Berlin - Tokyo after an Axis Victory

Macragge1

Banned
Although this post was inspired by reading the Onion article 'Japan Allies With White Supremacists In Well-Thought-Out Scheme' (and namely its last line and Aryan supermen wipe out the undesirable mud races one by one, your like will surely survive to be among the last to be exterminated.") it got me thinking about how the uneasy alliance would evolve following a victory by the Axis powers. Naturally, the plausibility of an Axis victory is a hotly contested subject on this board, so for the sake of discussion let's do the generic peace w/ Britain and Rump USSR in Europe scenario to fulfil the German part. Japan, obviously, is harder - lets just assume that greater US isolationism (which also causes the UK to be starved out) means that Japan gets away with a couple of naughty acquisitions and perhaps a push into Russia when it becomes clear that the time has come.

Now both countries have achieved their war aims (or at least in Japan's case, are surviving), the key cause for their alliance is void; after all, the Axis was, officially, an anti-Comintern pact. These friends of convenience have now lost their convenience. Once this has fallen apart, the problem of the huge differences between the two empires becomes clear. Over the short and long term, this leads to various possibilities:

- I guess in the short run there'd be joint parades and handshakes and stuff, and I can't imagine the pact would be formally broken, but what little co-operation that had occured during the war would stop as both sides try to consolidate their gains.

- Given the huge distance between the two powers, and their limited power projection, it would take some time before any possible flashpoints occured on shared borders - however, all sorts of contention could occur with regards to trade, or how each party carries itself in its occupied zones; given that the US (and to some extent, the British Empire) is still in the picture, the two might well stay together in a revitalised anti-Jewish or anti-Imperialist pact or whatever they want to call it.

- The biggest problem with this scenario comes with the unknown nature, rife with butterflies, of the Reich or Japan in the '50s and 60's - all sorts of different tangents might be taken - 'moderates' such as Bormann or Speer, for example, would probably be more likely to tolerate their 'subhuman' allies than rabid fanatics like Himmler or Heydrich; similarly, the more militaristic within Japan may now contract a fatal dose of victory disease and start pushing their luck (much as they did with America's 'sleeping giant' in our timeline) - in The Ultimate Solution (which presents a highly unrealistic Axis world domination), for example, Heydrich's 'Contraxists' eventually lead the world into nuclear war in the 1960s by striking a similarly nuclear Japan.

Of course, in this situation, all this may never happen - the great distances between the two, and the fact that they'd already pushed their luck massively, might mean that they get on relatively peacefully despite their obvious differences. Obviously, I'm no expert but I'd love to hear your ideas on how it'd go.
 
I suppose it depends on whether or not the Nazis maintain their . . . flexibility . . . in racial designation.

I'm pretty sure the Japanese were considered to be Honorary Aryans. With someone saying that the Japanese are what all other Asians should aspire to be.

It's entirely possible that the two could keep up their alliance. But what about Italy? Did they get anything out of this victory?

Peace or no peace, I'm sure Britain and even the US wouldn't be too happy. The Axis remains convenient because they'd still have a powerful ally and trading partner, right?
 
It should be noted that the WWII *Allies* weren't very likely Allies either. The long-term goals of the USA, USSR, and UK were incompatible. So were those of Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany. The difference, of course, is that no Axis victory would result in Imperial Japan or Nazi Germany meeting in the heart of the defeated USSR as was the end of the Allied victory. My guess is after the war the Axis will fall apart and while Germany will not allow Europe to resurge I could see the USA and Japan forming a joint Anti-Fascist bloc.
 
When Japan joined the Axis, it changed its perception by the US, which felt that the action by Japan was directed at the US. At the time, Germany still had a non-aggression pact with Russia.
The perception, being that the US judged any 'peaceful' words by the warmaking company it was keeping, as being of less worth than before. It brought war with the US more likely.
While, Germany victorious is however unlikely, not impossible; but Japan victorious very hard to envisage. It needs - no Roosvelt, no oil embargo, no aid to Chinese, no rearmament, and ceding to Japan the western Pacific by default!!?
 
I doubt thing will change Germany cant hold down eveything to the Urals, their best case outcome is a Brest-Lovask Treaty of Brest-Litovsk type peace and the Japanese will only realistically get Trans-Amur and parts small parts of Far Eastern Siberia. Really expansion there don’t yield them much assuming the Red Army’s eastern forces don’t smash their attacks again.

Anyway with Japan trying to hold down huge parts of China with most of it beyond their effective control along with other problems in their empire, and Germany with a ruined economy and slowly turning into North Korea or Zaire under Mobutu Sésé Seko depending on who takes power once Hitler kicks the bucket. Added with the looming threat of the USA over both the decaying Axis powers.

Give me the idea of doing a dystrophic Germany wins TL, showing just how hilariously rotten and short lived Nazi rule will be once Hitler dies, of course it would last long enough to screw all of Europe up to a degree that OTL looks positively utopic Eastern-Bloc and all.
 
When Japan joined the Axis, it changed its perception by the US, which felt that the action by Japan was directed at the US. At the time, Germany still had a non-aggression pact with Russia.
The perception, being that the US judged any 'peaceful' words by the warmaking company it was keeping, as being of less worth than before. It brought war with the US more likely.
While, Germany victorious is however unlikely, not impossible; but Japan victorious very hard to envisage. It needs - no Roosvelt, no oil embargo, no aid to Chinese, no rearmament, and ceding to Japan the western Pacific by default!!?

Japan doesn't so much have to win as keep Germany from losing. Midway saw hundreds of bombs dropped but was only won by 10 lucky ones. If those 10 for whatever reason never hit and then Japan slams into the US fleet around Midway Island with the same overwhelming force they had IOTL the result would be that the USA is going to retain its naval effort as a primarily Pacific War thing for far longer than it actually did. And with the USA's aid in the Atlantic War very limited that gives Hitler a much longer Second Happy Time.

If Japan also continues to deal a longer set of beatings to the Allies it will hogtie US efforts to co-operate with the UK and the USSR, which itself is going to have massive butterflies in 1942.

I doubt thing will change Germany cant hold down eveything to the Urals, their best case outcome is a Brest-Lovask Treaty of Brest-Litovsk type peace and the Japanese will only realistically get Trans-Amur and parts small parts of Far Eastern Siberia. Really expansion there don’t yield them much assuming the Red Army’s eastern forces don’t smash their attacks again.

Anyway with Japan trying to hold down huge parts of China with most of it beyond their effective control along with other problems in their empire, and Germany with a ruined economy and slowly turning into North Korea or Zaire under Mobutu Sésé Seko depending on who takes power once Hitler kicks the bucket. Added with the looming threat of the USA over both the decaying Axis powers.

Give me the idea of doing a dystrophic Germany wins TL, showing just how hilariously rotten and short lived Nazi rule will be once Hitler dies, of course it would last long enough to screw all of Europe up to a degree that OTL looks positively utopic Eastern-Bloc and all.

My feeling is that you're right on all this.
 
But what about Italy?

It would take the position of the Mediator.
friendly to germany, no reason to be hostile toward japan, big minority (thus some political weight) in USA and Argentina, no neal reason to squabble with the UK apart from malta, no-one really worried by its military might.
And, of course, good eating and a wonderful place for an ambassador wishing to conceal a holiday under a diplomatic urge
I expect a lot of conferences agreements and accomodations in Rome
 
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