arms treaties and killing them in the Senate for better or worse, as he did to Carter wrt SALT II IOTL, plus, noted environmentalist Gaylord Nelson most probably would become Chairman of the Interior Committee if Scoop leaves his post, since it is unlikely that Nelson loses reelection with 1980 being a Dem wave year.
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Yeah he was a model in his 20s. Dated other models and all the rest of it.
Nazi Space Spy
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Max Baucus left the Senate to be Ambassador to China. It happens, but it certainly is rare.
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@KingSweden24 Assuming Dixie Ray (D) still wins the WA St Governor's Mansion for the Democrats in 1976 in this like she did in real life?
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Speaking of CA Governor Jerry Brown (D): assuming he wins reelection very easily in 1978 despite the Jonestown Massacre scandal?
Will Ryan's expose bring down CA Lieutenant Governor Mervyn Dymally (D) including doom Burke's chances of being CA State Attorney General?
Also assuming George Deukmejian (R) wins the CA State Attorney General's office in 1978 in this timeline like he did in real life 😕
Well, Jonestown happened after the elections. So the controversy and Ryan’s revenge tour don’t start having impacts until now and beyond
(And yeah, despite the mor D environment in 78 the Deuk wins. Curb doesn’t, though; Dymally is still LG)
Well I am looking forward to see how the primaries turn out for sure.
Who are the Republicans running other than Dole and Reagan?
Who are the Republicans running other than Dole and Reagan?
Oh a whole bunch. Baker, Rumsfeld, Phil Crane, Connally as the most notable names
Per request, the next update will be the 1979 pop culture roundup. For sports, I have a Q how everyone prefers the formatting - with American football, the championships are obviously just after the start of the New Year (Super Bowl, college bowl games, etc). Do you prefer to have those included with the year of the roundup or segue into the following year?
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Big question is whether Brown seeks that elusive 3rd term in 1982 that his father got trounced by Reagan in 1966?
I wonder how Pete Wilson (R) is scheming & plotting for statewide office since he's still San Diego Mayor by this time?
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I'm assuming Alabama wins back-to-back national championships very easily in 1978 & 1979 in this timeline as they did in real life.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_football_team
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_football_team
PS: @KingSweden24 I hope you've got my Texas Longhorns doing well with Fred Akers here in this timeline, but can he close the deal in terms of bringing a national championship to Austin? 🤔
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Texas_Longhorns_football_team
1978 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia
1979 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia
1980 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia
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I think it was a throwaway comment but Penn State beat the ‘78 Tide in the Sugar Bowl and thus won the nattyI'm assuming Alabama wins back-to-back national championships very easily in 1978 & 1979 in this timeline as they did in real life.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_football_team
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Alabama_Crimson_Tide_football_team
PS: @KingSweden24 I hope you've got my Texas Longhorns doing well with Fred Akers here in this timeline, but can he close the deal in terms of bringing a national championship to Austin? 🤔
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Texas_Longhorns_football_team
1978 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
1979 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia
1980 Texas Longhorns football team - Wikipedia