What if the neo-Communist Lukashenko lost the elections? Will this mean that Belarus will join NATO and EU or somewhat?
Belarus would probably have joined NATO. Not sure they would've joined the EU, then again. I'm not an expert really on Belarus.What if the neo-Communist Lukashenko lost the elections? Will this mean that Belarus will join NATO and EU or somewhat?
Belarus would probably be very similar to Ukraine. It would be somewhat a working democracy, but one in constant danger of being subverted. There would be a Western oriented democratic party pushing for entry into the EU, and a Russian oriented party more prone to authoritarian tendencies.
I very much doubt Belarus would be in NATO or apply to NATO. Russia would see a Belarus desire to be in NATO with the same vehement hatred and paranoia as to Ukraine's bid under Yuschenko. So any Belarus bid would bring in some form of hostile Russian reaction in terms of economic and diplomatic suasion.
To be honest, if Lukashenko is not in power, I think the most likely scenario is for another Russian-oriented authoritarian to take power and act very similarly. If we want a more democratic Belarus, there is a slight chance of that in which case we get the Ukraine scenario.
A corrupt pro-western sham democracy, instead of a corrupt pro-Russian one?
The independence of Belarus is a fluke to begin with. Its national identity is very tenuous to the degree that they’re basically are just Russians by another name. In fact I’d go so far as to say Lukashenko's power-hungry ways are the main reason that Belarus isn’t part of the Russian Federation.