Best case for Austria-Hungary?

[BlondieBC]

What you ask is not so simple (plus the avoiding of WWI), expecially for a ruling class so fearfull of taking any serious risk or diminishing their power as the Hasburg

I am not so sure who you see as the "ruling class" who is "fearful of taking serious risk". The sealed orders had been issued to corp commanders to do an internal decapitation of the Hungarian nobility. To me, this is an aggressive action with serious risks. The Hungarians wanted to be a separate nation of 25 million, and creating new nations has substantial risks as almost every new nation state created in history shows. So we see Hungarian and Austrian leadership is willing to take big risks at times.

The United States of Greater Austria was also a risky idea. As was the WW1 plan to create Poland with a Hapsburg on the throne.

And ruling a state of many nationalities is never simple, especially when bordering enemies. Modern India is quite a challenge to rule, but it show it is not impossible, as did the old Yugoslavia or Ottoman Empire.

 

[Mikestone8]

Des it have to be a genuinely independent Austria-Hungary?

If the CPs, win, the Empire probably survives in form, if only because to annex it (or even half of it) into the Reich is probably too disturbing of Germany's internal politics to be considered. And if it is to be kept going as a German protectorate, the Habsburgs will probably make just as good "viceroys" as anyone. There may well be a very tight military alliance, allowing Germans to serve in the Habsburg Army and vice versa, to a point where the two armies are de facto combined, but on paper the two states remain separate.

 

[lukedalton]

I am not so sure who you see as the "ruling class" who is "fearful of taking serious risk". The sealed orders had been issued to corp commanders to do an internal decapitation of the Hungarian nobility.

Because the hasburg never really try to solve the situation, only to put some patch and hope the things solve themselfs. Unwillingly to give up some power they created a nation in a precarious equilibrium who cornered himself regarding option.
Plus the United States of Greater Austria was not a risky move...as none had the intention of really create it till it was way too late

 

[Uruk]

So how do we avoid A-H in WW1? A-H decides the risks are to great and accepts the Serbian response or Russia which had told Serbia to accept the ultimatum decides to sacrifice Serbia to gain time to complete its re-armament?

 

[BlondieBC]

Because the hasburg never really try to solve the situation, only to put some patch and hope the things solve themselfs. Unwillingly to give up some power they created a nation in a precarious equilibrium who cornered himself regarding option.
Plus the United States of Greater Austria was not a risky move...as none had the intention of really create it till it was way too late

Yes they did look at series moves, and some of them were done.

1) Split Galicia into Polish speaking administrative area and Ukrainian.

2) 1915 proposal to give Western Galicia to a new Poland, rejected by Germany.

3) 1905. Almost trigger a civil war to fix issue with Hungarian elite. Back down at last moment.

4) USGA was done before the assassination. It was a serious proposal, that was likely rejected by the heir because he was not yet in power. Likely he had moved on to another option by his death, but he was looking at ways to solve the issues.

5) Giving minorities language rights in Austria.

They tried and were ultimately not successful, mainly due to WW1. You are mistaking ultimate failure for not trying. There is a big difference in losing a competition and not showing up to compete.

 

[BlondieBC]

So how do we avoid A-H in WW1? A-H decides the risks are to great and accepts the Serbian response or Russia which had told Serbia to accept the ultimatum decides to sacrifice Serbia to gain time to complete its re-armament?

Sure, that is one way. Now in an interesting Irony, the Russians had started mobilizing four hours BEFORE the Austrians received the reply. And since mobilization was consider very near declaring war, it is possible the Austrians accepting the reply would still lead to war, I don't quite trust Nickie's and Willie's having the better judgement to stand down. I have consider writing a TL where Austria takes 72 hours to accept Serbia offer, and the war has started by then.

Now avoiding any war with A-H over the next generation would be much harder since every major power underestimated the cost of a war and overestimated their chance of winning.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

So how do we avoid A-H in WW1? A-H decides the risks are to great and accepts the Serbian response or Russia which had told Serbia to accept the ultimatum decides to sacrifice Serbia to gain time to complete its re-armament?

Avoid Franz Ferdinand's assassination. Not sure if WW1 is completely butterflied away (although it's possible), but it would probably not start with a crisis involving Austria- Hungary.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Des it have to be a genuinely independent Austria-Hungary?

If the CPs, win, the Empire probably survives in form, if only because to annex it (or even half of it) into the Reich is probably too disturbing of Germany's internal politics to be considered. And if it is to be kept going as a German protectorate, the Habsburgs will probably make just as good "viceroys" as anyone. There may well be a very tight military alliance, allowing Germans to serve in the Habsburg Army and vice versa, to a point where the two armies are de facto combined, but on paper the two states remain separate.

The Prussians didn't really want the terribly Catholic Austrians in the Empire.

 

[Mikestone8]

The Prussians didn't really want the terribly Catholic Austrians in the Empire.

Which is one reason why, as I suggest, they may prefer to maintain the facade of an independent Ausria, rather than trying to absorb it formally.