Best case scenario for postwar Japan

[connorCD]

I think everyone who's aware of the history of postwar Japan would know that for a time, back in the 80s and early 1990s, there was a growing concern in the US that Japan would become a superpower that would rival or even surpass them in terms of power and influence. However, this never came to pass as the "Lost decades" began and Japan, while still a notable power in its own right, would never (and likely never will) earn the title of superpower (the current birth rate crisis the country's been facing certainly isn't helping matters, either).

So, with any POD after the end of WW2, what is the absolute best case scenario for Japan and what series of events are required to get such? I understand that the idea of Japan becoming a superpower probably isn't happening especially with a post-WW2 POD, but surely the country could've been had more going for it, right?

 

[Sekhmet_D]

What happened IOTL WAS the best case scenario.

 

[Nivek]

I think everyone who's aware of the history of postwar Japan would know that for a time, back in the 80s and early 1990s, there was a growing concern in the US that Japan would become a superpower that would rival or even surpass them in terms of power and influence. However, this never came to pass as the "Lost decades" began and Japan, while still a notable power in its own right, would never (and likely never will) earn the title of superpower (the current birth rate crisis the country's been facing certainly isn't helping matters, either).

So, with any POD after the end of WW2, what is the absolute best case scenario for Japan and what series of events are required to get such? I understand that the idea of Japan becoming a superpower probably isn't happening especially with a post-WW2 POD, but surely the country could've been had more going for it, right?

the only winning move is not to play, so no war is the real pod

 

[Sekhmet_D]

the only winning move is not to play, so no war is the real pod

This begs the question. If Japan never entered WW2, would it have become as prosperous as it did post-war?

 

[the Imperium of Canada]

What's a good PoD to prevent Japan from becoming a borderline de facto one party state under the LDP?

 

[ramones1986]

What's a good PoD to prevent Japan from becoming a borderline de facto one party state under the LDP?

I thought of an existence of the Japanese democratization movement (stronger and more visible) within the interwar period,

 

[connorCD]

What happened IOTL WAS the best case scenario.

Care to elaborate?

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Care to elaborate?

Nothing much to elaborate, really. The present outcome is the best possible post-war outcome for Japan. Alternatives would have been either blockaded and bombed into starvation and ruin, or subjected to an apocalyptic ground invasion that results in the near-extinction of the Japanese people. Really can't discern any sort of post-1945 political strategy or socio-economic policy that could have been implemented any better that it already was, either. If anything, Japan's OTL miraculous post-war economic recovery might be dismissed as ASB in an alternate universe where such matters are being debated.

 

[Sam R.]

This begs the question. If Japan never entered WW2, would it have become as prosperous as it did post-war?

Early Showa Japan had no access to US markets. Early Showa Japan had a ruling class so fearful of its own junior members and the proletariat that it was caught in spirals of coups and junior policy initiative. Early Showa Japan had an independently oriented economic foundation, rather than being linked into a US anti-soviet hegemony and freely funded due to a land war in Asia the US was engaged in.

Early Showa Japan limited the ability of engineers, manufacturers and human systems innovators to build consumer industry oriented plants.

Early Showa Japan lacked access to imports.

What's a good PoD to prevent Japan from becoming a borderline de facto one party state under the LDP?

Well it could be a one party state under the JCP, or a two party state under Army and Navy.

yours,
Sam R.

 

[Gillan1220]

What happened IOTL WAS the best case scenario.

I was about to say the same thing.

I have another scenario at hand:
The Allies don't disband the Imperial military due to the face of the threat of the Soviet Union, DPRK, and the PRC. This means the IJN could still use whatever carriers or warships still at port. The IJA/IJN would receive a lot of American military surplus equipment just OTL.

The U.S. would invest more on Japan as a bulwark against communism in the Far East.

 

[Dom Dom]

While Japan still has quite a lot of societal and economic problems its still considered the better outcomes considering that not only did they manage to recover but also grew their influence economically and culturally in a relatively short amount of time . Heck even the US (naively) thought that Japan would be considered a future Superpower , able to rival the US thanks to no part its 30+ years of ridiculous economic growth. And sure it isn't the best outcome (One part democracy, WW2 Apologia, Chaotic work culture, Lost decade, Diplomatic deadlock with its neighbors, racism, etc.. ) its still one of the better outcomes considering that it could end up in a much, much worst state.

 

[kholieken]

This begs the question. If Japan never entered WW2, would it have become as prosperous as it did post-war?

I think yes. Portuguese and Spain both integrated to post-war World Order. Japan lacks of natural resources and local allies would push for world econmic integration, export oriented economy, and political/social accommodation with USA.

 

[GSD310]

This begs the question. If Japan never entered WW2, would it have become as prosperous as it did post-war?

Rise and Fall of Great Powers’ Paul Kennedy argues it would have been more prosperous earlier.

"Had its [Japan's] military leaders not gone to war in China in 1937 and, more disastrously, in the Pacific in 1941, one is tempted to conclude that it would also have overtaken British output well before actually doing so, in the mid-1960s".

https://cheirif.files.wordpress.com...e-rise-and-fall-of-the-great-powers-19891.pdf p.299

It probably would have been that TL's version of OTL China, growing as both an economic and a military power.

What happened IOTL WAS the best case scenario.

I think OTL Japan was too much of an economic power, I'm curious how it would do if it had some military muscle.

What if it was like OTL but with no self-imposed cap on defense spending, no article 9 of the Constitution? It can be argued that Japan is on the frontlines of the Cold War (within vicinity to the USSR, China, and the DPRK) and needs to be bolstered.

 

[Vassonx]

The Japanese Lost Decades were pretty much an inevitability for the corporatist economic policy Japan had pursued through its post-war history by nature of ballooning its general economy to provide capital for the sectors that actually mattered, all the while relying on national conservative and reactionary social policies as an onus for their society that ended up disillusioning the majority of its people from engaging with the very society the state had built for them. The tendency of extremely successful national conservative developmental states eventually petering out in economic traction and undergoing a rapid decline of its demographics is something we can see with China, South Korea and Singapore right now.

For Japan to not only prevent the Lost Decades, but the profound alienation of its youth from Japanese society is to prevent what was bringing them the good times in the first place. Bring greater regulation to its financial sector, and start pursuing healthier (less riskier) methods of economic growth and a far more inclusive and less-alienating society. Taiwan sort of managed to do it, I'm sure Japan can.

 

[Changundramon]

The 1968 protests lead to a surge in leftist popularity, and an electoral victory for the Socialists. A socialist, neutral Japan is the result, with better working conditions and women's rights approaching that of Scandinavia. The Japanese Confucianism-inspired socialism becomes the main competition to the Soviet type of socialism.

 

[Pipcard]

I think everyone who's aware of the history of postwar Japan would know that for a time, back in the 80s and early 1990s, there was a growing concern in the US that Japan would become a superpower that would rival or even surpass them in terms of power and influence. However, this never came to pass as the "Lost decades" began and Japan, while still a notable power in its own right, would never (and likely never will) earn the title of superpower (the current birth rate crisis the country's been facing certainly isn't helping matters, either).

So, with any POD after the end of WW2, what is the absolute best case scenario for Japan and what series of events are required to get such? I understand that the idea of Japan becoming a superpower probably isn't happening especially with a post-WW2 POD, but surely the country could've been had more going for it, right?

What happened IOTL WAS the best case scenario.

And sure it isn't the best outcome (One part[y] democracy, WW2 Apologia, Chaotic work culture, Lost decade, Diplomatic deadlock with its neighbors, racism, etc.. ) its still one of the better outcomes considering that it could end up in a much, much worst state.

With the aforementioned issues, you can't just say OTL is the very best case scenario. That's why I had an idea for a TL called "A Brighter Sunrise" which is all about addressing those issues (not perfectly, but an improvement over OTL).

(the POD would be before the end of WWII, though)

 

[Lee-Sensei]

Early Showa Japan had no access to US markets. Early Showa Japan had a ruling class so fearful of its own junior members and the proletariat that it was caught in spirals of coups and junior policy initiative. Early Showa Japan had an independently oriented economic foundation, rather than being linked into a US anti-soviet hegemony and freely funded due to a land war in Asia the US was engaged in.

Early Showa Japan limited the ability of engineers, manufacturers and human systems innovators to build consumer industry oriented plants.

Early Showa Japan lacked access to imports.

Well it could be a one party state under the JCP, or a two party state under Army and Navy.

yours,
Sam R.

I'm not convinced that Japan would be worse off in a scenario where they avoid the economic disruption of almost a decade of war.

 

[Pipcard]

The Japanese Lost Decades were pretty much an inevitability for the corporatist economic policy Japan had pursued through its post-war history by nature of ballooning its general economy to provide capital for the sectors that actually mattered, all the while relying on national conservative and reactionary social policies as an onus for their society that ended up disillusioning the majority of its people from engaging with the very society the state had built for them. The tendency of extremely successful national conservative developmental states eventually petering out in economic traction and undergoing a rapid decline of its demographics is something we can see with China, South Korea and Singapore right now.

For Japan to not only prevent the Lost Decades, but the profound alienation of its youth from Japanese society is to prevent what was bringing them the good times in the first place. Bring greater regulation to its financial sector, and start pursuing healthier (less riskier) methods of economic growth and a far more inclusive and less-alienating society. Taiwan sort of managed to do it, I'm sure Japan can.

The original idea for my “A Brighter Sunrise” timeline was that Japan’s economy would grow more slowly but be better off by the present day. However, I was told by @Erodian that social policy reforms (and immigration into a country) mostly occur after the economy has sufficiently grown.

Generally speaking, a country becomes more socially liberal, secular, and individualistic as it becomes economically developed. Japan was no exception. As it grew richer, its values became more individualistic, catching up to the US by the 90s. As with other countries, its values moved toward "self-expression" as opposed to "survival" as a result of it becoming rich. And as with other countries, working hours starts to fall as it grows wealthier. By delaying Japan's rise to a wealthy, developed countries, it seems highly likely that Japan's shift in social and cultural values will also be delayed. It could end up more socially conservative than OTL.

There is also the issue of immigration. Unless Japan miraculously manages to raise fertility rates to at least 1.9, it will require immigration to avert the well-known demographic issues. In OTL, Japan is struggling enormously to attract immigrants, despite relatively lenient immigration laws in many categories (overall restrictiveness it's not much different from other OECD countries). But in this timeline, Japan won't be wealthier than its neighbors, which would remove one of the last pull-factors that might motivate people to immigrate to Japan. If Japan is to have any chance to pull migrants from abroad, the minimum prerequisite should be that Japan remains substantially richer than its neighbors, at least throughout the 20th century.

 

[Nivek]

I'm not convinced that Japan would be worse off in a scenario where they avoid the economic disruption of almost a decade of war.

Of course any economy will be better without it, that's why the only winning move is not to play

 

[Sam R.]

You don’t play and the army executes you and appoints a government that starts two stupid impossible wars. Early Showa Japan couldn’t not play. I mean a Navy counter coup is interesting but you’re still locked out of consumer markets and have an insane heavy industrial colonial policy in Korea.