Better British Economy post 1979?

[Hood]

The 1980s were a pretty hectic time for Britain with the collapse of a lot of traditional industry, the gutting of the North, strikes, the Troubles, privatisation and the growth of the service sector. Thatcher and her policies are divisive, but its generally recogised British economic and social woes had been building up for a long time prior.
What can be done from Jan 1979, with the terms that Thatcher still gets elected and the Falklands still occurs to rebuild the British economy while still maintaining something along the lines of neoliberalism. What industries can be saved, can anything be done with the unions other than crushing them etc? Different negotiations with Europe? A more inclusive economic recovery?

 

[Asian Jumbo]

Personally I think that the problems that came to a head in the late 70s had built up over the previous 30 years, ever since the UK failed to re-invest in its industry post WW2. Reasons certainly include poor management as well as pig-headed labour coupled with what seems to be a government that should have stepped back and allowed companies to find out the hard way that change was needed & not interfered to rescue doomed business models and working practice.
Someone was going to have to step up eventually and it ended up being Thatcher. The problem (and I am a child of the 60s so had grown up with this background) had become obvious and I wonder how much people who did not live through this period understand just how bad/ossified/confrontational it had become - meaning that something pretty drastic was going to have to happen and it was never going to be painless.

To come out of it better I think that greater investment in infrastructure using the proceeds of North Sea oil and privatisation would be a good place to start. Keeping government out of interfering with company management/strategy would also be effective And good place to start.
I don’t know enough about (say) shipbuilding to say how more yards could be saved or if they should have been (I.e. was there a long term future for them whatever happened?).
Maybe the correct answer is wholesale adoption of German technical training & apprenticeship models?

 

[Gth]

A meteor made of gem-encrusted gold and silver crashes into Scotland.

On the one hand, you get this big wealth of precious metals and gems, and on the other you lose Scotland.

Its a win win.

 

[Hood]

Personally I think that the problems that came to a head in the late 70s had built up over the previous 30 years, ever since the UK failed to re-invest in its industry post WW2. Reasons certainly include poor management as well as pig-headed labour coupled with what seems to be a government that should have stepped back and allowed companies to find out the hard way that change was needed & not interfered to rescue doomed business models and working practice.
Someone was going to have to step up eventually and it ended up being Thatcher. The problem (and I am a child of the 60s so had grown up with this background) had become obvious and I wonder how much people who did not live through this period understand just how bad/ossified/confrontational it had become - meaning that something pretty drastic was going to have to happen and it was never going to be painless.

To come out of it better I think that greater investment in infrastructure using the proceeds of North Sea oil and privatisation would be a good place to start. Keeping government out of interfering with company management/strategy would also be effective And good place to start.
I don’t know enough about (say) shipbuilding to say how more yards could be saved or if they should have been (I.e. was there a long term future for them whatever happened?).
Maybe the correct answer is wholesale adoption of German technical training & apprenticeship models?

This is what I consider interesting about this era. 1940s, even through to the 60s PODs could save a lot of what already happened, whereas by 79 a lot of the traditional industries, along with political and social were boiling over. I think a lot of the industries are probably too far gone (aviation really needed to be fixed int he 60s, coal was screwed) so its down to what can and is worth salvaging and what new areas and industries can be looked into.

Agree on German tech and apprenticeship models, perhaps expanding technical schools. Quality control is a serious issue. Comes down to company management, perhaps adopting Deming principles of quality control and business management? North Sea oil perhaps, some kind of sovereign wealth fund. Wasn't there a lot of problems with oil effecting the pound, 'leave the bloody stuff in the ground', screwed british exports?

 

[naraic]

Sir John Parker was the deputy chief executive of British ship building at this time.

In 2013 he did a series of interviews about how he tried and failed (government blocked him) to pivot British shipbuilding into building cruise liners and abandoning bulk cargo ships. He felt that there was more of a quality differentiation than a price differentiation in that market and that it was a major growth market.

It's worth noting that one of that largest builder of luxury yachts is a British company so Britain had the ability to play the quality market.

 

[David Flin]

Personally I think that the problems that came to a head in the late 70s had built up over the previous 30 years, ever since the UK failed to re-invest in its industry post WW2. Reasons certainly include poor management as well as pig-headed labour coupled with what seems to be a government that should have stepped back and allowed companies to find out the hard way that change was needed & not interfered to rescue doomed business models and working practice.
Someone was going to have to step up eventually and it ended up being Thatcher. The problem (and I am a child of the 60s so had grown up with this background) had become obvious and I wonder how much people who did not live through this period understand just how bad/ossified/confrontational it had become - meaning that something pretty drastic was going to have to happen and it was never going to be painless.

As a child of the 40s and early 50s, I can only concur with every word.

The mid-late 70s meant that something was going to happen. What was happening was self-evidently unsustainable, and the only detail was what form the change would take, not whether a change was going to happen.

 

[Windows95]

The UK uses industrial policy: let the traditional firms fail, but use industrial policy to save the North and create a better economy and jobs instead of the OTL policy of letting traditional firms fail, privatize and to have the North never recover. Use methods that Germany, Japan and South Korea used.

 

[Hood]

Sir John Parker was the deputy chief executive of British ship building at this time.

In 2013 he did a series of interviews about how he tried and failed (government blocked him) to pivot British shipbuilding into building cruise liners and abandoning bulk cargo ships. He felt that there was more of a quality differentiation than a price differentiation in that market and that it was a major growth market.

It's worth noting that one of that largest builder of luxury yachts is a British company so Britain had the ability to play the quality market.

Interesting. British shipbuilding had already declined significantly and had been doing so from ww1 onward. Much of this was down to lack of trust between management and unions, leading as far back as the 1930s when trying to implement technical reform and improvement, such as welded construction. Quality control was an issue with british shipbuilding by the 1970s too, likes of the bridge class and the northumbria. Thorough reform of the industry would likely be necessary to come out the other side and fill niches such as cruise ships and the likes.

 

[naraic]

Interesting. British shipbuilding had already declined significantly and had been doing so from ww1 onward. Much of this was down to lack of trust between management and unions, leading as far back as the 1930s when trying to implement technical reform and improvement, such as welded construction. Quality control was an issue with british shipbuilding by the 1970s too, likes of the bridge class and the northumbria. Thorough reform of the industry would likely be necessary to come out the other side and fill niches such as cruise ships and the likes.

Im not an expert in shipbuilding of the era but I think the quality control issue with British shipbuilding was uneven quality.

A lot of barely capable apprentices doing work unsupervised in order to try to compete with lower wage economy.

If you get rid of the attempt to compete on price and let people follow best practice you have a better chance on quality.

 

[Hood]

Im not an expert in shipbuilding of the era but I think the quality control issue with British shipbuilding was uneven quality.

A lot of barely capable apprentices doing work unsupervised in order to try to compete with lower wage economy.

If you get rid of the attempt to compete on price and let people follow best practice you have a better chance on quality.

I agree, but the industries issues were deep rooted and widespread. Understanding it can no longer compete directly will certainly help.

Any consideration towards unions across Britain? The union issues were coming to a head one way or another, but can anything be done to improve the otl results of union busting, how its gone about and the fallout?

 

[Sooty]

I did my apprenticeship on machines that were new in the 1890's! and we were expected to achieve the same tolerances as machines made in the 1960/70's! You also had to be built like the Cranwell man to operate them comfortably.

 

[Sam R.]

Under capitalisation and failure to recapitalise is a choice. It’s got limits such as market saturation and the race to saturate locally and imperially. But it is still a choice.

financialisation resolves the problem by floating capital as an institution out of the factory, and away from the actual means of production.

so a better 1980s can’t *concieve* of local recapitalisation as sensible. I believe the Coca-Cola kid did this as a film set in Lithgow NSW by a dissident Yugoslav Marxist sexologist. Thank you SBS. But this proves that recapitalisation is a communist fairy tale in the 1980s and the Dark Witch of capital won the winter of discontent and Jesus substitute lions aren’t going to storm the City of London.

Or are they. OBWi: Dubstyle London revolution.

 

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

The 1980s were a pretty hectic time for Britain with the collapse of a lot of traditional industry, the gutting of the North, strikes, the Troubles, privatisation and the growth of the service sector. Thatcher and her policies are divisive, but its generally recogised British economic and social woes had been building up for a long time prior.
What can be done from Jan 1979, with the terms that Thatcher still gets elected and the Falklands still occurs to rebuild the British economy while still maintaining something along the lines of neoliberalism. What industries can be saved, can anything be done with the unions other than crushing them etc? Different negotiations with Europe? A more inclusive economic recovery?

Would implementing Barbara Castle's "In Place Of Strife" helped?

 

[David Flin]

Would implementing Barbara Castle's "In Place Of Strife" helped?

I doubt it. The fault lines were so entrenched by this point that there was going to be strife getting the untenable situation resolved. The only question is around what form that strife takes.

 

[Hood]

To give this a bit of a bump..
So far what I can think of as possible is expanding Thatcherite ideology towards industry in a more 'industry friendly' way, ie actual industrial policy rather than letting it crash and burn, with the rug pulled out and intense competition from high interest rates meaning a survival of the fittest situation which led to 25% of british industry collapsing between 1979-1980.
Something to note is the government went ahead with labour agreed pay rises in 1980. Inflation reached 22% as a result. Not honouring this agreement (I find it somewhat bizarre it was honoured considering Thatcher didn't seem to care regardless and monetarist ideology was specifically for a school of hard knocks approach) would likely reduce inflation in that year somewhat.

Something of a carrot and stick policy could be adopted, otls harsh measures as the stick but extensive tax breaks on new machinery, equipment and techniques, adopting german style training and adopting William Demings approach on quality management to act as something of a carrot. Its likely a lot of british industry will still die (small problem of little finance due to the extremely high interest rates) but it'd nonetheless be a policy more friendly to industry that plays ball with the new competitive game.

New business schools and tech colleges etc could also help.

Would implementing Barbara Castle's "In Place Of Strife" helped?

I don't think so, things were already well out of hand by 79, and many trade union reforms were implemented during thatchers era (some were of course specifically to curtail union power but likes of secret ballots etc were brought in, and were actually popular among many members, rarely leadership however)
Part of the reason for the willingness to let old heavy industry die and replace it with the service industry was
A) usually lower paid jobs (at least initially) which meant less inflation
B) new sector was less trade union dominated, and new TU laws and regulations would apply immediately when TUs were formed.

One area I'm interested in is finance, London was one of the financial capitals of the world and the financial industry would boom through the 80s, benefitting from the 'Big Bang'. Woudl there be any way to orientate even some of the immense financial power wielded back towards internal investment in industry?

 

[BELFAST]

Cancelling trident could have saved a lot of money.
An early peace deal in Northern Ireland might help too, that one is hard to do.
Avoiding the Falklands war would be nice too. I am not in favour of letting Argentina take the Falklands without a fight.
Lower corporate taxes might attract more foreign investment. Ireland did well from that one.
It is a hard time to be in government with all the problems that built up post ww2.
Not doing the poll tax would help too.
A large part of government spending is controlled in local councils so with a large change this remains outside central government control
harder ones to do.
Decriminalising drugs to reduce the cost of policing the drug laws.
Same for Prostitution.

 

[Hood]

Cancelling trident could have saved a lot of money.
An early peace deal in Northern Ireland might help too, that one is hard to do.
Avoiding the Falklands war would be nice too. I am not in favour of letting Argentina take the Falklands without a fight.
Lower corporate taxes might attract more foreign investment. Ireland did well from that one.
It is a hard time to be in government with all the problems that built up post ww2.
Not doing the poll tax would help too.
A large part of government spending is controlled in local councils so with a large change this remains outside central government control
harder ones to do.
Decriminalising drugs to reduce the cost of policing the drug laws.
Same for Prostitution.

Cancelling, or modiying trident to suits british strategic needs is possible, but probably unlikely given the era and what Thatcher ran on.
North is very difficult to handle, but earlier Anglo-Irish Agreement and earlier American cooperation could help, perhaps something to swing gaddafi back into neutral and not arm the IRA to the point they were oversupplied.
Corporate taxes, very possible, FDI into Britain would be much greater.

Yeah poll tax was pretty insane. OTL it was replaced with council tax, so perhaps that from the start?

 

[David Flin]

perhaps something to swing gaddafi back into neutral and not arm the IRA to the point they were oversupplied.

In point of fact, from 1976 to 1981, Libya and Gaddafi weren't supplying the IRA. No-one knows for certain why supplies ceased (there are many theories, none of which sound terribly plausible), but they certainly ceased in 1976. They restarted in 1981 on the death of Bobby Sands. Apparently, that impressed Gaddafi sufficiently to overcome whatever it was that made him stop.

Not that supplies of arms from Libya were ever a major thing. Supplies came in from all over the place: America, Spain, Czechoslovakia, Israel, and many many others. Some paid for, most free donations.

 

[sparky42]

In point of fact, from 1976 to 1981, Libya and Gaddafi weren't supplying the IRA. No-one knows for certain why supplies ceased (there are many theories, none of which sound terribly plausible), but they certainly ceased in 1976. They restarted in 1981 on the death of Bobby Sands. Apparently, that impressed Gaddafi sufficiently to overcome whatever it was that made him stop.

Not that supplies of arms from Libya were ever a major thing. Supplies came in from all over the place: America, Spain, Czechoslovakia, Israel, and many many others. Some paid for, most free donations.

In terms of "paid for" I imagine the money that Gaddafi gave them would have helped:

Extent of Libyan backing for IRA 'shocked' British

The massive scale of Libya's support for the IRA in the 1970s and 1980s is outlined in secret documents released by the National Archives today.

www.rte.ie

As to getting something earlier in NI, highly unlikely really, the '85 agreement came about due to intense build up of the Irish lobby in the US that just wasn't there beforehand.

 

[naraic]

In point of fact, from 1976 to 1981, Libya and Gaddafi weren't supplying the IRA. No-one knows for certain why supplies ceased (there are many theories, none of which sound terribly plausible), but they certainly ceased in 1976. They restarted in 1981 on the death of Bobby Sands. Apparently, that impressed Gaddafi sufficiently to overcome whatever it was that made him stop.

Not that supplies of arms from Libya were ever a major thing. Supplies came in from all over the place: America, Spain, Czechoslovakia, Israel, and many many others. Some paid for, most free donations.

I believe the 1,000s of people on the street for the funerals had more of an effect than the death itself. It made it look like nationalist and republican support was massive. That said the supply of money was very small until the Libyan Embassy siege of 1984.