They certainly had a better chance against the Soviet Union who was already fighting for their life against Germany than they did against the anger and might of the United States.
In the long-term, probably. But that's only because the United States was quite literally the most powerful country on the freaking planet.
Please read a story titled "Hokushin The Second Russo-Japanese War" which can be found in the book titled "Rising Sun Victorious The Alternate History Of How The Japanese Won The Pacific War" The book was published in 2001.
I have (though not in several years). It was okay to read, but low on the plausibility side. These kind of stories have a bad habit of ignoring little details like troop numbers, equipment, etc. to achieve their final goal. The fact is however that the Soviet Union maintained a force in the Far East which NEVER decreased throughout the war, and actually increased as those more experienced soldiers were eventually drawn on in later years (the mythical Siberian divisions at Moscow in '41 were actually from Central Asia, Siberia's a big place). Those soldiers were replaced with LARGER complements of Soviet troops, who while green were equipped with more artillery and heavy weapons than those they replaced.
Remember Khalkin Gol? Japan suffered 45,000 casualties to the Soviet Union's 22,000. The Kwantung Army would be mauled attacking the Soviet Far Eastern front. And it would all be. For. Nothing.
No gains whatsoever, no resources, no great victory which MIGHT draw your enemies to the table (it wouldn't of course, but Japan didn't know that). You've just sacrificed everything Japan is aiming to achieve, given up the one chance of winning those resources, you've lost China. And it was all for nothing.
Why would they do so?
They didn't. Not without a PoD that is slightly earlier than in June 1941. The Japanese would have a better chance only if USSR started falling apart.
Well they did, but only in the same manner that *rolls dice* Costa Rica has of standing a better chance against China than the US. Its doomed either way, but the US is more powerful currently. The chance is still so small as to render it irrelevant...