Best Case Scenario for Poland in 1939?

trajen777

Banned
the only possibility was diplomatic --

Hitlers offer was very good actually -- taxes and rev from Danzig to Poland -- and alliance against Russia in future -- now whether it would hold after 1 - 10 years who knows -- but Poland could expect no help from Allies (as far as not being overrun) and their borders were unenforceable -- and their other Neighbors all anted a piece of them.
 
the only possibility was diplomatic --

Hitlers offer was very good actually -- taxes and rev from Danzig to Poland -- and alliance against Russia in future -- now whether it would hold after 1 - 10 years who knows --
This would be bad for Japan, as the Allies have been re-arming per OTL, and if Germany can settle relations with France and Poland, there's no way Japan can hold out for 10 years.
 
The core problem with all these potential agreements & settlements is no one of importance trusted the German government by August of 1939. Repeated promises broken, violations of existing treaties, & suprise occupations of soverign nations on flimsy pretenses buily a airtight case for a complete lack of trust. The seminal event was the occupation of Bohemia only four months after a guarantee not to do so. The British government had thrown the Cezchs under the bus precisely to avoid this. & it happened anyway.

The Poles were forced into a pointless game to conceed as much as they did in the negotiations that summer. Hitler was determined to destroy Poland to acquire stratigic depth in the east & accquire the resources. Had the Poles conceded the last demands & signed some sort of treaty with Germany they'ed found themselves in the same position as the Cezchs in March 1939, invaded anyway.
 
The core problem with all these potential agreements & settlements is no one of importance trusted the German government by August of 1939. Repeated promises broken, violations of existing treaties, & suprise occupations of soverign nations on flimsy pretenses buily a airtight case for a complete lack of trust. The seminal event was the occupation of Bohemia only four months after a guarantee not to do so. The British government had thrown the Cezchs under the bus precisely to avoid this. & it happened anyway.

The Poles were forced into a pointless game to conceed as much as they did in the negotiations that summer. Hitler was determined to destroy Poland to acquire stratigic depth in the east & accquire the resources. Had the Poles conceded the last demands & signed some sort of treaty with Germany they'ed found themselves in the same position as the Cezchs in March 1939, invaded anyway.
Plus surrendering the Danzig Corridor basically ensures that Poland is going to be economically dependent on Germany even if Hitler doesn't invade. Almost 78% of Polish exports left via the ports in the Corridor, which means that at any moment Hitler could essentially smash the Polish economy. No nation wants to be in a position where another nation can destroy its economy, and that goes double when the other nation is headed by a guy who's broken every single promise he's made.

And to those who say that it couldn't be any worse for Poland: Stalin originally considered annexing Poland, but was persuaded by the British and the Americans not to. Since ITTL Britiain and America wouldn't be Poland's allies there's nothing to stop Stalin from creating a Polish SSR.
 
There was something of a Polish-Romanian alliance IOTL. If Romania mobilizes alongside Poland in 1939, and Stalin's invasion is somehow prevented (Stalin notices Romania mobilizing, is spooked, backs down to see how long it takes Germany to win) how long could they both last against Germany?
 
from the military perspective, the best case scenario would have been to withdraw, per their plan, to Romanian border? but they were fearful that Germans would seize Danzig and other border areas and simply declare victory.

There was something of a Polish-Romanian alliance IOTL. If Romania mobilizes alongside Poland in 1939, and Stalin's invasion is somehow prevented (Stalin notices Romania mobilizing, is spooked, backs down to see how long it takes Germany to win) how long could they both last against Germany?

Germany had ties to far right in Romania (which assassinated prime minister shortly after invasion of Poland in operations also meant to kill king) and Hungary (which declined to participate against Poland but would have no qualms against Romania.)

hard to believe the Soviets would not capture the majority Ukrainian and Belorussian areas of Poland as well as Bessarabia from Romania? but even if they do not act it seems Romania could offer little help outside their own borders. the rationale for Poland not to evacuate to border area was as posted above, Germany could seize large area and declare victory.

a rump state of Poland would be left with no access to sea, no navy, and no air force (which might actually be better outcome than IOTL but not seen as viable strategy at the time)
 
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ccdsah

Donor
A bit ASB, but something like
Pact Ribbentrop - Beck
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pact_Ribbentrop_-_Beck#cite_note-1 The webpage of the book states: "In the history of nations there are moments when one has to bite the bullet and allow for painful concessions. To give up in order to save the nation from destruction, and its citizens from slaughter. This was the situation of Poland in 1939. Piotr Zychowicz claims in his book that the decision to enter the war against Nazi Germany in an illusive alliance with France and Great Britain, was a grave mistake, for which we paid a horrible price. History could have turned in a different way. Instead of biting off more than we could chew, we should have used realpolitik. We should have made concessions to Hitler, and agreed for annexation of the Free City of Danzig into the Third Reich, as well as for the construction of an extraterritorial highway across the Polish Corridor. And then, together with the Germans, we should have attacked the Soviet Union. Forty valiant divisions of the Polish Army, fighting on the Eastern Front would have sealed the fate of Stalin's empire".[2]


The author writes that if Poland had not opposed Adolf Hitler in September 1939, World War II would have started on April 9, 1940, with a German attack on Western Europe. After capturing Paris, and defeating Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Denmark and France, on June 21, 1941, the Wehrmacht, together with the Polish Army, attacked the Soviet Union. By the winter of 1941/42, the Soviet Union ceases to exist. Poland and Germany divide its territory, but soon afterwards, mutual relationships deteriorate. At the same time, Germany keeps fighting the United Kingdom, and the United States. This war is costly, and by 1944, all main units of the Wehrmacht are in Western Europe, fighting the Anglo-Saxons, who had landed in France in summer 1944. In those circumstances, Warsaw begins secret negotiations with London and Washington, eventually switching sides, and attacking the Third Reich in 1945. As Zychowicz writes: "At this point, Poland should have acted like Romania and Hungary in late stages of World War Two. Noticing German problems in the West, both countries initiated secret negotiations with the Allies. The British and the Americans gladly accepted the offer, understanding that it would weaken the potential of the Axis powers". [7]
Finally, when the Third Reich prepares for a decisive battle in the West, the Polish Army invades Germany. Surprised, the Wehrmacht does not fight the Poles, who capture Silesia, Eastern Prussia, and Western Pomerania, cutting off all lines of communication with German units which had remained in occupied Soviet Union. In August 1945, the Western Allies capture Berlin, Hitler commits suicide, while Polish armored divisions clear the Baltic States. Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia join the federation of Poland, Belarus and Ukraine: "The dream of Marshall Józef Piłsudski has become reality. Poland emerges as Great power. During a peace conference, which takes place at Polish Baltic Sea spa of Jurata, Winston Churchill, Harry Truman and Edward Śmigły-Rydz discuss the future of Europe"
 
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