Better Hungarian economy after Cold War

[Jukra]

Maybe some attack helicopters too?

Attack helicopters have proven to be an expensive disappointment in most conflicts, and Hungarian defense spending would be still rather small. In deployment to expeditionary situations (say, Afghanistan) USA can provide the capability while in European situation they're probably not worth spending the money.

Instead of Pzh-2000 go for Slovak Zuzana, just call it Zsuzsa to show brotherhood of Upper and Lower lands.

I picked up PzH-2000 since surplus was historically available.

 

[Fehérvári]

As far as I can discern, there simply isn't a way for there to be a "smooth transition" from communism. I'm open to being corrected, but the system is so far gone by 1990 any attempts to smooth out the transition are only going to prolong the central issues facing the economy. Arguably, this is exactly what happened in Hungary. Unlike Poland and the Czech Republic who initiated drastic monetary stabilization programs in 1990 and 1991 respectively, the Hungarian government accepted inflation as something that was unavoidable and did not institute similar policies until the country was on the verge of collapse. As controversial as they were/are, the economic data that we have suggests to me that had the policies that were enacted in 1994/5 been instituted in 1990, the Hungarian economy would have been on much firmer ground. That's not to say that the Bokros package from OTL was perfect, far from it, but they were headed in the right direction. Had a similar package been enacted by the Hungarian government in 1990, things would have been much worse than they were in OTL for the first few years, but the recovery would have then been able to begin earlier. I would argue that the Hungarian government underestimated the resilience and the understanding of the Hungarian people. Nobody expected the economy to be good immediately following the collapse of Communism, with proper leadership and policies I don't see why similar programs to those enacted in Poland and the Czech Republic couldn't have worked in Hungary. A best case scenario IMO would be if a better planned Bokros-esque package was adopted in 1990 there would be significant short term pain, but it would lay the foundations for long-term growth far earlier than they were in OTL.

Well, maybe reform communist becomes dominant in the second half of 80's, and they slowly begin the shift to market economy earlier. Atleast they wouldn't just pretend like there wouldn't be any problem. The debt problem could be addressed earlier, which is a good start.

 

[History Learner]

16% wage growth last year isn't good?

 

[KACKO]

16% wage growth last year isn't good?

Decline of GDP in early 90-ties by over 30%, enomployment grows to 14%, inflation rate around 10% a year in 90-ties. That’s not very encouraging numbers.
Not sure about purchasing power decline in 90-ties but for example neighboring Slovakia had sharp decline in 90-ties and purchasing power reach levels of late communist era only in 2014 I believe (or something around that date).

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

After the Cold War, the economy of Hungary experienced a serious setback, when it shifted its economy back to being market-based, which was made even worse with the industry-killing wild-privatisation. If the shift would have went a bit more smoothly and after that, the reckless wild-privatisation doesn't happen, then how much better could the economy be nowadays? How would it look like? I assume Hungary would have joined the EU in 2000, as it was originally intended back then. GDP and GDP per Capita numbers are welcome too.

My secondary question is that, if in this sceniario, Hungary would have stayed true to the NATO regulation regarding military budget after it joined in 1999, and it spends yearly atleast 2% of its GDP on defense, then how would the Hungarian Army look like nowadays? What systems would it keep in service, etc? Let's say the mean for spending is 2,1% of the GDP in this time period.

I made a similar thread with 1956 POD here:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/wi-non-aligned-capitalist-hungary-after-1956.439099/

Thank you in advance for your answers!

I was thinking about more investment in agriculture. I don't know if it is possible or so but Hungary could be one of the biggest exporters of agriculture products like wheat or so within the EU. I don't know if Hungarian land is enough for the EU or so but it closer and thus cheaper to transport.

I would actually wait with joining the EU. It isn't stable at the moment. Making nice trade agreements is nice but actually joining... I personally would not like Brussel to have a part in ruling the country.

With regards to military, the Army would be either bigger in number or smaller but better equipped. The latter sounds better because Hungary isn't really near warzones that threatens the country. I'd expect Hungary to be partner like Poland during Nato missions.

 

[History Learner]

Decline of GDP in early 90-ties by over 30%, enomployment grows to 14%, inflation rate around 10% a year in 90-ties. That’s not very encouraging numbers.
Not sure about purchasing power decline in 90-ties but for example neighboring Slovakia had sharp decline in 90-ties and purchasing power reach levels of late communist era only in 2014 I believe (or something around that date).

That the situation was bad in the early to mid 90s was generally a given in all now Ex-Communist nations, but in Hungary's case they've ended an economic powerhouse since then largely under Orban; given we're now in the Post-Cold War era, I'd argue OP's conditions have already been filled.

 

[KACKO]

That the situation was bad in the early to mid 90s was generally a given in all now Ex-Communist nations, but in Hungary's case they've ended an economic powerhouse since then largely under Orban; given we're now in the Post-Cold War era, I'd argue OP's conditions have already been filled.

Well central European countries are doing pretty well right now.
Question is I understand it how much better Hungary (but slso others) could do if wild privatization (and corruption I guess too) of 90-ties could be avoided.