Between East and West: A Post-War Independent State of Croatia

Ne ostavljaj me - “Dont leave me”

Tito.jpg

Josip Broz sighed as he sat at his office in Belgrade. The relatively spartan furnishings contrasted with his grandiose desk and chair, decadent in their French style. Piled on either side of him were dossiers on the various demands of state. Now he could see why they called it “serving” as Prime Minister. In his tiredness, he drifted off in daydreams of his childhood in Kumrovec, on the Croatian-Slovenian border. He remembered as a youth playing in the Sutla river, laughing with the other children. The veteran revolutionary leader continued to cast his mind back, before the wars, to those weeks where he’d stay with his mother’s parents in the Styrian village of Podsreda. There he would explore the hills, exploring and loitering about the Romanesque castle to the south. His grandmother would scold him for his long absences, but he’d always make it up to her by completing chores whilst she attended the market on a Sunday.


He didn’t notice as a child, but as he had grown, the young Josip Broz realised why he was so often sent to see his grandparents. His father Franjo struggled to grow much on his ten acres. As a child, Tito hadn’t seemed all that talented either. Whilst his grandmother had taught him to play the piano, he did poorly at school and didn’t progress beyond primary school. Tito then thought back to slightly more bitter memories. He remembered the tears welling up in his father’s eyes as the ageing Franjo lamented that he couldn’t afford to send his son to America. It is always a more terrible thing than it seems for a boy of fifteen to see his father cry. Tito had instead to make ends meet by himself, working in various parts of Croatia, Slovenia and the Czech lands. In May 1913 he had been conscripted into the army of Austria-Hungary. In the Great War he had ended up in a POW camp. In Russia he participated in the revolution and had afterwards returned home and become a professional revolutionary. Resisting the fascist invasions, he had then led the Partisans to victory over the Germans, with the aid of the British and the Russians.


Tito was relieved that the fascists were done with, but resented the total victory that was seemingly snatched from his grasp by the British invasion. His beloved Kumrovec, and idyllic Podsreda, should be part of the Yugoslav nation. His people were weak divided, but strongest when operating as one. Tito had long thought about this, and had come to only one course of action. The British response, whilst sufficient, had been reluctant in Greece. Now the Americans were withdrawing troops from Europe en masse. Tito still enjoyed a positive relationship with his Soviet comrades. Josip Broz turned and looked up at the portrait of Stalin that looked over his desk. It was soon time to carry the revolution to the Julian Alps, the veteran revolutionary determined. It would soon be time to complete the process of liberation.
 
I'll be blunt - I like this, but the whole concept is actually some kind of mess; handwavium can't begin to describe it.
Once Churchill got his support for this kind of odd NDH state on, there is literally no reason Slovenia would bite the hand that freed her and go Red. Adding basically all of the Združena Slovenija (because you make it sound basically like 95% of it) makes no sense for anybody involved, but especially for Churchill - while Austria can still be contained/neutered, he's just handed Italy to the Communist Party now that, instead of weaving a dance on the Trieste issue, it can go on forward and crow that this is the true face of the evil Allies all along; and a great many will agree. You're also misinterpreting the aims of Yugoslav support to Slovene claims; it wasn't a necessity to keep Slovenes on board, just the natural consequence of Tito's massive prestige at being able to kick the Germans out basically on his own.
Lastly, while Italy was of course on the Axis side, it tried defecting to the Allies and they needed it on the Western camp, thus resulting in a somewhat mild peace (as opposed to the Germans).
 
I don't think that a Slovene annexation of trieste are going to make any big difference from Italian politics. Also taking a bite of Carinthia won't make any big difference either.

I expect that the Slovenes will be begin a "population exchange" with Italy, Austria and Hungary, getting rid of few people too connected with the old regimes and general loudmouth, before giving up. Trieste will likely see the largest outflow, but that will to large extent be people who have settler there under Italian rule.

Slovene Carinthia will likely end up (stay) rather poor and undeveloped (at least until in the first many decades, until the EU allow integration of the economy with Austria), thanks to the mountain range which split it from the rest of Slovenia, which will likely mean that it keep a small German majority or large minority and it own little separatist movement. We will likely see a few bombs in the 50ties until the German get some kind of limited co-official status in the area.

Trieste on the other hand as the port of Slovenia will likely become a major industrial hub and see a influx of Slovenian/Istrian Croat workers and end up bigger than the capital. I think that Italians will still make up 50% of the population by modern day. The Istrian coastline will likely become a major area for vacation homes for inland Slovenes, the result will likely be that the Istrian Italians go the same way as the Frisians and Danes on Sylt.
 
I don't think that a Slovene annexation of trieste are going to make any big difference from Italian politics.

Considering it took until 1975 for Italy to normalize the situation via treaty, with Trieste gained in all but de jure, and it was the product of a single person rather than an official government policy, and it was subject to harsh criticizing - I don't see how it could not have had a huge difference. Granted, not necessarily pro-Red, but the offered scenario is all for the Communists gaining traction.

As for Trieste, I wholly agree the slow death of the port will be averted in Slovene hands.
 
Also, I would note that whilst the city of Trieste was never majority Slovene, the neighbouring countryside was, and population transfers were seen as a legitimate means of solving population disputes during this time. I mean, look at how the West just accepted the expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia and from Poland's new territories. Since the Italians had been in the Axis too, they're in a similar position.

But Italy, or at least a part of her as also had co-belligerant status and frankly Italian due to her strategic position and economic potential hold ten times the value Slovenia can hope to have...and while the communist had a lot less tie to nationalism, they will milk the event for all his value as it will not be a 'little' thing for the italians, so supporting the Slovens over the italian it's not that automatic
 
Mi o vuku, a vuk na vrata - "While we were talking about the wolf, he came to our doorstep"

A twig snapped behind the back of Zlatan Begović, startling the young Muslim. His comrades, most a little older, and with more combat experience, barely reacted. "Zlatan, you are far too twitchy, boy. I'm too worried to bring firewood back to the camp, in case you mistake me for Ustaše and shoot me!" the old Serb Goran complained. The wizened peasant continued "The Križari wouldn't dare follow us this far. This is Communist territory. They're scared of Tito. They know it's only a matter of time before he crushes them". Goran was a good example of the weakness of the old adage about age equalling wisdom. He looked as old as the hills, although that was caused more by a hard living growing just about nothing in Eastern Herzegovina most of his life. But unlike most old Serbs, he was kind-hearted. Most would call Zlatan an "insolent little Turk". But in the Partisans that didn't matter. Zlatan was the only Bosnian Muslim in the platoon. The rest were Croats, Serbs and Montenegrins, also some Muslims from Sandžak. To the Communists, your faith or your ethnicity was meaningless, not even secondary to their most valued attributes: martial competence and stalwart opposition to the "fascist-imperialist-bourgeois menace". "Maybe you're right" said Zlatan. Soon thereafter the campfire was extinguished and the Partisans dozed off to sleep.

Zlatan was woken in the middle of the night by the blast of a grenade, Goran's yelling, and the sound of gunfire. Bullets flew above Zlatan's head, tearing through the fabric that composed the thin tent. The boy grabbed his rifle and jumped out of the tent, to find a Križari death squad rampaging through the camp. Goran's body lay face down next to the campfire, a chunk tore out of his side, presumably by the grenade blast. Jovan and Grgor were cut down by the fascists' submachineguns. Zlatan aimed and fired his rifle at one of the grey-clad paramilitaries, felling him. Then he noticed the deep bark of dogs and the fear in his heart metamorphosed into outright panic. A sharp pain shot up his arm as one of the Alsatian dogs sank its fangs into forearm. More snapping jaws tore at his legs, dragging him down. Zlatan desperately tried to protect his neck and head, but could do nothing but writhe in agony as one of the canines bit down on his groin. Soon the dogs were at his neck, and as Zlatan gasped for breath through the hole torn in his throat, he remembered his mother.

===

t34-85_a-1_3_zpsfbcbefdc.jpg

Yugoslav T-34/85 in parade through Sarajevo

On March 17th, 1946, the uneasy peace that had descended over Europe after the defeat of the Third Reich was shattered, as Yugoslav tanks crossed the Drina and attacked deep into the heart of Croatia. Josip Broz, the Communist leader of Yugoslavia, had declared the "Unification War". Seeking to unify the pre-war territory of Yugoslavia (as well as the more recent acquisitions by Slovenia), Tito sought the complete and utter destruction of what he saw as the "illegitimate" governments of Croatia and Slovenia. Tito also claimed that his invasion was a response to imperialist aggression, citing an incident where Križari paramilitaries had crossed the border of the NDH in pursuit of Partisans from ZAVNOH, the Croatian anti-fascist underground. Initial skirmishes quickly turned into a rout. Sarajevo was under siege within six days, and captured in three. Whole sectors of Central and Eastern Bosnia collapsed as Croatian troops were overwhelmed by the heavily-armed Yugoslav Army, assisted by guerrillas from ZAVNOH which harried small Croatian infantry detachments and supply lines. In order to defend the capital, the Croatians concentrated their military resources in the northern plain, hoping that existing forces in Vukovar would hold off the Yugoslav Army for long enough that the Domobran could mount an effective defence of the plains. Such hope proved ill-founded, with the city captured in two weeks. Yugoslav forces surged forward, crossing much of the plain. Soon, it appeared, Yugoslav T-34s would reach the outskirts of Zagreb...

The international community soon responded. Whilst the United Nations denounced the invasion as "unprovoked Yugoslav aggression", the Soviets utilised their veto on the security council to prevent UN military action against Yugoslavia. Meanwhile, however, Stalin was furious. The Kremlin sought peace in Europe, at least for now, and whilst they sought to press the West on such issues as the future of Germany, the 'Man of Steel' didn't take kindly to what he viewed as insubordination. Although reports had flooded in from Belgrade that Tito sought to commence miliary action, it was presumed that he would ask for permission before attacking Croatia and Slovenia. The West quickly responded, with President Truman ordering the creation of a multilateral force under American leadership to intervene. Whilst troops from the United States, the British Commonwealth and numerous other countries mobilised, the Croatians were preparing a defensive line between Bjelovar and Sisak. It was here that they hoped to stop the Red Tide once and for all.
 
Hey, nice to see this still going on. Well, I guess the Yugoslav are in for a nasty butt-kicking... how is the eastern camp holding up, anyways? What with unprovoked aggression, and what about rhetoric? I would actually expect them to crow that the evil West is helping their fascist puppets in Croatia invade poor, free Yugoslavia.
 
Hey, nice to see this still going on. Well, I guess the Yugoslav are in for a nasty butt-kicking... how is the eastern camp holding up, anyways? What with unprovoked aggression, and what about rhetoric? I would actually expect them to crow that the evil West is helping their fascist puppets in Croatia invade poor, free Yugoslavia.

The general rhetoric is that British (and by extension, the United States') support for the coup was a means to maintain an anti-Communist structure that operates against the interests of the Yugoslav people. They are crowing that the Fascists in Croatia are still alive and kicking and trying to take the fight to the rest of Yugoslavia.
 

Vuru

Banned
Tito, a massive antiserb, in control of pretty much Serbia? This can only end well, he needs to grab Krajina and East Bosnia or esle i won't be surprised if Stalin scapegoats his ass
 
So will the Allies ship surplus arms and send advisers to help the Croats? Will the Soviets stop supplying the Yugoslavs?
 
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