Berlin or Bust - An Unthinkable Operation
- Thread starter johnboy
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Probably. The Soviets have more then two corps for every WAllied division (which effectively means they have two divisions for every WAllied one, given the differences in organization and strength) and a reconstructed and geared up war economy that isn't really dependent on lend-lease any more, but the Soviet economy is already running maxed out with little slack while the Americans still have room to mobilize. The Soviets starting things has the potential to solve the WAllies own PR problems, but it's still going to be a long, hard war.
Uh, if the Soviets are smart (and they need to be since they have been in total war for the past 5 years), they would just use their immediate advantage to punch into the German plains reach the Rhine, form a defensive barrier strong enough to hold the front, and then punch through northern norway and use the plethora of subs that they had to destroy shipping through the med and create a massive propaganda campaign in Germany, Poland, Hungary etc highlighting the West as the aggressors, which would bring in a lot of volunteers.
Unless America is willing to bring down thousands of nukes into Eastern Europe, it will be pretty impossible to dislodge the soviets, even more so when the fact is that the Mahattan project had loads of soviet spies and the soviets could have sped up their nuclear program too to create a dangerous situation for america.
Unless America is willing to bring down thousands of nukes into Eastern Europe, it will be pretty impossible to dislodge the soviets, even more so when the fact is that the Mahattan project had loads of soviet spies and the soviets could have sped up their nuclear program too to create a dangerous situation for america.
BrotherLeandros
Banned
The poor bastards in Germany. 12 years of Hitler and now having their entire nation turned into WW1 Belgium.
The Soviet navy had practically no ability to contest the Mediterranean and Germans, Poles, and Hungarians wouldn't exactly be eager to fight the Western Allies at Stalin's behest. Additionally, the Soviet military forces in Europe were decidedly inferior to those of the Allies and their economy was in a shambolic state. All in all a recipe for disaster.
At least their logistics are not ready to go much further than OTL and there are enough WAllied forces to slow them down to a crawl.
Navy in the med? Of course not. But simply clogging the RN and USN outside of the Black Sea by lining up the 30 or 40 subs the Soviets had in the Black Sea against the Bosphorus means any break in movement by enemy naval forces would be suicidal; or very very very heavy to the point shore reinforcements would be able to deal the final damage.
Also.......what?
This is from Operation Unthinkable: The Third World War: British Plans to invade the Soviet Union by Jonathan Walker
Chapter: US War Hawks
" The US Joint chiefs began conducting espionage and intelligence reporting during the ending months of WW2 in Europe with the goal of a confrontation with the Soviet Union. It assessed Soviet Military Capability on the European Continent with growing fears of paranoia regarding the Soviets and their infamous Red Army. They concluded that out of the 264 Soviet Divisions in Europe, the Soviets would be able to utilize around 81 of these Divisions in offensive operations alongside 25,000 tanks, and 60,000 artillery pieces. Due to this factual black lining, the joint chiefs concluded that should war break out the Soviets would be able to overrun western Europe. However the truth is slightly more complex than that. In reality that Soviets were capable of utilizing 92 Divisions offensively with 28,000 tanks and 64,000 artillery pieces. However despite this increase in numbers, the Soviet logistics would not allow the Red Army to enter France. At most, it would allow Germany to be overrun completely alongside some places of Netherlands. Such an alarming prospect made the US Army Joint Intelligence Committee to calculate the effect of 'blocking' such an offensive into Europe by unleashing nuclear weapons. 20 Soviet Cities were chosen by the US Intelligence Committee to become radioactive wastelands, however the American Joint Intelligence Committee was excluded from American nuclear secrets, and later from declassified information after the fall of the Soviet Union, it was found that such an attack would have been suicidal as simply 5 of these bombs landing would be an immense success as the Red Airforce and their ground defense network would have made an indepth aerial attack to plant those bombs nigh impossible."
"Allied Intelligence and maps regarding the Soviet Union were also very faulty and outdated, with most maps coming from the 1925-37 era and by 1945, much of the mapping of the Soviet Union had become obsolete. Many cities had been abandoned, and many new ones like that off the Soviet Secret Cities propped up. Many American and British Bombs would have been hitting debris simply for the sake of it and with no real end gain except for perhaps the danger of being gunned down."
Chapter: Home Front
"Whilst many British and American leaders had blustered about War with the Soviet Union, such an event would not have sat well with the population at home nor the army. In such an event, Britain and America would have no support from France, and De Gaulle emphasized on this. Around a third of the French Army was communist or socialist in leaning, and around the same proportion of ministers in the French cabinet were communist. Almost all of the recovering French economy and industries were centered around Trade Unionists and Socialists. Such a war with their Communist 'Motherland' would have shut down the French economy and would have pushed the shaky liberated France to the brink of civil war, which was something every Frenchman wanted to avoid. The same was the case in Italy where the Communist militias were armed to the teeth and had been exponential in the death of Fascist Italy. The Operation would have seen a massive upsurge of communist guerillas and rebellions in Italy, France and the Benelux, and not in small numbers either.
However the case of industrial shortage and problems does not end in France. In Britain and America itself, many Left-wing unions controlled a good deal of wartime industries; moreso in Britain than in America, however they made their presence known in America as well. A War with the Soviet Union would be running the risk of cutting off 8 to 10% of British industrial potential and around 3 to 4% of American industrial potential. In absolute terms to us these percentile does not seem like much, however for a war effort, even a difference of 2% could be war winning.
The public opinion would have also been very unfavorable. In 1939 it was Germany who struck first, and in 1941 it was again Germany. In this scenario it would the Western Allies striking first at the perceived enemy that Allied propaganda had made out to be 'friend of the allies' for the past 5 years. So much so that many in the west believed that fighting 'Uncle Joe' was out of the question. There was also a running risk that many American and British units would mutiny against a long and hard slog against the Soviets, like the Wanna Go Home Mutinies and Royal Navy Mutinies of late 1945 and early 1946 when tensions with the Soviets started to run high. The prospect and eventuality of war would have certainly led to many desertions and mutinies, something that was not sustainable for the Western Allies.
It was also highly likely that huge amounts of infrastructure in Europe and Britain would have been shut down by trade unionists and especially in Germany where the communist sympathizers had been suppressed by the Nazis. In fact it was likely that many communist militias would have opened up mini fronts in Germany as well which would wreck utter havoc on possible Allied lines.
On the long run, the operation was increasingly unfeasible. Ever since mid-1944 Britain had been dissolving a division a month, and by the end of the war still had chronic manpower problems, the British Army would not have been able to advance properly into Soviet Occupied territory and would have largely been able to only act as reserve troops for the American army which was the only allied army in Europe which could have gone on the offensive against the Soviets.
However what made the plan inevitably unfeasible and very unlikely was that the Soviets knew about the plan. It is not known when or how, and it was probably the Cambridge 5, however from between December 1944 to May 1945, the Soviets and Joseph Stalin got ahold of information that the British and Americans by allegiance were planning some kind of attack on the USSR. They did not know the clearer details or finer objectives, but they knew enough to become extremely paranoid, and was one of the factors why the Red Army regrouped in Poland and the Elbe River. Such a preparation for war would have made the Soviets know immediately and the Soviets would have started defensive operations and constructions immediately. Knowing that there was a high chance the Soviets already knew, the plan was scrapped by both the US and UK."
Chapter: Quick Victory?
"Economically and Militarily putting the facts before us, it is much more easy for us to analyse the likely outcome if the operation went ahead. It is highly possible that such a war would have led to a negotiated agreement, however it was also highly likely that the war could have gone sideways. In the long term, the Western Allies could have pushed the Soviets towards the Elbe, however in such a case, the Western Allies would have to be willing to give up Iran, Greece and Iraq to the Soviets, as the disparity between Soviet and Allied forces in these areas were in an even higher disparity than in Europe.
It is also almost inevitable that the 1.2 million men Stalin had placed in the Far East eyeing Japan would have been immediately transferred to Central Asia and Iran from where they would strike. This would be extremely problematic as the Indian Situation for the British was getting worse, and the third highest political association in the British Raj was communism, which made the likelihood of internal problems hindering any possible indian commitment even higher. The Allies had in their zeal to supply the Soviets with Lend Lease built the infrastructure of Iran to the levels that the Red Army could take advantage of them and invade Iran and Iraq. The loss of these two nations and their natural resources would have been a heavy blow to the Western Allies and bring communism to the borders of India. This scenario was almost inevitable and both American and British observers agreed on this fact. Greece would have most certainly fallen. Turkey in such a scenario would have likely opted out and play both sides off one another; though being surrounded by communists on three sides would have made Inonu more amenable to some concessions to Kremlin.
In conclusion, with all economics, and home fronts and all facts taken into account, the Western Allies could have won Operation Unthinkable......at the risk of making the Middle East a Soviet Lake, and making Western Europe a communist guerilla paradise. Such an event would have taken up millions of Allied Lives, coupled with millions of Soviet Lives, and there was still a good amount of chance that the Soviets would have been able to drive to the English Channel; if France got involved at all; which would have had disastrous consequences. The Soviets had stockpiled a humoungous amount of weapons and rations and their war economy could have functioned normally for another year or two. Such a scenario was why it was called Unthinkable, the benefits were too low, and the costs too high; and that is not taking into account the utter confusion that would reign in the Pacific Front as the Americans would have contend with the Red Fleet as well; which whilst small was no easy foe either and would guarantee another thousands of americans to the depths of sea. And the domestic situation in the western countries were not favorable for a war at all. Any excuse such as friendly fire would have been ignored as Soviets and British/Americans had been exchanging friendly fire ever since early 1945, in events such as when the Soviets managed to gain three B-29s out of a friendly fire incident. The operation had in the end been named aptly, for it really was unwinnable one way or another; as it would be trading one thing for another with very blurred goals while running the risk of making communists throughout Western Europe rise up during the time of their peak popularity."
In 1945 the Russians had 16 operational submarines in the Black Sea, hardly a deterrent to the two best navies of ww2 I would think.
That, and any attempt to contest the Mediterranean would be suicidal against Allied methods. The Soviets could not even prevent the German evacuation of Courland, and this was in the Baltic.
Never heard of any of this; and in any event, it's wrong. The Soviets had fewer tanks than the Allies, fewer (and lower quality) aircraft, a weaker logistical net, practically no maritime capability and an economy running on fumes: they would have lost, badly.
In late August 1946 there was a discussion between the US and British Chiefs of Staff over the possibility of evacuating the Continent should a war have broken out, but that was then, not May '45.
2 May 1945 - Strategic situation for the U.S and allied Armies
3 May 1945, Pentagon, Washington D.C, United States of America
Well, thought General of the Army George Marshall Jnr, now the fat was in the fire. It was a hell of a way for the Navy to win it's argument against the invasion of Japan. There would be no Operation Downfall now, no Olympic or Coronet. Instead it would be the Navy's plan that was adopted, a plan that involved the total isolation of Japan, which would be subdued by a combination of bombing and aerial mining, effectively starving the country, now largely helpless outside of China, into submission. Even the Manhattan Project, if it came to fruition, would likely now not be directed at Japan as originally planned but instead in the European theater of operations. The new urgency of the situation had seen him personally contact Nichols to be assured that the weapon was still on track for early July 1945 and after that point at least one weapon per month would be available, sometimes two.
With the Russians attacking all along the common front, it was now a matter of trying to hold onto what part of Europe that had been liberated so far. With Hitler dead and the Wehrmacht shattered, even the Germans were no longer a concern. The Russians would be fresh after only commencing their latest offensives in early April. In many sectors they were still being held up by the Germans, who were streaming West to surrender and still providing resistance to the Russians.
The U.S Army had substantial forces in Europe. To the South Devers 6th Army Group consisted of 10 Infantry and 2 Armoured Divisions, as well as 9 French Infantry Divisions and 6 Armoured. Bradley's 12th Army Group was the most under pressure. It had another 36 Infantry and 12 Armoured Divisions. Montgomery's 21st Army Group has 13 Infantry and 11 Armoured Divisions. In all 99 Divisions or equivalent.
On the Italian and Austrian border was Marc Clark's 15th Allied Army Group consisting of 6 Infantry and one Armoured Division, one Brazilian and five weak Italian Divisions and one South African Armoured Division, as well as 10 British Infantry and 4 British Armoured Divisions. In all 28 more Divisions.
These were not the only forces in Europe, however. The 13th Airborne and 66th and 106th Infantry were in reserve or in France. he British had a Infantry and an Armoured Division in the Middle East and two Divisions in the U.K, both under-strength. The British had two Divisions in Greece. France had 8 Infantry and one Armoured Division in France. In all, it was 145 Divisions in Europe.
Now that there would be no invasion of Japan, it was the Pacific that extra manpower would have to come from. The Borneo operation could be cancelled, freeing two Australian Divisions, likewise the cutting edge of the Navy, the three Marine Divisions that had finished the Iwo Jima invasion. The 98th Infantry. These were Divisions that could be moved immediately or close to it. More than six would likely have to be found, however.
Then there was the vexed questions of the Germans. Whether to rearm and field German units, a conundrum with the French in particular in the field, as well as Polish units.
Well, thought General of the Army George Marshall Jnr, now the fat was in the fire. It was a hell of a way for the Navy to win it's argument against the invasion of Japan. There would be no Operation Downfall now, no Olympic or Coronet. Instead it would be the Navy's plan that was adopted, a plan that involved the total isolation of Japan, which would be subdued by a combination of bombing and aerial mining, effectively starving the country, now largely helpless outside of China, into submission. Even the Manhattan Project, if it came to fruition, would likely now not be directed at Japan as originally planned but instead in the European theater of operations. The new urgency of the situation had seen him personally contact Nichols to be assured that the weapon was still on track for early July 1945 and after that point at least one weapon per month would be available, sometimes two.
With the Russians attacking all along the common front, it was now a matter of trying to hold onto what part of Europe that had been liberated so far. With Hitler dead and the Wehrmacht shattered, even the Germans were no longer a concern. The Russians would be fresh after only commencing their latest offensives in early April. In many sectors they were still being held up by the Germans, who were streaming West to surrender and still providing resistance to the Russians.
The U.S Army had substantial forces in Europe. To the South Devers 6th Army Group consisted of 10 Infantry and 2 Armoured Divisions, as well as 9 French Infantry Divisions and 6 Armoured. Bradley's 12th Army Group was the most under pressure. It had another 36 Infantry and 12 Armoured Divisions. Montgomery's 21st Army Group has 13 Infantry and 11 Armoured Divisions. In all 99 Divisions or equivalent.
On the Italian and Austrian border was Marc Clark's 15th Allied Army Group consisting of 6 Infantry and one Armoured Division, one Brazilian and five weak Italian Divisions and one South African Armoured Division, as well as 10 British Infantry and 4 British Armoured Divisions. In all 28 more Divisions.
These were not the only forces in Europe, however. The 13th Airborne and 66th and 106th Infantry were in reserve or in France. he British had a Infantry and an Armoured Division in the Middle East and two Divisions in the U.K, both under-strength. The British had two Divisions in Greece. France had 8 Infantry and one Armoured Division in France. In all, it was 145 Divisions in Europe.
Now that there would be no invasion of Japan, it was the Pacific that extra manpower would have to come from. The Borneo operation could be cancelled, freeing two Australian Divisions, likewise the cutting edge of the Navy, the three Marine Divisions that had finished the Iwo Jima invasion. The 98th Infantry. These were Divisions that could be moved immediately or close to it. More than six would likely have to be found, however.
Then there was the vexed questions of the Germans. Whether to rearm and field German units, a conundrum with the French in particular in the field, as well as Polish units.
I think that this question is a political thorny one and resolving it would take more time than situation on grond has. I think that in the next 2/4 weeks stoping/stabilising the frontlines is the number One goal of the allied commanders in the field. They will not make any noises about rearming the Germans (Patton ??), but supplying still active units with food/fuel/ammunition (they have to get rid of captured german stocks anyway), provide aircover/groundsupport etc is another thing, These things could be arranged at an low level staff contacts and provide a fig leave for the allied leaders/goverments. The germans would be co-belligerents and not allied forces.
Operation Unthinkable is something I was not aware was even considered before reading this. Such a thing could have dramatically changed what happened after WWII and I am curious to see how this turns out and what history will look like instead.
Gendarmerie
Banned
How many divisions could the allies realistically raise from Germany if they rearmed the surviving German units/pows/civilian
Not that many Germany was already drafting old men and boys at wars end.
In the book" Red Inferno 1945" by Robert Conroy, war breaks out between the SU and the Western Allies. While I have not read it for a couple of years, I believe that in the book, the German government in Flensburg offered several things to the Western Allies. 1) Immediate surrender of all remaining German units, 2) Sharing of all current intelligence of the SU army and plans, 3) establishing networks to help shot down pilots to get back to the Allied lines, 4) access to any and all German military supplies and I think some other things. In the book, German soldiers became technical advisors to the Americans on using German weapons. Soon the Germans were fighting along side the Americans.
I do not know if you are thinking about a similar level of support by the Germans.
Also, it is my understanding that by this point, The SU was running out of manpower. While they still have sizable armies in the field, they do not have large reserves after years of war.
I do not know if you are thinking about a similar level of support by the Germans.
Also, it is my understanding that by this point, The SU was running out of manpower. While they still have sizable armies in the field, they do not have large reserves after years of war.
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The US also had strong armored forces in the Pacific and in CONUS. On 1 January 1945 there were 13 Separate Tank Battalions in the Pacific and 5 in the US (one of which, the 662nd, was disbanded in February 1945). Each marine division also had a tank battalion. There were also 23 amphibious battalions (5 tank, 18 amphibian tractor), of which 18 were in the Pacific, 13 tank destroyer battalions (5 of which were disbanded in February and April '45), and 2 mechanized cavalry troops.
Non-divisional artillery forces in the Pacific theater as of August 8 1945 numbered 53 battalions excluding antiaircraft: 3 x 75mm howitzer, 8 x 105mm howitzer, 3 x 105mm SP, 16 x 155mm howitzer, 8 x 155mm gun, 7 x 203mm howitzer, 1 x 203mm gun, 5 x 240mm howitzer, and 2 x 4.5 inch rocket.
The British likewise had mechanized forces in Burma.
Non-divisional artillery forces in the Pacific theater as of August 8 1945 numbered 53 battalions excluding antiaircraft: 3 x 75mm howitzer, 8 x 105mm howitzer, 3 x 105mm SP, 16 x 155mm howitzer, 8 x 155mm gun, 7 x 203mm howitzer, 1 x 203mm gun, 5 x 240mm howitzer, and 2 x 4.5 inch rocket.
The British likewise had mechanized forces in Burma.
From what I recall, they also have the choice to either demobilize large portions of the Red Army.... or starve as the harvest rots away in the fields. Actually theoretically I suppose they could assign all those German POW's to agricultural work instead of their OTL rock breaking duties, but that still will require someone to guard them.
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