Best possible performance of Japan in WWII?

No, no, no, no.

Going up against the USSR is even more suicidal than attacking Pearl Harbor, in the short term at least. Unlike the US the USSR has recently shown its ability to thrash the Japanese, and maintains a superior force in the Far East to combat such an eventuality. A full invasion of Siberia would have been a disaster.

Not to mention THERE'S NO FREAKING POINT. Japan went south for resources, not because they looked at the Pacific and thought "you know, that's nice vacation area." Siberia has nothing Japan wants (within reach/discovered). Attacking the Soviet Union will see the IJA being bloodily repulsed, and getting to look forward to the eventual Soviet wrath as soon as Germany is getting driven back out of the USSR.


They certainly had a better chance against the Soviet Union who was already fighting for their life against Germany than they did against the anger and might of the United States.

Please read a story titled "Hokushin The Second Russo-Japanese War" which can be found in the book titled "Rising Sun Victorious The Alternate History Of How The Japanese Won The Pacific War" The book was published in 2001.
 
They certainly had a better chance against the Soviet Union who was already fighting for their life against Germany than they did against the anger and might of the United States.

Please read a story titled "Hokushin The Second Russo-Japanese War" which can be found in the book titled "Rising Sun Victorious The Alternate History Of How The Japanese Won The Pacific War" The book was published in 2001.

They didn't. Not without a PoD that is slightly earlier than in June 1941. The Japanese would have a better chance only if USSR started falling apart.
 
They certainly had a better chance against the Soviet Union who was already fighting for their life against Germany than they did against the anger and might of the United States.

In the long-term, probably. But that's only because the United States was quite literally the most powerful country on the freaking planet.

Please read a story titled "Hokushin The Second Russo-Japanese War" which can be found in the book titled "Rising Sun Victorious The Alternate History Of How The Japanese Won The Pacific War" The book was published in 2001.

I have (though not in several years). It was okay to read, but low on the plausibility side. These kind of stories have a bad habit of ignoring little details like troop numbers, equipment, etc. to achieve their final goal. The fact is however that the Soviet Union maintained a force in the Far East which NEVER decreased throughout the war, and actually increased as those more experienced soldiers were eventually drawn on in later years (the mythical Siberian divisions at Moscow in '41 were actually from Central Asia, Siberia's a big place). Those soldiers were replaced with LARGER complements of Soviet troops, who while green were equipped with more artillery and heavy weapons than those they replaced.

Remember Khalkin Gol? Japan suffered 45,000 casualties to the Soviet Union's 22,000. The Kwantung Army would be mauled attacking the Soviet Far Eastern front. And it would all be. For. Nothing.

No gains whatsoever, no resources, no great victory which MIGHT draw your enemies to the table (it wouldn't of course, but Japan didn't know that). You've just sacrificed everything Japan is aiming to achieve, given up the one chance of winning those resources, you've lost China. And it was all for nothing.

Why would they do so?

They didn't. Not without a PoD that is slightly earlier than in June 1941. The Japanese would have a better chance only if USSR started falling apart.

Well they did, but only in the same manner that *rolls dice* Costa Rica has of standing a better chance against China than the US. Its doomed either way, but the US is more powerful currently. The chance is still so small as to render it irrelevant...
 
I am not married to the scenario of Japan defeating the Soviets in the Far East, just presenting a possible scenario someone else dreamed up.

Personally I do not think that Japan had any realistic chance against any Western Power. They had too little resources, too little industry and too much inferior equipment. Their achievements in World War II were truly remarkable, I do not see how they could do much better, unless they realized that the Americans were reading their mail and changed their coding system, preferably before Midway.
 
Join the Allies in exchange for concessions in China and Dutch East Indies

And later perhaps become the Germany of the post-war East Asian economic bloc
 
Japanese Naval Preparations - Aircraft Carriers

The Japanese built 8 large liners that could be converted to light fleet carriers and 4 of them were. However, they were too slow to work with the fleet and were therefore used as aircraft transports and training ships. The Japanese also built 7 auxiliaries that could be converted to light fleet carriers and the 5 that were actually converted were fast enough for fleet work.

ITTL the Japanese built 12 large liners that could be converted to light fleet carriers, which is in line with the 50% increase in the size of the Japanese merchant marine. However, the IJN decided that they were more valuable as troop ships and decided to convert more of the auxiliaries.

Therefore in May 1941 it was decided that the seaplane carriers Chitose, Chiyoda and Mizuho (completed 1938-39) would be converted into aircraft carriers. Mizuhio was the first and was completed in September 1941 instead of the converted liner Taiyo. Chitose was converted between 25th November 1941 and 31st May 1942 in place of the converted liner Unyo. The Chiyoda was converted between June 1942 and 25th November 1942 in place of the converted liner Chuyo. It was also decided that the seaplane carrier Nisshin which was still under construction should be completed as an aircraft carrier and she commissioned in May 1942.

The resources used for the real conversions of Chitose and Chiyoda in 1943 were used to complete the 2 Ibuki class heavy cruisers as light fleet carriers. Only one was laid down IOTL, but more steel allowed the second one to be laid down ITTL. The resources put into the converting the liners Kaiyo and Shinyo (formerly the German liner Scharnhorst) and the conversions of the battleships Ise and Hyuga into hybrid carriers IOTL were used to convert more Shimane Maru type tankers to escort carriers. As Japanese merchant shipbuilding in 1944 was at least doubled the planned number of 1TL and 2TL based escort carriers was doubled to 12 of which at least 4 were completed.

The 8 large liners already referred to do not include the ships that became Hiyo and Junyo. Unlike the other liner conversions they were (just) fast enough to operate with the fleet and carried 54 aircraft instead of 27 so they could be classed as full fleet carriers instead of light fleet carriers. All other things being equal 3 ships would have been built ITTL in line with the 50% increase in the Japanese merchant marine. However, I really want to knock out another pair of proper fleet carriers of the Shokaku class.

Increased steel production made possible by increased iron ore imports (in turn due to the 50% increase in the merchant fleet and the earlier introduction of convoys) allowed the 6 Unryu class to be built as Tahio class ships and the first 3 would be completed by the end of 1944.

I don't see the point in building 2 fleet carriers instead of Yamato and Mushashi as the Americans would build an extra pair of Yorktowns to counter them. However, 2 Tahios were built in place of Shinano and No. 111. By this time the Americans were building warships to their maximum capacity so they couldn't build any more Essex class. That increases the number begun ITTL to 9, but only 6 would be completed before the end of 1944.
 
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Most of the issues with the Mark 14 torpedo were solved by 1943, so an increased amount of Japanese shipping only means a target-rich environment, especially as they also sucked at ASW.
 
What would happen if Japan decided early on that they could not hope to defeat USA in the short-medium term and that the only way for them to challenge them in the long term was to exploit China (doesn't have to work - just be plausible).

Effectively the IJA is in charge.

Japan doesn't build a blue water navy to chew up fuel. Instead it concentrates on subs and land based air. A bit like USSR vs USA in the Cold War

All the steel goes into a decent armoured corps and the fuel provides for more mobility.

Trade technology for coal to oil and subs with Germany

Aim would be to have a series of client States like Manchuria throughout China and possibly further if European colonies in Indochina can be encouraged to revolt.

If war comes with the USA then the "Pearl Harbor" moment is a massive surge of IJN submarines ambushing USN fleet elements. The goal would be to make an offensive USA strategy so costly that an accommodation can be reached in China.

Effectively its a "German" strategy in the East with China substituted for Russia and the submarine campaign aimed at choking off the major opponent.

Of course it didn't work for Germany either ;)
 
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