Belgrano defeats the Paraguayan royalists = Paraguay is united with Argentina?

To give a little of context: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Paraguay#Independence

"The porteños bungled their effort to extend control over Paraguay by choosing José Espínola y Peña as their spokesman in Asunción. Espínola was "perhaps the most hated Paraguayan of his era," in the words of historian John Hoyt Williams. Espínola's reception in Asunción was less than cordial, partly because he was closely linked to rapacious policies of the ex-governor, Lázaro de Rivera, who had arbitrarily shot hundreds of his citizens until he was forced from office in 1805. Barely escaping a term of exile in Paraguay's far north, Espínola fled back to Buenos Aires and lied about the extent of porteño support in Paraguay, causing the Buenos Aires cabildo to make an equally disastrous move. In a bid to settle the issue by force, the cabildo sent 1,100 troops under General Manuel Belgrano to subdue Asunción. Paraguayan troops soundly thrashed the porteños at Paraguarí and Tacuarí. Officers from both armies, however, fraternized openly during the campaign. From these contacts the Paraguayans came to realize that Spanish dominance in South America was coming to an end, and that they, and not the Spaniards, held the real power.
If the Espínola and Belgrano affairs served to whet nationalist passions in Paraguay, the Paraguayan royalists' ill-conceived actions that followed inflamed them. Believing that the Paraguayan officers who had whipped the porteños posed a direct threat to his rule, Governor Bernardo de Velasco dispersed and disarmed the forces under his command and sent most of the soldiers home without paying them for their eight months of service. Velasco previously had lost face when he fled the battlefield at Paraguarí, thinking Belgrano would win. Discontent spread, and the last straw was the request by the Asunción cabildo for Portuguese military support against Belgrano's forces, who were encamped just over the border in present-day Argentina. Far from bolstering the cabildo's position, this move instantly ignited an uprising and the overthrow of Spanish authority in Paraguay on May 14 and 15, 1811. Independence was declared on May 17."

Now, how could Belgrano have defeated the Paraguayan royalists? How this victory would have influenced the regional politics? Could we see Paraguay falling into Buenos Aires sphere and becoming an Argentine province?
 
Like you said he should not have sent Espinola who was very unpopular. He should have sent someone the Paraguayans trusted more. This in itself could have helped Argentina defeat the Paraguayan royalists. Also, sending more troops could not have hurt.

A Paraguay part of Argentina means no future buffer zone between Argentina and Brazil. There then could have been more armed military clashes between them. Once thing is for sure there would be no War of the Triple Alliance.

In answering your last question, I think it would have been difficult for Argentina to hold on to Paraguay because it is a different culture. Only way would be if Paraguay had much autonomy inside of Argentina.

Chances are with Paraguay part of Argentina that Bolivia today would not be in control of parts of eastern and southeastern Bolivia.
 

maverick

Banned
In his somewhat distinguished 10 year military career, General Belgrano fought 8 battles, of which he won four and lost four. He was otherwise a lawyer.

Getting rid of Espinola is a good way to cement Argentinean control over Paraguay.

Sending someone other than Belgrano to Paraguay, and by that I mean pretty much anybody with real Military experience, would have probably helped in many ways...
 
A Paraguay part of Argentina means no future buffer zone between Argentina and Brazil. There then could have been more armed military clashes between them. Once thing is for sure there would be no War of the Triple Alliance.

Yes, the only way to keep Paraguay in is if federalism had been adopted from the start, as Artigas (the Uruguayan leader) wanted. However, many in Buenos Aires favoured centralism back then (1810). Liberals (like Moreno) did it because they were fascinated by the French republican ideas. Conservatives (like Saavedra) did it because they thought that without a monarch and/or a strong centralist government the country would split appart and fall into anarchy. There were also economic interests at stake: Buenos Aires was practically the only port, and collected most of the revenues charging exports and imports of products then went in and out of the whole country. Porteños, naturally, had incentives to keep things that way.

That's why I think that a radical change in the ideas on how to organize the country that predominated in the minds of Buenos Aires's leadership would be needed in order to keep Paraguay in. It might not have been to hard to get Paraguay if the Paraguayan rebel and aid porteños. But in order to keep it, Buenos Aires would have needed to grant them a great deal of autonomy. And seen how did relations between Buenos Aires and "Uruguay" went after 1810:rolleyes:... I think that would be hard to achieve...
 
Considering what "Argentina" was during that time period, essentially a very loose confederation of autonomous provinces, Paraguay would be no different as long as the military expedition is more successful (so that they recognize Buenos Aires' de jure suzerainty), or if Paraguay doesn't declare independence at all (maybe by not having the governor request Portuguese aid). With this, Paraguay would pretty much be in Buenos Aires' sphere of influence, and as the confederation consolidates, they would probably become a big part of it (and, most likely, Asuncion would become the most important city of the north-east).

As for the cultural differences, the Guarani population aside, Paraguay wasn't too different from Corrientes for example.
 
Considering what "Argentina" was during that time period, essentially a very loose confederation of autonomous provinces, Paraguay would be no different as long as the military expedition is more successful (so that they recognize Buenos Aires' de jure suzerainty), or if Paraguay doesn't declare independence at all (maybe by not having the governor request Portuguese aid). With this, Paraguay would pretty much be in Buenos Aires' sphere of influence, and as the confederation consolidates, they would probably become a big part of it (and, most likely, Asuncion would become the most important city of the north-east).

As for the cultural differences, the Guarani population aside, Paraguay wasn't too different from Corrientes for example.

Exactly. And something else: Corrientes had many Guarany speakers back then. Guarany language only started to fade away in that province after the introduction of universal education for children in the 1860ies and 1870ies. Even by the begining of the past century there were Guarany-speaking minorities worth mentioning in that province.
 
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