Bering Strait Rail Bridge is completed before WW1

[Braden Anderson]

One of the factors most critical to the success of White Russia and the Allies during the Russian civil war was control over the Trans-Siberian Railway. What if there was already a dual-gauge bridge connecting this rail system, along with the Chinese-Manchurian Railway, to rail networks in the US and Canada?

Obviously this probably isn't a big enough divergence to result in an all out white victory, but is it out of the question that Russia would be de-facto partitioned? I doubt the Soviets would sign an official peace agreement, but is it out of the question that Siberia could stay independent and be recognized by the League of Nations?

I'd love to hear y'all's thoughts on this. Also:

• If the Whites maintain control over Eastern Russia, would the Reds still break their alliance with the Blacks? Will Mahknovia survive?
• What impact will this have on the Polish-Soviet War? Will the League of Nations and western governments still pressure Poland to accept the Soviet peace offer, or will they show no mercy?
• With a rail connection to the US, does Roman von Ungern-Sternberg have better luck than in OTL? What does this mean for Mongolia?
• Will the US and Japan butt heads after the war for influence over Siberia? I'm sure the US would accept them taking North Sakhalin, but what if they want a Siberian client state? (Like Transamur in Kaiserreich?)
• Would there be any chance of Siberia asking to join the United States? Would there be a movement either in Siberia or the US supporting annexation?
• With so much more infrastructure, strategic value, and population than in OTL, does Alaska gain statehood earlier? Is oil discovered there earlier?
• If oil is discovered, would this (along with the bridge and a friendly Siberia) make the US a major energy supplier in eastern Asia? How does this affect US-Japanese relations going forward? (AFAIK Japan had chronic shortages of oil in OTL WW2)
• How else does this affect the world?

I won't go in to detail on exactly what the POD for this is (suggestions are welcome).
Possible PODs:

• Joseph Strauss's offer is initially accepted by the Russian Empire in 1892
• Russo-Japanese war either doesn't happen or has an alternate outcome, resulting in a stronger Russian Empire with more money to spend on infrastructure
• Shabad & Motes' proposal is accepted in 1907
• The American government builds the bridge, or works with Russia to do so in a plan not proposed in OTL

 

[Braden Anderson]

Also what is WW2 going to look like, if it even happens?
The US sphere of influence will share a land border with both the Co-prosperity sphere (stronger than OTL) and the Comintern (weaker than OTL).
Poland might be way stronger than it was in OTL, possibly taking territory from Lithuania, Ukraine, and Russia. (Second P-L Commonwealth?)
The US might be less isolationist, or way more isolationist, depending on the cultural impact and public opinion of the war.
Anarchism is possibly still around in Ukraine, adding a fourth ideology into the mix. (slightly ASB)

 

[mrmandias]

Certainly intriguing.

My first thought is the the OTL Bolshevik Revolution was highly susceptible to butterflies. Even a few flaps of the wing probably does away with it.
But assuming things still basically run their course up until the Russian Civil War, I think what you need is a lot of US/Canadian/British investment in the Russian Far East, spurred by the railroad, which leads to a lot more US/Canadian/British interest in defending and supporting the Whites in that area.

 

[GorillaTheater]

You'd first have to build over 3000 miles of railway that didn't (and still doesn't) exist, and over some seriously challenging landscape including permafrost. It's really difficult to see it being economically justifiable.

 

[Braden Anderson]

I think what you need is a lot of US/Canadian/British investment in the Russian Far East, spurred by the railroad, which leads to a lot more US/Can adian/British interest in defending and supporting the Whites in that area.

Perhaps a more intense Red Scare in the US would make them more eager to fight communism abroad? Suppose the Palmer raids uncover soviet sleeper cells, or the mail bomb attacks are different than in OTl (perhaps they are even worse and make people even more opposed to communism, or maybe they take out mostly isolationist politicians)
Even if Allies put in no more effort than in OTL, even the mere presence of this railway would diversify White supply chains and free up White forces from having to defend certain rail lines within Russia.

You'd first have to build over 3000 miles of railway that didn't (and still doesn't) exist, and over some seriously challenging landscape including permafrost. It's really difficult to see it being economically justifiable.

Well maybe you don't think so, but aparrantly in OTL Tsar Nicholas did.
"Czar Nicholas II approved a tunnel (possibly the American proposal above) in 1905.[6] Its cost was estimated at $65 million[7] and $300 million including all the railroads.[6]" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#20th_century)
He was likely thinking about more than just economics in making this decision. Geopolitics likely played a role in his decision, like how Vladimir Putin built that bridge across the Kerch Strait in OTL.
It's not a money maker, just a square on the chessboard.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Impossible with a 1900 PoD. Given that the Russians had a lot of trouble building the TransSiberian by 1905, and a railway all the way to the Bering Strait, with no strategic or economic purpose, might well bankrupt the Russians. Then add to that the necessity to build a RR across chunks of BC and the Yukon, and then the entire width of Alaska.
THEN you somehow have to build a bridge/tunnel, whatever, across the Bering Strait. This would surely cost more, probably far more, than the Chunnel. And would have to be done with absolutely no infrastructure at either end.

Technically not ASB, I suppose, but the PoD that generates the will, and ability to produce that much money is so staggeringly huge that WWI would likely be unrecognizable. Probably the Russians would have sink so much money and effort into it that they don't dare support the Serbians, and 1914 is only Yet Another Balkan War.

 

[Braden Anderson]

Impossible with a 1900 PoD. Given that the Russians had a lot of trouble building the TransSiberian by 1905, and a railway all the way to the Bering Strait, with no strategic or economic purpose, might well bankrupt the Russians. Then add to that the necessity to build a RR across chunks of BC and the Yukon, and then the entire width of Alaska.
THEN you somehow have to build a bridge/tunnel, whatever, across the Bering Strait. This would surely cost more, probably far more, than the Chunnel. And would have to be done with absolutely no infrastructure at either end.

Technically not ASB, I suppose, but the PoD that generates the will, and ability to produce that much money is so staggeringly huge that WWI would likely be unrecognizable. Probably the Russians would have sink so much money and effort into it that they don't dare support the Serbians, and 1914 is only Yet Another Balkan War.

That's a great point. I thought about putting it in the 'before 1900' forum, but given the focus of the thread and my lack of a clear POD I decided against it.
As I said earlier, though, Russia did approve this project in OTL. So it's not that crazy that America and Canada would complete the rest.
Make up whatever POD you want to justify Russia's fat wallet (or reckless spending)
Perhaps there's a natural/industrial disaster/strike in a different part of the world that causes a much lower supply of, and jump in prices for, some commodity found in Russia. Russia is able to export this resource more, and at a higher price, than in OTL.
Say the resource is coal. This is plentiful in far eastern Russia, which gives us both the funds and the incentive to connect eastern Russia more directly to rail networks.

I'm not really looking to nitpick the plan to build the railway, though you do bring up good points. Let's just say it's built and then talk about the consequences.

Edit: I still really like your theories about the effects this would have on WW1, I'd love to speculate on that as well.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Maybe if America and Russia fight an alternate WWI together where enemy Britain cuts the two countries off from each other, and the consensus post war is that inability for America to send supplies to Russia was a major reason for the difficulty total war caused society. America and Russia consequently decide to build a railroad across the Bering Strait (at significant financial costs) for military reasons with at most a tiny economic niche. Society is willing to waste the money because of the perception that it can prevent or reduce the hardships they experienced during the war in the future.

A pre 1900 PoD where America builds a wasteful railroad to Anchorage by 1900 and Russia completes the Trans-Siberian Railroad much earlier would obviously help.

 

[Braden Anderson]

Maybe if America and Russia fight an alternate WWI together where enemy Britain cuts the two countries off from each other, and the consensus post war is that inability for America to send supplies to Russia was a major reason for the difficulty total war caused society. America and Russia consequently decide to build a railroad across the Bering Strait (at significant financial costs) for military reasons with at most a tiny economic niche. Society is willing to waste the money because of the perception that it can prevent or reduce the hardships they experienced during the war in the future.

A pre 1900 PoD where America builds a wasteful railroad to Anchorage by 1900 and Russia completes the Trans-Siberian Railroad much earlier would obviously help.

Could you describe this WW1 more? If the US and Russia fight Britain, does that mean that the US invades Canada?
A railroad to Alaska makes much more sense if there's no pesky Canada in the way.

 

[Jiraiyathegallant]

Could you describe this WW1 more? If the US and Russia fight Britain, does that mean that the US invades Canada?
A railroad to Alaska makes much more sense if there's no pesky Canada in the way.

I don’t have anything in mind other than that the US and Russia fight Britain (or someone else with naval superiority) together and still have their alliance intact post war for long enough to cooperate on an expensive bridge together.

 

[Zheng He]

Interesting wiki on this topic - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

In 1900, the longest transport tunnel in the world was the Gotthard Pass tunnel at 15km.
I haven't found the longest bridge then.
But a Bering Strait tunnel and bridge might well involve both the longest tunnel and the longest bridge. This, in a part of the world with no local labour to hire, where all the food and machinery and tools and housing has to be shipped in during Arctic summer. In an area where the geology is not been explored, where ice floes in the winter will take down the first attempts at a bridge.

The Gotthard Pass tunnel took 10 years. Even with a location right in the heart of industrial Europe.

Because of the short supply season - and working season for the bridge(s), it's going to take longer.
Let's not forget that if a problem is discovered, you might have to wait most of a year for a fix to be developed.

Honestly, even if an ASB appeared to all the world's leaders on 1jan 1900 and said that humanity would be destroyed unless there were such a connexion, I doubt it could be completed by 1914.

Could some Gear sign off on a deal? Sure. Could several million dollars / rubles / whatever be sunk into the project? Maybe. Could it be finished in 15 years, even with unlimited funds? I really, really doubt it.

 

[alexmilman]

One of the factors most critical to the success of White Russia and the Allies during the Russian civil war was control over the Trans-Siberian Railway. What if there was already a dual-gauge bridge connecting this rail system, along with the Chinese-Manchurian Railway, to rail networks in the US and Canada?

Here is Trans Siberian Railroad (in red)

Here is Alaska Railroad (completed in 1923)

Here is Northern Pacific Railway

Here are Canadian railroads:

Now, there are some obvious questions:
(a) How (before WWI) to connect Trans Siberian Railroad to something that did not exist before WWI and even now has no connection with the rest of the Canadian and US railroads?
(b) How to build and maintain a railroad of more than 3,000 km (distance between Trans Siberian Railroad and Bering Strait) over the mostly uninhabited area with no supporting infrastructure?
(c) How to justify this absolutely insane project financially?

 

[alexmilman]

One of the factors most critical to the success of White Russia and the Allies during the Russian civil war was control over the Trans-Siberian Railway. What if there was already a dual-gauge bridge connecting this rail system, along with the Chinese-Manchurian Railway, to rail networks in the US and Canada?

Putting aside a complete impossibility of a technical part of this WIF, I think that you have certain misunderstandings regarding the RCW.

1. Trans-Siberian Railway was really important only for the Czechs as their way out of Russia.
2. Failure of the White movement on the East (especially one of Kolchak's government) was due to its inability to raise an army of a size needed to oppose the Reds with any chance for success.
3. Failure of the White movement in European Russia (Voluntary Army, army of Yudenich, etc.) had nothing to do with TSR and had the same root: inability to attract enough people on its side. Memoirs of general Wrangel are quite revealing on that account.
4. The Allies relevant to the TSR (the US and Japan) were not involved to a degree that could change situation substantially. Not because there was no railroad from Alaska (hardly mattered in the case of Japan which remained on the Russian territory until 1922) but simply because none of them had any intention to get involved in a new major war. They were not too interested in extensive supply of the White forces either: this could be easily done by shipping across the Pacific quite easily without any fantastic railroad. Their initial goals were to secure supplies of munitions and armaments in Russian ports and, initially, also to help the Czechoslovak Legion and to to re-establish the Eastern Front. An idea of overthrowing the Bolsheviks did not have enough of a domestic support.

• If the Whites maintain control over Eastern Russia, would the Reds still break their alliance with the Blacks? Will Mahknovia survive?

Answers are "yes" (had been done more than once) and "no". Relations between the Reds and Makhno had nothing to do with Kolchak.

 

[Braden Anderson]

Now, there are some obvious questions:
(a) How (before WWI) to connect Trans Siberian Railroad to something that did not exist before WWI and even now has no connection with the rest of the Canadian and US railroads?
(b) How to build and maintain a railroad of more than 3,000 km (distance between Trans Siberian Railroad and Bering Strait) over the mostly uninhabited area with no supporting infrastructure?
(c) How to justify this absolutely insane project financially?

a:

• Canadian Rail network is connected to Alaskan rail network via an intermediary line along the Pacific Coast.
• A rail ferry takes the train cars from Fairbanks west along the Tanana and Yukon rivers, stopping somewhere between what is now Koyukuk and Kaltag, Alaska. (this ferry line will later be replaced with rail)
• The train takes whatever optimal route is chosen from the banks of the Yukon westward across the Seward Penisula, finally arriving in Wales, Alaska. (This might be named the Iditarod Line)
• The Train takes the tunnel / bridge to the Diomede Archipelago. It it is stopped upon crossing from Little Diomede to Big Diomede to undergo Russian Customs inspection and border crossing procedure. This archipelago is where the two lines would meet, and where the ceremonial golden spike would be hammered in. There is likely some sort of memorial commemorating Russian/American friendship.
• From Big Diomede the bridge takes us to mainland Russia, possible with a stop in the city of Uelen. Past this point I'm not sure, IDK enough about Russian geography.

b: Penal labor in Russia and Chinese people with work-visas in America. Technology-wise, everything's already there.

c:

• Connect Alaskan Oil to US rail networks
• Connect North American markets to all of Asia
• Tell people that it will pay for itself with tolls and tariffs on the hypothetical massive volume of trade with Asia.
• It's manifest destiny
• It strengthens the defensibility of Alaska

 

[Braden Anderson]

Putting aside a complete impossibility of a technical part of this WIF, I think that you have certain misunderstandings regarding the RCW.

1. Trans-Siberian Railway was really important only for the Czechs as their way out of Russia.

So do you think this intercontinental railway would actually hurt the whites, as it provides an easy escape route for the Czechoslovak Legion?

 

[Kevin C. Smith]

The effect of a Pre-WWI all rail route between Russia & North America, on the Russian Civil War? My best guess is, you have butterflied away the February Revolution, and all that comes from it.

-Supply, supply, supply. The Dardanelles Campaign was to open supply routes to Russia. A direct route from at Allies biggest supplier direct to Allies weakest front? Russia probably doesn't lose as much, as badly.
-US participation in the war. The US will come in, with Russia still fighting. The quickest, easiest, and safest way to get the boys "over there" will not be across the Atlantic to France, but across Siberia to Russia. Russia either captures more territory in the East (instead of losing), or France does in the West-as the Germans strip the Western Front to hold back the Russians.

 

[Mad Bad Rabbit]

A tunnel was not feasible with Edwardian technology; it'd probably be just a gravel causeway (the water is 100' deep or less).

This will block warm Pacific water from moving through the Bering Straits into the Arctic, and it is possible this could disrupt the Atlantic Conveyor and trigger a new Ice Age by the 1970s. Oops.

 

[Ramontxo]

The effect of a Pre-WWI all rail route between Russia & North America, on the Russian Civil War? My best guess is, you have butterflied away the February Revolution, and all that comes from it.

-Supply, supply, supply. The Dardanelles Campaign was to open supply routes to Russia. A direct route from at Allies biggest supplier direct to Allies weakest front? Russia probably doesn't lose as much, as badly.
-US participation in the war. The US will come in, with Russia still fighting. The quickest, easiest, and safest way to get the boys "over there" will not be across the Atlantic to France, but across Siberia to Russia. Russia either captures more territory in the East (instead of losing), or France does in the West-as the Germans strip the Western Front to hold back the Russians.

This the supply to Russia was a vital question an one able to change the curse of the war. The question is I don't see how this, the Bering strait bridge plus the whole new rail network to it from both Russia and Canada and the USA) would be more efficient than carrying the cargo to Vladivostok by ship which I suppose was used to full capacity . So the question is what could have been done to improve the transiberian railway that wasn't done before and during the war. Maybe a huge loan by Britain and France so that the neutral USA improve Vladivostok and double where possible the existing railway?

 

[DougM]

I am sorry but I think this IS ASB. Building this today would be rediculusly hard but with 1900 technology? Not going to happen. Just overcoming the permafrost and the freezing ice issues to build the track roadbed and the bridge foundations is going to be hard enough but to span the distances between the islands?
The over seas railway that was built down the Florida Keys was considered a major undertaking and they build that in a warm area. And I believe that the water is generally shallower on average. And I think the distance between keys is not as far.
But now we are going to basically build a larger version and do it in the Artic?
Sorry but it is not going to happen. Even if it is not ASB level difficult (and if it isn’t it is close) no one not even governments will be able to afford it. You are talking what would without a doubt be the most technologically difficult undertaking in the history of the world by a wide margin and all of it in the Artic. The cost in human lives and injuries would be so rediculus that the US government would be forced out of it. Picture the fronts bite along. Then add in the slips and falls from the wet/cold/icy conditions. Now don’t forget that tools are going to slipfor the same reasons. So you get a lot of injuries from tool slips. Now those tools are going to break/breakdown a lot because of the weather (take a look at the problems with tools and equipment building the Alaskan Highway and that was in better conditions with 40 years improvements to the technology)
So the cost just to pay off the injuries and deaths added to the cost in repairs or replacement of equipment will bankrupt this project. And at the time in the US the News Papers and the people were starting to have issues with the callous disregard of workers safety. So this will have large political reprucutions.
So overall this is just not doable in that time