To give a little of context:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Paraguay#Independence
"The
porteños bungled their effort to extend control over Paraguay by choosing
José Espínola y Peña as their spokesman in Asunción. Espínola was "perhaps the most hated Paraguayan of his era," in the words of historian
John Hoyt Williams. Espínola's reception in Asunción was less than cordial, partly because he was closely linked to rapacious policies of the ex-governor,
Lázaro de Rivera, who had arbitrarily shot hundreds of his citizens until he was forced from office in 1805. Barely escaping a term of exile in Paraguay's far north, Espínola fled back to Buenos Aires and lied about the extent of
porteño support in Paraguay, causing the Buenos Aires
cabildo to make an equally disastrous move. In a bid to settle the issue by force, the
cabildo sent 1,100 troops under General
Manuel Belgrano to subdue Asunción. Paraguayan troops soundly thrashed the
porteños at
Paraguarí and
Tacuarí. Officers from both armies, however, fraternized openly during the campaign. From these contacts the Paraguayans came to realize that Spanish dominance in South America was coming to an end, and that they, and not the Spaniards, held the real power.
If the Espínola and Belgrano affairs served to whet nationalist passions in Paraguay, the Paraguayan royalists' ill-conceived actions that followed inflamed them. Believing that the Paraguayan officers who had whipped the
porteños posed a direct threat to his rule, Governor
Bernardo de Velasco dispersed and disarmed the forces under his command and sent most of the soldiers home without paying them for their eight months of service. Velasco previously had lost face when he fled the battlefield at Paraguarí, thinking Belgrano would win. Discontent spread, and the last straw was the request by the Asunción
cabildo for Portuguese military support against Belgrano's forces, who were encamped just over the border in present-day Argentina. Far from bolstering the
cabildo's position, this move instantly ignited an uprising and the overthrow of Spanish authority in Paraguay on May 14 and 15, 1811. Independence was declared on May 17."
Now, how could Belgrano have defeated the Paraguayan royalists? How this victory would have influenced the regional politics? Could we see Paraguay falling into Buenos Aires sphere and becoming an Argentine province?