Belgium allows Imperial German army through?

They'd have to be insane to try to establish naval bases in the English Channel, particularly as they'd be in gunnery range of England. I could well imagine the White Cliffs of Dover crowded with 15 and 18" guns.

The same would be true for those guns on the White Cliffs.
 
Not yet! German bases so close to british soil means a constant invasion threat.
To counter that british ships need to be closer, which means RN bases may come in range.
Not sure why everyone thinks that Belgium becomes either a member of the CP or a full on puppet of Imperial Germany just from allowing German troops to transit some of their troops across the SW corner of their territory in 1914

I mean, France can call that a casus belli, but then the French need to worry about what the British will do about a direct French counterattack on Belgium
 
Not sure why everyone thinks that Belgium becomes either a member of the CP or a full on puppet of Imperial Germany just from allowing German troops to transit some of their troops across the SW corner of their territory in 1914

A persistent German war aim was to avoid having other world powers raise punitive tariffs against them post-war, annexing Belgium would likely cause the British and French to cut Germany out of world markets so Germany would be unlikely to do it.
 
I was thinking post-war in a Central Powers victory scenario if the Belgians simply let the Germans go through in this scenario they would be 'rewarded' as a Berliner satellite. I doubt the Germans would try to build an active naval base at the occupied French coast during the war as it would be so close to the front.
 
I was thinking post-war in a Central Powers victory scenario if the Belgians simply let the Germans go through in this scenario they would be 'rewarded' as a Berliner satellite. I doubt the Germans would try to build an active naval base at the occupied French coast during the war as it would be so close to the front.
But unlike the 2nd War, Imperial Germany wasn't looking for more territory, and really didn't want any more French territory, let alone Belgium as a vassal.

The plan was a quick 1870s victory(yeah, that wasn't really quick, but..) over the French, they would sue for peace, break the alliance with Russia, and more indemnities.
Then the Germans could put the Russian in the place, and no more meddling in the Balkans. Again, they didn't want Polish territory. either.

That was the fever dream of August 1914.

It changed as millions died, but the desires of 1916 were not that of 1914
 
But unlike the 2nd War, Imperial Germany wasn't looking for more territory, and really didn't want any more French territory, let alone Belgium as a vassal.

The plan was a quick 1870s victory(yeah, that wasn't really quick, but..) over the French, they would sue for peace, break the alliance with Russia, and more indemnities.
Then the Germans could put the Russian in the place, and no more meddling in the Balkans. Again, they didn't want Polish territory. either.

That was the fever dream of August 1914.

It changed as millions died, but the desires of 1916 were not that of 1914
But I do think Berlin would see obvious benefits to Belgian expansion at French expense.
 
But I do think Berlin would see obvious benefits to Belgian expansion at French expense.
Belgium also had a balancing act. Taking French seaports, previous Flemish areas(but gone for 200 years, now French speaking and culture), make the Walloons to the south unhappy, and the other way around as well, as more French speakers overall to dilute the Dutch speakers in the North, who only recently gained rights.

Even gaining Dunkirk would be a stretch
 
OMG. Remember what those Belgians did to those poor Africans. Now the sneaky buggers have gone and abused their neutrality to stab the French.

One suspects there would be a price to accepting "payment" for letting the Germans through.
 
It's 1914, the British public doesn't give much of a damn about what foreigners do to natives in Africa. They're foreigners so don't know any better.

I was under the impression that the British public was somewhat interested as to the issue of stopping the slave trade a few decades earlier, for example.
 
Not correct. Britain was a guarantor of the neutrality and inviolability of Belgian territory’ irrespective whether the Belgians themselves respected the Treaty of London...

This.

If Belgium sides with Germany - which is what it would be doing by letting German troops through, see Hague V 1907 art. 5 - then both Belgium and Germany have violated the London Treaty. If a violation of the London Treaty is a casus belli for Britain in OTL, then a double violation of it also is, in this TL too.

Sure, it's harder to sell the public. Much less of a problem in 1914 than today. The poor backstabbed sods would just be the French, with the accomplicity of the sly Belgians. The poor mistreated civilians would be French, etc. The war might be less popular, still it has to be waged.

This would be done for the sound geostrategic reasons for which London signed the London Treaty in the first place. Better to have the closest continental coasts in possession of small, neutral countries, and better to have them fragmented among several countries, than having them in possession of one, big, hegemonic continental power - obviously. The side disturbing that arrangement clearly intends to become that one big hegemonic continental power, and needs to be intervened against, as per usual century-old British policy.

Note the power trying this also has engaged in a naval escalation, challeging the Royal Navy's dominance on the oceans. So, a two out of two on the London red flag scale. It's war.
 

DougM

Donor
Yes technically Belgium probably would be in violation. But the average a Englishmen won’t care. And by the time you can make him understand why this is very bad for Great Britain it is to late. Germany has already pushed France way back.
At that point Great Britain is not likely to enter the war as it looks very bad for France and Britain would not want to join what looks to be a losing side. It would do better to sit back and try and negotiate the peace treaty in such a way as to better protect Britain.

Also without the Propaganda of Belgium the US is much less inclined to view the Hun as evil and thus may well insist on the neutrality of the seas that in original timeline Britain abused a heck of a lot more then Germany

And if Belgium was thinking rationally from a military perspective they never had a chance of stopping Germany without letting France or England in to help them and all that would do is mean that Belgium is the battlefield. So it is not illogical for Belgium to let Germany through instead of basically committing suicide in order to slow Germany and help France and arguably Britain.

Or if you want a really strange POD. Great Britain’s spy’s inform them the Belgium is negotiating with Germany to let them through (true or not) and Great Britain decides to commit a “Friendly “ occupation of the ports. Belgium’s Government or at least the locals decide to take this badly and start shooting at British troops it escalates out of control and pretty soon Germany comes to Belgium’s aid in resisting those Evil British.
Flip flops the whole thing and now the Propaganda is on Germany’s side
 
Yes technically Belgium probably would be in violation. But the average a Englishmen won’t care.

Again, in 1914 the average PM needs to explain himself to the average Englishman much less than today. He has to explain himself to the average MPs - who are much less in thrall to opinion polls than today and who know geopolitics.

As to the man in the street, I think he did not like Germany at all, especially between 1908 and 1912. That's because of the naval arms race has gone beyond the awareness of just a few military experts, admirals and statesmen, and because of the Kaiser's mightily inappropriate interview in 1908.

Churchill said:
The purposes of British naval power are essentially defensive. We have no thoughts, and we have never had any thoughts of aggression, and we attribute no such thoughts to other great Powers. There is, however, this difference between the British naval power and the naval power of the great and friendly Empire - and I trust it may long remain the great and friendly Empire - of Germany. The British Navy is to us a necessity and, from some points of view, the German Navy is to them more in the nature of a luxury. Our naval power involves British existence. It is existence to us; it is expansion to them. We cannot menace the peace of a single Continental hamlet, no matter how great and supreme our Navy may become. But, on the other hand, the whole fortunes of our race and Empire, the whole treasure accumulated during so many centuries of sacrifice and achievement, would perish and be swept utterly away if our naval supremacy were to be impaired.
 
The biggest thing is that while UK is still likely to join you are also likely to see a delay on doing so compared to OTL and at this point in the war small delays or lack of can make a big difference on how things turn out.
 
But unlike the 2nd War, Imperial Germany wasn't looking for more territory, and really didn't want any more French territory, let alone Belgium as a vassal.

The plan was a quick 1870s victory(yeah, that wasn't really quick, but..) over the French, they would sue for peace, break the alliance with Russia, and more indemnities.
Then the Germans could put the Russian in the place, and no more meddling in the Balkans. Again, they didn't want Polish territory. either.

That was the fever dream of August 1914.

It changed as millions died, but the desires of 1916 were not that of 1914

Please note the German Septemberprogramm of 09 September 1914. A partial list of German demands as found on Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Septemberprogramm):

"France should cede some northern territory, such as the iron-ore mines at Briey and a coastal strip running from Dunkirk to Boulogne-sur-Mer, to Belgium or Germany."
"Belgium should be annexed to Germany or, preferably, become a 'vassal state', which should cede eastern parts and possibly Antwerp to Germany and give Germany military and naval bases."
"Luxembourg should become a member state of the German Empire."

They weren't looking for territory on the scale of World War II in 1914, especially as Hitler actually planned to, 'reduce France to her borders at the time of the early Holy Roman Empire' by late 1940, apparently complete with resurrected Lotharingia and/or perhaps even a dedicated satellite Lorraine.
 
1920 France after Congress of Brussels.jpg


My thoughts on a late 1914/early 1915 CP victory in the West. Belgium (Orange) will fracture with Flanders joining the Netherlands and newly independent Walloonia taking Nord and Pas-de-Calais giving Berlin direct access to her new sea bases in Dunquerque and Calais. More than the 15cm and later 18cm and 20cm naval cannonry stationed here, it is the launch of a hydrodynamic dual-hulled steam-turbine submarine cruiser as the culmination of Projekt 50 which will change the world in 1925. Germany (Red) takes Belfort along with Meuse, Vosges, and Meurthe -et- Moselle to complete the seizure of Lorraine along with Alsace (Black) and deprive France of significant industrial resources, Italy (Green) sees Paris in serious jeopardy of falling via a few lucky guesses and joins the Central Powers, taking Corsica, Savoy, and Alpes-Maritimes. Brittany, with its unique heritage and language, is given a "Special Status" designation though almost no one is sure what this is actually supposed to mean and only fuels the fires of Bretonian nationalism as intended, the presumed-low Basque population of the Pyrenees-Atlantiques combined with the ire it would draw from Spain prevent it from being designated similarly. Franche-Comte and Provence / Blue Coast are deemed occupational areas until a plebiscite is held (Both will rejoin France, though Provence only does so with 58% of the vote with over 30% supporting independence and 10% voting to join Italy; Franche-Comte rejoins with 3:1 rejoin versus independence with the number of votes to join Germany at less than 600).
 
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