Best POD????? US & CS -- But No ACW

I am looking for the best POD that allows a Recognizable US, the splits into the US & CS about the same time as OTL --But where the US allows the CS to Leave peacefully.

Any Ideas or Mini TLs welcome
 
Hmmm...
Well, as much as I'd love to see a TL where the CS becomes independent without a civil war..it's quite hard to pull off.
Anyway, here's a shot:
The way that I see it, if you get Abe Lincoln to die before he becomes the Republican golden boy and someone less daring(with similar amounts of popularity) replaces him and wins the presidency, we can have a good shot.

The CS secedes per OTL, as do the OTL 'border states' who attempted to secede (Maryland, Kentucky, etc...) and succeed unmolested (no unconstitutional arresting of legislatures).

The unfortunate union president, unwilling to face a Confederacy bolstered by the borderstate populations to levels similar to that of his own nation in a bloody war, acknowledges the CSA as a legitimate and sovereign nation. Britain, France, and Prussia follow shortly, offering alliances and trade aggreements.

Boom.

USA? Check.
CSA? Check.
No civil war (yet)? Check.

That's my two cents.
 
Keep the Idiots in Charleston from firing on Sumter and Lincoln has no cause to give his call for Volunteers. This could keep VA,TN, NC, and ARK from leaving. Kentucky is overwhelmingly Pro Union and is not leaving. Forget about the Russellville Convention as it was within 25 miles of Camp Boone a major mustering ground for Tennessee Militia as well as several RGTS of the KY Orphans Brigade.
Alt POD have Buchanan remove the Garrison at Sumter, no CSA shelling of a Union position no cause belli.
 
Kentucky, Maryland, and probably Missouri are only going to be Confederate States if the CSA can conquer them and establish puppet governments. But TTL has no ACW.

About the only way you can get this is the Republicans elect a candidate who will let the South just go and the Confederates are smart enough not to fire on Union military facilities anywhere.

Neither is very likely, but that would lead to a 7 state CSA as the actions that lead Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas, and Tennesse to secede in OTL do not occur. That leaves a CSA with about 55% of the population and 45% of the manufacturing that OTL did.
 
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