Best possible outcomes for the Guanches

The Guanches was the name of the indigenous population of the Canary Islands (Tenerife specifically, but the name came to encompass all Canary natives). Originally probably descended from several waves of Berbers who arrived from NA, over the 2 millennia or so that they’ve lived on the islands, they came into sparse and intermittent contact with the outside world. Eventually, they were gradually conquered by the Castilian crown, their culture was effectively eradicated, their homes colonized, and the Canary Islands became just another outpost within the massive Spanish empire. Although genetic studies show that modern Spanish Canarians are partly descended from the Guanches, the Guanches as a people-group didn’t survive to the present. However, I don’t think that’s inevitable. I can think of at least 3 possible PoDs:

1. A pre-colonization PoD. Some of the islands (specifically Tenerife, the largest one which was also last to be conquered) were sometimes united under a single ruler. Tenerife for example was unified by a king named “Tinerfe the Great” in the late 14th century, though it was split among his sons following his death. Contact with Europe started in the early 14th century, and several groups - Genoese, Majorcans, Portuguese, Castillians - had shown some interest in the islands. There were raiding expeditions, missions, and at some point an attempts at conquest during the 14th century. What if, at some point, Tinerfe or some other Guanche ruler becomes intrigued by the possibilities of the metal weapons and ocean-going vessels brought by the foreigners, and takes an interest in conversion to Christianity via one of the missionaries landing the islands? In exchange for some metal weapons and recognition from the Pope, he becomes a vassal of one of the European monarchs, and begins building an autonomous, Christian Guanche state. Perhaps this state is eventually conquered, or remains only a vassal under one of the European empires, but Guanche culture survives - the islands remain mostly populated by Guanches, speaking the Guanche language, and with the presence of a local Guanche elite which preserves indigenous culture and identity, with continuity to the modern day.

2. Betencurian PoD - in the early 15th century, a French mercenary named Jean de Bethencourt landed on the island of Lanzarote, and from there began the conquest of several islands in the Canaries. He was recognized by the pope as “king of the Canary Islands”, and had the King of Castille as his overlord. Eventually, the Castillians deposed his dynasty and annexed the islands directly, after his heir tried to sell the islands to the Portuguese and also sparked a native revolt. Following this, the rest of the islands were slowly conquered and subsumed into the Spanish empire. However, had Béthencourt and his heirs been more successful and wiser, and managed to unite the island without causing an incident with their overlord or revolt from the natives, I can see the Canaries surviving as a semi-autonomous state for several centuries. While the upper elite of the kingdom will be composed mostly of the descendants of the first French mercenaries, the majority of the population at the early stages will still be indigenous. IOTL the de Bethencourts weren’t great friends of the native, trying to enslave some of them, and ultimately they were still just foreign invaders in the eyes of the Guanches. However with Spain being only indirectly involved, it’s possible that the Kingdom would grow to rely on the Guanches for manpower and tax base, and eventually this would requires the European colonizers to recognize some of the rights of the Guanches, possibly elevating some Guanches into a sort of bureaucratic middle-class. The language could evolve into a sort of Franco-Spanish-Guanche creole. Economically, it would fund itself by trading sugar and wine, which iirc began to be cultivated on the Canaries soon after colonization.

3. Post-colonization PoD. Tenerife, which was conquered during the 1490’s, was divided between several kingdoms at the time of conquest, ruled by the descendants of King Tinerfe. Some of the local rulers supported the Spanish, while others resisted violently. Though the natives had some victories, they couldn’t hold on forever and in a few years were all subjugated, with many of their people killed or enslaved. Now I don’t think the Guanches can resist militarily for long, not at this stage at least, even if they’d been united against the Spanish. However, what if they did the opposite - united in support of them? Had they peacefully accepted Spanish rule, they might have 1. Avoided the physical destruction of many of them and 2. Retained some level of autonomy, with their own local elite who might eventually achieve recognition as Spanish nobility. In this case, the islands would still be colonized, however a distinct Guanche identity and culture would remain, and eventually I’d imagine a situation similar to modern day Peru or Bolivia, where Spanish culture is dominant but most of the population is still at least partly descendent from indigenous people and indigenous culture and language still survives in some places.

Some of the difficulties we have to address:
- the Guanches were in many ways at stone-age level of technology, with no things such as metallurgy, large urban settlements, or sailing. A small isolated group in these kinds of condition isn’t usually able to hold out very well against large invading empires.
- there was very little contact between the different islands. I believe they didn’t even have any boats to travel with between the isles (iirc). This means that when we talk about “surviving Guanches”, we’re talking about various different groups which wouldn’t necessarily be interested in maintaining their distinct identity.
-I have no idea how many Guanches there even were. Considering by the numbers they were reported to have been able to muster during the Spanish conquest of Tenerife, it seems that Tenerife alone was home to a few tens of thousands of people. But I don’t know how close of an estimate that is. Obviously, the smaller the pre-colonization population is, the easier it is to colonize and eradicate.

Thoughts?
 
The Guanche actually had some things going for them. They had chicken, sheep and goats, plus grains. While there was no metal, they did have stones and obsidian, What they didn't have was a navigational package that would allow them to expand and colonize Macaronesia. Maybe have a Phoenician shipwreck off the the Canary Islands where the survivors teach the local Guanche about boat building and navigation.
 
The Guanches was the name of the indigenous population of the Canary Islands (Tenerife specifically, but the name came to encompass all Canary natives). Originally probably descended from several waves of Berbers who arrived from NA, over the 2 millennia or so that they’ve lived on the islands, they came into sparse and intermittent contact with the outside world. Eventually, they were gradually conquered by the Castilian crown, their culture was effectively eradicated, their homes colonized, and the Canary Islands became just another outpost within the massive Spanish empire. Although genetic studies show that modern Spanish Canarians are partly descended from the Guanches, the Guanches as a people-group didn’t survive to the present. However, I don’t think that’s inevitable. I can think of at least 3 possible PoDs:

1. A pre-colonization PoD. Some of the islands (specifically Tenerife, the largest one which was also last to be conquered) were sometimes united under a single ruler. Tenerife for example was unified by a king named “Tinerfe the Great” in the late 14th century, though it was split among his sons following his death. Contact with Europe started in the early 14th century, and several groups - Genoese, Majorcans, Portuguese, Castillians - had shown some interest in the islands. There were raiding expeditions, missions, and at some point an attempts at conquest during the 14th century. What if, at some point, Tinerfe or some other Guanche ruler becomes intrigued by the possibilities of the metal weapons and ocean-going vessels brought by the foreigners, and takes an interest in conversion to Christianity via one of the missionaries landing the islands? In exchange for some metal weapons and recognition from the Pope, he becomes a vassal of one of the European monarchs, and begins building an autonomous, Christian Guanche state. Perhaps this state is eventually conquered, or remains only a vassal under one of the European empires, but Guanche culture survives - the islands remain mostly populated by Guanches, speaking the Guanche language, and with the presence of a local Guanche elite which preserves indigenous culture and identity, with continuity to the modern day.
Frankly if you want something closest to a Guanche Canaries, your best bet would to have it be colonized by Muslim Berbers instead in a more gradual fashion and then not have it be conquered by the Spanish, I have little hope that ANY kind of serious contact and influence of islands from outside wouldn't bring demise to the culture of the divided, isolated and thinly populated islands as we know them and indeed any kind of Christianization or Islamization already radically alter the culture, sure ultimately a lot of Europe and the MENA region experienced similar changes and they were gradual but they ARE changes nonetheless.
Sure in theory you could have Guanches emulated what non-Christian emerging states did during the middle ages but in practice can that really happen in the late medieval environment? It seems to me that this type of POD ultimately ends up looking more and more like a different version of the 2nd POD and it's also important to consider that even if one Guanche chiefdom ends up conquering the rest with foreign support, you are still seeing the demise of SOME of the Guanche sub-cultures in various islands, the spread of technologies in human history was a mix of more peaceful adoption through trade to expansion through demographics and migration, while you can try to conjure a timeline where there is adoption by any Guanche chiefdom ultimately you will still have this chiefdom(and likely relevant amount of foreign people joining in) takeover the others and likely impose their identity and culture which is being radically shifted by the adoption of a foreign religion and of course all the kind of changes you experience with political and technological shifts like this. Now those shifts could be more gradual compared to OTL and likely would be done on a native basis instead of having direct acculturation into a new culture but in the long term I'm not sure what would happen if the Canaries still end up under Iberian rule(in both the Christian and Muslim scenario) or if they end up under Moroccan rule(in the Muslim scenario).
I can see the Canaries surviving as a semi-autonomous state for several centuries. While the upper elite of the kingdom will be composed mostly of the descendants of the first French mercenaries, the majority of the population at the early stages will still be indigenous. IOTL the de Bethencourts weren’t great friends of the native, trying to enslave some of them, and ultimately they were still just foreign invaders in the eyes of the Guanches. However with Spain being only indirectly involved, it’s possible that the Kingdom would grow to rely on the Guanches for manpower and tax base, and eventually this would requires the European colonizers to recognize some of the rights of the Guanches, possibly elevating some Guanches into a sort of bureaucratic middle-class. The language could evolve into a sort of Franco-Spanish-Guanche creole. Economically, it would fund itself by trading sugar and wine, which iirc began to be cultivated on the Canaries soon after colonization.
I think even in this scenario the Guanche population would eventually become a minority of the populations, especially in the context of the expanding maritime trades to the Americas and Africa. Also it's not like Spaniards couldn't settle in non-Spanish territories, afterall Flemish people participated in the settlement of the Azores.
I also strongly disagree that a creole would form, they generally don't, a creole did not form when the Romans conquered Gaul or Hispania, it did not form when the Slavs expanded over the Balkans or Central Europe. Even Maltese can hardly be called a creole, on the other hand if you think that Guanche could survive as an heavily Latinized language, maybe but I'm heavily skeptical given there is still going to be a big degree of demographic turnover and the Maltese situation is frankly an exception.

Politically I find doubtful that they would remain especially autonomous for so long if Europeans still expand and trade oversea as OTL and in any case the internal division in the Spanish state didn't really stop castillization of Aragon for example.
In this case, the islands would still be colonized, however a distinct Guanche identity and culture would remain, and eventually I’d imagine a situation similar to modern day Peru or Bolivia, where Spanish culture is dominant but most of the population is still at least partly descendent from indigenous people and indigenous culture and language still survives in some places.
I don't see how a distinct formally Guanche identity could remain when Guanches were hardly united even within any given larger island to begin with. Also the example of Peru and Bolivia is too extreme, at best it could look like the more mixed and European places of Latin America. If the Guanches don't form a caste or a separated group of people then you would see mixing and the formation of regional culture more influenced by Guanche culture but not formally Guanche because no such basis exists.

For both this PoD and the previous one I have hard time seeing the correlation between the "peacefulness" of the conquest(oxymoron) and the continuation of Guanche ancestry and/or culture, from the genetic studies I see Guanche ancestry is relatively smooth across the islands, although I'm not sure if autosomal studies can even distinguish Guanche ancestry from ancestry of North African slaves brought to sugar plantations.
Maybe you have an example in La Gomera where one study showed particularly high North African ancestry and the island was incorporated diplomatically but another study with more samples shows it to be rather on the middle of the range, not even having the most Guanche/North African ancestry, also although the initial incorporation of the island was peaceful there was still warfare due to rebellions, but this if anything shows that you can't really expect a peaceful transition, it seems either the Guanche rebel or they are they are seemingly mishandled by their new rulers which in the long term hardly helps with the survival of Guanche culture or ancestry.

-I have no idea how many Guanches there even were. Considering by the numbers they were reported to have been able to muster during the Spanish conquest of Tenerife, it seems that Tenerife alone was home to a few tens of thousands of people. But I don’t know how close of an estimate that is. Obviously, the smaller the pre-colonization population is, the easier it is to colonize and eradicate.
Somewhere around 20-80k, which is a big range but all figures pale in comparison to its estimated population of 200k in 1700, which shows that in theory even if 0 Guanches were killed and if 50-80% of that growth was trough immigration from Europe and internal growth of that community, the European colonizers would become at least majority.

It easy to blame the specific OTL timeline for the demise of the Guanches but insofar as the islands become an important stop-point for European traders and insofar as the demographic and technological conditions of the islands are the same, it's hard to imagine that any foreign conquest wouldn't bring similar radical shifts, even if not as radical. The 70-80% demographic turnover was far beyond what was needed for complete assimilation of locals to happen, even if you try to make this figure smaller and smaller insofar as you have foreign conquest I think the foreign language will dominated as it is the language of trade(between the islands), of the elites(even assimilated ones), of writing, of the new religion and of the new settlers. I think only your first POD can have the Guanche language survive, although it can easily still go the way of many Berber regions of Morocco or like the native languages in the Americas(even in places were Spanish ancestry is lower)
 
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