Best time for Germany to act

What was the best time for Germany to act?


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I've read different accounts of when the best time for Germany to launch WW2 was. Some accounts suggested Germany's military wouldn't be ready till 1942-5, others suggest the allies were more vulnerable in the 1938-1940 window.
 
The idea of Germany was to take Poland and do it without starting WW2. There was technically no good time to do it, as it would have led to war in any year. But if they had anticipated war then it would have been better to do it a year later, to be better prepared for a war with the west.

Its better to do it when you and your enemy are better prepared than when you and your enemy are less prepared.
 

elkarlo

Banned
What about the colonies? How long could the UK keep India in particular if wwii wasn't on ghe horizon
 
The best option for Nazi Germany in hindsight was not to start the war period. How long could of the regime lasted if no war, if they did not start the war?
 

BlondieBC

Banned
Obviously not attacking Poland is best move, but if Germany is to attack Poland, then Germany picked the perfect time. Same for attack on France. IMO, if Hitler avoids attacking the Soviets, there is an even money chance the Nazis are still around.
 
The best option for Nazi Germany in hindsight was not to start the war period. How long could of the regime lasted if no war, if they did not start the war?
Spending/debt crisis in the early 40s, as von Schacht had warned should the Nazis not stop the break neck speed rearmament, which was the reason why he was dismissed from government posts as they did not want to stop the break neck speed rearmament as it was a prerequisite for the war they were planning.
 
Spending/debt crisis in the early 40s, as von Schacht had warned should the Nazis not stop the break neck speed rearmament, which was the reason why he was dismissed from government posts as they did not want to stop the break neck speed rearmament as it was a prerequisite for the war they were planning.
Agreed. The regime's pre-war success depended on military rearmament, which was slowly bankrupting it. The only way forward for the Nazis was to acquire plunder and industrial capacity, which led to WW2, and Germany's defeat. Hitler pinned all of his hopes on diplomatic coups (that the opposing side either wouldn't fight or would surrender quickly). When this failed, Germany's chances of victory evaporated.
 
IMO, if Hitler avoids attacking the Soviets, there is an even money chance the Nazis are still around.
The Nazis were running out of oil, as the British Blockade stopped oil shipments from the Atlantic which meant that vehicles in the Third Reich would have gotten stuck after their lack of fuel made them impossible to run on any major scale.
In short, the Third Reich was dependent on their synthetic oil production and the oil fields of Romania and the Soviet Union, and even then, they did not have enough to maintain a their already extremely unmotorized army.
If they did not attack the Soviet Union, Hitler would have had to watch his economy collapse and his great panzers incapable of making any major offensives.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
The Nazis were running out of oil, as the British Blockade stopped oil shipments from the Atlantic which meant that vehicles in the Third Reich would have gotten stuck after their lack of fuel made them impossible to run on any major scale.
In short, the Third Reich was dependent on their synthetic oil production and the oil fields of Romania and the Soviet Union, and even then, they did not have enough to maintain a their already extremely unmotorized army.
If they did not attack the Soviet Union, Hitler would have had to watch his economy collapse and his great panzers incapable of making any major offensives.

I don't think so. If we avoid the attack on the Soviet Union and assume Stalin will not attack until clear Germany is losing and Stalin will sell oil as long as Germans can trade things of value, then there is time.

Step back for a minute. Think about what the Germans do. Most of their armor units are on bases with limited training schedules. Quite a few are in reserve status. Due to resource constraints, the German defense versus Russia are infantry divisions deeply entrenched and supplied via coal feed trains. Luftwaffe is on defensive except for naval aviation. Germany lacks enough ships to burn a lot of oil.

I just don't see them running out of oil
 
I don't think so. If we avoid the attack on the Soviet Union and assume Stalin will not attack until clear Germany is losing and Stalin will sell oil as long as Germans can trade things of value, then there is time.

Step back for a minute. Think about what the Germans do. Most of their armor units are on bases with limited training schedules. Quite a few are in reserve status. Due to resource constraints, the German defense versus Russia are infantry divisions deeply entrenched and supplied via coal feed trains. Luftwaffe is on defensive except for naval aviation. Germany lacks enough ships to burn a lot of oil.

I just don't see them running out of oil
Oil was the main source of energy. Do you see Panzers suddenly beginning to use steam engines? And despite oil shipments from the Soviet Union, Germany before Operation Barbarossa was suffering from major shortages. If Stalin decides to cut off oil shipments to the Axis, either in order to soften relations with the Allies, or to invade Germany (invasion option is pretty unlikely), Germany will be in no state to do anything but hold the line for a while, before collapsing under the weight of the Soviet War Machine.
 
Do you see Panzers suddenly beginning to use steam engines?

fahrschulpanzer-1-tank.jpg

Panzer I trainer running on Producer Gas

panzer15-4.jpg

Halftrack

Some Stugs were also converted.

I've posted in the past that the Germans really should have been using steam powered trucks.
 
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Oil was the main source of energy. Do you see Panzers suddenly beginning to use steam engines? And despite oil shipments from the Soviet Union, Germany before Operation Barbarossa was suffering from major shortages. If Stalin decides to cut off oil shipments to the Axis, either in order to soften relations with the Allies, or to invade Germany (invasion option is pretty unlikely), Germany will be in no state to do anything but hold the line for a while, before collapsing under the weight of the Soviet War Machine.
Source please? My (WoD) source says that they had just captured millions of tons of finished product (as opposed to feedstock) when they consolidated the gains made in Spring/Summer 1940. They also captured even more during the the foray through the Balkans in the Spring of 1941, again finished product. The crisis seen during Barbarossa (Aug. '41) had everything to do with a logistical system that couldn't keep up, and nothing to do with stocks at hand. The same can be said about the whole myth of not providing winter gear for the foot soldiers. It was made. It was packed and ready to send in October 41.
The fact is that when it comes down to throughput in the overstretched supply system, absolute priorities are: Ammunition, Food for the soldiers/Fodder for the draft horses, POL.
After that come another set: Spares (for field maintenance), Medical supply, Engineering supplies (to extend/improve the logistic network).

There was no shortage of motor POL/ammunition/sustenance at the rail heads in Aug. 41. There was no shortage at the point of embarkation either. The shortages were at the "pointy" end of an extremely overburdened ground (motor) transport system. There were serious shortages of items that fall in the second tier of supply at one rail head in particular- HGM. Thus their supply system was incapable of anything more than what we saw historically...defensive actions, using what they had. Ammunition, sustenance, (and lastly) POL.
The North and the Ukraine axes were in a much better supply position and this was a fundamental factor in the decision to send Guderian south to Kiev when things went "sideways" at Smolensk. The situation (with regards to the relative burden on that particular Grosstransportraum/i.e. the motor transport system) south of the Prypiat marshes was much more suitable to allow full implementation of a Panzer Group on offensive operations (i.e. 500+ tons per day).

Read: The Most Valuable Asset of the Reich (Vol 2)-Meirzejewski (references the records of the DR)
Supplying War-Van Crevald (there's a full chapter on the Ostfront)
When Titans Clashed- Glantz/House (mostly tactical but there's logistic references galore)
The Wages of Destruction- J Adam Tooze (just because...)
FYI? Methinks that you are somewhat out of your depth here...

Standing Stocks of finished POL did become more of an issue by November/December, as the "booty cache" had been pretty well burned up...all three million tons of it. It should be noted that synth production was growing by leaps and bounds during this period. Investments in plant made in the late 30's were starting to pay off. Deliveries from Romania (erdol+ finished product) were also at their peak and the Zisterdorf field in Austria was coming on line.
As such, (contrary to "popular belief") Germany was not "starved" for POL in the 41-42 period. At the "pointy end" on the Ostfront and in N/A (Heer) there were always problems due to logistics. The Luftwaffe still had ample supply and suffered little/no operational effects in theatre- they just flew their supplies in when the ground system was overstressed.

On topic? The best time to strike was when they did. It was still a fool's errand to do so, but they had nothing to gain by waiting...

Ron
 
The 'best' time - but still with an outcome of disaster, maybe.

Let us for a moment imagine that it plays out before 1938. Meaning Munich in 1935/6. Surely Germany is not ready for anything, but UK not better off. France? maybe the equipment, but the morale and eagerness to do anything?

So, If Munich gets pulled off in 1935, we could turn to Poland. I believe Poland would be in a better situation in 1935 than in 1939 (relative to Germany of course).

That leaves an invasion of France in 1936. Comments on that one?

A more 'fun' scenario could be that Poland gives in to Germany and let them have the corridor in 1935. Then what?

A Munich in 1940 or 1941 would be unlikely I think. We should not discard the Czech fortifications. If there would be no border between USSR and Poland in 1940/41 (because Poland is not attacked), then it would be difficult for USSR to attack anything.

Just a thought.

Ivan
 
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