Best Case Scenario for the Japanese at Letye Gulf

Anaxagoras

Banned
With a POD no earlier than October 20, 1944, what is the absolute best case scenario for the Japanese at the Battle of Leyte Gulf? If everything that can go wrong for the Americans does go wrong, and everything that can go right for the Japanese does go right (without ASBs), what would the result be?
 
American scouts and planes are more vigilant, total wipeout of the IJN forces involved. Stunned, the Japanese regime is unable to react in time when Emperor Hirohito issues his speech calling for peace. Japan surrenders in May 1945.

Mao does not take over China until 1951.

In 1950 India offers diplomatic aid to Mao in return for the neutrality and independence of Tibet which is never seized by China.

Japan keeps Kuriles and the lower half of Sakhalin as the Soviets never entered the war.

The US drops the bomb on Pyongyang in 1952, many Japanese wonder just how long the US has had this horrible weapon of destruction and whether the debt owed to Hirohito for surrendering, at some personal risk, may be even greater than thought.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
American scouts and planes are more vigilant, total wipeout of the IJN forces involved. Stunned, the Japanese regime is unable to react in time when Emperor Hirohito issues his speech calling for peace. Japan surrenders in May 1945.

Good point and very interesting, but not quite what I was thinking. Let's stay focused on the immediate, military aspects of the question.
 

burmafrd

Banned
Japan got a big break by Halsey taking the bait as it was. What if he did the smart thing and split his forces and left most of the battleline with one carrier group and takes the rest north and destroys the IJN carriers while the Battleline and carrier group wipes out Kurita.
We knew the Japanese fleet would come out if we attacked the Phillipines. That was pretty much understood and the reason Halsey got the go ahead to take a risk if the IJN came out to play. Spruance had been hamstrung at the battle of the Phillipine Sea in June by orders to cover the Saipan landings first above all else. Though his pilots did destroy IJN carrier aviation once and for all time.
 
Kurita recognizes the Taffy's for what they are and smashes through them. He then proceedes to bombard the beachhead, destroying the supplies there. In the end all of his forces will be sunk, but the loss of supplies cripples the US forces ashore.

The effort of the kamikaze's is noted and more pilots voluntarily do this, causing higher USN casulties.

It won't stop Japan from losing, of course, just buy them some time...
 
Kurita recognizes the Taffy's for what they are and smashes through them. He then proceedes to bombard the beachhead, destroying the supplies there. In the end all of his forces will be sunk, but the loss of supplies cripples the US forces ashore.

The effort of the kamikaze's is noted and more pilots voluntarily do this, causing higher USN casulties.

It won't stop Japan from losing, of course, just buy them some time...

More time to get firebombed. The longer the Japanese stay in the war, the more they lose.
 

CalBear

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What did happen was about the best case. It is forgotten at times that there were still around 450 aircraft in the area ready to attack the Japanese BB's. It is also commonly forgotten that every one of the CVE had around 20 torpedoes on board, as well as a number of depth charges that could be set for shallow detonation close aboard.

Kurita suffered very heavy losses while being engaged by only Taffy Three's escorts (5 DD, 3 DE) and the aircraft of the three Taffy groups. This included the crippling or loss of four CA, with three more damaged, a CL and a DD both sunk during the engagement east of Samar, as well as noteworthy damage to three of the four BB that were engaged. In this engagement Kutita's command fired a large percentage of their AP main battery ordnance, and had most of his escort force stripped away. Any further advance would have exposed his remaining heavy units to both continued air attack, including from the untouched TF77.4.2 (Taffy Two) as well as torpedo attack from the escorting destroyers of 77.4.2 & 77.4.11.

AFTER running this second and third gauntlet, Kurita's surviving ships (how so ever many as there may have been, given the damage inflicted by Taffy Three) would have then encountered TG 77.2 with its SIX old BB, four CA, four CL, and twenty-two destroyers. While each of the Allied ships (there was an Australian CA & DD attacked to 77.2) had fired a majority of their AP ammo, the same was true of Kurita's ships IOTL BEFORE having to fight through two additional Task Groups of American vessels. Six BB with very good gun laying radar, eight cruisers and twenty two dd vs one, maybe two damaged BB without good gun laying radar, 3 damaged CA, one damaged CL, and 9 destroyers without torpedoes. Once again Kurtia's command is on the wrong side of the math problem.

Lastly, and the most often forgotten, IOTL Kurita withdrew at 12:55 hrs local time. At this time he was still several hours from contact with the beachhead forces, even if no additional combat took place (which as demonstrated above was not to be the case). At 13:30 the first strike planes from TG 38.1 appeared over the combat area with their first attack against the then rapidly withdrawing Kurita beginning at 14:00.

Kurita was never going to see the beach head.

All this aside, what happens if NO invasion of Leyte ever takes place? the IJN succeeds beyond its wildest dreams and repulses the landings. How does this change the war? Strategically, it changes not at all. Zero difference. There is a significant, tragic, increase in losses among the POW held in the Islands, this is, however, more than counterbalanced by the reduction in combat losses suffered in the more or less worthless two months of battles on Leyte.

Iwo Jima is still invaded on schedule. Okinawa is taken on Schedule. 67 Japanese cities are still burned to the ground between March and August of 1945. American submarines continue to kill anything afloat, B-29's continue to mine the Inland Sea and the sea lanes between the Home Islands. On August 6 & 9, 1945 Japan still is struck with Nuclear Weapons. With all this, does the Emperor not quail and continue the war?

If so the next seven months will see an invasion of either Luzon or Formosa and a later preparation for the invasion of Japan. During that same period of time, the USAAF is destroying a Japanese city four times a week as 8th AF resources, mostly reequipped with B-29 & B-32 bombers join the 20th AF in burning Japan to the ground. At least two, maybe three additional nuclear weapons are deployed against the Japanese civilain population before the hoarding for use during the invasion begins. Several million Japanese civilians, mostly children, starve to death while million more suffer life long disabilities from beriberi, rickets, and other illnesses related to malnutrition.
 
Best case, assuming everything goes right for the Japanese:

Nishamura put in Command of Center Force, Kurita gets the Southern force.

Japanese RAdar detects the 2 submarines at PAlawan, and due to proper antisubmarine procedures manages to drive them off.

Musashi is still sunk in in Sibuyan sea, it was always a goner.

Learning about 7th fleet from aerial reconnisance (Which did atually happen), Kurita decides not to proceed through Surigaro Straight, but instead maintains station close to the southern end.

Americans take bait of Northern force, as they did normally.

Center force ignores Taffy's except for defending against any torpedo attacks, again following standard procedures.

As the Center force approches Leyte, and the 7th fleet moves to counter it, Kurita now approaches from the south. The 7th fleet is now in a very unfavourable position, with relatively even numbers on each side. The Yamato is immune to fire from the 7th fleets battleships, whose armour offers no defence against 18" guns.

If the Americans can use airpower and destroyers to break up the Japanese cohesion, then the Japanese might see their entire fleet get sunk here, as retreat to the north is not an option anymore. If not, then the Japanese still have time to cripple the landing force and make their getaway through Surigaro.
 
If so the next seven months will see an invasion of either Luzon or Formosa and a later preparation for the invasion of Japan. During that same period of time, the USAAF is destroying a Japanese city four times a week as 8th AF resources, mostly reequipped with B-29 & B-32 bombers join the 20th AF in burning Japan to the ground. At least two, maybe three additional nuclear weapons are deployed against the Japanese civilain population before the hoarding for use during the invasion begins. Several million Japanese civilians, mostly children, starve to death while million more suffer life long disabilities from beriberi, rickets, and other illnesses related to malnutrition.

Didn't the US only have 3 A-bombs at the time?
 

Markus

Banned
What did happen was about the best case.

Sure? Kurita not only thought he was facing CVs, but also allowed his ships to leave formation and hunt on their own. If he keeps formation and presses on, the concentrated artillery fire is likely to be much more effective.
 

CalBear

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Didn't the US only have 3 A-bombs at the time?


They did.

However, they were still building them on a low production schedule. By December/January they would have had eight or nine, including an additional 1-2 uranium weapons. There was a half finished plan to use up to seven weapons in a quasi tactical fashion to support the landings on the Home Islands.
 
(snip)
All this aside, what happens if NO invasion of Leyte ever takes place? the IJN succeeds beyond its wildest dreams and repulses the landings. How does this change the war? Strategically, it changes not at all. Zero difference. (snip)

I don't know much about this battle and this paragraph struck me as curious. Would you mind explaining why the invasion and hence battle took place if there was no point to it?
 

CalBear

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I don't know much about this battle and this paragraph struck me as curious. Would you mind explaining why the invasion and hence battle took place if there was no point to it?


"I shall return!"

McArthur was determined to get his moment. He managed to talk FDR into it during a meeting with Admiral Nimitz and the President. General Marshall was also a big supporter of the invasion, without it, the Army was out of a job in the Pacific since the decision had been finalized to avoid a major action in China. Control of the Islands provided air bases for use against Japanese shipping coming out of the "Southern Resource Area" which was another argument for the invasion that doesn't really hold water since the submarine blockade was already in place and sinking well over 90% of the shipping trying to get to the Home Islands.

The Philippines were not of strategic importance, although there was a degree of vengence for the American Army in avenging the worst defeat of an U.S. field Army in its long history. Units based in the Islands added nothing to the invasion plans against Japan, and IJA forces in the region were as cut off as those on Truk or any other island.

One of the worst side impacts of this unneeded invasion was the USMC assault on Peleliu. The island had been identified as critical to defending the flank of the invasion into the Leyte/Luzon region, when it was later determined to be less important the planning was so advanced that the assualt proceeded, with the well known tragic results.
 
Control of the Islands provided air bases for use against Japanese shipping coming out of the "Southern Resource Area" which was another argument for the invasion that doesn't really hold water since the submarine blockade was already in place and sinking well over 90% of the shipping trying to get to the Home Islands.

Don't forget the mining campaign in conjunction with the submarines. There were so many mines dropped that even basic training was crippled due to losses. The only I-400 class sub lost was due to a mine while on trials.
 

burmafrd

Banned
One thing to keep in mind; the Old BB's did not fire all that many rds: The Mississippi fired only one salvo; and two others fire only a handfull of shots. They would have had more AP ammo aboard then what was left on Kurita's ships since they had been firing AP at DESTROYERS for gods sakes!'By the time they would have fought, Kurita's people would have been totally exhausted; their fire control systems further damaged, and would have been subjected to a pretty good sized torpedo attack by US and allied forces against a very much weaker screen.
Kongo and Haruna were just barely upgraded BC's (and you saw what cruisers did to Hiei at Guadalcanal- not even talking about what about 9 minutes of fire from the Washington did to the Kirishima). Two of the old BBs mounted 16" guns and the rest had 12 14" guns. US projectiles were very supperior to Japanese; Only the Mutsu and Yamato really had the armor protection to fight all the US BBs. In the end they would have been overwhelmed by shell hits and destroyed.
 
One thing to keep in mind; the Old BB's did not fire all that many rds: The Mississippi fired only one salvo; and two others fire only a handfull of shots. They would have had more AP ammo aboard then what was left on Kurita's ships since they had been firing AP at DESTROYERS for gods sakes!'By the time they would have fought, Kurita's people would have been totally exhausted; their fire control systems further damaged, and would have been subjected to a pretty good sized torpedo attack by US and allied forces against a very much weaker screen.
Kongo and Haruna were just barely upgraded BC's (and you saw what cruisers did to Hiei at Guadalcanal- not even talking about what about 9 minutes of fire from the Washington did to the Kirishima). Two of the old BBs mounted 16" guns and the rest had 12 14" guns. US projectiles were very supperior to Japanese; Only the Mutsu and Yamato really had the armor protection to fight all the US BBs. In the end they would have been overwhelmed by shell hits and destroyed.

Remember that in a "best case", there would have been no debacle at Samar. And I wouldn't write off the Kongos if you are comparing the to old American BB.
 

CalBear

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Remember that in a "best case", there would have been no debacle at Samar. And I wouldn't write off the Kongos if you are comparing the to old American BB.


I would. The Kongo was a very poor upgrade. When the San Francisco is able to pound one to scrap AND survive the engagement it is a very telling result. They were faster than the American OBB but no where near as well armored for ship to ship slugging. (torpedo protection is a different matter for the oldest USN ships)
 

Sargon

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Well, the range was pretty close when that happened. When wargaming similar engagements a number of times, most BBs come off very badly when having 8" shells lobbed at them at close range. even SoDak and Musashi suffered a lot when that was gamed out. Bismarck's armour scheme actually works to her advantage in this scenario due to that slope of her deck, but she is easier to mission kill though. She's just a bit more likely to make it out without her vitals penetrated.

As for this scenario, it'll take ASBs to help the Japanese at this stage. The transports were already unloaded by the time Kurita would have intercepted them. It was pretty much a doomed mission, but better than staying at home and getting sunk in port I guess. The best case is that the Japanese either manage to sink more US warships, or manage to leave with fewer losses. There ain't much they can do to alter anything else on the ground. Besides, Kurita was hardly in a good state to make good decisions being afflicted by dengue fever, dunked in the sea after Atago sank, having his fleet subjected to heavier air attacks than any single fleet had suffered before over a period of days, and with his crews fatigued and suffering in terms of morale. Mistakes happen easily that way, and any other fleet from any other nation would have been hard pressed to do better with all that going on, especially given the crap AAA they had.


Sargon
 

Markus

Banned
I would. The Kongo was a very poor upgrade. When the San Francisco is able to pound one to scrap AND survive the engagement it is a very telling result.

Hardly, battlecruisers are not supposed to fight at "knife" range. You can´t blame any design for failing in a task it was not designed for.

Nevertheless, an old US BB would have made scrap metal out of any Kongo, because the latter were just BCs.
 

burmafrd

Banned
For some reason the uninformed seem to think speed matters more then armor or armament. The old US BBs were slow (21 knots flank speed) but think about this: OUtside of the Kongo Class no other IJN BB could do more then 28. Not really that much of a difference, and none that matters once battle is joined.
The Kongo Class had a main belt of 8". The old US BBs had a main belt of 14". And they had better deck armor as well. While they all had not had the latest updated radar, most did. Any way you look at it, once the fight started the IJN BB's with the exception of Yamato, Mushashi and Nagato were totally outclassed by the old US BBs in everything but speed.
Add to the fact that US shells were much better then IJN shells, and you have even a bigger advantage.
 
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