Best way of getting a fourth Labour term

After watching the 2005 and 2010 Election Night broadcasts (well, clips, not the whole night/morning and in the case of 2010, afternoon), I got thinking. What's the best, most effective way of ensuring a fourth Labour government with a majority in the House of Commons, repeating the Conservatives' victory in '92.

Does it require Blair staying on, quitting in 2012 - after the Olympics would be a convenient time for him. Does it require something happening to Brown, maybe Blair forcing him to resign in the midst of the financial crisis, should he last another year?
 
It's easy to get a fourth Labour term, no debates make it a more two-horse race, a less charismatic LibDem leader or Nick Clegg staying firm on abandoning the tuition fees stance and some Tory-gaffes swing the election towards Labour and Clegg, after resigning and Cable being a "leader-in-waiting" is more agreeable to Brown and a Lab-Lib coalition is made.

It's just extremely weak, tenable to damage as the few cuts the LibDems get cause a fall in Labour backing while the Tories gain more support. The election, probably in a year, gains a Tory landslide.

You could have Blair staying on, maybe no Iraq or War on Terror, but the problem is that Brown is still there and has a firm backing behind him and once Blair deals with him, he's going to get a brewing civil war on his hands.

Or you could see AndyC's The Fourth Lecturn TL which does this and also manages to explain both the Big Society and Brown's reasons for spending in a manner better then they have ever done.
 
I read AndyC's work and thought it was one of the best TLs I've ever seen with a fascinating look at the Big Society. It's interesting to see how untenable a 4th Labour term ultimately would have been, compared to the Tories' fourth. I suppose this is a good thing that parties can no longer dominate for 15-20 years in government and elections are closer.
 
David Davis wins the Conservative party leadership in 2005, Conservatives are neck and neck with Labour in the polls for much of 2006/2007. Brown becomes Prime Minister in June 2007 and the 'Brown bounce' is far bigger, giving him the confidence to push for an October 2007 election he didn't have in OTL. The election results in a Labour majority of 30-40 and five more years in power.
 

Thande

Donor
David Davis wins the Conservative party leadership in 2005, Conservatives are neck and neck with Labour in the polls for much of 2006/2007. Brown becomes Prime Minister in June 2007 and the 'Brown bounce' is far bigger, giving him the confidence to push for an October 2007 election he didn't have in OTL. The election results in a Labour majority of 30-40 and five more years in power.

A 2007 election would indeed most probably have that result, but why would Davis rather than Cameron being Tory leader change Brown's attitude or affect the size of the Brown bounce?
 
A 2007 election would indeed most probably have that result, but why would Davis rather than Cameron being Tory leader change Brown's attitude or affect the size of the Brown bounce?

I doubt Davis would generate the same enthusiasm as Cameron, hence the 'bounce' might pull evne more swing voters away from the Tories than in OTL.
 

Thande

Donor
I doubt Davis would generate the same enthusiasm as Cameron, hence the 'bounce' might pull evne more swing voters away from the Tories than in OTL.

I don't think you get the dynamics of the Brown bounce. Cameron generated enthusiasm in 2006-7 for being hip and with it, the moderniser, the heir to Blair, etc., but when Brown became leader suddenly it looked rather unfashionable (for a brief moment) to look like a Blair-a-like when the Blair era was over. I remember Private Eye having a cartoon where an unhappy Cameron looking at the poll ratings is advised by one of his people "Have you tried being dour, Scottish and boring?" Sounds mad now of course given how unpopular Brown rapidly became, but that was how it was perceived at the time--time for a change.

I could see David Davis actually being the other way around--much less enthusiasm for the Tories in 2006-7 in the short run as it seems like more of the same and he wouldn't be able to do PMQs with Blair as well as Cameron did, but then when Brown took over it would seem like two similar leaders sparring and the Brown bounce might be smaller than OTL due to the lack of contrast.
 
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