Mitterand can die of cancer, as he almost did before remission, if you want him off the stage.
That's a thought! I thought his cancer was later on, though - was it ongoing in the 1970s?
Bicentennial Man: Ford '76 and Beyond
- Thread starter KingSweden24
- Start date
That's a thought! I thought his cancer was later on, though - was it ongoing in the 1970s?
Problem is that I believe it's been kinda clear that he isn't a communist and that this was the result of them screwing up and pushing him with them. I get the feeling they won't be able to spin that off
His doctors said 6 months in 1980-1981. It’s doable.
Say hello to Michel Roccard and less wild swings in French domestic politics
Very doable, in that case. Thanks for the suggestion - this is exactly the kind of chaotic hand grenade I love to toss into my TL's. A no-Mitterand France would be very, very interesting.
(Though it would deny the world a man so aggressively French that his wife and mistress attended his funeral together)
To further on this - if Mitterand dies early enough in 1980, that's either opening the door to a Michel Rocard Presidency (the likeliest outcome IMO) or a d'Estaing reelection, either of which is of course a very different beast. Lots to consider!
Well yes, but the fact that he's getting what appears to be military support from communists isn't going to be lost on the public either. It doesn't really even require much spin because they don't even need to paint him personally as a communist. Just the fact of a regime supported by communists attacking American soil would have a good half of the country demanding a Reagan-esque return to the arms race. Of course though, the reaction will be dependent on how Ford handles it and how it develops.
Problem is that there is the hauntings of Vietnam and the questioning of how is a part of Panama theirs? That and it wouldn't accomplish much in the long run
Huele a Quemado
"...we were determined... there was no way the Americans would keep the Canal. We had shown force, that we were willing to die to end the occupation of Panamanian soil, and now we would show that we would rather destroy their precious Canal than let them keep it."
- Manuel Noriega, Chief of Intelligence for Omar Torrijos - Date Uncertain
"...February 1st, 1978 is arguably a day as critical to understanding world history as December 7, 1941. It was the moment we had feared, when the pressure finally got to Panama's in-over-their-heads leaders and they did the unthinkable - sabotaging the Canal. By the beginning of the previous week we had substantial forces deployed to Colombia and Honduras, we had a third carrier in the Pacific, and Panama is not as big as Vietnam. There's no room for a Ho Chi Minh trail, let's just put it that way. Clayton was back under our control thanks in large part to the Canal Zone garrison having held out and worn down the pretty outgunned Panamanians, as was Howard, but Panamanian Defense Forces and irregulars still held Gatun and there was a strict "don't hit the locks" policy for our bombers, and they had Cocoli as well.
Where they got that much dynamite I have no idea, but Torrijos ordered something called "Huele a Quemado," which in Spanish means "smells like its burning." And oh boy, did things burn. They opened the Gatun and Miraflores locks all the way, which drained the canal to north and south. Pedro Miguel we still had in our possession which meant that we weren't draining anything southwards from past that point, but after opening the locks they then detonated explosives within the lock contraptions, destroying the doors and making it very difficult to repair. So Miraflores Lake and Gatun Lake were now going south and north, respectively. Then they opened the spillways on the Gatun Dam all the way and set off explosives in the gates there, too, making them virtually impossible to close. Thankfully the Russians hadn't smuggled them an H-bomb or anything like that, because there's no amount of TNT on earth that can blow a hole in the dam, but they let the water go over the top, which is bad enough. So they're draining the Gatun Lake, a man-made lake that's the core of the Canal and kilometers long and wide, in two directions, absolutely flooding the Caribbean with freshwater. We got a battalion on the ground in Fort Gulick, which of course we had brilliantly abandoned in 1972 when we shut down the School of the Americas, and tried to move on the two sites but it was a nasty firefight and the damage was done. Within hours, Gatun Lake had lost three meters of draft alone..."
- Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
"...when you think of the 1970s, there were really two major supply shocks that completely and totally upended the Western economy. The oil shock of 1973, and the Panama shock of 1978. The Arab embargo changed our understanding of cheap, easy and plentiful energy, even if the global supply didn't change that drastically overall, it was the *perception* of supply change. Panama was way worse, though it impacted the Western hemisphere much more than Europe, which of course is considerably more dependent on Suez. The Panama War essentially cut off one of the most critical arteries for trade in the world, and specifically for trade from Asia to the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States. Oil spiked in price again, everything spiked in price, inflation was now even worse than before because everything was suddenly more expensive, merely from the panic of the thought of a supply crunch. Thursday, February 2nd - the day after Operation Huele a Quemado occurred - was the worst day in Wall Street trading since 1929. It was actually a worse one-day rout percentage wise than either of the two infamous days in October of 1929, 13.3% in one day, and down an additional 6.7% the following Friday. 20% of market value in an already-weak economy in two days. Over the weekend we made sure to put out a bulletin that announced that the Ford administration was committed to the rapid repair and reopening of the Canal, which of course helped soothe markets into a minor recovery Monday and Tuesday before we slid into a long bear market with another 25% shaved off by the start of the second quarter in a long, slow drudge. In all, 1978 ended with equity indexes down from year start over 55%. I think it was 55.8% exactly, if I remember my statistics right. And the inflation, my God, you thought it was bad before..."
- Former CEA Chair Alan Greenspan, "From Crisis to Crisis: The American Economy in the 1970s"
- Manuel Noriega, Chief of Intelligence for Omar Torrijos - Date Uncertain
"...February 1st, 1978 is arguably a day as critical to understanding world history as December 7, 1941. It was the moment we had feared, when the pressure finally got to Panama's in-over-their-heads leaders and they did the unthinkable - sabotaging the Canal. By the beginning of the previous week we had substantial forces deployed to Colombia and Honduras, we had a third carrier in the Pacific, and Panama is not as big as Vietnam. There's no room for a Ho Chi Minh trail, let's just put it that way. Clayton was back under our control thanks in large part to the Canal Zone garrison having held out and worn down the pretty outgunned Panamanians, as was Howard, but Panamanian Defense Forces and irregulars still held Gatun and there was a strict "don't hit the locks" policy for our bombers, and they had Cocoli as well.
Where they got that much dynamite I have no idea, but Torrijos ordered something called "Huele a Quemado," which in Spanish means "smells like its burning." And oh boy, did things burn. They opened the Gatun and Miraflores locks all the way, which drained the canal to north and south. Pedro Miguel we still had in our possession which meant that we weren't draining anything southwards from past that point, but after opening the locks they then detonated explosives within the lock contraptions, destroying the doors and making it very difficult to repair. So Miraflores Lake and Gatun Lake were now going south and north, respectively. Then they opened the spillways on the Gatun Dam all the way and set off explosives in the gates there, too, making them virtually impossible to close. Thankfully the Russians hadn't smuggled them an H-bomb or anything like that, because there's no amount of TNT on earth that can blow a hole in the dam, but they let the water go over the top, which is bad enough. So they're draining the Gatun Lake, a man-made lake that's the core of the Canal and kilometers long and wide, in two directions, absolutely flooding the Caribbean with freshwater. We got a battalion on the ground in Fort Gulick, which of course we had brilliantly abandoned in 1972 when we shut down the School of the Americas, and tried to move on the two sites but it was a nasty firefight and the damage was done. Within hours, Gatun Lake had lost three meters of draft alone..."
- Former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
"...when you think of the 1970s, there were really two major supply shocks that completely and totally upended the Western economy. The oil shock of 1973, and the Panama shock of 1978. The Arab embargo changed our understanding of cheap, easy and plentiful energy, even if the global supply didn't change that drastically overall, it was the *perception* of supply change. Panama was way worse, though it impacted the Western hemisphere much more than Europe, which of course is considerably more dependent on Suez. The Panama War essentially cut off one of the most critical arteries for trade in the world, and specifically for trade from Asia to the East Coast and Gulf Coast of the United States. Oil spiked in price again, everything spiked in price, inflation was now even worse than before because everything was suddenly more expensive, merely from the panic of the thought of a supply crunch. Thursday, February 2nd - the day after Operation Huele a Quemado occurred - was the worst day in Wall Street trading since 1929. It was actually a worse one-day rout percentage wise than either of the two infamous days in October of 1929, 13.3% in one day, and down an additional 6.7% the following Friday. 20% of market value in an already-weak economy in two days. Over the weekend we made sure to put out a bulletin that announced that the Ford administration was committed to the rapid repair and reopening of the Canal, which of course helped soothe markets into a minor recovery Monday and Tuesday before we slid into a long bear market with another 25% shaved off by the start of the second quarter in a long, slow drudge. In all, 1978 ended with equity indexes down from year start over 55%. I think it was 55.8% exactly, if I remember my statistics right. And the inflation, my God, you thought it was bad before..."
- Former CEA Chair Alan Greenspan, "From Crisis to Crisis: The American Economy in the 1970s"
Well, I did not expect that to happen to say the least. Looks like it's gonna get really nuts and now I imagine that things are gona get really interesting.
I imagine that this will lead to a larger demand for government intervention and hence the lefties can go really freakin hard here with that.
Additionally, I could see a massive stimulation needed for public transporation. Another might be the necessity for electric vehicles or super fuel-efficient ones, augmented by the need of replacing coal with nuclear power. Basically, it's gonna be the time for bold solutions. Meanwhile, I imagine Central American and a few South American neighbors are gonna be like "god fucking damn it, you just had to, didn't you?" to Panama.
I imagine that this will lead to a larger demand for government intervention and hence the lefties can go really freakin hard here with that.
Additionally, I could see a massive stimulation needed for public transporation. Another might be the necessity for electric vehicles or super fuel-efficient ones, augmented by the need of replacing coal with nuclear power. Basically, it's gonna be the time for bold solutions. Meanwhile, I imagine Central American and a few South American neighbors are gonna be like "god fucking damn it, you just had to, didn't you?" to Panama.
I hope you touch on southeast asian politics soon because its pretty interesting (with the cambodian genocide and the subsuquebt vietnamese invasion,indonesian invasion of east timor etc) and about panama this turns out to be very interesting and does this mean the drug thing in panama went under due to the war?
The “Panama Shock” is going to be the big economic crisis of the late 70s moreso than the Iranian Revolution ITTL, not to get too far ahead.
Oh yeah, Torrijos is not gonna be popular with a lot of Latin Americans
I’ve seen it suggested that a Ford 2nd term admin might actually recognize Pol Pot’s regime... not sure if I but that personally but there it is.
The cocaine business isn’t going anywhere, it’s just going to have a different bent
Yeah, it makes sense, hence why radical solutions are going to be needed. Remaining New Dealers, their acolytes and their successors are going to see this as their main opportunity to do further reforms to help fix the economy. Ted Kennedy and Mo Udall are gonna rallying forces like no tomorrow.
Torrijos will definitely get his issues, but I also suspect this will be a large backlash toward the Republicans of this time. After all, they would see the whole escalation and trouble as a failure for them to handle it, especially since following what happened with Nixon, they would be less sympathetic. They don't have much ground to be defensive about it.
I don't think he'd do that regaring Pol Pot...
Hmmm... regarding the drug trade, perhaps they reverse course on the Nixonian harsh stance of dealing with drug usage as a way to save money since harsher policing would not help matters during this panicky time.
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Ah well so panama will still be a drug haven also i hope you touch on the cartels of the 80s and also does air highjacking still a majot threat ittl? Sonce otl around that time period air highjacking is pretty common alongside plane bombing like the lockerbie and dawson field
I don’t think there’s been a POD sufficient to undo the enthusiasm for hijackings that was common among late 70s terrorists quite yet
Hey now, what about poor Raffaele Minichiello ripped off by the US Army and forced to hijack a plane to see his dying father in Italy? The passengers were deeply disappointed they weren’t going to Cuba lol. Alas before your POD though
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Could Sithole having been turned, play a larger role? He and senator Chirau sort of get thrown in the ash can, by the brief hope of Muzorewa, and then Mugabe.
Sure. I’m not familiar enough with Zimbabwean history to make an informed comment of how Sithole could outmaneuver Muzorewa - what did it boil down to, international prominence? Ethnic rivalry within ZANU?
Sithole had been the former head of ZANU, who through a combination of religious conversion and the desire to avoid a harsh prison sentence, began to work within the system. Muzorewa had been a founder of the African National Council. I believe international prominence did play a large role. Because Rhodesia did have 17 African members of its House of Assembly Jeremiah Chirau, rose to importance within that system. I believe the three moderate leaders, need to avoid internecine quarrels.
Interesting. I’ll have to read more about that since “successful Zimbabwean transition” is one of the changes we’ll see here so understanding the various players will be part of that
(We’re also going to see South Africa have a not so successful transition, with coinciding knock on effects)
If its too bad in South Africa, you might see a reversal of OTL where a ton of the white population of SA flees to Zimbabwe. Which could cause significant changes because there are quite a few whites in SA, and not very many people at all in Zimbabwe. In such a scenario the white population of Zimbabwe could go from being around 2-3% to 10-20% of the population in a relatively short time frame. I have no idea what effects this would bring to both countries, but off the top of my head if its relatively wealthy whites from South Africa then it could lead to a surge of investment into Zimbabwe and result in a much, much richer country.