Best chance of Hitler being beaten early without USSR or USA

Which of these is the least implausable?

  • 1938 War over Czechoslovakia

    Votes: 36 65.5%
  • 1939- allied offensive just after invasion of Poland

    Votes: 8 14.5%
  • Different weather or luck in the summer of 1940

    Votes: 7 12.7%
  • Any suggestons

    Votes: 4 7.3%

  • Total voters
    55
  • Poll closed .
I am inclined to think the best chance is to have a different military doctrine or more anger and guilt in September 1939- a diversionary attack conquers the Ruhr and ...
 
Instead of appeasing Hitler, Britain and France could've called Hitler's bullshit and refused giving Hitler Sudetenland. However, if Hitler decided to be smart and not to take military action on Czechoslovakia, then this will only delay World War II instead of decisively defeating him because Hitler then wouldn't invade Poland knowing that Britain and France will take action if he tried anything.
 
I say Sudetenland war. An offensive during the invasion of Poland had the potential to provoke total german collapse, but we didn't have the will and organisation to launch it so it's really not plausible, and anything after that was asking for trouble. In 1938, however, while it may be a struggle, the Germans will lose, evntually.

To attack Czechoslovakia, they have to force fortified mountain passed. They're facing an army better than the Polish one across much more defensible frontiers. The Czechs will very likley be beaten (I doubt Britain and France will be any prompter in attacking Germany than they were for Poland, no matter how weak its western defences) but they'll give the Germans one hell of a bloody nose. Having taken much heavier losses, and having started without the benefit of another year re-arming and the plunder of Czechia, the Germans will be too battered and exhausted for any massive blitzkrieg against France and the low countries. Therefore the Italians stay quiet. Anglo-French control of the seas and the world outside Europe will inevitably start to tell, and by 1941 at the latest Germany will have lost the war of attrition.

There are a lot of interesting things to consider diplomatically in this scenario. Hungary will be decisively warned off by Yugoslavia and Romania and won't come in aginst the Slovaks until after Czechia has been swallowed by Germany if at all, so there's no military effect there.

I wonder if Italy wouldn't eventually smell which way the wind was blowing and dogpile on Germany with the intent of re-establishing a puppet fascist Austria, inceasing its Balkan influence, and looking good to the Entente? Certainly the whole mess provides useful cover for invading Albania right on time.

The Soviets are the biggie, of course. If France assists Czechoslovakia, so must the USSR: to honour its treaties, to arrest the rise of fascism, for the sake of its prestige and credibility. They'll take advantage of the situation any way they can (the Entente will probably be too distracted to respond to its co-belligerant stationing troops in Estonia and Latvia), but what they can do for the Czechs is questionable, unless of course everybody screws up and Poland ends up co-belligerant with Germany, which is fairly unlikely but not altogether out of the question: the Poles don't trust the Germans, but if they act like dicks towards CZS and the Soviets are feeling cocky...

In which case the Poles will probably receive a firm manhandling in the kresy. The Red Army is no condition to take on the Germans properly, but Germany is no position to fight everybody at once. When they fold and the Soviets and Entente start frantically scrabbling for the prizes, things get interesting.
 

nbcman

Donor
Stopping Hitler when he occupied the Rhineland or Austria could result in the Nazis being pushed out with a minimal war.
 
War in 1938. The Allies can defeat, or at least contain, the Germans with a POD in, say, '39 after the outbreak of WWII. But that is still a bit dicey, though. A war in 1938, though, could ruin Germany. The attack on Czechloslovakia may eventually succeed (IMO they have a chance of holding out, but German numbers will tell), but the attack will be gut a lot of German formations at a time when the Wehrmacht really cannot afford this, being overstretched and in the middle of reorganizing. Then you have an economy staggering along and probably unable to survive the British Blockade, a probably Polish intervention on behalf of the Czechs, and Mussolini at best a staunch neutral and at worst a co-belligerent/major liability, and the war is rapidly becoming a losing proposition for the Germans. If the western allies can mount any sort of push into Germany, or even repel the probable Fall Gelb equivalent (which, given the different circumstances ITTL, shouldn't be terribly difficult), and if Stalin doesn't decide to muck things up, the war could be more or less over by 1940.
 

kenmac

Banned
The British could have accepted Italian actions in East Africa keeping them on side.
After the Sudentanland hand over Britain could then have signed a defensive alliance with Czechoslovakia, Poland, France and Italy.
Perhaps this may have kept the Germans inline.
Perhaps the issue of the Polish corridor could then be solved by diplomatic means as Chamberlain wished.
 
a probably Polish intervention on behalf of the Czechs,

I doubt it. Poland joined the dogpile on Czechia OTL: if they recognised that it was vital to their security (not accusing them, Britain is of course a thousand times guilty of the same mistake), they could have pledged to protect it, which would have made their combined forces sufficient to give Germany pause and very likley persuade the Entente that they were too big to fail.

The Poles would relish the opportunity to jump on a defeated Germany and take Upper Silesia and Danzig, but their behavior in OTL seems founded on the assumption that the Czechs were for it and they should get what they could out of the situation.

If the Soviets don't feel belligerant, Poland will probably digest its gains and join the fight against Germany by the time the result is obvious; but I'd hardly call that "on behalf of the Czechs". That's on nobody's behalf but the Poles.
 
Scenario,

There is a military coup against the Popular Front in France, instead of Spain.
It backfires much more than in Spain, loyalists controls much more territories, within a year, the coupists are decisively defeated.
In 1937, Spain sees violences escalates in civil war, the French loyalists intervenes. Tensions grows with Germany and Italy, Paris finally convinces Poland to join a war against Germany in exchange for a free hand in Lithuania.
1938, German forces marches into Austria in response to Spanish invasion of Portugal for supporting the right-wing insurrgency.
France started mobilising for an offensive as soon as the Spanish forces moved into Portugal and attack within 3 days of the german move.
Poland declares war too.
With the advantage of suprise, the French advances into the Rhineland, on the home front protests against the war doesn´t cause too much destructions.
After the initial successes, the French armies even attempt to march toward Berlin...
This attempt is defeated hovewer, with Spanish reinforcements they are still able to hold to the Rhine, the Poles are contained and then defeated.
Military coup in Warsaw causes political difficulties and Stalin takes advantage of that to retake regions annexed by Poland in 1920.
In Germany itself there is an attempted coup but the responsibles fails, they end upp captured and are "interrogated" non-stop for months.
Germans in the Rhineland are deported in camps scattered through France, Portugal and Spain.
1939, spring sees a German offensive against Norway and Danmerak, Franco-Spanish-Portugese attempts to stop them are a pathetic failure.
Summer sees a brutal battle for Belgium and Holland, then the Rhineland.
The allies still holds the Rhineland by autumn, with major sovietic assistance. German forces are forced beyond the Rhine but allied attempts to cross the Rhine are contained in pockets. Iron Guard coup in Romania, with Hungarian assistance.
1940, the allies decides to take out Italy, cental and southern Italy are seized but the north is taken over by the Germans.
By autumn, the allies pushes into northern Italy, yugoslavia secured from a Bulgar/Romanian/Hungarian/German/Italian takeover.
1941, Yugoslavia joins the allied side, relieving the southern front, slow progress east of the Rhine.
By the end of the year, Hamburg is encircled but pushing further into Germany cost too much soldiery.
1942, axis resistance in Copenhagen is finally subdued with heavy artillery, full embargo against german trade.
Incidents between British and French ships, German war effort collapses further, Hungarian regime attempts to betray the germans but is overthrowed.
1943, war finally comes to an end, first north Germany is occupied, then resistance is reduced to Vienna.
New governement takes power in Poland and once again joins the allies, Czechs follows but faces Slovalian secession.
Romania apparently switch side and attack Hungaria and Slovakia, securing the country from allied conquest.
Vienna levelled by the end of the year, guerilla resistance still continues. Hitler´s fate remains unknown.
1944, tensions between the allies and a Romania/Hungaria/Bulgarian/Greek/Slovakian front supported by the British, Japanese and even the Soviet-Union.
Communism becomes increasingly divided between Paris and Moscow, Stalin begin to mobilise sovietic industry and vastly expand the red army, within 3 years the Soviet-Union will strike with devastating strenght...
 
I respectfully suggest relying upon a certain Herr Elser, a carpenter with a mission. He nearly nailed Hitler with a bomb in a Munich beer hall on November 4th 1939. If he had succeeded, the resultant infighting would have caused a civil war in Germany.
 
War in 1938. The Allies can defeat, or at least contain, the Germans with a POD in, say, '39 after the outbreak of WWII. But that is still a bit dicey, though. A war in 1938, though, could ruin Germany. The attack on Czechloslovakia may eventually succeed (IMO they have a chance of holding out, but German numbers will tell), but the attack will be gut a lot of German formations at a time when the Wehrmacht really cannot afford this, being overstretched and in the middle of reorganizing. Then you have an economy staggering along and probably unable to survive the British Blockade, a probably Polish intervention on behalf of the Czechs, and Mussolini at best a staunch neutral and at worst a co-belligerent/major liability, and the war is rapidly becoming a losing proposition for the Germans. If the western allies can mount any sort of push into Germany, or even repel the probable Fall Gelb equivalent (which, given the different circumstances ITTL, shouldn't be terribly difficult), and if Stalin doesn't decide to muck things up, the war could be more or less over by 1940.

I've heard this before from other sources. A war over the Sudetenland woulld been very destructivem but not nearly as destructive as World War II. Also, Germany was not as prepared in 1938 for war, as in 1939, and would have been quickly overwhelmed by the Allies.
 
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