Best time period/POD to wank Russia?

I think the term "wank" is kind of weird to apply to RL in any meaningful way, and even if it wasn't I wouldn't call Russia spectacularly lucky in the last century or so but that OTL is the result of bordering on unbelievable poor bad luck/bad leadership feels going too far the other way.

I'd say if you want "spectacularly lucky", avoiding the worst economic consequences of Ivan the Terrible's reign (not necessarily getting rid of Ivan entirely) and the Time of Troubles sound promising - but I'm not enough of an expert on this to make a concrete suggestion past "if Russia had been in a better state in the early and mid-17th century that would be good for the future.", being a thing.
 
Last edited:
The problem with destroying Prussia is that, even if we leave Peter III's Prussiaboo tendencies aside, Prussia is actually the perfect ally against Austria, which is ultimately Russia's main rival in the Balkans, and the perfect partner-in-crime for partitioning Poland with. Even in the 19th century, it wasn't guaranteed that Prussia would've allied with Austria over Russia, given their rivalry with Austria over the German Question.

Having a strong Austria dominating Germany with no one to ally with against them except France is not really a good thing for Russia, especially since France has a historic alliance with Poland. It also isn't the most reliable ally because it has a pro-Austrian faction at court which might get an Austro-French alliance going.
What were the courtiers of Elizabeth in 1761 St. Petersburg thinking?
Did Peter III-s precipitate action in giving up East Prussia he already held, making separate peace and promising to fight on the side of Prussia against their erstwhile allies Austrians bring positive or negative reactions in Russia?
 
What were the courtiers of Elizabeth in 1761 St. Petersburg thinking?
Something along these lines.
wojak-pink.gif

"Dear diary. A human meme now rules Russia. We truly do live in dank times."
@alexmilman

Edit: my mistake, was thinking of the wrong thing.

In December 1761, they were thinking forward to victory over Prussia.
In January 1762, they were raging with fury.
 
Last edited:
In 1761, it had been Elizabeth pressing for prosecuting the war, right? The allies (France and Austria) were reluctant, and so were Russian armies?
 
Sorry, I thought you meant Elizabeth's courtiers when Peter took the throne.

Edit: Elizabeth's courtiers were pro-Austrian and Russia had signed an alliance with Austria in 1746, so they were fully for the war.
 
Last edited:
So, Kolberg was captured in December 1761. Great Britain was fearing collapse of Prussia, and pressurizing Prussia to make concessions - threatening to give up Prussia and stop supporting Prussia as a lost cause.
How far was the possibility of peace with Prussia in December 1761?
 
So, Kolberg was captured in December 1761. Great Britain was fearing collapse of Prussia, and pressurizing Prussia to make concessions - threatening to give up Prussia and stop supporting Prussia as a lost cause.
How far was the possibility of peace with Prussia in December 1761?
Let’s put things in a perspective. The main reason for the last siege of Kolberg was not a conquest of Prussia but supply of the Russian troops most of which had been staying in the PLC: as a supply area the PLC was pretty much exhausted and what was available became costly (Russian Empire was running out of money and subsidies from Austria were not saving the situation; I suspect that a big part of them was misspent on the court entertainments) and Austria failed to provide supplies declaring that Bohemia is devastated by the war. Carrying supplies from Russia by land was cumbersome due to the lousy roads in Russia and PLC and getting them to Kolberg by the sea would make things easier and cheaper.

Relations with Austria were seriously damaged, especially as far as the fighting army was involved, and continued war was not causing too much of enthusiasm. Fieldmarshal Buturlin was simply refusing to engage the Prussians regarding numerous explicit orders from EI. For Rumyantsev Kolberg was just a way to further improve his military reputation and he was not expressing any regrets about piece but was very happy to get an independent command in a planned war with Denmark and was an open supporter of PIII (so CII did not quite trust him until victories in the 1st Ottoman War).

The only driving force on the Russian side was EI who hated Fritz.
 
Let’s put things in a perspective. The main reason for the last siege of Kolberg was not a conquest of Prussia but supply of the Russian troops most of which had been staying in the PLC: as a supply area the PLC was pretty much exhausted and what was available became costly (Russian Empire was running out of money and subsidies from Austria were not saving the situation; I suspect that a big part of them was misspent on the court entertainments) and Austria failed to provide supplies declaring that Bohemia is devastated by the war. Carrying supplies from Russia by land was cumbersome due to the lousy roads in Russia and PLC and getting them to Kolberg by the sea would make things easier and cheaper.

Relations with Austria were seriously damaged, especially as far as the fighting army was involved, and continued war was not causing too much of enthusiasm. Fieldmarshal Buturlin was simply refusing to engage the Prussians regarding numerous explicit orders from EI. For Rumyantsev Kolberg was just a way to further improve his military reputation and he was not expressing any regrets about piece but was very happy to get an independent command in a planned war with Denmark and was an open supporter of PIII (so CII did not quite trust him until victories in the 1st Ottoman War).

The only driving force on the Russian side was EI who hated Fritz.
So Elizabeth remains sickly with occasional fainting spells but no OTL final stroke yet, or obvious inexorable deterioration. The war drags on into spring 1762 with Russia short of money or logistics to press ahead. What WAS Austria wanting in January 1762 before the news of Elizabeth dying? Could you get an initiative for negotiation from Austria?
 
Sorry, I thought you meant Elizabeth's courtiers when Peter took the throne.

Edit: Elizabeth's courtiers were pro-Austrian and Russia had signed an alliance with Austria in 1746, so they were fully for the war.
I’m afraid that you are overestimating Elizabeth’s courtiers in the terms of their interest in the foreign politics and having some kind of the firm political convictions. They were thinking about:
  • Top priority. Being properly dressed for today’s ball or masquerade. Not an easy or cheap thing. The females could not appear twice in the same dress (EI had a very good memory and this would cause a public humiliation) and EI was regularly sending instructions on the attire fashion for the current occasions, which were happening almost daily. So this was costing a lot of money and effort and the money tended not to grow on the trees. Not following the rules could be a complete disaster but following them too well or (God forbid) looking too good was equally or even more dangerous as Lopukhina had chance to find out.
  • Well, of course, they were thinking about the love affairs: not having a lot of them was scandalous.
  • The few well-positioned ones were thinking how to get more money from the state. Shuvalov brothers (except for the youngest one) were extremely good in that and actually were interested in any war because the unicorns (field howitzers) were produced on their manufacture. But the lesser figures also were looking for all types of the cookies.
  • Chancellor Vorontsov was pro-French. Before he became pro-Prussian. Retaining position under EI, PIII and CII required extremely flexible backbone.
  • The Young Court was pro-Prussian while claiming to be pro-war.
  • The high-ranking personages, except for Alexei Razumovski, were planning their political attitudes based upon a daily report about Empress’ health. The lesser ones were ready to make the appropriate noises on a background but this was not the main subject of a conversation.
  • Alexei Razumovsky, besides being the only person sincerely caring about Elizabeth, was probably mostly concerned about borsch with pampushki.
  • Officers of the Guards were sincerely concerned about domineering position in picking up the drinking places with a focus of interest being competition between Shwandich and Orlov brothers.
Probably I missed some items but you can get an idea…😂
 
So Elizabeth remains sickly with occasional fainting spells but no OTL final stroke yet, or obvious inexorable deterioration. The war drags on into spring 1762 with Russia short of money or logistics to press ahead.

And the will. After Kunersdorf a prevailing opinion in the army was that Russia did its fair share and now it is Austrian turn. On the Austrian side Fieldmarshal Daun did not quite share this opinion and could not provide an adequate supply of the Russian allies. As a result, cooperation was steadily going down the tubes.

 
And the will. After Kunersdorf a prevailing opinion in the army was that Russia did its fair share and now it is Austrian turn. On the Austrian side Fieldmarshal Daun did not quite share this opinion and could not provide an adequate supply of the Russian allies. As a result, cooperation was steadily going down the tubes.
So what were the prospects for negotiations?
 
For a wank to the west prehapse make the Polish-Lithuanian-Muscovite union (Commonwealth for simplicity) work in the 15th or 16th century and have the rate of russians demographic rise outcompete poland long term and take the dominant position in the union effectively turning the commonwealth into a russian empire with polands influence deminished in a similer way lithuania gradually lost power in the union otl.
In the short term this would give the Commonwealth the power projection capacity to clean up the baltics and possibly even finland if they can cooperate with denmark to essentially kick off the northern war as much as a century earlier.
Alternitivly depending on when the union forms, the combination of the Russians have a higher chance of committing more resources during the wars of the holy leagues and the polish haveing a greater reason to not head west to assist the austrians in the west and instead link up with the Russians to form a separate commen theater in the east meeting up at the Dnieper to push south with the intent to eject the ottomams from the north side of the black sea by destroying thier vassal of the crimian khanate 1 to 2 centurys earlier and bringing the rest of the former rus into the Commonwealths fold.
This would also have the added benifit of forceing the Austrians to bleed more defending thier borders with otl polish western assistance in thier wars with the ottomans instead pulled east and will likly result in slowed Austrian expansion back into hungry and the balkins giving more room for the commonwealth to instead be the one to insert its influance in the region and allow russia once its in control of the union to use panslavism to direct later balkan expansion west. This western facing russian union maintaining greater links to europe through Poland and expansion in the balkins likly lead to a more technologicaly and industrialy advanced russia that is able to better keep pace with the rest of the continent then otl. A modernized Pan-Slavic Russian dominated commonwealth would be a terrifying force entering the age of imperialism.
 

Attachments

  • Flag_of_the_Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian_Commonwealth_(January_Uprising).png
    Flag_of_the_Polish-Lithuanian-Ruthenian_Commonwealth_(January_Uprising).png
    132.2 KB · Views: 24
Last edited:
I think the term "wank" is kind of weird to apply to RL in any meaningful way, and even if it wasn't I wouldn't call Russia spectacularly lucky in the last century or so but that OTL is the result of bordering on unbelievable poor bad luck/bad leadership feels going too far the other way.

I'd say if you want "spectacularly lucky", avoiding the worst economic consequences of Ivan the Terrible's reign (not necessarily getting rid of Ivan entirely) and the Time of Troubles sound promising - but I'm not enough of an expert on this to make a concrete suggestion past "if Russia had been in a better state in the early and mid-17th century that would be good for the future.", being a thing.
The very notion of “good” or “better” is not something absolute because, in historiography, it usually depends on author’s priorities. For example, Soloviev, probably the greatest Russian historian, was considering the whole thing from the “statehood” point of view: growing prestige of the Russian state was priority #1 so Peter I was unquestionably the “great” and the people’s well-being was somewhere low on a priority scale. But if one thinks about regime being “good” for the people in the terms of their well-being the evaluation would be different. So perhaps it makes sense to start with defining priorities?
 
Honestly I would say avoiding getting into the Napoleonic wars or rather, having Napoleon not rise to power in France(either because he loses credibility, gets killed or somehow gets his ambitions crushed enough he becomes content with being a general) to prevent it from spilling over to the rest of Europe.

From what I know the wars(especially Napoleon's campaign on Russia itself) took a toll on the nation as a bunch of people were killed, Moscow was burnt down and Russia while gaining Finland and Poland was also left in a position where it wasn't the best, not to mention the damage the Continental System did to the economy and only strengthened British industry.

So I would say that Russia being able to develop in peace while it's main rival in the form of Austria gets stomped by Revolutionary France and it leaves Russia to basically get Finland if they want (with everyone focused on the French, it would be a cake walk to get it from Sweden) and most importantly, keep growing their economy and industry as much as they can.
 
As you noticed, there was nothing of the kind on the Russian territories.
Not something you can know for sure before you do the deed.
But the less you know, the easier your task as a preacher of a progress.
Apparently that even extended into the art of writing.
How such drivel became popular, I will never know.
Not necessarily. In 1825, with some stretch of imagination you can put into this category Chaadaev (starting from 1826) and a couple of the really bad poets (Ryleev and Kuchelbecker). Most of the culture-related people had been loyal to the regime.
Pushkin was associated with the Decembrists and, though not charged with anything, his works were censored and his right to travel was revoked.
Anyone in that circle was considered suspect by default.
And, somehow, a lot of government’s criticism had been published. Anyway, the “masses” tended not to read the newspapers.
The archetypal Okhrana fuck-up:

Censor: *sees a Russian translation of Das Kapital, tries to finish it without falling asleep*
*fails, concludes this shit is impenetrable and will be perfectly harmless except as a murder weapon*​
*gives it the seal of approval, book sells out in two weeks. uh-oh*​
*weeks later, hears from every informant that Das Kapital is now THE hot shit in Russian dissident circles*​
*belatedly ban the book, prepare to get fired for criminal negligence*​

(or at least I think it was Das Kapital. It might've been the Communist Manifesto.)
The desirable but cynical solution (not that anybody at that time would dare to spell it out) was to economically destroy a majority of the poorest peasants forcing them to migrate to the industrial centers and become a proletariat. This would cause a lot of noise but it did happen after the RCW as an explicit state policy providing cadres for a massive industrialization. As it was, Russia entered WWI as an excessively agricultural country with the inefficient agriculture and inadequate manufacturing.
This graph might be of interest, then. From this, it's my hypothesis that, despite the disasters on the battlefield, WW1 was doing for Russia's industry what WW2 did for America's. Rapid growth of factories + associated technical professions for the war effort, which would've pivoted to civilian production after the war.

And as the peasants become increasingly impoverished, migrating to the cities with their new factories would seem like a more attractive prospect, since the pay is better and there's more to spend it on in a city as opposed to a rural area.
 
Last edited:
I suppose just not falling behind with industrialization in the 19th century would have done a lot?
 
I suppose just not falling behind with industrialization in the 19th century would have done a lot?
Falling behind?

The problem was in catching up, not falling behind. Historically, when you're trying to catch up industrially, you need three things.

1. You need to recognize that you need to catch up in the first place. The Russian government had recognized that by the 1810s-20s, mainly because it had been importing British technical know-how since the 1780s.​
2. You need to know that for mass urbanization to happen, you need to abolish serfdom or whatever other institution you have that prevents the rural population from moving to the cities. The Russian government had realized that by the 1830s, but was afraid of internal rebellion/coup coming as a result, so it delayed for 20 years.​
3. Finally, you need to have the private capital necessary to make industrialization something that private companies can engage in, thus lifting most of the costs of industrialization from the government/treasury. This happened in Russia in the 1880s-1890s.​

If you can accelerate either (2) or (3) by a few decades, you've won.
 
Last edited:
Top