Better diplomatic position for the CP

Susano

Banned
As the similar thread that inspired me has drifted off into the CP invading Switzerland:confused: , Ill make an own thread.

Assume Italy stays with the CP, entering the war 1915, maybe because A-H does hand over Trent, and Gorizia and Gradisca. Also assume that Romania remains either neutral or split in a civil war, most likely because Charles has the decency to live some years longer. And finally imagine that all that German influence in Scandinavia does some good, and that at least Sweden enters on CP side somewhen until 1916.

All military strategies go up exactly the same until Italy enters the war, and there are no other changes in doctrines and warfare than those caused by the changed diplomatic situation. Also, Switzerland is not attacked:rolleyes::p

So, what happens happens? How does the alternative war enfold?
 

MrP

Banned
Well, more concentration on Europe, I fancy, since the chaps who want a grand outflanking manoeuvre now have Sweden and Italy to choose from. Sweden is pretty safe where she is, tbh, so Italy is the one likely to get hit navally, since the combined Austro-Italian fleet (even though it has Austrian battleships ;) ) is still too big a threat to the Med supply routes for the Allies to ignore. I don't want to go into this in too much detail, since, well - guess which way Italy will swing in PlC. ;) But significant naval clashes can be expected between the CP and Entente naval forces. On that - if there've been good relations between them pre-war, then the Italian and A-H fleets will both be smaller than IOTL, so they'll pose a lesser threat than their OTL counterparts would.
 

Susano

Banned
then the Italian and A-H fleets will both be smaller than IOTL, so they'll pose a lesser threat than their OTL counterparts would.

Nah, lets assume first diplomatic and other changes appear no earlier then, say, oh, 1910. Too bad, because just like Germany Austria could profit from some more concentrtaion on land forces instead of the navy, but, eh.

Ignoring details, would France have much trouble with a sudden second invasion? Could it quickly enouh reroute troops? And if it does, would that crucially weaken the front against the Germans?

Also, with the forces Austria now does not have to muster against Romania and Serbia, could it have more susccess against Serbia and Russia? And lastly, would Russia react to a Swedish invasion of Finnland, or concentrate on Germany? Could Russia even react? Their slogistcis and supply situation apparently, ah, wasnt the best, after all...
 

MrP

Banned
Nah, lets assume first diplomatic and other changes appear no earlier then, say, oh, 1910. Too bad, because just like Germany Austria could profit from some more concentrtaion on land forces instead of the navy, but, eh.

Ignoring details, would France have much trouble with a sudden second invasion? Could it quickly enouh reroute troops? And if it does, would that crucially weaken the front against the Germans?

Also, with the forces Austria now does not have to muster against Romania and Serbia, could it have more susccess against Serbia and Russia? And lastly, would Russia react to a Swedish invasion of Finnland, or concentrate on Germany? Could Russia even react? Their slogistcis and supply situation apparently, ah, wasnt the best, after all...

Well, the Meuse-Argonne offensive I mentioned in t'other thread can be cancelled, and men sent south. However, since the PoD is pre-war, there's a lot of potential for weirdness. In short, France did IOTL have an army deployed down on the Italian border because Italy was a member of the Triple, and Joffre shifted them north (and reorganised the army in general) to allow for offensive actions against the Germans. If Italy's clearly pro-CP, then he won't be able to do this and there will almost certainly be an army down there waiting for Italy's entry. This also means that the initial French offensives either won't have occurred or, if they did, will have killed fewer French and Germans on account of being smaller in scale.

Wrt to Serbia, she's fucked, to put it in common parlance. Her only hope is surviving through some combination of wackiness and zaniness. The Russians do have a covering army for Finland in '14, 4 Schuetzen Brigades and 5 divisions, but just looking at 50th Infantry Division's movements, I suspect these have all been thrown into the front line by OTL '15. With a more aggressive Sweden, this may not be the case, but they might not get priority for arms and equipment. However, that might be offset by the short supply lines and the fact that they're in essence defending St Petersburg.

The Russians did manage to launch the Brusilov Offensive in '16, even if it did end up over-extended, so don't count them out completely. That said, I wouldn't like to be in the position of the Admiral von Essen, their Baltic Fleet Commander, with the Swedes and Germans against his forces, he's even more badly outgunned than IOTL.

A 1910 PoD . . . Italy had already laid down Dante Alighieri which caused the Austrians to reply with the 4 Tegetthoffs. However, funds were refused by the government, much to everyone's surprise, leading the Austrian naval chief to lie to everyone and pretend that private industry was going to pay for them. He took a 32 million crows credit on his own head to get them started. So if you kill him (ah, P's murderous instincts again ;) ), or have the truth exposed scandalously, then you've killed the ships, too. And probably Italy's Andrea Doria and her sister, Duilio, not to mention the Caracciolos.

IOTL a Naval Convention of '13 was signed between A-H, Italy and Germany providing that in the event of war in the Med an A-H admiral would have command of any combined fleet. But I'd imagine that would be an Italian admiral if the Ts aren't built ITTL.
 

Irioth

Banned
moving post to this thread, too...

I wonder, the fact the Austro-Hungarians can now throw the whole of their army on Russia (minus the forces to deal with Serbia, for a while), doesn't it change anything ?

Let's assume the Anglo-French make a couple offensive less, but nonetheless they have to cover a much longer front. Doesn't it mean the French will meet their manpower crisis of 1917, way sooner, when economic blockade hasn't yet pushed the Germans to risky unrestricted submarine warfare (hence no American intervention, which saved the Entente) ? And the whole A-U Army on the Eastern front, not to mention the Swedes, won't it hasten the crisis of the Russians considerably, too ?
 
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