Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond

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Lpepi94

Got it, looking forward to when the next post here comes. I love your writing style in this timeline, I feel like I'm watching a Frontline episode.
 
1978 Gubernatorial Elections
  • Index

    • KingSweden24

    1978 Gubernatorial Elections

    Alabama: George Wallace (D, inc.) term-limited; Bill Baxley (D) Elected [1]
    Alaska: Jay Hammond (R, inc.) Re-Elected
    Arizona: Bruce Babbitt (D, inc.) Re-Elected
    Arkansas: David Pryor (D, inc.) retired to run for Senate; Bill Clinton (D) Elected
    California: Jerry Brown (D, inc.) Re-Elected
    Colorado: Richard Lamm (D, inc.) Re-Elected
    Connecticut: Ella Grasso (D, inc) Re-Elected
    Florida: Reubin Askew (D, inc). term-limited; Bob Graham (D) Elected
    Georgia: George Busbee (D, inc) Re-Elected
    Hawaii: George Ariyoshi (D, inc) Re-Elected
    Idaho: Cecil Andrus (D, inc) retired; John Evans (D) Elected [2]
    Illinois: James Thompson (R, inc) Re-Elected
    Iowa: Robert Ray (R, inc) Re-Elected
    Kansas: Robert F. bennett (R, inc) DEFEATED by James Carlin (D) (D+1) [3]
    Maine: James Longley (I, inc) retired; Joseph E. Brennan (D) Elected (D+2)
    Maryland: Blair Lee III (D, inc) Re-Elected [4]
    Massachusetts: Michael Dukakis (D, inc)Re-Elected [5]
    Michigan: William Milliken (R, inc) Re-Elected [6]
    Minnesota: Wendell Anderson (D, inc) retired to run for Senate; Warren Spannaus (D) Elected [7]
    Nebraska: James Exon (D, inc) term limited; Gerald Whelan (D) Elected [8]
    Nevada: Mike O'Callaghan (D, inc) retired; Harry Reid (D) Elected [8]
    New Hampshire: Meldrim Thompson (R, inc) DEFEATED by Hugh Gallen (D) {D+3)
    New Mexico: Jerry Apodaca (D, inc) term-limited; Bruce King (D) Elected
    New York: Hugh Carey (D, inc) Re-Elected
    Ohio: Jim Rhodes (R, inc) DEFEATED by Dick Celeste (D) (D+4) [8]
    Oklahoma: David Boren (D, inc) term-limited; George Nigh (D) Elected
    Oregon: Robert Straub (D, inc) DEFEATED by Vic Atiyeh (R) (R+1)
    Pennsylvania: Milton Shapp (D, inc) Term-limited; Arlen Specter (R) Elected (R+2) [9]
    Rhode Island: J. Joseph Garrahy (D, inc) Re-Elected
    South Carolina: James B. Edwards (R, inc) term-limited; Richard Riley (D) Elected (D+5)
    South Dakota: Richard Kneip (D, inc) term-limited; Richard Janklow (R) Elected (R+3)
    Tennessee: Ray Blaton (D, inc) term-limited; Richard Fulton (D) Elected [8]
    Texas: Dolph Briscoe (D, inc) DEFEATED in primary; John Luke Hill (D) Elected [8]
    Vermont: Richard Snelling (R, inc) Re-Elected
    Wisconsin: Martin Schreiber (D, inc) Re-Elected [8]
    Wyoming: Edgar Herschler (D, inc) Re-Elected [10]

    Democrats have 39 mansions, GOP has 11.

    [1] Baxley does not lose to Fob James in the primary
    [2] Same end result, but Andrus was of course not named to the Carter admin here
    [3] Same end result, but of course different context ITTL seeing as how Democrats flipped both of Kansas' Senate seats, too
    [4] Lee survives his primary with Harry Hughes, which also has the effect of making Steny Hoyer his LG...
    [5] Dukakis not defeated in his primary thanks to a conservative backlash...
    [6] But only barely
    [7] Major change here, of course. Spannaus (the AG) defeates Perpich (the LG) who doesn't have a leg up due to succeeding Anderson, and there's no "Minnesota Massacre" and the DFL keeps both houses of the legislature
    [8] Different result than OTL
    [9] Here we have Specter winning the GOP primary as Thornburgh is presumably still at DoJ under Ford
    [10] Same result as OTL, where he was reelected by less than a percent, but what a wild result by today's standards!
     
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  • Index

    • KingSweden24

    Not sure if I covered the 1977 gubernatorial elections...? If I forgot to, that obviously complicates Andrew Miller becoming Senator of Virginia and means Democrats have 40 (!!) Governorships rather than 39, which was already an all-time high since the late 1930s
     
    Electric Monk

    Electric Monk

    A very tiny note because Wiki also gets this wrong. Mike O’Callaghan wasn’t term limited, as sitting Governor he was exempt from the newly passed law. It would take some effort to get the man to go for a third term he didn’t really want, but it’s not impossible with the right Republican…

    Anyway minor nitpick aside I remain enjoying the timeline :)
     
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    KingSweden24

    Electric Monk said:
    A very tiny note because Wiki also gets this wrong. Mike O’Callaghan wasn’t term limited, as sitting Governor he was exempt from the newly passed law. It would take some effort to get the man to go for a third term he didn’t really want, but it’s not impossible with the right Republican…

    Anyway minor nitpick aside I remain enjoying the timeline :)
    Click to expand...
    Well shoot! Ah well. Still works out for my excuse to have a Governor Harry Reid...

    Also, I'll use this as my opportunity to do a minor retcon - Andrew P. Miller was successfully elected Governor of the Old Dominion in 1977 and so Virginia's Dem Senator elected in 1978 is William Spong returning to office after a six-year interregnum
     
    1978 US House of Representatives Election
  • Index

    • KingSweden24

    1978 US House of Representatives Election

    Will include only flipped seats and notable races.

    AL-2: Wendell Mitchell (D) defeats Bill Dickinson (R, inc) D+1 [1]
    AR-2: Benton Douglas Brandon Jr. (D) defeats Ed Bethune (R) [1]
    CA-2: Norma Bork (D) defeats Doug Clausen (R, inc) D+2 [1]
    CA-4: Vic Fazio (D) defeats Albert Dehr (R, inc) D+3
    CA-14: John J. McFall (D, inc) defeats Norm Shumway (R) [1]
    CA-17: John Hans Krebs (D, inc) defeats Chip Pashayan (R) [1]
    CA-27: Carey Peck (D) defeats Bob Dornan (R, inc) D+4 [1]
    CO-2: Tim Wirth (D) defeats Ed Scott (R, inc) D+5
    CO-3: Ray Kogovsek (D) defeats Mel Takaki (R, inc) D+6
    CT-5: William Ratchford (D) defeats George Guidera (R) D+7
    FL-5: David R. Best (D) defeats Richard Kelly (R, inc) D+8 [1]
    FL-9: Bill Nelson (D) defeats Ed Gurney (R) D+9
    FL-12: Edward Stack (D) defeats J. Herbert Burke (R) D+10
    GA-5: Andrew Young (D) defeats Thomas Bowles (R) [2]
    GA-6: Virginia Shapard (D) defeats Newt Gingrich (R) [1][3]
    IL-3: Mike Madigan (D) defeats Robert Dunne (R) [4]
    IL-22: Terry Bruce (D) defeats Dan Crane (R) [1]
    KS-2: James Jeffries (R) elected R+1
    KY-6: John Breckinridge (D) defeats Larry Hopkins (R) [1]
    LA-1: Bob Livingston (R) defeats John Moreau (D, inc) R+2
    ME-2: Markham Gartley (D) defeats Olympia Snowe (R) D+11 [1]
    MD-8: Michael Barnes (D) defeats Newton Steers (R, inc) D+12
    MI-3: Howard Wolpe (D) defeats Garry Brown (R, inc) D+13
    MI-5: Dale Robert Sprik (D) defeats Harold Sawyer (R, inc) D+14 [1] [5]
    MI-10: Donald J. Albosta (D) defeats Elford Albin Cederberg (R, inc) [6] D+15
    MN-5: Donald Fraser (D) defeats Mike Till (R) [7]
    MN-7: Robert Bergland (D) defeats Arlan Strangeland (R) [1] [2]
    NJ-9: Nick Mastorelli (D) defeats Harry Hollenbeck (R, inc) D+16 [1]
    NY-1: William Carney (R) defeats John Randolph (D) R+3
    NY-18: Ed Koch (D) reelected [8]
    NY-23: Bruce Caputo (R) defeats Richard Brodsky (D) [1] [9]
    OH-3: Tony Hall (D) defeats Dudley Kircher (R) D+17 [1]
    OH-19: Charles Carney (D) defeats Lyle Williams (R) [1]
    PA-4: Joshua Eilberg (D) defeats Charles Dougherty (R) [1]
    PA-15: Fred Rooney (D) defeats Donald Ritter (R) [1]
    PA-23: Joseph Ammerman (D) defeats William Clinger (R) [1]
    SC-4: Max Heller (D) defeats Carroll Campbell (R) [1]
    SD-1: Tom Daschle (D) defeats Leo Thorsness (R) D+18
    TX-19: Kent Hance (D) defeats Jim Reese (R) [10]
    TX-21: Tom Loeffler (R) defeats Nelson Wolff (D) R+4
    TX-22: Robert Gammage (D) defeats Ron Paul (R, inc) D+19 [1] [11]
    VA-2: Owen Pickett (D) defeats George Whitehurst (R, inc) D+20 [1]
    WA-2: Al Swift (D) defeats John Nance Garner (R, inc) D+21
    WA-7: Brock Adams (D) defeats John Cunningham (R) [2]
    WI-8: Toby Roth (R) defeats Robert John Cornell (D, inc) R+5
    WY-AL: Teno Roncalio (D) reelected [1] [12]

    Seats Before Election - 279D, 156R
    Seats After Election - 295D, 140R

    Net Change: D+16

    Speaker of the House - Tip O'Neill (D-MA)
    House Majority Leader - Jim Wright (D-TX)
    House Majority Whip - John Brademas (D-IN)
    House Minority Leader - John Rhodes (R-AZ)
    House Minority Whip - Robert Michel (R-IL)

    Despite the atrocious national polling environment for the GOP, House pickups for the Democrats are in fact rather muted, seeing as they already hold a dominant position across the South and are starting to hit their realistic ceiling in terms of potential target seats and fall short in a few seats they had hoped to flip in the Northeast and Midwest, but they regain some seats lost in 1976 and now have the largest majority since 1964 in the House.

    [1] Results differ from OTL
    [2] Byproduct of not being named to the Carter Admin
    [3] A BIG one, to say the least...
    [4] Anyone with a familiarity with Illinois politics will get a kick out of this one. Dunno if Madigan lives in Marty Russo's old district but getting him into Congress is still kinda fun! (If that's even the right word)
    [5] Gerald Ford's old seat, for those who like irony; also one of the closest races of 1978 IOTL
    [6] What a name!
    [7] Lack of a Minnesota Massacre shakes up who stays and who goes in the MN House lineup
    [8] He's not Mayor, after all!
    [9] Caputo doesn't run for LG of New York in 1978, seeing it as an uphill battle and choosing to stay in Congress instead
    [10] Dubya having lost the primary ITTL to Reese after being tarred with his father's unpopularity on the right
    [11] rematch of their 1976 race; Paul baaaarely beat Gammage in 1978
    [12] Dick Cheney, after all, has a day job at the White House

    (I came close to butterflying Geraldine Ferraro's Congressional career in having her lose the 1978 primary to Thomas Manton, but decided not to... gives me options in case I want to do something with her later)
     
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    • KingSweden24

    Nazi Space Spy said:
    I don’t think we’ve heard the last of The Good Doctor somehow.

    Or maybe we have. But I hope not.
    Click to expand...
    We’ll see! IOTL Dean actually had a pretty interesting political career; he was only convinced to run for LG of Vermont because the office was basically a sinecure and he could continue practicing medicine as his day job. Snelling dying unexpectedly changed all that; he was originally a very reluctant politician.

    (it’s also interesting to me how Dean’s 04 campaign was seen as so liberal as to be gadflyish and unelectable but if transposed to today he’d be on the rightmost flank of the Democratic Party. Imagine telling one of the Deaniacs that!)
     

    Nazi Space Spy

    Banned
    KingSweden24 said:
    We’ll see! IOTL Dean actually had a pretty interesting political career; he was only convinced to run for LG of Vermont because the office was basically a sinecure and he could continue practicing medicine as his day job. Snelling dying unexpectedly changed all that; he was originally a very reluctant politician.

    (it’s also interesting to me how Dean’s 04 campaign was seen as so liberal as to be gadflyish and unelectable but if transposed to today he’d be on the rightmost flank of the Democratic Party. Imagine telling one of the Deaniacs that!)
    Click to expand...
    By the Good Doctor, I actually meant Ron Paul, but Dean's not the worst. Both are anti-war which was/is cool.
     
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