Which of these PoDs are best for 2nd Korean War?
Given these three PoDs, which one is most likely to butterfly into a US military intervention, or full scale war, against North Korea in the first decade of the 21st Century?
PoD 1: The 22nd Amendment does not pass; this has absolutely no effect until the 2000 Election rolls around, when Clinton gets elected for a third term -- then the 9/11 Attacks (still) happen...
PoD 2: McCain wins the South Carolina primary, and goes on to win the Presidency in 2000. The attacks still happen, but this time OBL is killed in Tora Bora, with KSM, Zawihiri, and Mullah Omar getting captured or killed not long after...
PoD 3: In the weeks preceding the planned attacks, the plot disintegrates as key figures are caught (by sheer luck), and others are either found in turn, flee, or lay low (for at least several years). The Bush Administration, aside from some drone attacks on suspected AQ Base locations, do little in response...