Belgium allows Imperial German army through?

Would the Germans still win though? Even if this lucky break gave them Paris would the French really collapse as is often suggested?
Collapse because they are Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys with no spine? No. Morale was high and they'll still want to fight after Paris and probably are going to until mid 1915 or so.

Their war effort collapsing, because France lost a big centre of industry, the lynchpin on their rail network, their largest remaining coal mine compared to OTL, channel ports that in OTL were used to bring stuff from Britain, credit being more difficult to acquire on an international financial market that expects Germany to win within the year, etc. Now that's another matter.
 
While the invasion of Belgium was Britain's casus belli it didn't have an impact on their military actions once the did declare war. As per pre-war staff talks the BEF deployed to France and fought alongside the French and withdrew into France under German pressure. About the only things Britain had to do with Belgium in the early battles was advance from Mauberge to Mons for the battle on 23 August and send the Royal Marine Brigade to Ostend on August 27-30. Belgium is only a PR excuse for Britain to do other things.

On another subject, in Russia and Ukraine in 1918 the Germans used trains in their advance, send troops forward on trains to occupy unoccupied stations. Would this be possible in Belgium, perhaps later arriving Corps detraining in Belgium rather than Germany?
 
Collapse because they are Cheese Eating Surrender Monkeys with no spine? No. Morale was high and they'll still want to fight after Paris and probably are going to until mid 1915 or so.

Their war effort collapsing, because France lost a big centre of industry, the lynchpin on their rail network, their largest remaining coal mine compared to OTL, channel ports that in OTL were used to bring stuff from Britain, credit being more difficult to acquire on an international financial market that expects Germany to win within the year, etc. Now that's another matter.

IIRC the Schlieffen Plan didn't envisage French surrender in 6 weeks, it envisaged enough success in the field to send 3 of 7 field armies to East Prussia to fight the Russians; 4 field armies would remain in France to continue the fight or occupy as needed.
 
It is simply not possible for Belgium to let Germany pass without a fight. You would need a pod around the formation of the country.
 
Sir Edward Grey had masterminded Asquith's leadership campaign and Asquith both trusted and owed him. However it is not entirely clear how much Grey had cleared with Asquith, never mind the rest of the Cabinet. As the French asked Grey to honour commitments they thought they had from the British government, and not the Foreign Secretary playing a lone hand, Grey's position would have become untenable. He didn't want to be PM himself and attached great importance to having an Imperial Liberal as PM so I think that he would have taken all the blame on himself and not dragged Asquith down with him. But Blair survived the fall of Mandelson and Thatcher the death of Airey Neave, no reason to suppose Asquith wouldn't have survived the fall of Grey.
Maby, gust based on my read of the situation the cabnit was in (because of the home rule issues in Ireland) that I have a hard time seeing that cabnit surviving, or really the liberal government in general.
 
Maby, gust based on my read of the situation the cabnit was in (because of the home rule issues in Ireland) that I have a hard time seeing that cabnit surviving, or really the liberal government in general.
As long as they had the IPP's support they had a safe majority. Facing down the Ulster Unionists would have been unpopular at home though and I think they would have lost the 1917 election
 

BooNZ

Banned
Sir Edward Grey had masterminded Asquith's leadership campaign and Asquith both trusted and owed him. However it is not entirely clear how much Grey had cleared with Asquith, never mind the rest of the Cabinet. As the French asked Grey to honour commitments they thought they had from the British government, and not the Foreign Secretary playing a lone hand, Grey's position would have become untenable. He didn't want to be PM himself and attached great importance to having an Imperial Liberal as PM so I think that he would have taken all the blame on himself and not dragged Asquith down with him. But Blair survived the fall of Mandelson and Thatcher the death of Airey Neave, no reason to suppose Asquith wouldn't have survived the fall of Grey.
My understanding is the French were very aware the personal commitments by Grey did not bind the British government.
It is simply not possible for Belgium to let Germany pass without a fight. You would need a pod around the formation of the country.
From the information we have available, the above appears to be a reasonable assumption, except:

The British had plans to 'peacefully' occupy Belgium ports etc and explicitly contemplated during the July crisis the Belgians not opposing a German invasion of Belgium. The German prewar wargames had featured a belligerent Belgium actually joining the Entente and conversely in 1914 the Germans were hopeful (although not optimistic) the Belgians would stand aside in the face of a German invasion. The Belgians themselves alternated between plans to defend the Belgium Ardennes on diplomatic principle and the alternative of military pragmatism.

In summary, the OTL Germans of 1914 had no confidence in Belgium neutrality, the OTL Entente of 1914 had no confidence in Belgium neutrality and OTL the Belgians of 1914 prioritised pragmatism ahead of diplomatic neutrality in deciding not to actively defend the Belgium Ardennes. Either Belgium was deeply misunderstood by everyone, or maybe Belgium's neutrality was not necessarily set in stone?
 
As a guess, German forces reach Paris in early September/late August as without British reinforcements the French are unable to hold. Much of the French Army near the German border begins to withdraw in an attempt both to avoid encirclement and help defend the capital but this only exacerbates an already terrible situation. Italy sees the fall of Paris coming and declares war in exchange for everything east of the Rhone river save Lyon, Avignon, and Marseilles with a 10-mile radius around the first two and a land connection from the latter to the rest of France, Tunisia, Corsica, Kerguelen, Djibouti, and maybe French Guiana. Austrian troops are then rerouted almost entirely to the Russian front as are large numbers of German troops.

With a cease-fire in late 1915/early 1916 and a 'Treaty of Chernowitz' or equivalent, Germany still incorporates Luxembourg directly, makes a satellite out of Belgium and Poland, almost certainly takes Belfort and at least Murelle et Mosse (if not the Meuse and Vosges to complete a takeover of Lorraine). Until the ores of the Pyrennes or its colonies can be exploted this leaves France in a precarious position as she has few metal resources left - a hybrid Green/Accion Francais movement where recycling is imperative for national security (and the environment!) could emerge as a result.

Russia is still 'beaten' with a much less harsh peace in 1916 with the loss of Poland, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, perhaps Lithuania, perhaps the western Ukraine, and *maybe* guarantees for Finland and the Alash/Cossacks though I doubt either get independence. Far fewer people die, Ottomans really win as do the Bulgarians and Germans, and more likely than not the AH devolves into either a federation of a loose ecomonic pact with maybe some sort of federal army and common currency. Berlin becomes the new superpower and another war will happen but without the memory of such a terrible conflict the next one is likely far worse.
 
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British still go to war even if Germany do not march though Belgium with permission.
British would have found some reason to fight or just made one up.
The idea of Germany doing to France what Prussia did and the same to Russia and leaving the Germany dominating Central Europe militarial and economical is not something the British will allow.
If the British stayed out of the war the big change would be no hunger blockade of Germany.
The British are in the Business of world domination and do not want any competition from a united Europe under one major power.
This time it is the Germans, in the past it was the French,Spanish and later the Russians.
 
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BooNZ

Banned
British still go to war even if Germany do not march though Belgium with permission.

British would have found some reason to fight or just made one up.
In the absence of compelling evidence, it is intriguing how often Yes Minister is cited/ quoted as proof of an inevitable British WW1 intervention in all conceivable circumstances. In the scenario provided it is entirely possible/ probable, but the British decision would hinge on the perceived threat of German control of the channel ports, not some intergenerational geopolitical British hive mind - IMHO.
 
Maybe something like this (from Pinterest):

91a689d31eff01238f865027368f300a.jpg
 
Germany ......makes a satellite out of Belgium

This danger alone would make it wiser for Belgium to resist any German incursion on its territory. The danger of this happening was one of the reasons for the Dutch not to join Germany BTW.
 
I actually think Belgium would be handsomely rewarded with parts of northern France traditionally associated with the Low Countries, like Picardy and Artois if allowing German passage is what enables a Central Powers victory.
 
I actually think Belgium would be handsomely rewarded with parts of northern France traditionally associated with the Low Countries, like Picardy and Artois if allowing German passage is what enables a Central Powers victory.

Nord and Pais de Calais are your two most likely departments for transfer, I could actually see the Central Powers doing this with a Belgian satellite to establish their own naval bases. The map would be akin to the WWII military district of Belgium and Northern France. It would also give a French-speaking port or two to Wallonia if Central Powers Berlin ever separated it from Flanders.
 
Nord and Pais de Calais are your two most likely departments for transfer, I could actually see the Central Powers doing this with a Belgian satellite to establish their own naval bases. The map would be akin to the WWII military district of Belgium and Northern France. It would also give a French-speaking port or two to Wallonia if Central Powers Berlin ever separated it from Flanders.
They'd have to be insane to try to establish naval bases in the English Channel, particularly as they'd be in gunnery range of England. I could well imagine the White Cliffs of Dover crowded with 15 and 18" guns.
 
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