Beer Hall Putsch: Death of Adolf Hitler and the rise of the Kaiser

The 1928 federal elections saw considerable gains for the DNVP party. They were able to form a coalition of support from conservative, monarchists, nationalists and certian elements of the völkisch movement. These gains were at the cost of the NSFP and other right win parties. The lack of strong leadership from the NSFP beleaguered the party and made it hard for them to make gains in the Reichstag. With them receiving only 2.6% of the vote and 12 seats in the Reichstag.

The DNVP seemed to have the support of the Reichspräsident, as the had similar views on monarchy and the government. While Hindenburg took his oath to the Republic seriously, he did nothing to hinder the growth of monarchism and the DNVP in Germany. There are whispers that Hinderburg will not seek reelection for Reichspräsident and wants to retire. Even more interesting is the former Crown Prince, Wilhelm, might be interested in the job.

Hans Muller became the chancellor of Germany in a coalition government.

In summary, the DNVP is trying to consolidate its base and the conservative movement as a whole in Germany. Presenting it self as the only true and worthy conservative, and nationalist party in Germany.

german election.PNG
 
I agree on principle with your idea of how a monarchist restoration would occur in Weimar Germany: the Kronprinz running for the Reich Presidency, Hindenburg stepping aside, and the Nationalists taking the place of the OTL National Socialists. I've spoken of it in the past. In some of the specifics, though, I think you need to be more careful.

You have the communists gain exactly the same number of votes as they did in OTL, to the nearest vote; this sounds unlikely given the butterfly effect alone, even if you ignore the crossover between the far left and the far right in terms of their supporters (I would expect several people who in OTL supported the National Socialists to support the KPD). Moreover, this was not a good election for the DNVP in OTL. You have them consolidating the right-wing vote behind them to a great extent, and that's fair enough, but I don't think that would be an instant process and I don't think it would overcome the fact that, in TTL, there isn't anything to prevent the OTL huge fall in support for the far right from the previous election to this one, due to the success of the political centre; note that this election took place before the Wall Street Crash. Even if the Nationalists consolidated much of the ultranationalist vote behind them, to the extent that they won every single OTL National Socialist vote (which is unlikely because some would go to the far left instead, as the Nationalists struck a less populist tone than the National Socialists, and others would go to various minor far-right parties), they would be on 16.8%, not 22.6%. Even if you're being very generous to the speed with which the Nationalists consolidated the far-right vote behind their party and to Hugenberg's efficacy as a political leader, I'd expect a score about 19% at most, and more likely 16-18%. It's only after the Wall Street Crash that there would be fertile ground for the far right to grow truly strong.
 
I agree on principle with your idea of how a monarchist restoration would occur in Weimar Germany: the Kronprinz running for the Reich Presidency, Hindenburg stepping aside, and the Nationalists taking the place of the OTL National Socialists. I've spoken of it in the past. In some of the specifics, though, I think you need to be more careful.

You have the communists gain exactly the same number of votes as they did in OTL, to the nearest vote; this sounds unlikely given the butterfly effect alone, even if you ignore the crossover between the far left and the far right in terms of their supporters (I would expect several people who in OTL supported the National Socialists to support the KPD). Moreover, this was not a good election for the DNVP in OTL. You have them consolidating the right-wing vote behind them to a great extent, and that's fair enough, but I don't think that would be an instant process and I don't think it would overcome the fact that, in TTL, there isn't anything to prevent the OTL huge fall in support for the far right from the previous election to this one, due to the success of the political centre; note that this election took place before the Wall Street Crash. Even if the Nationalists consolidated much of the ultranationalist vote behind them, to the extent that they won every single OTL National Socialist vote (which is unlikely because some would go to the far left instead, as the Nationalists struck a less populist tone than the National Socialists, and others would go to various minor far-right parties), they would be on 16.8%, not 22.6%. Even if you're being very generous to the speed with which the Nationalists consolidated the far-right vote behind their party and to Hugenberg's efficacy as a political leader, I'd expect a score about 19% at most, and more likely 16-18%. It's only after the Wall Street Crash that there would be fertile ground for the far right to grow truly strong.
You make very good points here, to truth be told I left the Communists the same because it was easier for me, but I suppose that I could change the results to be more accurate.
 
The 1930 Federal Election so huge gains for the DNVP, achieving 155 seats and 32.3% of the popular vote. This was mainly due to the collapse of the SPD and the Centre party. The collapse of the SPD can be attrubited to the rise of the KPD (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands). The KPD alarmed many conservatives and moderates and lead them to vote reactionary.

The 1930 election also saw the return of the NSFP under the new leadership of General Erich Ludendorff. Under Ludendorff the NSFP gained 31 seats in the Reichstag and received 11.3 of the popular vote. This was a major swing from 12 seats and 2.6% of the last election. The NSFP and other conservative, monarchist, reactionary and Volkisch parties formed a coalition government with DNVP named the Harzburg Front. The Stahlhelm would serve as the paramilitary wing of the Harzburg Front. This new government saw DNVP leader Alfred Hugenberg become the Reichskanzler. At least for the moment, the DNVP seemed to hold a grip on the Reichstag and Germany.

The upcoming Presidential election of 1932 should prove interesting with DNVP party member, and former Crown Prince of Germany, Wilhelm stating that he would run as the Right Wing candidate. Even more interesting is that current Reichspräsident, Paul von Hindenburg, stating that he had no intention of running again and it seemed he supported the candidacy of Crown Prince Wilhelm.

Up next will be the 1932 Presidential election

*note; the NSDAP would remain banned in this timeline

german election.PNG
 
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Whenever I ponder a restoration I assume the push back and compromise is to respect the abdication per Versailles and restore one of the two sons depending on if you butterfly the death of the younger Wilhelm. And as I ponder the parties it seems the right is always more fractured than the left, SPD seems always in a strong one-quarter to one-third, the KPD and DDP seem to hold the rest with overlap by Zentrum to the extent you assume them spanning center versus being centre-right. The DDP and Zentrum could form a weak coalition over most elections since I see the right having a hard time settling ideological differences until a CDU style umbrella forms. So I get a restoration but tempered by both liberal and SPD demands for limits and stronger democracy overall. If the monarchist faction can be convinced to accept then you get the 1848 revolution in a sense.
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
The 1930 Federal Election so huge gains for the DNVP, achieving 155 seats and 32.3% of the popular vote. This was mainly due to the collapse of the SPD and the Centre party. The collapse of the SPD can be attrubited to the rise of the KPD (Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands). The KPD alarmed many conservatives and moderates and lead them to vote reactionary.

The 1930 election also saw the return of the NSFP under the new leadership of General Erich Ludendorff. Under Ludendorff the NSFP gained 31 seats in the Reichstag and received 11.3 of the popular vote. This was a major swing from 12 seats and 2.6% of the last election. The NSFP and other conservative, monarchist, reactionary and Volkisch parties formed a coalition government with DNVP named the Harzburg Front. The Stahlhelm would serve as the paramilitary wing of the Harzburg Front. This new government saw DNVP leader Alfred Hugenberg become the Reichskanzler. At least for the moment, the DNVP seemed to hold a grip on the Reichstag and Germany.

The upcoming Presidential election of 1932 should prove interesting with DNVP party member, and former Crown Prince of Germany, Wilhelm stating that he would run as the Right Wing candidate. Even more interesting is that current Reichspräsident, Paul von Hindenburg, stating that he had no intention of running again and it seemed he supported the candidacy of Crown Prince Wilhelm.

Up next will be the 1932 Presidential election

*note; the NSDAP would remain banned in this timeline

View attachment 284134




Tiny mistake: wrong triangle for the DNVP swing

Keep it up
 
The 1932 elections would play a pivotal role in the future of Germany. The current President was an aging a haggard Paul von Hindenburg. While a monarchist he took his oath to the Republic seriously and did not seek to reestablish the Kaiser. These last several years had been hard on Hindenburg and he clearly stated that he would not run for relection and that he would retire of politics entirely.

When asked by the press, "Which candidate do you favor?". Hindenburg gave no clear answer but it was obvious who he supported. That person would be the former Crown Prince of Germany, Wilhelm. Wilhelm had expressed interested for running as early as 1928 and now was his best shot. The Harzburg front controlled the Reichstag, which consisted of monarchists, nationalists, conservatives, fascists and the Völkisch movement. The right wing coalition had support throughout most of Germany, especially among the countryside and industrialists. The only real opposition would be the democrats and the communists. The Harzburg front also controlled the largest Friekorps in Germany, which was the Stahlhelm Bund. The Stahlhelm's membership was around 800,000 and was larger than the Reichswehr.

When election time came it was clear who would win. With Hindenburg's blessing and the support of the Harzburg front, Wilhelm had a clear path for victory. His oppistion came from Liberal Democrats, anti-monarchists and the Communists. Even then they could not deny Wilhelm victory.

The running platform of Wilhelm's campaign was to hold a referendum on the return of the Kaiser and it this would be his first goal in office.

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Wilhelm inspecting the Stalhelm during the campaign.

german election.PNG
 

NoMommsen

Donor
I really appreciate your efforts, but ...

IMO you got the 1928 election wrong. It was OTL a damn big loss for the DNVP as well as every other 'right-wing' party and a much bigger win for the SPD than your calculus.

Why ?
The SPD was made responsible by a wide part of esp. the workers, white as well as blue collar, for the economical as well as social gains over the last four years. And economy, having something to eat, clothes, living space (it was a high time of public funded house building) was after the war-time and inflation period the THE number one issue for most of the voters.
The DNVP as well as every other 'right-wing' party had nothing ... better to offer on this side, appealing to the mass of voters.

From there onwards your 1930 election calculus is ... imperfect.
First : there was no "collapse of the SPD" and I also can't see how this could happen. Loosing votes, yes but "collapse" ? No. For that the party is too well organised since decades. It is virually the oldest organised political party (as we unsdestand it today) in Germany at all, since the days of Bismarck.
Second : 'Just' giving the OTL votes of the NSDAP mainly to the DNVP ... not without some substantial changes of the DNVP, esp. in their economical attitudes.
One BIG bonus of the NSDAP was its unclear, makeshift economical programm, promising everthing to almost everybody. Something the DNVP with its tight bounds to 'conservativ' money elites, the party was identified with in public opinion, couldn't do.
The other major reason for the rise of the NSDAP in OTL was their propaganda technique. Something the DNVP functionairies, still deeply rooted in the ways of the Kaiserreich, never anticipated, not even the media-magnat Hugenberg.



Without changes of the DNVP in programmatic and propaganda - as well as some personell maybe - I don't buy your DNVP becomming largest fraction of the Reichstag.

Some more gains of the KPD as OTL ... well, yes propable, mainly the 'nationalbolschewistic' remnants of the NSDAP, who would most likely not go with the now almost completly gaga Ludendorff and his weird anthroposophic/freemason-conspiracy theories. But I doubt the KPD would/could hit the 100 seat borderline. Not with some really catastrophic developments in the SPD (Otto Braun found guilty of procuring, Otto Wels dies of alcoholism and drug addicttion, party money spend on luxury travels and villas for party members, etc.).




EDIT :
How did Wilhelm get around the ukas of his father ?? In OTL he had neither the wits nor the balls to do so.
 
I really appreciate your efforts, but ...

IMO you got the 1928 election wrong. It was OTL a damn big loss for the DNVP as well as every other 'right-wing' party and a much bigger win for the SPD than your calculus.

Why ?
The SPD was made responsible by a wide part of esp. the workers, white as well as blue collar, for the economical as well as social gains over the last four years. And economy, having something to eat, clothes, living space (it was a high time of public funded house building) was after the war-time and inflation period the THE number one issue for most of the voters.
The DNVP as well as every other 'right-wing' party had nothing ... better to offer on this side, appealing to the mass of voters.

From there onwards your 1930 election calculus is ... imperfect.
First : there was no "collapse of the SPD" and I also can't see how this could happen. Loosing votes, yes but "collapse" ? No. For that the party is too well organised since decades. It is virually the oldest organised political party (as we unsdestand it today) in Germany at all, since the days of Bismarck.
Second : 'Just' giving the OTL votes of the NSDAP mainly to the DNVP ... not without some substantial changes of the DNVP, esp. in their economical attitudes.
One BIG bonus of the NSDAP was its unclear, makeshift economical programm, promising everthing to almost everybody. Something the DNVP with its tight bounds to 'conservativ' money elites, the party was identified with in public opinion, couldn't do.
The other major reason for the rise of the NSDAP in OTL was their propaganda technique. Something the DNVP functionairies, still deeply rooted in the ways of the Kaiserreich, never anticipated, not even the media-magnat Hugenberg.



Without changes of the DNVP in programmatic and propaganda - as well as some personell maybe - I don't buy your DNVP becomming largest fraction of the Reichstag.

Some more gains of the KPD as OTL ... well, yes propable, mainly the 'nationalbolschewistic' remnants of the NSDAP, who would most likely not go with the now almost completly gaga Ludendorff and his weird anthroposophic/freemason-conspiracy theories. But I doubt the KPD would/could hit the 100 seat borderline. Not with some really catastrophic developments in the SPD (Otto Braun found guilty of procuring, Otto Wels dies of alcoholism and drug addicttion, party money spend on luxury travels and villas for party members, etc.).




EDIT :
How did Wilhelm get around the ukas of his father ?? In OTL he had neither the wits nor the balls to do so.
Collapse was the wrong word to use, they just lost a lot of votes. For the 1928 election I reasoned that unlike Hitler who had to consolidate power within his party, the DNVP could just build upon previous gains and continue to consolidate their support among the right. That is perfectly plausible, perhaps unlikely but its what I wanted to happen.
 

Perkeo

Banned
I wouldn't get too ahead of yourself. War might be inevitable for Germany.

Why the heck is that? The TOV was dead as a doornail before Hitler came to power and the fear of loosing another war was no less common than the hope of winning one. So IMO even an ultrarightwing authoritarian regime will more likely than not keep the peace.
 
Why the heck is that? The TOV was dead as a doornail before Hitler came to power and the fear of loosing another war was no less common than the hope of winning one. So IMO even an ultrarightwing authoritarian regime will more likely than not keep the peace.
The Military will still want to rearm and many Germans felt like the hadn't truly lost the war. If war does happen it will not be the same as OTL but it will be similar in many ways. Truthfully I haven't thought that far ahead.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
Collapse was the wrong word to use, they just lost a lot of votes. For the 1928 election I reasoned that unlike Hitler who had to consolidate power within his party, the DNVP could just build upon previous gains and continue to consolidate their support among the right. That is perfectly plausible, perhaps unlikely but its what I wanted to happen.
Sry. M8 but wrong.

The 1928 election went ill for Hitlerr not because he had to 'consolidate' his power in the party. That was achieved completly at the Bamberg Conference February 1926 already. It went ill due to the wrong strategy aiming at urban workers (there SPD and to a lesser extent the KPD as SPD off-spring were 'unbeatable' deeprooted) and with too much antisemitism. The bad results in elections despite ever growing members was topic of a conference in late 1928 (can't find my reference right now) and was then changed accordingly, what led to the 1930 win.

And DNVP "... just build upon previous gains ..." completly ignores the social, economic and political developments since 1924 and their impact on the life, believes and behavior of voters. Given the OTL developments of the DNVP votes, your assumed gains are not only unlikely but very implausible ... without further reasons for it ... by some butterflies, how should describe.
 
Sry. M8 but wrong.

The 1928 election went ill for Hitlerr not because he had to 'consolidate' his power in the party. That was achieved completly at the Bamberg Conference February 1926 already. It went ill due to the wrong strategy aiming at urban workers (there SPD and to a lesser extent the KPD as SPD off-spring were 'unbeatable' deeprooted) and with too much antisemitism. The bad results in elections despite ever growing members was topic of a conference in late 1928 (can't find my reference right now) and was then changed accordingly, what led to the 1930 win.

And DNVP "... just build upon previous gains ..." completly ignores the social, economic and political developments since 1924 and their impact on the life, believes and behavior of voters. Given the OTL developments of the DNVP votes, your assumed gains are not only unlikely but very implausible ... without further reasons for it ... by some butterflies, how should describe.
Its what I want. Simple as that. I'm in waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay 2 deep 2 stop. Can't stop wont stop.
 
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