Best initial POD for the largest possible Russia wank?

Problem is that Frederick II (of Prussia) was most likely or homosexual or impotent (or both), so yes to a marriage, but no to any descendants and no to a personal union.



Break of Greece (including western Anatolia and Constantinople) and form a Byzantine Empire, ruled in Personal Union by the Tsar who becomes Emperor of the Rhomans. In the east, form Greater Armenia and Greater, Christian Syria (also ruled by the Tsar).



In Victoria II I would strongly advocate a Russian conquest of China:D

But, even if China was often ruled by foreign dynasties, this is really ASB, as long as the Russian Tsar stays a Russian. To rule China effectivly (and not only some ports like the Europeans did - this underlines their impuissance against whole China), you have to move your capital to Beijing, adopt Chinese culture and basically become a Chinese. And even then they would treat you as a forgeigner for generations.



The Polish were very nationalist in these times. The only solution to the problem I see is liberate them and rule them in Personal Union. Then wage wars against Germany and Austria to enlarge Poland.

Having the Tsar of Russia rule China directly may be insanity, but is the idea of the Russians overrunning China then placing a third son as the Emperor of a China sans Manchuria, Mongolia and Uighurstan as a Russia-aligned state insane in the 'practically unfeasible' department? Difficult to pull off sure, but it wouldn't be the first time China's been ruled by a foreigner.
 
Yes and no.
After January uprising, which was at that time regarded as complete insanity by majority of polish population, they essentially gave up on armed struggle for independence.
When Russian army was retreating in 1914, people in Congress Poland were crying that their army is being forced to retreat.
Any supposed anti-Russian ultra nationalism of general population was made up after 1918 by ruling circles of Second Republic.
It took fiasco of WWI and two revolutions (neither were revolutions, one was abdication, other was coup) and Red Terror to make Poles disgusted with Russia.

There was never any need for Russia to grant Congress Poland independence, or even increase its autonomy.
Considering that after 1860s when autonomy was abolished, there were no more armed uprisings, Russian policy in Poland worked out okay.

Russian reprisals after the January Uprising successfully terrorized the population into not rebelling, but the majority of the population of Russian Poland strongly resented Russia. Prior to WWI the most popular political orientation in Russian Poland were the National Democrats, whose short-term objective was autonomy and whose long-term objective was always full independence. They did support Russia over Germany in WWI, but this was because they considered Germany the greater threat and not because of any actual sympathy for Russia. They were much more concerned about society being too anti-Russian for the tactical co-operation with it to succeed than acceptance of the status quo. The second most popular orientation was socialist. Some of the socialist factions did support the idea of an armed uprising, some did not, but all of them agreed that the Russian Empire in its present form had to go. The long-term result of Russia's policies was only that the majority of Poles waited until the right moment (1919-1920) to resist Russia openly.

- Suppress democracy and nationalist independence movements with force. There would be no revolutions in 1905 and 1917 to weaken the country if Tsar ordered troops to arrest and execute revolutionary ringleaders. Mobs are not dangerous without leaders to steer them.

But what if some ringleaders hide in western Europe, and then get sent in sealed trains by another power at precisely the time when they would cause maximum instability?
 
Russian reprisals after the January Uprising successfully terrorized the population into not rebelling, but the majority of the population of Russian Poland strongly resented Russia.
Rebels did their fair part of terror, stealing from and murdering people who were insufficiently supportive of uprising.
And tsar retaliated by ending serfdom, granting land to peasants, exiling some rebels to siberia, and executing... 396 people.
Szlachta hated it, but peasants were not particularly terrorized.
Do not mistake opinion of part of elites for that of majority of population.

but the majority of the population of Russian Poland strongly resented Russia.
So? Even if that was true, which it was not, they can resent all they want, as long as they don't act on it. A lot of people in former CSA "resent" removal of the flag, but they aren't starting 2nd civil war over it.
The long-term result of Russia's policies was only that the majority of Poles waited until the right moment (1919-1920) to resist Russia openly.
Then you just don't give them opportunity to rebel.
1864-1905, those were forty years of peaceful Congress Poland.
And there is no such thing as "majority of x waited until the right moment to rebel". Nope. People just want to get by, and stay out of trouble if war or something happens. Sure, they might sympathize, but most of time they are annoyed that rebels disrupted their life, but unless regime was really unbearable, they did not participate in struggle.


One might consider removing useless part of tsarist repression, things that annoy common population but do nothing to stop actual rebels.

But what if some ringleaders hide in western Europe, and then get sent in sealed trains by another power at precisely the time when they would cause maximum instability?
How is this not preferable to them actually stirring trouble at home, all the time? Decimate the subversive groups, those that escape abroad are harmless now, unless you screw things up so much as they were in 1917.

Germans gave Lenin a lot of money to destabilize Russia.
And he won only because weak and instable Provisional government was in power. If Lenin returned while autocracy was firm in place, he would be hanged, and that would be it.
If Ochkrana purged Kadet, Trudovik, Social Revolutionary, Bolshevik and Menshevik leaderships, they would simply not be in position to launch revolution.
Keep economy strong, do not get involved in risky wars with little to gain, and country will be stable.
 
Rebels did their fair part of terror, stealing from and murdering people who were insufficiently supportive of uprising.
And tsar retaliated by ending serfdom, granting land to peasants, exiling some rebels to siberia, and executing... 396 people.
Szlachta hated it, but peasants were not particularly terrorized.
Do not mistake opinion of part of elites for that of majority of population.


So? Even if that was true, which it was not, they can resent all they want, as long as they don't act on it. A lot of people in former CSA "resent" removal of the flag, but they aren't starting 2nd civil war over it.

Then you just don't give them opportunity to rebel.
1864-1905, those were forty years of peaceful Congress Poland.
And there is no such thing as "majority of x waited until the right moment to rebel". Nope. People just want to get by, and stay out of trouble if war or something happens. Sure, they might sympathize, but most of time they are annoyed that rebels disrupted their life, but unless regime was really unbearable, they did not participate in struggle.

One might consider removing useless part of tsarist repression, things that annoy common population but do nothing to stop actual rebels.

The mass killings of non-combattants due to real or imagined sympathies with rebels (a LOT more than 396 persons), the extensive confiscations of property, intensified russification and similar matters are all irrelevant details I guess. You are correct that the average peasant of the 1860s didn't care about the uprising as long as he was left alone, but the 1910s were not the 1860s. Times had changed, and the grandchildren of the peasants who just didn't want no trouble had come to take an interest in politics and developed ambitions. WWI caused the population of the future Poland to drop by 10%, agricultural production to decrease by half and industrial production to drop by 90%. Despite this a million people were willing to go fight yet another war, and the rest were prepared to support the war effort which defeated the Red Army's offensive. Definitely not the behavior of a people who just want to stay out of trouble. Removing "useless" laws in order to placate the population sounds nice in theory, but how do you achieve this in practice? One can either make any commoner with any sort of ambition your enemy (and this is a time of increasing social mobility), or one can let non-Russians occupy important economical and political positions and liberalize...

How is this not preferable to them actually stirring trouble at home, all the time? Decimate the subversive groups, those that escape abroad are harmless now, unless you screw things up so much as they were in 1917.

Germans gave Lenin a lot of money to destabilize Russia.
And he won only because weak and instable Provisional government was in power. If Lenin returned while autocracy was firm in place, he would be hanged, and that would be it.
If Ochkrana purged Kadet, Trudovik, Social Revolutionary, Bolshevik and Menshevik leaderships, they would simply not be in position to launch revolution.
Keep economy strong, do not get involved in risky wars with little to gain, and country will be stable.

...which may be a bit difficult to reconcile with the creation of a police state worthy of Stalin's USSR.
 
Every rebellion that ends in failure result in suppression, sometimes innocent get caught in that, but it was not an official policy. Government had no interest in destroying people who caused no trouble.
Times had changed, and the grandchildren of the peasants who just didn't want no trouble had come to take an interest in politics and developed ambitions.
1900s was era of economic progress, people with ambition and talent had way to go up in social ladder. After 1905, they could also run for Duma, so Russia wasn't exactly a bleak North Korean hellhole of a land where hope goes to die.
WWI caused the population of the future Poland to drop by 10%, agricultural production to decrease by half and industrial production to drop by 90%. Despite this a million people were willing to go fight yet another war, and the rest were prepared to support the war effort which defeated the Red Army's offensive.
Bolshevik Russia. Its the part which makes difference. It took failure of World War I and October Revolution to finally dissolution Poles with Russia.
Removing "useless" laws in order to placate the population sounds nice in theory, but how do you achieve this in practice? One can either make any commoner with any sort of ambition your enemy (and this is a time of increasing social mobility), or one can let non-Russians occupy important economical and political positions and liberalize...
Wrong. Why would exactly part I underlined be a problem? Russian Empire had plenty loyal yet non-Russian officers, civil servants, businessmen, scientists. I am fairly sure Russia had at least one Polish prime minister. The enemy of Russia was not a non-Russian, but a revolutionary, a traitor, a criminal, etc. Regardless of nationality.
People with ambition who were loyal were an asset, not a liability.

...which may be a bit difficult to reconcile with the creation of a police state worthy of Stalin's USSR.
You don't need police state to uphold laws, unless you do something stupid like drug war. Even in US you get in trouble for trying to, or openly saying you will, kill president or overthrow government, so Russia doesn't need to be much harsher (instead banning racism, you'll ban anti-tsarism). In political crimes area, go only after big fish, repress those who publicly oppose you, or do violent crimes.
Forget about stalinist stuff like surveillance of everyone.
If some schmuck is reading Das Capital, that is not a threat to the state, unless he is also high ranking member of military or civil service. Then you need to go down hard on him.
 
Every rebellion that ends in failure result in suppression, sometimes innocent get caught in that, but it was not an official policy. Government had no interest in destroying people who caused no trouble.

The boundary between official policy and actions which, while not officially ordained, are tolerated anyway is a very thin one.

1900s was era of economic progress, people with ambition and talent had way to go up in social ladder. After 1905, they could also run for Duma, so Russia wasn't exactly a bleak North Korean hellhole of a land where hope goes to die.

(...)

Wrong. Why would exactly part I underlined be a problem? Russian Empire had plenty loyal yet non-Russian officers, civil servants, businessmen, scientists. I am fairly sure Russia had at least one Polish prime minister. The enemy of Russia was not a non-Russian, but a revolutionary, a traitor, a criminal, etc. Regardless of nationality.
People with ambition who were loyal were an asset, not a liability.

Sure, individual advancement was entirely possible, but there were still all sorts of "glass ceilings" and common, let's say "administrative" difficulties which were often very hard/impossible to avoid. A major part of the administration consisted of imported Russians, for example, and those Russians somehow tended to get the best positions. The average farmer/industrial worker (who was increasingly literate and aware of the greater rights his counterparts in western Europe enjoyed) was also affected by the absurd limits imposed on any self-organization, self-government and the preferential treatment of Russian food and industrial products. And of course censorship, the suppression of the Catholic church, efforts to eradicate the public use of the Polish language, the complete impunity enjoyed by military personnel, resettling disliked nationalities (russified Jews) and very disliked nationalities (Russians) from the east in the already densely-populated region... all these things were more than just annoying details. The Duma was established very late, soon had the voting system changed quite unfavourably and had rather limited power anyway - definitely a step in the right direction, but halfhearted and not very big.

Bolshevik Russia. Its the part which makes difference. It took failure of World War I and October Revolution to finally dissolution Poles with Russia.

The National Democrats worried that a major uprising might occur in 1905 and 1914. I think they were quite well informed about social attitudes at the time. I'm sure the October Revolution intensified that dislike, but it only built upon something that was already very significant in the first place. But I'm sure that, by revealing Russia's weakness, the revolutions did cause millions of people to radically revise their opinions about the possibility of fighting Russia off.

You don't need police state to uphold laws, unless you do something stupid like drug war. Even in US you get in trouble for trying to, or openly saying you will, kill president or overthrow government, so Russia doesn't need to be much harsher (instead banning racism, you'll ban anti-tsarism). In political crimes area, go only after big fish, repress those who publicly oppose you, or do violent crimes.
Forget about stalinist stuff like surveillance of everyone.
If some schmuck is reading Das Capital, that is not a threat to the state, unless he is also high ranking member of military or civil service. Then you need to go down hard on him.

If we "go down hard" on anyone associated with "subversives", which given the very nature of minorities would be a very large group, don't we run the risk of turning the Duma and/or any other state organs conservative (in the sense of not seeing the need for change, let alone introducing it) echo chambers?
 
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How abvout an earlier POD?

The last Ice Age ends sooner and the climate is slightly warmer. Siberia becomes more arable, as is Northern European Russia. VERY early POD.:rolleyes: But certainly solves Russia's problems with food production, contact with the outside world (Archangel is now open year round), and water issues in Siberia.

OTOH, I doubt this will work. With the Romans and Chinese casting greedy eyes upon a much richer northern Asia/NE Europe, there will probably never be a Russia.:eek:
 
The boundary between official policy and actions which, while not officially ordained, are tolerated anyway is a very thin one.
Then change policy, so government no longer tolerates abuse of innocent citizens. Some soldiers shot ten year old for looking at em funny? Hang them. Appoint loyal-but-reform-minded people to some posts, like judges or prosecutors, so reform won't be dead law.

The average farmer/industrial worker (who was increasingly literate and aware of the greater rights his counterparts in western Europe enjoyed) was also affected by the absurd limits imposed on any self-organization, self-government and the preferential treatment of Russian food and industrial products.
Then get rid of those absurd limits, like universities Jewish quotas or Pale of Settlement. Russia was always very bureaucratic, lets cut this useless red tape. This reform requires very little effort to implement.

And of course censorship, the suppression of the Catholic church, efforts to eradicate the public use of the Polish language, the complete impunity enjoyed by military personnel, resettling disliked nationalities (russified Jews) and very disliked nationalities (Russians) from the east in the already densely-populated region... all these things were more than just annoying details.
Easy. Don't suppress catholic church, co-opt it for your needs, by controlling what priests and bishops are appointed (many governments did that, French president can appoint some bishops to this day). Ease censorship, so only courts (with trial-by-jury) can suppress free speech. Police would only bother to prosecute speech and press that would not be jury-nullified, like inciting to murder, revolution, treason, or other serious crime. Make military personnel subject to laws. Don't resettle people, unless as punishment for participation in uprising, or serious crimes.

If we "go down hard" on anyone associated with "subversives"....
Then don't. Keep due process. Don't "go down hard" on anyone who looked funny at you, but on members of violent conspiracies, like bomb throwing terrorists, marxists, or political parties that openly demand republic.
 
Peter the Great is a bit different.

He modernizes, and introduces European reforms and trade and industry (as OTL), but doesn't equate Europeanness with Westernness. So, no beard cutting, he champions the Orthodox Church and gets it to support his view of a stronger Holy Mother Russia.

With more modernity and a rising middle class ('Russian' traders out of St. Petersburg and the Black Sea ports), the country grows wealthier, and the growing middle class slowly pushes back the power of the nobility.

New agricultural techniques and crops, peasants become richer, there's more food for townsfolk, etc.

When the Industrial Revolution comes, Russia starts building its own iron foundries and steel mills. They start a TransSiberian RR in the 1860s, and complete it about 10 years later.

This gives them a huge logistics improvement on the Asian front, and are able to browbeat China and puppetize Japan.

In the early 20th century, Russia and France go to war with Germany and Austria-Hungary (in a war similar to OTL's WWI, but without Britain). Due to Russia's increased strength, she crushes the Central Powers, and takes Poland, East Prussia, the Hungarian half of A-H, and much of the Balkans.

By now, the Empire is the Holy Motherland, not just Holy Russia, and as long as you are loyal to the Tsar and are content with Orthodox hegemony you can count as a loyal Imperial Subject, no matter what your language.

*WWII sees Russia dominate the entire continent of Eurasia, absorbing or puppetizing everyone from Vietnam to India to Spain, and making strong inroads into Africa, too.

The late 20th Century sees a stand-off between the Empire, and the Union (of Free States), but with the invention of atomic weaponry, no major war happens.

Over the course of the 21st Century, the Empire peels off American countries one by one, so by the end of the century, the Union consists of basically OTL's Lower 48 US states. Since the Empire is mining the asteroid belt and getting space based solar power, the Union falls further and further into insignificance. Finally in 2157, the poor, bypassed Union finally faces reality and becomes part of the Solar System spanning Empire.
 
Then change policy, so government no longer tolerates abuse of innocent citizens. Some soldiers shot ten year old for looking at em funny? Hang them. Appoint loyal-but-reform-minded people to some posts, like judges or prosecutors, so reform won't be dead law.


Then get rid of those absurd limits, like universities Jewish quotas or Pale of Settlement. Russia was always very bureaucratic, lets cut this useless red tape. This reform requires very little effort to implement.


Easy. Don't suppress catholic church, co-opt it for your needs, by controlling what priests and bishops are appointed (many governments did that, French president can appoint some bishops to this day). Ease censorship, so only courts (with trial-by-jury) can suppress free speech. Police would only bother to prosecute speech and press that would not be jury-nullified, like inciting to murder, revolution, treason, or other serious crime. Make military personnel subject to laws. Don't resettle people, unless as punishment for participation in uprising, or serious crimes.


Then don't. Keep due process. Don't "go down hard" on anyone who looked funny at you, but on members of violent conspiracies, like bomb throwing terrorists, marxists, or political parties that openly demand republic.

Administratively those measures would indeed be easy to impose. But with a nationalistic Russia, where any political parties which openly demand certain changes are purged, even formulating such proposals may be problematic.
 
This is my plan


13-15th Century
-Annex the Grand Duchy of Lithuania or Lithuania pull a russia
-Prevent Poland from grabbing Galicia-Volhynia and annex it along with subcarpathian rus
-Support Poland in its border claims to Silesia and Pomerania

16th Century onwards
-Expand to Romania and Crimea
-Expand to Siberia
-Annex the Manchus
-Puppetize China

This is a good start. I like the latter part of the first one. Vytautas was -extremely- popular among the Ruthenians and Belorussians, no reason he (or his heirs, as long as they don't screw it up) couldn't use his reputation as 'Defender of Orthodoxy' to form a sort of Lithuanian-led Russian union down the line.

Here's how it goes:

-Grand Duchy of Lithuania under Vytautas somehow is freed of rule by Poland.
-Vytautas and his heirs decisively defeat Muscovy, start pushing north.
-Defeat the Golden Horde again (and again), push east.
-Vytautas was known to collaborate with the Teutonic Order---with their help, crush Poland and end Polish ambitions/designs on Lithuania, annex Ruthenia proper.
-Crush the Teutonic Order as thanks, take Terra Mariana.
-Declare a proper kingdom----'Ruthenia', or something similar, and move capital to Kiev.
-The unique Lithuanian (recently converted---late 13th century) Christianity blends with existing Russian Orthodoxy to create a unitarian sort of Church that is independent of both Constantinople -and- Rome.
-The Russian Metropolitan either never moves to Moscow or moves back to Kiev.
-Kiev, center of the (Lithuanian-led, although the Dukes of Lithuania have 'Russified' by this point) 'Russian' state, becomes the 'Third Rome', not Moscow.
-Eventually the northern principalities (of which Muscovy is now merely the biggest minor among minors) and finally Novgorod (stronger due to not getting smacked around by Muscovy) are absorbed/annexed.

This Kiev-centered Russian nation would be much more southern- than northern-focused; although it would control the Baltic, it would probably be more indirect/federal rule in nature (Livonian Confederation would likely still form and have some autonomy under Lithuania/Ruthenia/whatever). The Crimea would be a hot-bed of trade and economic activity once the hordes are ousted. It would be a true revival of the Kievan Rus' under Rurik.

[edit]If I ever get sick of writing about the Teutonic Knights, this would probably be my next TL.
 
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