Bernard Lord as Conservative Party Leader

So I was just reading Harperland, and it mentioned when the Canadian Alliance and Conservative Parties were merged, New Brunswick Premier Bernard Lord was touted as the potential front runner. It was only after the Conservative Party barely held on in the New Brunswick election of 2003 that Lord decided to turn down a federal party run, figuring he needed to focus on the province.
So what if the provincial Conservatives do better in that election(apparently rising car insurance rates were one of the biggest issues)? Lord is more personable and less alienating than Harper is, and could probably do better in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, although the new Conservative's western base would be upset at losing out to a bilingual Easterner. If Lord becomes the head of the Conservatives, could there be an earlier Conservative majority, and how different would Canada be under PM Lord?
 
Getting Lord to become leader is actually pretty tricky. The man has had plenty of opportunities to enter federal politics (I heard he came close in 2011) but has consistently said no.

Still, for the sake of argument, let's say the Tories win a safer majority in New Brunswick. Lord resigns to run for the federal leadership and Elvy Robichaud, Trevor Holder, Brad Green, or Percy Mockler succeed him. My money is on Green as interim and Robichaud as permanent. But if Lord runs for leader he'll get an impressive network behind him, including Mulroney, Peter Van Loan, possibly Mike Harris, basically all of Atlantic Canada, large chunks of Quebec and Ontario, and maybe a bit out around BC. A Lord candidacy might mean no Belinda Stronach, because there wouldn't be much of a point for her to run.

But remember, Stephen Harper is no pushover. He'll have the united West and large segments of Ontario backing his candidacy. Plus the Conservatives are still dominated by Alliance members who will view Lord, a Red Tory, suspiciously. I think Lord would win, but it would be a narrow victory and Harper will be given a key position within the shadow cabinet, probably Finance and Deputy Leader. Or who knows, Harper could up and get out of federal politics. He's unpredictable.

As leader Bernard Lord is young and untested and will make plenty of gaffes and mistakes, and could even see some friction between himself and the CA faction of the party. The Liberal Party on the other hand is a well-oiled machine and it just anointed Paul Martin. The new Tory party is in the same position as OTL, which is still healing from the merger, still trying to find a voice, and still dodged by accusation that it has a "hidden agenda" of some sorts. I don't think the Conservative Party of Canada is capable of winning a majority in 2004. At best, with seats in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in play, you could see Lord win a minority like Harper's in OTL 2006. Whether he could translate that into a majority and keep the party in power for about a decade, I'm unsure.

But if Lord becomes Prime Minister and Harper remains in politics, my gut tells me he'd get Finance, maybe even Deputy Prime Minister. He'd also be dubbed the odds-on-favourite to replace Lord as leader by the media, similar to Kenney and MacKay.
 
At best, with seats in Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes in play, you could see Lord win a minority like Harper's in OTL 2006. Whether he could translate that into a majority and keep the party in power for about a decade, I'm unsure.

But if Lord becomes Prime Minister and Harper remains in politics, my gut tells me he'd get Finance, maybe even Deputy Prime Minister. He'd also be dubbed the odds-on-favourite to replace Lord as leader by the media, similar to Kenney and MacKay.

Okay. I'd agree with Harper staying in the party. However, if Lord win sa minority in 2006, and governs at least as well as Harper did, and similarily calls an election at the end of 2008, I doubt he'd make the decision to cut arts funding that Harper did. Most commentators I've read say that cost the Conservatives a dozen seats in Quebec. Given that the OTL Conservatives ended up with 143, adding those dozen gives Lord jusssstt enough for a majority, notwithstanding any gains he'd pick up in the Maritimes.
 
Okay. I'd agree with Harper staying in the party. However, if Lord win sa minority in 2006, and governs at least as well as Harper did, and similarily calls an election at the end of 2008, I doubt he'd make the decision to cut arts funding that Harper did. Most commentators I've read say that cost the Conservatives a dozen seats in Quebec. Given that the OTL Conservatives ended up with 143, adding those dozen gives Lord jusssstt enough for a majority, notwithstanding any gains he'd pick up in the Maritimes.

If Lord wins a minority in either 2004, 2005, or 2006 I'm betting he has a better chance at winning a majority the second time around than Harper thanks to his Quebec roots. He wouldn't cut the arts funding while trying to make gains in the province (still don't know why Harper did that).

So in his second election, if it went similar to Harper's without some of the controversial controlling of ministers, MPs, and scientists, not to mention no cutting of arts funding, I'd argue that Lord could win something like 20 seats in the province. Maybe more, maybe less. The Tories are still controversial in the province, plus they have to contend with the Liberals, who might not pick Dion, and Gilles Duceppe. If Lord can be a little more friendly with the PLQ or the ADQ, depending on who wins in 2007, it could help. But I'm no Quebec expert.

I'd say if Lord were to win his first majority he'd probably get something in the high 150s or low 160s.
 
If Lord wins a minority in either 2004, 2005, or 2006 I'm betting he has a better chance at winning a majority the second time around than Harper thanks to his Quebec roots. He wouldn't cut the arts funding while trying to make gains in the province (still don't know why Harper did that).

So in his second election, if it went similar to Harper's without some of the controversial controlling of ministers, MPs, and scientists, not to mention no cutting of arts funding, I'd argue that Lord could win something like 20 seats in the province. Maybe more, maybe less. The Tories are still controversial in the province, plus they have to contend with the Liberals, who might not pick Dion, and Gilles Duceppe. If Lord can be a little more friendly with the PLQ or the ADQ, depending on who wins in 2007, it could help. But I'm no Quebec expert.

I'd say if Lord were to win his first majority he'd probably get something in the high 150s or low 160s.

Its not just that: out of the Quebec area and some rural regions (and even there) anything to the right of red tories pretty much disqualify itself in Quebec. For most quebeqers even considering Harper was out of the question except for maybe a very short moment in 2008.

Combine that with the basic fact that he his a french speaker and you have the ingredient for a him to do well enough in Quebec to maybe win in 2004 and probably have is majority sooner then Harper.
 
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