Beiyang Domination of China

How could the Beiyang Army come to dominate all of China? I'm no expert on Chinese Warlord era history but I'm guessing it can happen in a TL where a). Yuan Shikai doesn't die in 1916 and lives much longer b). Yuan Shikai doesn't declare himself Emperor c). the BA doesn't split after Yuan's death and passes on to a single successor d). the Beiyang Army is reunited by one of the warlords after the split or e). a combination of any of the above or some other POD happens.

What I'd really like to see is a Southern Expedition where the Beiyang Army goes South to defeat the Kuomintang and gain complete control over China like what Chiang Kai-shek did in the Northern Expedition but again, I really don't know how such a thing could happen.
 

Hendryk

Banned
The problem is that, at the time of his death in 1916, Yuan had already lost control over his officers, so even if he did live longer, something like the Warlord Era would likely still take place. The POD would have to be between 1912 and 1913: you'd have to find a way to make Yuan handle his power grab more competently than in OTL, giving his presidency a clear direction and convincing both his officers and China's political elites at large that he knows what he's doing. But the problem with Yuan is that he was essentially a conniver who rose too high for his own good; I'm admittedly prejudiced (I did cause him to die 4 years ahead of schedule in my TL) but I don't think he had the potential to be more than a self-serving dictator, as opposed to an enlightened one like, say, Ataturk.

Incidentally, you may be interested in looking up "Towards the Republic".
 
The problem is that, at the time of his death in 1916, Yuan had already lost control over his officers, so even if he did live longer, something like the Warlord Era would likely still take place. The POD would have to be between 1912 and 1913: you'd have to find a way to make Yuan handle his power grab more competently than in OTL, giving his presidency a clear direction and convincing both his officers and China's political elites at large that he knows what he's doing. But the problem with Yuan is that he was essentially a conniver who rose too high for his own good; I'm admittedly prejudiced (I did cause him to die 4 years ahead of schedule in my TL) but I don't think he had the potential to be more than a self-serving dictator, as opposed to an enlightened one like, say, Ataturk.

Incidentally, you may be interested in looking up "Towards the Republic".

Say, he manages to hold on to power without losing credibility in the eyes of his officers and the political elites (he doesn't declare himself Emperor, etc.) and eventually takes control of all of China, taking the South from the Kuomintang and other factions, how would China develop under his rule? And how would it deal with the Japanese?
 
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