Best Way to Avoid A World War?

[Thande]

It involved more than just European nations. The Ottoman Empire and the United States were also involved.

And the Empire of Japan.

 

[Floid]

Here's a full list of nations:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Participants_in_World_War_I

 

[Darkling]

Its pretty damn easy to make a POD with a world war. *WWI involves a britain/france/germany teaming up to beat russia to a pulp after it starts expanding in europe.

Indeed, however just because you can make a POD for a war doesn’t mean every POD leads to a WW1.

 

[JLCook]

World War II is easy to avoid

Just make sure that IF there is a WWI, that the results are decisive, conclusive, and FINAL! No "stabbed in the back" theories and no percieved "unfair treatment" of anyone. You also would have to settle EVERYONE'S hash, including that of Japan and Russia.

Avoiding WWI is a lot harder. You have to eliminate the Anglo-German naval rivalry, find a way to curb Japan's ambitions and aggression, make sure that Russia DOESN'T collapse into Boshevism, plus find a way to deal with the french vindictiveness over 1871.

I think that the POD would have to be something Napoleonic. If Napoleon could have avoided his Russian "adventure" and could have maintained his hold on continental Europe, ie East to Prussia, south into Italy, and the Iberian pennensula, but not including the Balkans or Scandinavia (Sweden and Norway) p[erhaps, eventually, an armistice could have been worked out with Great Britain.

If that had happened, in spite of natural British objections to there being a European hegemony by anyone, perhaps a stable relationship between a Napoleonic Europe and a British Empire (nearly everwhere else) might result in a precarious looking but otherwise stable cold war.

By the XXth century, the worldwide major powers would be British and French. The British would have an unassailable supremacy at sea and the french would be unassailable on land, in Europe.

In the Far east, there would be an unchallengeable Royal Navy in Chinese waters. french interests would still exist in Indochina and Africa, but without the possibility that Japan could encourage it's own aggressiveness by easily acquiring German possession (No Germany-no German possessions) ( what places that were OTL German may not necessarily be "French in this ATL).

Under these circumstances, British naval superiority in the Far East, assisted by far greater integration of India, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, South Africa, etc into the Empire, might be a hopeless and insurmountable obstacle for Japan to try to overcome.

With a balanced, bipolar superpower arrangement of France and the British Empire, that leaves the United States as the wild card with which to stir the pot. And Russia.

 

[rewster]

Indeed, however just because you can make a POD for a war doesn’t mean every POD leads to a WW1.

For instance...
POD: Earth does not exist except as an asteroid belt.

 

[Thermopylae]

@JLCook

Two of those may be able to be solved in one PoD: France winning the Franco-Prussian War...

 

[MarkA]

Self-explanatory. What PoD would have a 20th Century Without Tears? What would need to happen to avoid both WWI and subsequently WWII.

As you have noticed there are a myriad of PODs to answer this question. Perhaps rephrase it to ask what is the latest POD that could avoid the wars?

 

[Wendell]

I think that having a bigger Russo-Japanese war could be enough.

 

[The Sandman]

Possibly the best alternative would be a strong Ottoman Empire continuing to control or at least protect North Africa and the Balkans; without those areas as flashpoints, you eliminate many of the disputes that led up to WWI.

 

[Wendell]

Possibly the best alternative would be a strong Ottoman Empire continuing to control or at least protect North Africa and the Balkans; without those areas as flashpoints, you eliminate many of the disputes that led up to WWI.

The Germans did more to provoke the war than any other single power.

 

[The Sandman]

Yes, but with a strong Ottoman presence in North Africa, you don't have the Agadir Crisis, and an Ottoman Balkans prevents the Serbians from being much more than a rebellious province in the Empire. The Germans don't have anything left to turn into a general European war.

 

[Wendell]

Yes, but with a strong Ottoman presence in North Africa, you don't have the Agadir Crisis, and an Ottoman Balkans prevents the Serbians from being much more than a rebellious province in the Empire. The Germans don't have anything left to turn into a general European war.

You and I both know that the Balkans have always been volatile. Your proposal only delays the inevitable. Mine allows for the Germans to jump on a Russia already being pounded by Japan and, due to the Diogger Bay incident, Britain.

 

[The Sandman]

Would the Germans hitting Russia bring the French in, though?

If the Japanese can drag the war out longer (doable if they avoid the siege at Port Arthur), then Russia probably collapses on its own without the British needing to enter it. A Germany busily digesting the bits it would carve off of a disintegrating Russia won't be likely to bother with the naval building program that frightened Britain in OTL.

 

[Wendell]

All are good points.

Would the Germans hitting Russia bring the French in, though?

I am not sure. However, France is less likely to be hostile if Russuia is removed from the picture, and Eastern Europe is a series of German puppet states.

If the Japanese can drag the war out longer (doable if they avoid the siege at Port Arthur), then Russia probably collapses on its own without the British needing to enter it.

While true, would this be enough to bring in the Germans?

A Germany busily digesting the bits it would carve off of a disintegrating Russia won't be likely to bother with the naval building program that frightened Britain in OTL.

True, but is Britain really going to spark a war overe mere navies? Furthermore, the German navy was just meant for show, anyway, and navy men were not well placed in German government.

 

[The Sandman]

If Germany hits Russia during the RJW, the French probably come in under the Franco-Russian Alliance (signed in 1894). This almost certainly will lead to a broader war.

Assuming that Russia falls apart from revolution, I'd be more surprised if Germany doesn't try to pick up some of the pieces in the Balts, Byelorussia, Poland, and the Ukraine.

In our history, I think that the German naval buildup was a large part of what frightened the British into the Entente Cordiale; after all, out of Britain, France and Russia, only one of those would require a large navy to subdue. Here, the Germans don't give the Brits any excuses.

 

[Wendell]

If Germany hits Russia during the RJW, the French probably come in under the Franco-Russian Alliance (signed in 1894). This almost certainly will lead to a broader war.

Assuming that Russia falls apart from revolution, I'd be more surprised if Germany doesn't try to pick up some of the pieces in the Balts, Byelorussia, Poland, and the Ukraine.

In our history, I think that the German naval buildup was a large part of what frightened the British into the Entente Cordiale; after all, out of Britain, France and Russia, only one of those would require a large navy to subdue. Here, the Germans don't give the Brits any excuses.

Here, what we ultimately have is a "Whale and Wolf" scenario whereby Britain controls the oceans and Germany the land. With Russia vanquished (and large areas annexed), France can be brought to the table, and Germany runs Europe.

 

[MerryPrankster]

A unified Germany can be had without a world war.

Someone wrote a TL where Bismarck dies soon after the Franco-Prussian War begins. Bavaria objects more strongly to a Prussianized Germany and without Bismarck, the constitution of the unified Germany is more US-like.

However, wouldn't a more likely scenario involve Bavaria just not being part of the unified Germany? Of course, that ignores Ludwig's spending all the country's money on ridiculous castles...

Perhaps a more equitable situation in Alsace-Lorraine would be better. Germany only gets one and not the other, or perhaps parts of both. The Franco-German rivalry isn't so fierce.

 

[Max Sinister]

Ludwig would go broke even earlier - Bismarck bribed him with some million goldmarks, so he'd join the Reich.

 

[Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy]

Yes, but with a strong Ottoman presence in North Africa, you don't have the Agadir Crisis, and an Ottoman Balkans prevents the Serbians from being much more than a rebellious province in the Empire. The Germans don't have anything left to turn into a general European war.

The Agadir Crisis was in Morocco, where the Ottomans had no interest. As for the Balkans, it was the whole "Turkish Yoke" that created the issues in the 1st place. Do you really think they can dominate the numerically superior Serbs, Bulgarians, Greeks, and Albanians for long, and that Europe would be more stable for it?

As for a German domination of Europe, nothing good would come out of it.

 

[Max Sinister]

Were the Christians numerically superior? Could've been at that time, of course - today, with 70+ million Turks, it sounds... unlikely.