Best Possible Preparation for WWI

[SpicyJuan]

With a POD of either early or late July, what are some things that the Germany and Austria-Hungary could have done to best prepare for the coming war and how much of an affect would it have on the war itself, diplomacy, and the resulting historiography?

Some preliminary ideas...

Early July:

• The July harvest leave is cancelled
• Austria-Hungary executes the vaunted fait accompli Belgrade occupation
• Berchtold publishes a dossier of Serbian guilt before the ultimatum is sent

Late July

• Falkenhayn and Moltke convince the Kaiser to declare Kriegsgefahrzustand several days earlier
• Austria-Hungary does not declare war on Serbia until general mobilization was complete (August 12)
• Hötzendorf implements Plan R first, saving the Galician oil fields and grain
• Germany does not declare war on France
• Germany does not send an ultimatum to Belgium, instead invading unannounced
• Germany invades Belgium only after mobilization is complete

 

[Hoplophile]

If we use the German Handstreich against Liège as a rough model for a Hapsburg coup de main against Belgrade, the operation would have been conducted by units at "peace strength." Thus, the cancelling of July harvest leave for the men of those units who were "serving with the colors" would have been well advised. I wonder, however, if such a measure would have been advisable where the rest of the Austro-Hungarian forces were concerned. Indeed, I find myself thinking that the combination of a "bolt from the blue" occupation of Belgrade with "business as usual" might have accomplished the twin task of punishing Serbia for its role in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand while reassuring all concerned that Austria-Hungary was eager to avoid a general war.

 

[Riain]

Austrian Plan R would have been a good move, assuming of course it doesn't simply put up more troops for the Russians to defeat.

The Germans need to sort out their Command issues; appoint a SUpreme Commander of the North Sea like Prince Henry was in the Baltic and create proper Heeresgruppes for the Army rather than the half-arsed 'Operational control' business given to Bulow and Prince Rupprecht.

 

[SpicyJuan]

Austrian Plan R would have been a good move, assuming of course it doesn't simply put up more troops for the Russians to defeat.

The Germans need to sort out their Command issues; appoint a SUpreme Commander of the North Sea like Prince Henry was in the Baltic and create proper Heeresgruppes for the Army rather than the half-arsed 'Operational control' business given to Bulow and Prince Rupprecht.

Any idea how this would change things? Perhaps Verdun falls in 1914?

 

[Riain]

Any idea how this would change things? Perhaps Verdun falls in 1914?

No, manoeuvre was only possible where the attackers had almost open space. The Franco-German Frontier had so many troops advances by both sides were stopped cold.

The biggest lost opportunity of the German campaign was the opportunity to encircle Lanzerac's Fifth Army 20-24 August. A proper Heeresegruppe command of 2 Armies would have been netter placed to recognise and act upon this opportunity, and if not succeed at least attempt to encircle Lanzerac's 5th Army. SHould this be partly or mostly successful the German right wing will have little resistance until they get to Paris, which they likely will besiege. The biggest long term benefit would be the capture of the French Channel ports at least to Boulogne, which will allow Germany to put a strategic offensive-tactical defensive (the strongest form of warfare) against Britain.

As for the Navy, there was no professional head of the KM (like Jackie Fisher in the RN) responsible for overall coordination between the High Seas/Baltic fleets and North/Baltic/Flanders naval stations. No Feelt/station commander wanted to diminish his command, so when Flanders requested some destroyers High Sea Fleet would provide a litany of excuses why it was better for destroyers to do nothing in the North Sea than fight off Flanders. An overall commander would know when the Baltic froze, that the HSF was going to do nothing for a while, that Flanders was stalemated and move resources around to actually fight the naval war. Should the Germans be more successful against France and capture Channel ports this command structure would become a war winner.

 

[BooNZ]

Germany:
1 July 1914 - update the eastern deployment plan (estimated date of completion 4 July 1914)
31 July 1914 - guarantee Belgium territorial integrity
31 July 1914 - ratify the 1909 London Declaration
1 August 1914 - execute eastern deployment plan

 

[Derek Jackson]

Have sane leaders in Austria and Germany who decide to avoid war

 

[Kaiser of Brazil]

Have sane leaders in Austria and Germany who decide to avoid war

The war was inevitable, and with time Russia would modernize and become more powerful, the Germans wanted the war to start earlier if they wanted any chance to win.

 

[SpicyJuan]

No, manoeuvre was only possible where the attackers had almost open space. The Franco-German Frontier had so many troops advances by both sides were stopped cold.

The biggest lost opportunity of the German campaign was the opportunity to encircle Lanzerac's Fifth Army 20-24 August. A proper Heeresegruppe command of 2 Armies would have been netter placed to recognise and act upon this opportunity, and if not succeed at least attempt to encircle Lanzerac's 5th Army. SHould this be partly or mostly successful the German right wing will have little resistance until they get to Paris, which they likely will besiege. The biggest long term benefit would be the capture of the French Channel ports at least to Boulogne, which will allow Germany to put a strategic offensive-tactical defensive (the strongest form of warfare) against Britain.

As for the Navy, there was no professional head of the KM (like Jackie Fisher in the RN) responsible for overall coordination between the High Seas/Baltic fleets and North/Baltic/Flanders naval stations. No Feelt/station commander wanted to diminish his command, so when Flanders requested some destroyers High Sea Fleet would provide a litany of excuses why it was better for destroyers to do nothing in the North Sea than fight off Flanders. An overall commander would know when the Baltic froze, that the HSF was going to do nothing for a while, that Flanders was stalemated and move resources around to actually fight the naval war. Should the Germans be more successful against France and capture Channel ports this command structure would become a war winner.

Historically Verdun was almost cut off in 1914, no? It's not hard to imagine that if Lanzerac's Fifth Army is crushed that the desperate German attacks manage to encircle, if not, capture Verdun. I guess I don't see it as a direct result of a different command structure, rather a by product.

From G.J. Meyer, A World Undone

Around Verdun, where the French were hanging on by such a thin thread that Joffre twice authorized the commander of his Third Army to retreat if necessary, September 9 brought a final, convulsive German assault. The French had no reserves left, no way to seal up any holes in their front. They did, however, have the remains of their immensely strong defenses....

The Germans made a final unsuccessful effort to capture Verdun, which if taken would have given them an anchoring strongpoint from which to keep their armies on the Marne. Without Verdun, the Marne line was untenable. In pulling back, the Germans had to abandon valuable real estate—notably the rail junctions of Reims, Amiens, and Arras

 

[cjc]

No, manoeuvre was only possible where the attackers had almost open space. The Franco-German Frontier had so many troops advances by both sides were stopped cold.

The biggest lost opportunity of the German campaign was the opportunity to encircle Lanzerac's Fifth Army 20-24 August. A proper Heeresegruppe command of 2 Armies would have been netter placed to recognise and act upon this opportunity, and if not succeed at least attempt to encircle Lanzerac's 5th Army. SHould this be partly or mostly successful the German right wing will have little resistance until they get to Paris, which they likely will besiege. The biggest long term benefit would be the capture of the French Channel ports at least to Boulogne, which will allow Germany to put a strategic offensive-tactical defensive (the strongest form of warfare) against Britain.

As for the Navy, there was no professional head of the KM (like Jackie Fisher in the RN) responsible for overall coordination between the High Seas/Baltic fleets and North/Baltic/Flanders naval stations. No Feelt/station commander wanted to diminish his command, so when Flanders requested some destroyers High Sea Fleet would provide a litany of excuses why it was better for destroyers to do nothing in the North Sea than fight off Flanders. An overall commander would know when the Baltic froze, that the HSF was going to do nothing for a while, that Flanders was stalemated and move resources around to actually fight the naval war. Should the Germans be more successful against France and capture Channel ports this command structure would become a war winner.

Similar whith the bef, the head of the first army thot the British where at Lily to his right as the battle of the mons was bring fought which keeped both the 2 HKK and an infratry corps from out fanking and destroying the bef, and as the British army was reatiting he thot the BEF was reatiting to the French fifth army instead of away leading to most of the first army facing the completly rong direction when a huge traffic jam left the intiere BEF traped and slow at la chato. Proper army group cimand could have keep both of these situations from happening.

 

[SpicyJuan]

Similar whith the bef, the head of the first army thot the British where at Lily to his right as the battle of the mons was bring fought which keeped both the 2 HKK and an infratry corps from out fanking and destroying the bef, and as the British army was reatiting he thot the BEF was reatiting to the French fifth army instead of away leading to most of the first army facing the completly rong direction when a huge traffic jam left the intiere BEF traped and slow at la chato. Proper army group cimand could have keep bitg of these situations from happening.

Impossible to imagine the consequences if both the BEF and French 5th were crushed

 

[cjc]

Impossible to imagine the consequences if both the BEF and French 5th were crushed

Well there would be nothing between the Germans and Paris untill the 6th army is formed and even then the French don't have enuff forces to launch a counter attack at marine, which is bad becuse the French nearly collapsed at the points where the 1st and 2ed army attacked the 6th and 5th.

 

[Jukra]

For Germany - Have a proper naval war plan, in fact, make a plan in which the Navy supports the Army operations.

In the Baltic, occupy Åland isles as coup de main operation - easy, as they're demilitarized in peacetime. This will draw out Russian fleet out, or gain a nice basing area for light forces.

In the North Sea, deploy all submarines in the English Channel in order to hinder transport of BEF to France. Support sub operations by light force deployments.

Conduct offensive mining in English coast.

 

[Catspoke]

How possible is it for Germany to crash import stuff, with a month to do it (and maybe longer if you avoid Declaring war on France and Belgium as in the OP). It seems like you could crash buy copper, rubber, nickel, nitrates?????

Can the German get the older ACs like the Roon class ready if they mobilize their naval reservists, it seems like these could be used to escort merchants home in the first few days of war, then commerce raid.

A handful of MGs with ammo shipped fast to the colonies could really help their defense.

 

[marathag]

Have sane leaders in Austria and Germany who decide to avoid war

Then blame Russia for doing a General Mobilization against them. Once that started, most of the Countries were on autopilot to disaster.

There was no reason for the Russians to do that over Serbia, they didn't even have a Treaty

 

[cjc]

Then blame Russia for doing a General Mobilization against them. Once that started, most of the Countries were on autopilot to disaster.

There was no reason for the Russians to do that over Serbia, they didn't even have a Treaty

Or maby have the Serbian government not support terrorist organizations, that would have also helped.

 

[Riain]

Impossible to imagine the consequences if both the BEF and French 5th were crushed

It wouldn't be good for the Entente, that's for sure.

 

[Riain]

Historically Verdun was almost cut off in 1914, no? It's not hard to imagine that if Lanzerac's Fifth Army is crushed that the desperate German attacks manage to encircle, if not, capture Verdun. I guess I don't see it as a direct result of a different command structure, rather a by product.

From G.J. Meyer, A World Undone

I'm no expert on the left flank, but I thought Ruprecht's offensive basically got nowhere and once it was stopped forces started to get transferred to the right wing. I'm not aware that this offensive threatened to encircle Verdun.

In any case, better command would not have allowed this offensive at all. The grand plan was to attack on the right wing, once the French offensive petered out the left wing should have been stripped of troops and they should have been transferred to the right wing. It's unlikely that many would get to the Marne in time but certainly they would have allowed the Germans to win the Race to the Sea.

 

[Riain]

For Germany - Have a proper naval war plan, in fact, make a plan in which the Navy supports the Army operations.

In the Baltic, occupy Åland isles as coup de main operation - easy, as they're demilitarized in peacetime. This will draw out Russian fleet out, or gain a nice basing area for light forces.

In the North Sea, deploy all submarines in the English Channel in order to hinder transport of BEF to France. Support sub operations by light force deployments.

Conduct offensive mining in English coast.

Yes, all of this would be good, it would also be nice to avoid the defeat in Heligoland Bight on 28 August 1914.

I'd also add plan for a Marine division to follow the Army with the express mission of occupying the coastal ports, there were virtually no forces that could oppose them in September 1914.

Of course there is nobody that could have arranged this because nobody was actually in charge of the Navy.

https://www.naval-history.net/XGW-GermanNavy1914-1918.htm

Highest Level of Leadership and Organisation - Kaiser Wilhelm II was the Commander-in-Chief of the Kaiserliche Marine. All power and authority was in his hands. All decisions and orders were made and issued by him and not just in his name. There was no single senior component of the KM to either advise or challenge his authority.

The administration of the KM was not a coherent unified body capable of either advising or carrying out his orders. The KM was divided in to a number of components, all of which were in a direct line of command to the Kaiser. There was no admiral in overall command of the KM. There was no equivalent of the First Sea Lord or the US Chief of Naval Operations. This was a recipe for bureaucratic rivalry, and confusion in the implementation of policies.

These bodies were:

1. The Naval Cabinet
2. The Admiralty Staff
3. The Imperial Naval Administration
4. The Inspector-General of the Navy
5. The Baltic Naval Station
6. The North Sea Naval Station
7. The High Seas Fleet
8. The Overseas Squadrons
The Naval Cabinet was an integral part of the Imperial Household whose principal tasks were promotions and appointments of officers, and the drafting and issuing of the Kaiser's orders.
The Admiralty Staff was created 14.3.1899 when the Kaiser ordered the disbandment of the Navy High Command. He took over personal command of the Navy and left a small staff to gather intelligence, and prepare plans for operations. It was a purely advisory body with no executive powers. It was similar to the Royal Navy War Staff 1912-1917 but never became the equivalent of the RN's Naval Staff of 1917-1918.
The Imperial Naval Administration [Reichsmarineamt] was the equivalent of the Admiralty in Britain or the Navy Department in the USA. It was a government ministry subject to the overall direction of the Chancellor. The head of the Imperial Naval Administration [the State Secretary] was the equivalent of the First Lord of the Admiralty, or the Secretary of the Navy. His range of powers were more limited but he was in charge of budgets, relations with the Reichstag in terms of legal authority for his particular areas of interest which were the ship-building programmes.
The Inspector-General of the Navy was responsible for the efficiency of various components of the navy. The Inspector General from 1.01.09 to 10.8.19 was Prince Henry of Prussia [the Kaiser's brother]. The prince was also supreme commander in the Baltic and therefore superior to the commander Baltic Naval Station.
The Baltic Naval Station was one of two commands which reflected the geographic division of the German coastline. It combined administration, support and operations in its headquarters at Kiel.
The North Sea Naval Station had similar responsibilities as the Baltic Naval Station. Headquarters were located at Wilhelmshaven. In addition, it was the 'host' for the High Seas Fleet.

What a shit-show.

 

[BooNZ]

Impossible to imagine the consequences if both the BEF and French 5th were crushed

The consequences are easy enough to imagine, the execution is far more challenging. A rout is possible, but based on OTL western front in 1914, 1915, 1916, 1917 and 1918 - the one sided destruction of significant forces would require the Entente forces to sh*t the bed far more than OTL and I doubt you can get 'so much custard out of such a small cat'.

In my opinion the best the Germans could hope for is the French 5th rout, followed by a Benny Hill style persuit of the BEF across Belgium, until the Germans become exhausted due to the limitations of logistics.