Best Possible Alternate Outcome: Japan, 1933-1953

In your opinion, what would be the best possible outcome for Japan for the twenty years starting in 1933? What happens over the next twenty years as a result of the change(s)?
 
Avoid war. Do not invade China, and do not join WWII.

Continue to build Manchukuo as a Manchurian puppet state, but build internal legitimacy as a vehicle for Manchurian nationalism (difficult because much of population is actually Han Chinese, but a real option).

Position Japan as advocate for Asian nationalism against European colonialism.

If France falls to Germany in a OTL 1940 scenario, exploit it on a limited basis. Without Japan engaged in a war in China, I wonder if they could occupy Indochina and weaken French hold over it since France knows Japan isn't already prepared for war. However, I think ti might be possible to scare France and probably Netherlands into granting concessions to Japan and give some kind of support to the colonial nationalists. However, one possible option is to move directly against Vichy France as a Nazi collaborator and occupy Indochina on "behalf" of the Allies.

Assuming a German invasion of Soviet Union, Japan can likely extort some concessions from Stalin in exchange for neutrality. Without being bogged down in China, the threat of Japanese intervention is much higher. Stalin might give all of Sakhalin, agree to border adjustments along Manchukuo's border, and concede any of its remaining claims in Manchuria.
 

problem with this is that China, unfettered by external invasion, eventually crushes the communists and the warlords, unites under the nationalists, rebuilds it's army and intelligentsia, and then goes on the offensive in Manchukuo, Manchuria, and Korea. Probably chasing the Japanese off the mainland by the early 50s
 
Not possible. ASB.

Theoretically possible if IGHQ refused to back an invasion after the Marco Polo Bridge incident. If Japan had focused solely on staying neutral and building up Manchuria they could have emerged from WWII with near-superpower status and would have served as a powerful counterweight to Soviet influence in East Asia.
 
The Emperor both comes out against the militarists and has Hitler-esque luck in dodging the subsequent assassination attempts, with the bonus of being able to use them as justification to get rid of said militarists.

Needless to say, that is rather a tall order. Firstly, because of how the collective consensus aspect of Japanese culture ensured the Emperor's silence on these matters and secondly because the Japanese militarists (who have plenty of experience in the matter) are not likely to be as amateurish in their attempts as the guys who tried to go after Hitler.
 
The Emperor both comes out against the militarists and has Hitler-esque luck in dodging the subsequent assassination attempts, with the bonus of being able to use them as justification to get rid of said militarists.

But for what point? The Emperor has no seer-like powers and can't look into the future; for all he knew Japan was getting larger on the world map. And that was great for him and his Empire.
 
Somehow avoid the mess in China.
In 1939, make a deal with Britain and the Netherlands for DEI oil in exchange for industrial production - escorts and freighters would be welcome.
Stick to this deal and don't invade Indochina, except alongside the British, Dutch and Free French to crush Vichy.
No US embargo, no Pacific War.
WW2 ends with Japan as an opponent of Communism and an ally of the US and UK.

Problems - avoiding the China mess in the 1930s, and avoiding a war with China over Manchukuo in 1950s which has a good chance of going nuclear because of US support. :(
 
I think the problem is, as people have pointed out, that you need to find a way to avoid the chaos of intervention in China. Post 1933 this is very hard. Already the military was assuming a clear voice within Japanese politics. You need to shake up the situation more generally. So here is my attempt:

Jan 1934 Hirohito suffers a devastating stroke, leaving him debilitated but not dead. A regency council is put in place to help effectively govern Japan during his convalescence.

July 1934 Impatient with the lack of progress, Chiang Kai-Shek launches the Fifth Encirclement Campaign as another all-out assault instead of a slow strangulation of the CCP. KMT forces suffer a major defeat against the communists who launch their own offensive south into Guangdong threatening core economic areas of the Republic and sparking off new waves of Anti-KMT revolts.

Late 1934 Stalin begins to contemplate intervention in China. Increasingly aware of Soviet ambitions, the Japanese army concentrates on building up Manchuria rather than striking into China itself.

Early 1935 Fighting continues in China as Communist insurgents gain ground and former allies abandon Chiang and the KMT. Furthermore Chiang faces increasing pressure from the left-wing of the KMT and other figures to negotiate a settlement with the CCP.

Late 1935 Anti-Communist paranoia running high, Japanese Army launches an undeclared attack on the Soviet East after a series of border-clashes. The resulting Battle of Khalkhyn Temple sees the Japanese force soundly defeated by the Soviets. Kwantung Army officers are humiliated and General Ueda is forced to resign in disgrace.

Early 1936 Emboldened by this military humiliation civilian politicians on the regency council push through elections. Conservative Rikken Seiyukai form a majority.

February 1936 - 2-26 Incident happens as planned but this time the focus of the plotters is on "restoring" Prince Chichibu as head of the government rather than Hirohito himself. The plotters kill a number of ministers and try to seize the Imperial Palace but are defeated as OTL. Prince Chichibu implicates himself in the plot somehow and is forced to resign from the regency council on "heath" grounds. The strain is too much for an ailing Hirohito who dies, leaving his two year old son as Emperor.

1936 - the Civilian Government, emboldened by the resignations in the military triggered by the 2-26 incident and the public belief that the plot somehow killed the sick Hirohito through stress, are able to maneuver more moderate officers into key roles in the army and navy. Officers with suspected ultra-nationalist sympathies are sidelined or blackmarked. In time the 2-26 incident comes to be seen as the moment the political violence in 1930s Japan reached a peak before ebbing away.

1937 - Soviet Union makes increasingly aggressive moves in arming and supporting the CCP, yanking the rug out from under Chiang's feet by withdrawing their support for the KMT. Communists make gains in China and Chiang's fragile coalition begins to fall apart completely. Alarmed by events in China the USA and the UK both make increasingly positive overtures to the Japanese Government, including inviting it to return to the League of Nations in late 1937.

1938-1940s - Japan remains neutral in WWII but, as Chinese Civil War develops and Soviet influence is distracted by events in Europe, acts with British and American blessing to prop up the anti-Communist forces in China.

Ultimately it ends the 20 year period a more stable, if old-fashioned, conservative democracy.
 
They can't because they don't want to face another group of highschoolers screaming banzai and wielding katanas, resulting in half the cabinet dead or something.

Historically following the February 26th Incident (1936) the government and the Emperor were able to clamp down hard on just this sort of thing. That incident (aside from the failed coup at the end of the war, and even then there was suspicion that was sponsored by some very senior figures) was in fact the last major episode of 'gekokujo' for the entire duration of the Japanese Empire and resulted in the executions of all the chief conspirators.
 
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