Bernie Sanders Midterm

With Trump about to face the jury of the voters in 2 weeks in his first ever Midterms still undecided I wanted to hypothesize how a Bernie Sanders midterm would play out. Obvious a Hillary Presidency would be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats with R’s retaining the House and probably having a supermajority in the Senate and Governorships. How would Bernie have done if he had won a hypothetical landslide in 2016 that gave the Dems a slight Senate majority?
 
He probably wouldn’t do too differently than HRC in the midterms. The map already favors the GOP. Midwestern states might be bigger reaches than they would be otherwise but I’d still expect a GOP win in the midterms.
 
Well, if you want a precise answer, it's better seeing the polls numbers the 6th November.
However I can assume some trend lines:
- in a parallel with Trump and Republicans, more Sanders-like candidates win primaries. Of course, some Trump-likes candidates lose their bid in Republican field or decline to contest without President's support.
- Democrats do better in Midwest and blue-collar areas (especially Great Lakes).
- conservatives media and politicians attack strongly on some false accuses to Sanders (you know, "He is socialist, communist, Jew, atheist, Venezuelan traitor and the Red Anti-Christ!" or something similar), following the scheme "If the other candidate is charismatic, you don't try to beat him on topics but cover him with all mud you can imagine" (we see it with Obama).
- probably the accuse of Socialism and Sanders left-wing policies can weak Democrats in some conservative and swing states.
- with no great immediate success to show (a narrow Congress majority can easily block control-gun-laws and Healthcare for All), the "first MidTerm-President's Party lose seats" scheme continues.

So, considering that the 2018 map in very unfavorable to Democrats, in Senate races we can imagine:

- Tennessee (Corker vs Bredesen), Florida (Nelson vs Scott), Mississippi (Hyde-Smith vs Espy), Texas (Cruz vs O'Rourke) and Missouri (McCaskill vs Hawley) probably Red.
- North Dakota (Heitkamp vs Cramer) and Montana (Tester vs Rosendale) toss-up, with Tester safer than Heitkamp. Indiana is a great point, depending by candidates: what about Donnelly vs a come-backing Mike Pence?
- Arizona (Ward vs Sinema), West Virginia (Manchin vs Morrisey/Blankeship) and Nevada (Heller vs Rosen) probably Blue.

Result: Democrats lose their Senate majority.

About Gov races, considering that Sanders has a great grassroot organization, a big vantage in local elections, I can imagine:

- Florida (Putnam vs Gillum), Georgia (Cagle vs Abrams), Arizona (Ducey vs Garcia), Ohio (DeWine vs Kucinich), Nebraska (Brownback vs Richetts), Maryland (Hogan vs Jealus) and South Carolina (Haley vs Smith) probably Red.
- Alaska (Begich vs Dunleavy) and Maine (Moody vs Mills) toss-up, with Mills safer than Begich.
- Oklahoma (Lamb vs Edmonson), Kansas (Colyer vs Kelly), Iowa (Branstad vs Hubbell), Wisconsin (Walker vs Evers), Michigan (Schuette vs El-Sayed), New Mexico (Pearce vs Lujan), Nevada (Laxalt vs Sisolak) and Illinois (Rauner vs Biss) probably Blue.

Results: mixed as Democrats fail to win some important states (Florida and Ohio) but make historical victories in Corn Belt and Rural America (where there is not Trump to rallies people behind Elephant banner). Depending by Sanders VP, Democrats could take some bonus in his/her home state.

Conclusion: considering the bad map and strong opposition from conservatives and corporations, it's a good result for Democrats. 2020 will be more equilibrated and with more partecipation due Presidential Year. More important in 2019 it's probable that a Supreme Court with two Sanders nominees struck down suppression vote, gerrymandering and pro-Super PAC legislations, so the race will be more open and free.

PS I'm not American but let me say that to Americans visitors: it's too important to stay at home, so Go to Vote and Good Luck!
 
Kennedy was a liberal-swing vote judge. If he decided to retire with one of the most reactionary President of US History to nomine his successor, I don't see a valid reason to not avoid with Sanders President. Probably Kennedy could get along more with Sanders positions than with Trump.
 
I don't know what glue your sniffing but Kennedy is pro Corporate 95 % of the time and only Liberal in the sense that he doesn't hate gay people. But his rulings have been severely detrimental to minorities rights, labour protection, environmental protection, and health protection.
 

CalBear

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I don't know what glue your sniffing but Kennedy is pro Corporate 95 % of the time and only Liberal in the sense that he doesn't hate gay people. But his rulings have been severely detrimental to minorities rights, labour protection, environmental protection, and health protection.
Play the Ball.
 

CalBear

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With Trump about to face the jury of the voters in 2 weeks in his first ever Midterms still undecided I wanted to hypothesize how a Bernie Sanders midterm would play out. Obvious a Hillary Presidency would be an absolute bloodbath for Democrats with R’s retaining the House and probably having a supermajority in the Senate and Governorships. How would Bernie have done if he had won a hypothetical landslide in 2016 that gave the Dems a slight Senate majority?
DO NOT post current politics anywhere but Chat.
 
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