Best PoD for Greater Germany Unification: 1848 or 1866 ?

General Zod

Banned
If every implausible PoD as you want to happen magically happens, yes things would happen as you describe. However, as I've said before, such a timeline is less an alternate history than ASB. Let me poke just one hole as to why this is firmly in ASB territory; the south German particularism had NOTHING to do with how successful or pathetic the Hapsburgs were, and everything to do with not becoming Prussianized. Nothing short of a defensive war against France would have brought them in with the Prussians, and killing of Abel-Austria by Cain-Prussia most definitely would not have brought them to Prussian views. In fact, by 1870, everyone in NGC, from Bismarck down to the most rabid nationalist, despaired of uniting Germany in any foreseeable future. To the contrary, Lasker despondently told his collegues in 1870 (after touring the southern states) that the anti-Prussian feelings in the South were at all time high and national feelings were nill. A Bavarian parliamentarian famously told the National Liberals that south Germans want Germans to Germanize Prussia, but never Prussianize Germany--and Bavaria. And these were Germans; Austrian Germans wanted to be part of Prussia even less than south Germans. Let me give you an advice that Bismarck famously gave to his impatient National Liberal allies, when he told them that, no matter how how much they may forward the hand of the clock, time will not pass any faster.

IMO this grossly understimates the impact on the views of Southern Germans that downfall of the Hapsburg Empire would have. Something that in OTL 1867-69 simply didn't exist. It shows Bavaria & co. that the only real option for the future is to be junior partners of the Prussians or vassals of the French, and far better for your leader to have your own language and culture, thank you. Besides, ITTL nobody is "killing" Austria, much less Prussia, besides her own internal weaknesses getting out of control. The German Austrian, after having tried (and failed) to save the Empire, come to the conclusion that it is far better to be beta dogs of an Empire, than masters of a bankrupt statelet, so they choose to Ask their German brethren for help.
 
IMO this grossly understimates the impact on the views of Southern Germans that downfall of the Hapsburg Empire would have. Something that in OTL 1867-69 simply didn't exist. It shows Bavaria & co. that the only real option for the future is to be junior partners of the Prussians or vassals of the French, and far better for your leader to have your own language and culture, thank you. Besides, ITTL nobody is "killing" Austria, much less Prussia, besides her own internal weaknesses getting out of control. The German Austrian, after having tried (and failed) to save the Empire, come to the conclusion that it is far better to be beta dogs of an Empire, than masters of a bankrupt statelet, so they choose to Ask their German brethren for help.

Let me add one more thing. No responsible persons in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the reich. In fact, if AH were to fall apart as in your TL, Bismarck, the kaiser, the National Liberals, and the conservatives would all do their best to prop up the rump-Austrian state as an independent entity. And that is if panGerman sentiments existed in either Germany or Austria at the time; it didn't, and simply handwaving intensely adverse reaction to greater German unification is to veer into ASB territory. After all, if we can make Austrians love Prussia, then we can make the 13 colonies love Britain too much to revolt and not have the US be born. Don't confuse what happened in 1930's with the realities of 1860's - 70's. Most likely, Austrians would prefer to rule themselves; the fear of being Prussianized was all too real at the time. For that matter, neither did the ruling elites in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the Reich; the addition of so many Catholic Germans would have completely destroyed the balance of power in the reich and led to the collapse of the kaiserreich as created by Bismarck. Also, you're being too sanguine about the south Germans. They liked being independent, and they wanted its neighbors to protect them from Prussia. The fall of Austria would do nothing to shake their belief in independence. If they really wanted to be safe, they could have formed a Southern Union, a plan in fact floated by Bavaria, but they didn't want to. They wanted to remain independent.
 

General Zod

Banned
Let me add one more thing. No responsible persons in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the reich. In fact, if AH were to fall apart as in your TL, Bismarck, the kaiser, the National Liberals, and the conservatives would all do their best to prop up the rump-Austrian state as an independent entity. And that is if panGerman sentiments existed in either Germany or Austria at the time; it didn't, and simply handwaving intensely adverse reaction to greater German unification is to veer into ASB territory. After all, if we can make Austrians love Prussia, then we can make the 13 colonies love Britain too much to revolt and not have the US be born. Don't confuse what happened in 1930's with the realities of 1860's - 70's. Most likely, Austrians would prefer to rule themselves; the fear of being Prussianized was all too real at the time. For that matter, neither did the ruling elites in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the Reich; the addition of so many Catholic Germans would have completely destroyed the balance of power in the reich and led to the collapse of the kaiserreich as created by Bismarck.

This reasoning would have made even the inclusion of Southern Germany in the federation impossible, yet it happened. The very most these points could justify is to delay the unification of Austria with the rest of Germany to the Franco-German war, when rump Austria shall be swept by PanGerman patriotism just the same as Bavaria & co. Bismarck is not an idiot, so he will welcome the Austrians abroad. As for Protestant to Catholic balance, Greater Germany shall be about 45% Catholic. Nothing a clever politician can't manipulate around. Since Bismarck was perfectly able to manipulate, bribe, and bully Catholic states and parties in OTL German Empire to do what he wanted, and saw no problem with welcoming Southern Germans aboard, he will not be any problem to do so with Cisleithania as well. He is far too intelligent not to acknowledge that it's the safest path for Prussia and Germany alike. If it's truly truly necessary I suppose I could revise the TL slightly to make it so that Cisleithania becomes a nominally independent puppet-ally of the NGF after the partition, and it enters the Empire along with the other SG states as the result of the wave of nationalistic patriotism when France attacks Germany, but that's all. The Franco-German war completely swept aside particolarism and the fears about Prussianization, and it will happen here again.
 
This reasoning would have made even the inclusion of Southern Germany in the federation impossible, yet it happened. The very most these points could justify is to delay the unification of Austria with the rest of Germany to the Franco-German war, when rump Austria shall be swept by PanGerman patriotism just the same as Bavaria & co. Bismarck is not an idiot, so he will welcome the Austrians abroad. As for Protestant to Catholic balance, Greater Germany shall be about 45% Catholic. Nothing a clever politician can't manipulate around. Since Bismarck was perfectly able to manipulate, bribe, and bully Catholic states and parties in OTL German Empire to do what he wanted, and saw no problem with welcoming Southern Germans aboard, he will not be any problem to do so with Cisleithania as well. He is far too intelligent not to acknowledge that it's the safest path for Prussia and Germany alike. If it's truly truly necessary I suppose I could revise the TL slightly to make it so that Cisleithania becomes a nominally independent puppet-ally of the NGF after the partition, and it enters the Empire along with the other SG states as the result of the wave of nationalistic patriotism when France attacks Germany, but that's all.

The Franco-German war was a unique situation with unique results: as Bismarck admitted, I was convinced that the gulf which in the course of history had opened between north and south in our countryn could not be bridged than trhough a common national war against the traditionally aggressive neighbor. Simply swallowing a collapsed Austria, against the will of Austrian Germans, would not have bridged the gulf between north and south. In fact, the fear of Prussianization would've been even greater. If we posit that Austria remains independent until F-G war, then the TL must change; Austrian and south Germans would not stand still. Most likely, Austria and south Germans would band together against Prussia, and there would be no Franco-German war, or at least a defensive Franco-German war. The war happened because everyone in France recognized that Prussia would swallow up the south soon or later, but if Austria is included with the south, then France would relax, knowing that the south had a real chance for independence. In any case, let me go back to greater Germany; it would mean the collapse of the Bismarckian constitution. As a matter of fact, Bismarck was never able to bully, manipulate, or bend German Catholics to hiw will. To the contary, it was the Center party that beat up Bismarck and finally caused his fall. Windhorst told his friends, long before Bismarck himself knew that he was kicked out, that he saw a dead man walking. The inclusion of Austrian Germans in the reich would have made the Center party the most powerful party and able to govern without any government parties. The result would have been either a stassreich or democratization of Germany.
 

JJohnson

Banned
What would "prussianization" entail? What would that mean to the Austrians? Is Prussian German civilization that different from Austrian German civilization?

James

Let me add one more thing. No responsible persons in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the reich. In fact, if AH were to fall apart as in your TL, Bismarck, the kaiser, the National Liberals, and the conservatives would all do their best to prop up the rump-Austrian state as an independent entity. And that is if panGerman sentiments existed in either Germany or Austria at the time; it didn't, and simply handwaving intensely adverse reaction to greater German unification is to veer into ASB territory. After all, if we can make Austrians love Prussia, then we can make the 13 colonies love Britain too much to revolt and not have the US be born. Don't confuse what happened in 1930's with the realities of 1860's - 70's. Most likely, Austrians would prefer to rule themselves; the fear of being Prussianized was all too real at the time. For that matter, neither did the ruling elites in Berlin wanted Austrian Germans in the Reich; the addition of so many Catholic Germans would have completely destroyed the balance of power in the reich and led to the collapse of the kaiserreich as created by Bismarck.
 
What would &quot:winkytongue:russianization" entail? What would that mean to the Austrians? Is Prussian German civilization that different from Austrian German civilization?

James

It was a vague, inchoate revulsion against all things Prussian. Did you know that the term militarism was first coined in south Germany as a propagandist tool against Prussia? In the simplest term, they feared for "barack-ization" of Germany, the much reviled cadaver discipline infecting free south Germans with Prussian conscription, king, and the church. A lot of the problem was confessional; the Catholics hated the Protestant North as much as the North hated the Catholic South. Basically, think of all the negative stereotypes you can think of about the Germans; the chances are, most of those stereotypes were started in south Germany against Prussia.When the southern deputies of zollparlement went to Berlin were sickened by what they called as memorials and monuments of "Caesarism" "saber" government of Prussia.
 

General Zod

Banned
In fact, the fear of Prussianization would've been even greater. If we posit that Austria remains independent until F-G war, then the TL must change; Austrian and south Germans would not stand still. Most likely, Austria and south Germans would band together against Prussia, and there would be no Franco-German war, or at least a defensive Franco-German war.

Sorry, this is what I find ASB in turn, Austria and the German South teaming up with France against Prussia & the North. This is simply not going to happen. When the F-G war happened, NO ONE of import ever suggested to do so, the wave of German patriotism was simply too overwhelming, neither any of import in Austria ever thought of an Austro-French alliance.

The war happened because everyone in France recognized that Prussia would swallow up the south soon or later, but if Austria is included with the south, then France would relax, knowing that the south had a real chance for independence.

Oh, there is plenty of occasions for France to make that fatal mistake. Nappy III was looking for an occasion to raise his waning prestige through a quick victorious war and to curb the rasing might of Prussian-led Germany. I prefer to use escalation over the Luxemburg crisis (good for raising PanGerman sentiment, as it was old HRE land and linguistically German) just not to be unoriginal by going for Spanish Succession. But Franco-German War is still defeinitely going to happen. Did not your self call for a war from some European Great Power to stop the rise of Greater Germany ? This is the chance for France to try (and fail).

In any case, let me go back to greater Germany; it would mean the collapse of the Bismarckian constitution. As a matter of fact, Bismarck was never able to bully, manipulate, or bend German Catholics to hiw will. To the contary, it was the Center party that beat up Bismarck and finally caused his fall.

Excuse me, when ? They were able to survive the KulturKampf, sure, but hardly able to do anything to reverse or hamper the policies of Bismarck about anything of import, they fought a successful defensive struggle for existence, and Bismarck failed to crush the Center Party, sure, but he called off the KK mostly because a more dangerous socialist movement was on the rise and he needed to switch policies from free trade to protectionism. The CP remained in the outskirts of German politics pretty much to the end of Bismarck's regime. But the contrast with William II was the main cause of his downfall.

Windhorst told his friends, long before Bismarck himself knew that he was kicked out, that he saw a dead man walking.

In 1890 ? Big deal. :rolleyes:

The inclusion of Austrian Germans in the reich would have made the Center party the most powerful party and able to govern without any government parties. The result would have been either a stassreich or democratization of Germany.

Err, the German Empire was not a parliamentary monarchy. The Center Party was hardly able to "govern" even if it had become the plurality party. The Kaiser got to decide who's going to be the Chancellor. The govenrment needs a majority in the Reichstag to pass legislation and change the budget, so he needs to compromise with the parties as to have the support of the majority on the legislation he wants, but the Reichstag was even less able to oust the Chancellor by itself than the Congress to oust the Secretary of State. Besides, it is hardly likely that the CP would have been able to become the plurality party soon after the unification. Both the Center Party and the Social Democracts took decades to grow in the position of the two most important parties of Germany, and even so theere was the National Liberals and the Conservatives that were just as important. Many Catholics arguably voted for either of the latter two during the Bismarckian Age. And even assuming the presence of Austria and Czechia spells a more rapid growth of the Center Party, this hardly spells the downfall of Bismarck or the essential framework of his constitution. The Kaiser decides who's Chancellor, and as long as William I is in chanrge, his position is unassailable. Not to mention the fact that ITTL the prestige of Bismarck among the German people is going to be even greater than OTL, he's the national hero that accomplished the complete national unification. He has exceedingly plenty of room to compromise with such party, it was eminently pragmatic. He can forsake or downplay the KulturKampf, or on the contrary try to form an anti-Catholic front between the National-Liberals and the Conservatives. He can give some privileges to the Catholic schools or concede some minor liberalizations of the Constitution.
 
Sorry, this is what I find ASB in turn, Austria and the German South teaming up with France against Prussia & the North. This is simply not going to happen. When the F-G war happened, NO ONE of import ever suggested to do so, the wave of German patriotism was simply too overwhelming, neither any of import in Austria ever thought of an Austro-French alliance.
Never said they would team up against Prussia militarily, only that it would make the southern Union a viable alternative to Prussian unification. Precisely for that reason France would be less trigger-happy. The patriotism only happened because the Germans and the world were convinced of French aggression; anything less than a defensive war would not bring the southerners together. In fact, Bismarck had to hurry the creation of empire because enthusiasm for unification was waning fast in the south. And that was a defensive war; the enthusiasm would not be there in an offensive war.
Oh, there is plenty of occasions for France to make that fatal mistake. Nappy III was looking for an occasion to raise his waning prestige through a quick victorious war and to curb the rasing might of Prussian-led Germany. I prefer to use escalation over the Luxemburg crisis (good for raising PanGerman sentiment, as it was old HRE land and linguistically German) just not to be unoriginal by going for Spanish Succession. But Franco-German War is still defeinitely going to happen. Did not your self call for a war from some European Great Power to stop the rise of Greater Germany ? This is the chance for France to try (and fail).
Napoleon wasn't stupid. Were Austria to become independent, the Opposition would be hard pressed to make the case that it was France that lost at Sadowa. His prestige would not have suffered much, if any, if he could show the deputies that Germany would be for real cut off at the Main. FYI, the Luxemburg crisis was a nonissue; the south looked dimly at Bismarck's saber rattling, Bismarck was displeased by the lack of reaction in the south and abandoned the ruse, and Napoleon in this TL shouldn't get baited, given the state of Austria. As for the war, yes, I think great powerS would try to stop Prussia: France, Russia, Italy, Britain.
Excuse me, when ? They were able to survive the KulturKampf, sure, but hardly able to do anything to reverse or hamper the policies of Bismarck about anything of import, they fought a successful defensive struggle for existence, and Bismarck failed to crush the Center Party, sure, but he called off the KK mostly because a more dangerous socialist movement was on the rise and he needed to switch policies from free trade to protectionism. The CP remained in the outskirts of German politics pretty much to the end of Bismarck's regime. But the contrast with William II was the main cause of his downfall.
The Center Party successfully obstructed Bismarck's policies on great many important issues, from economic to political to social issues. They were never threatened by Bismarck; they never fought for their existence because Bismarck's means of coercion were too limited. Federalism meant that coercion against the Party, as opposed to priests, was a non-issue. And he called off KK because he was losing! Badly! The Center party had successfully outflanked Bismarck and threatened his majority in the reichstag, all the while it was growing leaps and bounds. After his break with the national liberals, the Center consistently blackmailed Bismarck while giving him very little in return. Bismarck's greatest frustration and mistake domestically were the state funds, and he could never revoke that power because the Center killed every one of his moves to create centralized tax system. This was just one, very major policy initiative of Bismarck that the Center was able to kill. They also helped to defang Bismarck's greatest domestic achievement, the social insurance bills.
Err, the German Empire was not a parliamentary monarchy. The Center Party was hardly able to "govern" even if it had become the plurality party. The Kaiser got to decide who's going to be the Chancellor. The govenrment needs a majority in the Reichstag to pass legislation and change the budget, so he needs to compromise with the parties as to have the support of the majority on the legislation he wants, but the Reichstag was even less able to oust the Chancellor by itself than the Congress to oust the Secretary of State. Besides, it is hardly likely that the CP would have been able to become the plurality party soon after the unification. Both the Center Party and the Social Democracts took decades to grow in the position of the two most important parties of Germany, and even so theere was the National Liberals and the Conservatives that were just as important. Many Catholics arguably voted for either of the latter two during the Bismarckian Age. And even assuming the presence of Austria and Czechia spells a more rapid growth of the Center Party, this hardly spells the downfall of Bismarck or the essential framework of his constitution. The Kaiser decides who's Chancellor, and as long as William I is in chanrge, his position is unassailable. Not to mention the fact that ITTL the prestige of Bismarck among the German people is going to be even greater than OTL, he's the national hero that accomplished the complete national unification. He has exceedingly plenty of room to compromise with such party, it was eminently pragmatic. He can forsake or downplay the KulturKampf, or on the contrary try to form an anti-Catholic front between the National-Liberals and the Conservatives. He can give some privileges to the Catholic schools or concede some minor liberalizations of the Constitution.
The problem here is that the reichstag held the power of purse. If the Center party under Windhorst had parliamentary majority, he would have used it to liberalize the empire, or try. Then we would be back to the constitutional crisis of 50's. Knowing the people, it would've ended in staatsreich, but Germany as a rechstaat would be finished. The Center would grow less progressive after Bismarck left, but during the 60's-80's, it was on the side of freedom. The Center became the second largest party in Germany around 76 or so. With Austria, the pace would quicken and would hold the dominant position in Germany by 79. And most Catholics south of the Main voted for the Center; that's why Bismarck was never able to break their power, the complete loyalty of the Catholics in the South. The prestige of Bismarck was high--in the north. It wasn't all that high in Bavaria, and the pattern would repeat itself in Austria. Forsaking KK was not an option for Bismarck, in that he needed it to distract the National Liberals. Without KK, Bismarck would have had to split with the National Liberals much earlier, and with that, the shape of the reich as a progressive state. Most of all liberal and progressive reforms in Germany happened in tandem with the national liberals. Neither the catholics nor the conservatives were interested in liberal reforms.
 

General Zod

Banned
her, I've slightly rewritten the TL to have the unification occur more gradually:

1866: During its war with Prussia and Italy, the Hapsburg Empire suffers two crushing land defeats at Koniggratz and Custoza, which destroy most of its Army, and loses a naval battle at Lissa. Italy lands troops in Dalmatia. Prussia and Italy offer a lenient peace which concedes the annexation of Hannover, leadership of the German Confederation and Austrian Silesia to Prussia and Veneto, Trento, and Trieste to Italy in the Treaties of Prague and Vienna. The German states north of the Main river are united in the Northern Germany Confederation as a federal state under the leadership of Prussia.

However, in the Empire, the defeat stirs up lingering tensions among the Hungarians, the Slavs and the German ruling class and, instead of demanding political reform, they rise up in revolution much in the same fashion as they did in 1848. The surviving Armies of the Empire, overstretched managing both the Prussians and Italians in the west, and now divided, soon collapse with the formation of various Hungarians and Slavic militias across the country. The newly restored Hungarian Diet proclaims independence and hastily organizes an Hungarian Army which soon clashes the remnant of the Austrian army and the Slavic militias in the areas of the Empire which Hungary claims. Unable to successfully put down the regional revolts and fight Hungary at the same time Austria stubbornly attempts to do both. As the Austrian treasury empties her military is unable to defeat an invisible enemy in the outlying parts of the empire and is also unable to take the risk of openly driving on Buda and fighting the increasing organized Hungarian forces. As the weeks and months drag on and the expenses increase Austria faces a stalemate in her position.

1867:After several months of chaos without aid, Austria concedes and recognizes the independence of Hungary: Franz Josef, under increasing political pressure, abdicates in favor of his 9-year old son, Rudolf. Vienna is forced to acknowledge the end of the Hapsburg preeminence amid the German states and hegemony over the subject nationalities of the Empire or wither away bankrupt and powerless in obscurity. The Austrian government appeals to the NGF for aid. Bismarck contacts Italy, Hungary, and Russia, and offers a partition scheme of the Hapsburg Empire (German Austria and Bohemia-Moravia as a satellite state of the NGF, Istria and Dalmatia to Italy, an independent Kingdom of Hungary, Austrian Poland and Galicia to Russia, alongside with support for Russian expansion in the Black Sea and the Balkans). All parties forward general agreement. In order to preserve the interests of the German states, which are now forced to look upon Prussia as their leader, the Prussian Army (which now integrates the Armies of the NGF minor states) mobilizes once again and, with the help of Bavaria, enters Austria proper, Bohemia-Moravia, and Slovenia, as an occupation force, putting the Slavs down and establishing firm control over the area. Italy and Russia likewise send troops in Austrian Poland, Galicia, Istria, and Dalmatia to “protect their interests”. The Hungarian Army quells the Slavic resistance in their half of the ex-Empire with the help of the Prussians, the Italians, and the Bavarians.

NGF Chancellor Bismarck summons a Congress of the involved parties to settle the deal: diplomats from Russia, Italy, the NGF, Austria, Bavaria, and Hungary meet in Munich and sign a treaty which partitions the Hapsburg Empire. Russia gains Galicia and Austrian Poland, Italy annexes Trento, Trieste, Istria, and Dalmatia. The NGF is granted customs exemption and unrestricted access to the Trieste port. Austria, Slovenia, Bohemia, and Moravia are set up as the Kingdom of Austria-Bohemia, with Rudolf of Hapsburg on the throne, which signs a defensive military alliance and a customs and monetary union with the Prussian-led NGF. The independence of the Kingdom of Hungary is recognized, with the possession of Transylvania, Slovakia, and Croatia, and a throne in personal union with the Kingdom of Austria-Bohemia. Bismarck gives Russia a secret guarantee of German support to the repeal of the post-Crimean War limitations which Russia suffers in the Black Sea. It also offers support to Russian expansion in the Balkans as long as Russia does not interfere with the interests of Italy and Hungary in that area.

In the face of the Hapsburg Empire’s collapse, the southern German states are forced to reconsider their relationship with the rest of Germany: there is a significant German national sentiment which urges to complete the unification with the NGF, but there is also widespread reluctance to accept the leadership of Prussia and lose independence. In the end, Bavaria and the other southern states compromise and remain independent but sign a defensive military alliance and customs and monetary union with the NGF just as Austria-Bohemia has done.

Satisfied with the settlement, both Italy and Hungary sign a permanent defensive alliance with the NGF. Russia is satisfied with its gains in Galicia and Poland and the demise of her Hapsburg rival in the Balkans and expresses her full support to the deal. It also signs a treaty of non-aggression with the Triple Alliance powers. France is appalled but chooses not to act since she dares not challenge the NGF-Italian-Hungarian-Russian combination and the French Army is still recovering from the defeat it suffered from the Union in its intervention in Mexico. Bismarck is however able to mollify Napoleon III with secret promises of territorial gains for France in Luxembourg and Belgium. Britain is more than a little startled with the radical shift in the balance of power but soon makes itself comfortable with the deal as the best solution to the Hapsburg collapse.

1868: France offers to buy Luxembourg from William III of the Netherlands. Being in financial trouble, William accepts. However, nationalistic outrage sweeps the German public over the proposed deal and Bismarck is forced to renege on the pledge that he had made to Napoleon, and and forcefully opposes the cession. Napoleon demands that Prussia withdraw its soldiers from Luxemburg City which were stationed there in accordance with the Congress of Vienna treaties, threatening war in the event that Prussia did not comply. When Bismarck sends a noncommittal answer, France declares war on the NGF. An overwhelming wave of nationalistic pride seizes the German public and patriotic union is declared against French aggression. All previous hesitations about national unification are soon largely forgotten in the feelings of national brotherhood forged by the common war against the hereditary enemy. All the German states, including A-B, join the war against France. Talks are started about the unification of the NGF, southern German state, and Austria-Bohemia in a larger federal state, and to recreate the German Empire. Italy, hoping to seize Rome and regain Nice and Savoy if France is defeated, declares war on France. Russia and Britain affirm their neutrality in the conflict. Hungary affirms her solidarity with Germany and Italy, but only sends a small contingent.
 
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General Zod

Banned
Never said they would team up against Prussia militarily, only that it would make the southern Union a viable alternative to Prussian unification. Precisely for that reason France would be less trigger-happy.

Too bad that ITTL the southern Union is not going to happen. I've revised the TL so that the unification occurs more gradually, but Bismarck exacts a price to save the butt of Vienna, the satellization of Austria-Bohemia, military alliance and customs-monetary union with the NGF. They are still independent, but bound to the NGF. The other southern states wring their hands, but the NGF-Austrian bond limits their choices, so in the end they compromise and sign the same military-economic pacts with the NGF.

So France still sees the unification of the HRE as a writing on the wall.

The patriotism only happened because the Germans and the world were convinced of French aggression; anything less than a defensive war would not bring the southerners together. In fact, Bismarck had to hurry the creation of empire because enthusiasm for unification was waning fast in the south. And that was a defensive war; the enthusiasm would not be there in an offensive war.

Since ITTL it is still France that declares war over German land, the war is defensive in the eyes of all Germans. everything proceeds according to plan (not that Bismarck had such a superhuman master plan, he was just very good to adapt to events and opportunities).


Napoleon wasn't stupid. Were Austria to become independent, the Opposition would be hard pressed to make the case that it was France that lost at Sadowa. His prestige would not have suffered much, if any, if he could show the deputies that Germany would be for real cut off at the Main.

Since the southern union hasn't shown up, nothing of the above is happening. The doors of war are slowly opening...

FYI, the Luxemburg crisis was a nonissue; the south looked dimly at Bismarck's saber rattling, Bismarck was displeased by the lack of reaction in the south and abandoned the ruse, and Napoleon in this TL shouldn't get baited, given the state of Austria.

As the OTL rather trivial casus belli for the war of 1870 and for the Crimean War shows, things can quickly escalate to war in this jingoistic age. ITTL Nappy gets baited about Luxemburg instead of the Spanish Succession (but it could have happened the usual way, I'm just trying to be original, honestly).

As for the war, yes, I think great powerS would try to stop Prussia: France, Russia, Italy, Britain.

Italy which has just fought a completely victorious war alongisde Prussia and has been showered with all her Hapsburg claims ought to betray her main ally (and protector against increasingly hostile France, owning to the Roman Question) just for the sake of robotic knee-jerk urge to maintain the balance of power ? Sorry sir, real-world politics isn't Risiko. This is where I stop taking the issue seriously. Please let your anti-hegemonic coalition crusade pet peeve drop, it's getting increasingly silly. At this moment, France is the only great power that has a real overwhelming issue about stopping the rise of Germany by whatever means, and they are taking action accordingly.

Russia is at present satisfied with the settlement of Central Europe and is busy planning the eventual butchering of the Ottoman Empire and looking for a casus belli there.

British government has not any casus belli whatsoever to sell the British public and Parliament about wasting British blood and money to help France conquer Luxemburg or Belgium, quite the contrary, nor to stop the various German states from doing what they damn please in their own house.
 

JJohnson

Banned
Quick question on this timeline, with 1868 unifying the land - would it have occurred this early, or would it be best to let unification sentiment stew a while, and let France cause the war in 1871 like ITL? Any advantage to going 1868 rather than 1871?

James
 

General Zod

Banned
Quick question on this timeline, with 1868 unifying the land - would it have occurred this early, or would it be best to let unification sentiment stew a while, and let France cause the war in 1871 like ITL? Any advantage to going 1868 rather than 1871?

James

No, no, not really, there is not any intrinsec advantage to move the war to 1868. It was an OOC reason, this poster trying to pick an original casus belli for the First Franco-German-Italian War instead of the Spanish Succession Crisis. Either in 1868 or in 1870, things change little, France pickes an excuse to attack, trying to stave off the German unification, French aggression causes a wave of nationalistic outrage which sweeps away hesitations at unification, Italy joins her new ally, France is f£$%&ed within a few months, even if the siege of Paris (maybe also a siege of Marseilles by Italians), francs-tireurs, and French bullheadedness about admitting defeat strench things off till next year.

Yes, the Franco-Prussian war could have occurred 2-3 years early, in 1867 there was the Luxemburg Crisis (Bismarck had made vague secret promises to let France reap compensations in Belgium or Luxemburg, they tried to make good and buy Luxemburg, there was nationalist outrage in Germany, Bismarck was obliged to veto the buy, IOTL the crisis was settled diplomatically but it could have easily got out of hand as the Spanish Succession did).
 
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