Best case scenario for the Habsburgs post-WWI

There's been some talk about the Habsburgs reforming Austria-Hungary before WWI. This is not one of those threads.

From what I've read, the breakup of Austria-Hungary was a combination of the stresses of WWI and the war goals of their enemies. Serbia wanted to build their own empire from the Austrian carcass. Romania wanted Transylvania. The Czechs gave up on Austria-Hungary and spun Czechoslovakia into existence.

What I want to know is, how could the Habsburgs have retained power following the end of WWI? This is not an alt-WWI question; Germany still loses, everything is exactly the same, except the Habsburgs stay on the throne of at least one of the successor states resulting from the collapse of Austria-Hungary.

(Yes, I have read ImperialVienna's timeline, but the central premise of an upsurge in monarchist sentiment in Austria is not explained.)

A quick blow-by-blow of the circumstances leading to the Austro-Hungarian collapse would be fine, if any of you think it's necessary.
 
How early of a PoD can we use here?

1918? That means that the South Slavs have already declared for joining Serbia in forming Yugoslavia. See here and here.

Czechoslovakia is probably lost as well.

The mostly likely (IMO) is the Habsburgs somehow hanging on in either the rump Austria*, the rump Hungary**, or both. Maybe Karl somehow wangles his way into staying on as a figurehead monarch in one or both. An alternate Treaty of Trianon and Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye that acknowledges the rump states under the Habsburgs could result due to this.


*Possibly with the borders of the Republic of German-Austria.
**Maybe they get away with keeping a bit more land than IOTL, if the Hungarians aren't steamrollered by the Romanians.
 
Probably Habsburgs can get only just Austria and/or Hungary.

Austria:
1. Nazis fail take over Austria and Dollfuss survives from assassination attempt. Then he calls Otto von Habsburg as king of Austria.
2. Allies decide make Austria monarchy after WW2.

Hungary
1. Last emperor Karl I is able take power in the country.
2. There is not WW2 and in end of 40's or early 50's Miklos Hórthy decides appoint Otto von Habsburg as his successor.
 
How early of a PoD can we use here?
Verdun, perhaps? I don't want very big divergences from OTL.
The mostly likely (IMO) is the Habsburgs somehow hanging on in either the rump Austria*, the rump Hungary**, or both. Maybe Karl somehow wangles his way into staying on as a figurehead monarch in one or both. An alternate Treaty of Trianon and Treaty of Saint-Germain-en-Laye that acknowledges the rump states under the Habsburgs could result due to this.
How would Karl go about doing that? It seems to me that by the time the war ended, everyone - the Germans and Hungarians included - had lost all confidence in the Habsburgs. So presumably a POD which could preserve the Habsburgs would require a slightly better performance by Austro-Hungarian forces and a less chaotic collapse of Habsburg power.
Austria:
1. Nazis fail take over Austria and Dollfuss survives from assassination attempt. Then he calls Otto von Habsburg as king of Austria.
2. Allies decide make Austria monarchy after WW2.

Hungary
1. Last emperor Karl I is able take power in the country.
2. There is not WW2 and in end of 40's or early 50's Miklos Hórthy decides appoint Otto von Habsburg as his successor.
I suppose post-WWII restorations work as well. The problem is, during the interbellum, neither Austria nor Hungary were, strictly speaking, monarchies. Hungary was technically a monarchy, but by that time it would probably have been occupied by the Soviets, in which case the point would be moot. Would the dominant Americans have been willing to accept the restoration of a dynasty toppled two major wars ago onto the throne of even one country?
 
I think it was proposed that Otto Von Hapsburg would become King of Spain following Franco's death, but Otto rejected the idea.

There was a brief effort to make Karl I King of Hungary too I think.

A restoration in Austria may not be out of the question either.
 
Verdun, perhaps? I don't want very big divergences from OTL.

How would Karl go about doing that? It seems to me that by the time the war ended, everyone - the Germans and Hungarians included - had lost all confidence in the Habsburgs. So presumably a POD which could preserve the Habsburgs would require a slightly better performance by Austro-Hungarian forces and a less chaotic collapse of Habsburg power.

I suppose post-WWII restorations work as well. The problem is, during the interbellum, neither Austria nor Hungary were, strictly speaking, monarchies. Hungary was technically a monarchy, but by that time it would probably have been occupied by the Soviets, in which case the point would be moot. Would the dominant Americans have been willing to accept the restoration of a dynasty toppled two major wars ago onto the throne of even one country?

Post WW2 monarchy restoration to Hungary seems indeed impossible at least without very early POD but with that I talked about Hungary in world where is not WW2 and Hórthy remain in power until his death. Had Hórthy ever plans after his death?

Post WW2 Austrian restoration might be possible altough I admit tha it would be very difficult speciality when Americans would be major occupier. So there should be some earlier POD/s, perhaps even interwar POD. Perhaps Otto von Habsburg has bigger role in anti-Nazi activities and he speaks Brits and Americans accept restoration of monarchy. And it would too help if Austrians really want that.
 
There was a brief effort to make Karl I King of Hungary too I think.
I do recall that, but apparently it ran up against the Allies. So the problem becomes convincing the Allies to accept the Habsburgs. I feel like it's related to Wilson's Fourteen Points.
A restoration in Austria may not be out of the question either.
Post WW2 Austrian restoration might be possible altough I admit tha it would be very difficult speciality when Americans would be major occupier. So there should be some earlier POD/s, perhaps even interwar POD. Perhaps Otto von Habsburg has bigger role in anti-Nazi activities and he speaks Brits and Americans accept restoration of monarchy. And it would too help if Austrians really want that.
Perhaps Otto von Habsburg manages to win over more support for a restoration in Austria post-WWII, with the Archduchy taking back Italian territories snatched from Austria-Hungary. On the other hand, it does create an awkward border between Austria and Yugoslavia.
Post WW2 monarchy restoration to Hungary seems indeed impossible at least without very early POD but with that I talked about Hungary in world where is not WW2 and Hórthy remain in power until his death. Had Hórthy ever plans after his death?
I think they were intending to ask for the Habsburgs back, but the possibility of a world without WWII is too big an enormity for me to imagine writing up, personally.
 
How likely is a communist revolution in Serbia during World War One? Even if the Central Powers lose, the anxiety resulting from central Europe being bracketed by Red powers is going to make the Allies want a bulwark there. And as sick as everyone was of the Hapsburg monarchy, the smaller powers like Slovenia and Slovakia are going to think twice about going it alone.
 
How likely is a communist revolution in Serbia during World War One? Even if the Central Powers lose, the anxiety resulting from central Europe being bracketed by Red powers is going to make the Allies want a bulwark there. And as sick as everyone was of the Hapsburg monarchy, the smaller powers like Slovenia and Slovakia are going to think twice about going it alone.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_Communists_of_Yugoslavia
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creation_of_Yugoslavia

There you go. I don't think a revolution could have happened in Serbia itself during WWI, but who knows?

Serbian Wiki also tells me that the State of Serbs, Croats and Slovenes may not have been able to link up with Serbia - things were very unstable in the early course of the war. The entire country was in revolt, plus the Serbian army was barely 100,000 men strong. If the army commander had been assassinated (or something), the whole thing could have collapsed. Hmmm. It's a start, I suppose.
 

The Avenger

Banned
I suppose post-WWII restorations work as well. The problem is, during the interbellum, neither Austria nor Hungary were, strictly speaking, monarchies. Hungary was technically a monarchy, but by that time it would probably have been occupied by the Soviets, in which case the point would be moot. Would the dominant Americans have been willing to accept the restoration of a dynasty toppled two major wars ago onto the throne of even one country?
If there's no Fall of France, though, then neither the Americans nor the Soviets might actually fight in World War II.
 
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