Alexander Jagiellon was't very fortunate ruler, so let's improve his reign a bit.
ITTL Alexander is more capable, healthlier and more lucky. Let's start with his marriage: Helen of Moscow gives him a son in 1498 and dies in childbirth (Alexander would not consider it fortunate event, he really loved his wife, but objectively it would be better for him in the long run, Helen's Orthodox faith was obstacle for Alexander when he was candidate to Polish throne-Queen mother and Catholic hierarchy despised her).
-In 1501 Alexander does not behave like IOTL, when he left Lithuania in hurry taking Lithuania's treasure to Poland during war with Moscow and abandining his allies-Grand Master of Livonian branch of Teutonic Order and Khan of Golden Orde. Grand Master and Khan were meant to attack Moscow from north and south, while Lithuanians would take care of the center. IOTL Tatars and Teutonic Knights achieved nothing and had to retreat because Lithuanians, who were meant to be main force, abandoned them-their ruler was busy in Poland seeking for Polish throne. That was OTL. Say that ITTL Alexander assumes that Polish throne could wait and that victory against Moscow would improve his position, so he does not betray his allies and combined Livonian-Lithuanian-Tatar forces are victorious, Alexander is able to restore Lithianian border from beginning of his reign. Thus victorious Alexander is not desperate like IOTL and does not need to agree for Union of Mielnik and Priviledge of Mielnik. Lithuanian position towards Poland would be better than IOTL, position of monarch too.
-Alexander is healthier, thus he lives longer. That means Mikhail Glinski is not going to rebel and escape to Moscow. Glinski was Alexander's personal friend (unlike Sigismund, who did not knew Gliński). Without any doubt Alexander would take side of Gliński in his conflict with Zabrzeziński. Gliński would not be accused of murder and would not need to escape. Thus we have no Glinski family in Moscow and Ivan IV butterflied away.
-Sigismund either remains governor or Silesia or he may try his luck in Sweden (IOTL Swedish rebels proposed him Swedish crown twice, first time in 1506 or 1507). Alexander would like Sigismund in Sweden IMHO, otherwise Sigismund would be potential competitor to Alexander's own son.
With stronger Lithuania something like Union of Lublin is not going to happen, edpecially if Jagiellon line continues, and Poland is not that dominant partner of the Union, although despite Alexander's victory, Moscow still is stronger than Lithuania, thus Lithuanians could not afford to break their ties with Poland completly.
 
-Alexander is healthier, thus he lives longer. That means Mikhail Glinski is not going to rebel and escape to Moscow. Glinski was Alexander's personal friend (unlike Sigismund, who did not knew Gliński). Without any doubt Alexander would take side of Gliński in his conflict with Zabrzeziński. Gliński would not be accused of murder and would not need to escape. Thus we have no Glinski family in Moscow and Ivan IV butterflied away.
Did the same PoD on fai.org.ru (in collaboration with @Rurik ).
The side effects would be interesting.
Vasily III never meeting Elena Glinskaya likely means that he does not divorce his first wife (doing this OTL requiring alienating the clergy in "Henry VIII-lite" way, as he was the first Grand Prince to divorce his wife), so when push comes to shove re. heirs, he'll simply allow his brothers to marry earlier.
So Muscovy passes into cadet line of Rurikids. The regency is likely, though would be shorter than OTL.

OTOH, Elena Glinskaya may end up the wife of Alexander's son TTL. Though that would be treated pretty much like Barbara Radziwill OTL match (and she is likely to be the second wife).
 
http://fai.org.ru/forum/topic/44660-aleksandr-yagellon-ne-bezdeten/
I had there 2 children born from union with Helen of Moscow - Alexander Sigismund (b.1496) and Sophia (b.1500).

Заодно посмотрим, стоит ли на англо-ФАИ постить, там коллеги с западной границы могут подсобить типа коллеги Jan Olbracht.
Translation - I'll think about cross-posting this one at AH.com, here I can get ideas from our Western neigbours, such as @Jan Olbracht.

Time passes, I forget about this thread - and you, darling, create one with this PoD.
 
An idea thought of in this another thread is that Vasily III (who loathed his brothers, thinking them unworthy to run even their own fiefs) may... will Muscovy to his Lithuanian nephew, and War of Russian Succession ensues after his childless death.
 
An idea thought of in this another thread is that Vasily III (who loathed his brothers, thinking them unworthy to run even their own fiefs) may... will Muscovy to his Lithuanian nephew, and War of Russian Succession ensues after his childless death.
Interesting. I think that if Alexander and Elena had two sons it would be quite likely-younger one adopted by his uncle is designed to be his heir in Moscow.
 
The idea of Muscovy-Lithuanian union is brought up in the neighbouring thread, given that in both these principalities/kingdoms Alexander's son would be hereditary ruler not depending on whims of nobility.
But the idea of dynastic union, as you've said, also works.
A Lithuanian prince designated as heir to Muscovy also impacts peace treaty after war of 1501 - Vasily III would feel bad taking as much as he did OTL from his nephew. Also, if the dynastic union is imminent, no war for Smolensk will happen later on, and instead Kazan would be taken already in the reign of Vasily III.
 
Dynastic union is easier for obvious reason-one man can't be Catholic and Orthodox at the same time. Two brothers, two faiths solution is way easier.
 
Dynastic union is easier for obvious reason-one man can't be Catholic and Orthodox at the same time. Two brothers, two faiths solution is way easier.
So, instead of creating strife either in GDL (by having their ruler convert in order to get on Russian throne) or in Russia (though the War of Russian Succession is likely to happen, as Yuri of Dmtrov would not take it easy being thrown out of succession line), let's go with Sigismund being born in 1496 and Alexander in 1498 (Helen's last pregnancy) and Alexander gets adopted by Vasily III.
 
Thus we can have Jagellons sitting on various thrones from Hungary to Muscovy:)
In the other thread some people started to have rather wankish ideas like this Jagellon dynastic mega-union united "crusade" effort against Ottoman Empire, to which they were given the reality check that this empire is at its peak, and that war in Crimea and steppes would be war for big chunks of nothing.
 
Also if Alexander has his eastern border secured he could focus more on other fronts-Prussian branch of Teutonic Order and Habsburgs. So Polish-Lithuanian Jagiellons would not renounce their rights to Bohemia and Hungary.
 
If Alexander is widowed upon taking Polish throne he needs new wife. He could marry Germaine de Foix, who was proposed to his older brother John Albert. Thus changes could soon reach Iberia.
 
It is interesting PoD, but if Alexander is more capable and more lucky, why changes happen so late? I mean, a more capable ruler can understand, that princes on eastern borders want a bit more freedom, a bit other conditions of service for their senior, and so on.
If more princes are loyal to Vilno and Alexander, the date and results of Moscow-Lithuanian war can be changed.
And if the war did not start at 1500 and 1501, and Alexnader became the king of Poland, and his older son - a grandson of Ivan III - became the grand duke of Lithuania, and Elena died before 1500...
Maybe, no war happened at all?
 
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