Better Chance of German Success Tunisia or Italy?
Where did the Germans have more a chance at success in Tunisia or Italy? By success I mean doing the most damage to the Allies and delaying their efforts.
I wrote up two mini scenarios for it enjoy. Feel free to bring up your own POD's.
Scenario 1: Rommel withdrawals from El Alamein earlier and arrives back in Tunisia with far greater strength, Rommel in OTL lost over 100 tanks because of the delay. He then fights a brilliant campaign even more costly for the Allies then OTL.
Scenario 2: The Germans cancel Operation Steinbock and concentrate air power in the Mediterranean Theater. With extra Luftwaffe support the Germans are able to crush the allies landings at Anzio.
Tunisia:
In late October, 1942 the Battle of El Alamein had turned sharply in the Allies favor. The German Panzer Armee Afrika no longer possessed the strength to pierce the British defense and was being slowly grounded into dust. The army was running low on almost everything. Fuel and ammunition still had to be trek the long distance from the Libyan ports to the army.
With the situation worsening, German Field Marshal Rommel now contemplated a withdrawal from the El Alamein position to Fuka roughly fifty miles in the rear. On the 29th of October, with this on his mind, Rommel held a meeting with his two most trusted officers Colonels Fritz Baylerian and Siegfried Westphal. All three men agreed that if pressured further the army should pull back to the Fuka Line and then into Libya if necessary.
Over the next few days Allied attacks continued in great strength. On November 1st, the British XXX and X Corps launched hundreds of tanks forward along the coast road breaking through German positions. Rommel reacted to the British attack by denuding the southern sector and launching all available reserves in a spirited counter attack. With great effort the assault was halted, the British tanks limped away having lost 87 tanks. Rommel's men had survived this latest battering but their strength had been spent. Now was the time to withdraw while the British paused to regroup.
Rommel, taking advantage of the momentary break in action informed high command of his decision and ordered the Italian XX Corps and the 90th Light Division to begin pulling back first to El Daba and then Fuka. On the morning of November 3rd, Rommel received the infamous "victory or death" order from Hitler and halted his planned withdrawal.
The Field Marshal quickly changed his mind when a new Italian intelligence report, later thought to be false, arrived stating that the British had managed to push through the Qattara Depression. Rommel immediately sped to met Field Marshal Albert Kesselring, who was touring the front. Rommel explained how the British could soon be in the German rear, and that the situation was critical. Kesselring, agreed with Rommel's logic and gave his support to any pull back, despite Hitler's orders to the contrary.
Having gained Kesselring's approval Rommel began the withdrawal with all haste. Over the quiet night of November 3rd, Panzer Armee Afrika withdrew to the Fuka line undetected. The next morning, the British opened up a huge artillery barrage against the largely empty Axis positions. This was then followed by a massive armoured assault which overwhelmed the remaining Axis forces. The British scored a great victory at the Battle of El Alamien, but Rommel's illusive Panzer Army lived to fight another day.
Anzio:
By November 1943, the Allied invasion of Fortress Europe was in full sway. The seizure of Sicily over the summer was followed shortly after by American and British landings in Italy itself. The Allies seemingly unstoppable slowly worked their way up the peninsula. Only a brilliant defense by CiC Italy Field Marshall Albert Kesselring had succeeded in halting the Allies just south of Rome.
It was at this moment that the German High Command was faced with a choice to either commit more forces to the Italian theater or risk losing Rome. Kesselring and Luftwaffe commander Wolfram von Richthofen had long pressed for more air assets to be given to their beleaguered Mediterranean forces. Goring however had other plans he had long contemplated an air offensive to avenge Hamburg. Code named Operation Steinbock, Goring was preparing to unleash the Luftwaffes remaining strategic air reserve, roughly 500 aircraft including the new He 177 heavy bomber, against London. Richthofen fiercely objected to Steinbock stating that the operation, like all the other bombing raids on London, would accomplish little. Goring however was unmoved and declared the operation would go forward as planned. It was only the timely intervention of Hitler that salvaged the situation.
Hitler having just read a new Abwehr report stating that the Allies were likely to attempt a landing near Rome sometime in February, he suddenly feared for his southern flank. In response he order Steinbock cancelled and for its air assets to be put at Richthofen's disposal. The German commander spent much of December organizing his new forces most of which were based in north Italy and southern France, out of the immediate danger zone. At the months end Richthofen retired to his hunting lodge, for some much need rest.
On the morning of the 22nd to Richthofen's total shock a report was rushed to him of an Allies landing in the Anzio sector just south of Rome. Richthofen, cursing Admiral Carnais with every breath, speed south to asses the situation. Meanwhile Kesselering's head quarters was in a state of panic few assets were available to meet the initial Allies landings The Allies established themselves firm beachhead. The German Field Marshall gathered what forces he could ordering his only available reserves to contain the landing. It was only American General Lucas hesitance that saved the Germans from a greater crisis.
The Furher demanded a counter offensive to drive the Allies into the sea. Some favored an earlier assault, but Kesslering held off waiting for the maximum of his forces to arrive. By the onset of February the Germans had amassed 10 divisions and over 700 aircraft. In early February, the Luftwaffe had begun a series of heavy raids in attempt to repeat their success at Bari months prior, strafing Allied troops, attacking shipping and dropping naval mining. The Fritz X missile proved to be particularly accurate and effective weapon, sinking a number of Allied warships. During the daytime attacks were conducted by Fw-190s, Me 410s and Bf 110s. At night Ju-88 and He 111 and He 177 bombers led the way. Richthofen and the Luftwaffe would do everything in their power to help crush the Allied beachhead.