Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

Oh man, how many times do we have to go through this. Sealion is impossible, in fact none of the prerequisites you've set are. If you want a Sealion, you have to go way back, have the Germans win WW1 VERY decisively. I'm talking about the Western front being wrapped up by 1915 with Germans goosestepping in Paris and the BEF destroyed as a coherent fighting force. Maybe even throw in a miracle at ATL-Jutland and an even more spectacular Russian collapse. With no restrictions on naval expansion and a continued very militaristic outlook (possible military dictatorship coming to power postwar), the Germans build up the Kriegsmarine to be the real equal to the RN. Now just have an Alt-WW2 somehow with France being overrun again (or even be a German ally), and THEN you could possibly see an invasion of Britain.
 
You can't have a successful operation sealion, unless you get Germany to start rearming back in the 20s. It is not just a matter of equipment, it is as well a matter of developing tactics and doctrines.
As a guideline in order to invade Britain you need an overwhelming airforce.
This assumes numerous PODs on its own: you need Luftwaffe to be created much earlier , and no bias from incompetent air marshals and the experience in the Spanish civil war. In hindsight Germany should have skipped useless heavy fighters like the Bf110 and built more Bf-109, upgrading them to achieve greater range, more Fw-190, slightly less Ju-87 (you need them, but not so many of them as OTL), and still build more Ju-88 and earlier, without useless requirement for dive bombing, and numerous naval bombers to gut the royal navy if it approaches contested waters.
But especially you need a huge fleet of strategical bombers.
I can never insist enough on this point: history has proven twice that submarine blockades are totally useless: for as good as you can be, you can never really strangle a big nation to death with submarines, and any achivement will always be temporary. OTOH if you can bomb the hell out of britain there is simply no point in controlling the sea lanes, if you can' build anything because your industrial base is razed to the ground and burning. If you manage to bomb the aircraft plants, the naval shipyards, the refineries and the ports you can wreck aircraft production, naval shipbuilding, fuel refining, importation of goods respectively.
As a bonus the psychological effect of Portsmouth or dover or London itself burning in a sea of flames is much greater than that of the ennesimal freighter ship sinking in the midst of the Atlantic.
So, that is, in hindsight, the opportunity the Germans missed: the introduction of the airplane means you can bend an island nation to their knees even without having a strong navy, an unprecedented vulnerability for UK.
But then again, in order to have Luftwaffe rule the skies you need several conditions:
A) start experimenting and developing loooong before 1935
B) realize the importance of strategical and naval bombers
C)have someone capable in command
D) possibly have Britain suffer from victory malaise and think the navy is all they need to be secure, so not to effectively counter a German air force buildup greater and longer than OTL.
Points B and C are easily manageable without derailing into ASB territory
Point D is a stretch but feasible. After all OTL Luftwaffe had a large advantage in numbers at the outbreak of war, and the British did not seem too worried about the fact, only starting to truly ramp up production of planes when the Germans started appearing in the skies of britain. By that time in an ATL whet Germany owns a large bomber fleet and effective fighters, it is possible that there are no aircraft factories left to ramp up anything.
Point A is the real problem: in order for germany to start exploring planes so much earlier you need a different outcome to ww1, and who knows what's going to happen then.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Well, to be fair, I also mentioned a military dictatorship, so who knows :D
True. But odds are they retain the Kaiser as a figurehead, at least. There's actually a series of novels that something like that happens. Set in 2012, an ultra-nationalist coup takes place in Germany and restores the Kaiser as a figurehead. Pretty good read actually. Pure fiction, but good
 
I can never insist enough on this point: history has proven twice that submarine blockades are totally useless: for as good as you can be, you can never really strangle a big nation to death with submarines,

"Cough", the Japanese were done in late 1944 and it was largely the Silent Service that did them in. That is, even if Olympic and Coronet were called off and the atomic bombs were not used, the Japanese would face mass starvation and the effects of a naval siege because they had no merchant fleet and no way to import food and fuel. They muddled through the winter of 44/45, but the projected deaths for 45/46 were between 5 and 7 million from famine, exposure and disease.

The bombing just hurried things along. At some point, thereafter, the Americans would have been approached with a plea for mercy. Fortunately, it never came to that horrible conclusion.
 
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"Cough", the Japanese were done in late 1944 and it was largely the Silent Service that did them in. That is, even if Olympic and Coronet were called off and the atomic bombs were not used, the Japanese would face mass starvation and the effects of a naval siege because they had no merchant fleet and no way to import food and fuel. They muddled through the winter of 44/45, but the projected deaths for 45/46 were between 5 and 7 million from famine, exposure and disease.

The bombing just hurried things along. At some point, thereafter, the Americans would have been approached with a plea for mercy. Fortunately, it never came to that horrible conclusion.

Japan was a nation with a limited industrial base, facing the greatest indutrial nation of all time, capable of building subs at the rate other nations could build build pastries; by the way, i totally disagree to to fact that Japan was starved to capitulation by submarine warfare; extensive submarine warfare against japan was only possible late in the war, when allied bases were close enough to japanese maion lines of sea shipping. In order to achieve this a lenghty camapign across the pacific was necessary; furthermore I am of the opinion that the bombing campaign was far more important; remove that and the campaign across pacific and it would have takes years to wear down Japan
 

hipper

Banned
You can't have a successful operation sealion, unless you get Germany to start rearming back in the 20s. It is not just a matter of equipment, it is as well a matter of developing tactics and doctrines.
As a guideline in order to invade Britain you need an overwhelming airforce.
This assumes numerous PODs on its own: you need Luftwaffe to be created much earlier , and no bias from incompetent air marshals and the experience in the Spanish civil war. In hindsight Germany should have skipped useless heavy fighters like the Bf110 and built more Bf-109, upgrading them to achieve greater range, more Fw-190, slightly less Ju-87 (you need them, but not so many of them as OTL), and still build more Ju-88 and earlier, without useless requirement for dive bombing, and numerous naval bombers to gut the royal navy if it approaches contested waters.
But especially you need a huge fleet of strategical bombers.
I can never insist enough on this point: history has proven twice that submarine blockades are totally useless: for as good as you can be, you can never really strangle a big nation to death with submarines, and any achivement will always be temporary. OTOH if you can bomb the hell out of britain there is simply no point in controlling the sea lanes, if you can' build anything because your industrial base is razed to the ground and burning. If you manage to bomb the aircraft plants, the naval shipyards, the refineries and the ports you can wreck aircraft production, naval shipbuilding, fuel refining, importation of goods respectively.
As a bonus the psychological effect of Portsmouth or dover or London itself burning in a sea of flames is much greater than that of the ennesimal freighter ship sinking in the midst of the Atlantic.
So, that is, in hindsight, the opportunity the Germans missed: the introduction of the airplane means you can bend an island nation to their knees even without having a strong navy, an unprecedented vulnerability for UK.
But then again, in order to have Luftwaffe rule the skies you need several conditions:
A) start experimenting and developing loooong before 1935
B) realize the importance of strategical and naval bombers
C)have someone capable in command
D) possibly have Britain suffer from victory malaise and think the navy is all they need to be secure, so not to effectively counter a German air force buildup greater and longer than OTL.
Points B and C are easily manageable without derailing into ASB territory
Point D is a stretch but feasible. After all OTL Luftwaffe had a large advantage in numbers at the outbreak of war, and the British did not seem too worried about the fact, only starting to truly ramp up production of planes when the Germans started appearing in the skies of britain. By that time in an ATL whet Germany owns a large bomber fleet and effective fighters, it is possible that there are no aircraft factories left to ramp up anything.
Point A is the real problem: in order for germany to start exploring planes so much earlier you need a different outcome to ww1, and who knows what's going to happen then.


two points
1) Germany suffered all the devastation by Strategic bombing possible without nuclear weapons, It did not surrender despite almost catastrophic damage
2) Japan was probably very close to substantial starvation from submarine blockade.
 

hipper

Banned
Japan was a nation with a limited industrial base, facing the greatest indutrial nation of all time, capable of building subs at the rate other nations could build build pastries; by the way, i totally disagree to to fact that Japan was starved to capitulation by submarine warfare; extensive submarine warfare against japan was only possible late in the war, when allied bases were close enough to japanese maion lines of sea shipping. In order to achieve this a lenghty camapign across the pacific was necessary; furthermore I am of the opinion that the bombing campaign was far more important; remove that and the campaign across pacific and it would have takes years to wear down Japan


er the Germans built far more submarines that the US. American submarines had a range of 10,000+miles no need for proximal bases. Torpedoes that worked were the limiting factor in the US submarine war.
 
You can't have a successful operation sealion, unless you get Germany to start rearming back in the 20s. It is not just a matter of equipment, it is as well a matter of developing tactics and doctrines.

If Germany starts rebuilding its navy in the 1920s, then the British will match that production and more. I do not see how this helps Sea Lion.
 
Ludwig von Stieglitz said:
Japan was a nation with a limited industrial base, facing the greatest indutrial nation of all time, capable of building subs at the rate other nations could build build pastries; by the way, i totally disagree to to fact that Japan was starved to capitulation by submarine warfare; extensive submarine warfare against japan was only possible late in the war, when allied bases were close enough to japanese maion lines of sea shipping. In order to achieve this a lenghty camapign across the pacific was necessary; furthermore I am of the opinion that the bombing campaign was far more important; remove that and the campaign across pacific and it would have takes years to wear down Japan

er the Germans built far more submarines that the US. American submarines had a range of 10,000+miles no need for proximal bases. Torpedoes that worked were the limiting factor in the US submarine war.

What Hipper said so well so succinctly.

Short version: USN suffered a massive torpedo, shell, and bomb crisis and had steep learning curves to ascend across submarines, surface ships and aircraft in how to properly use the same during 1942 and 1943. This practically stymied the USN at sea, allowing the IJN a longer free ride than if the Americans had been up to speed with both weapons and tactics. It took two years of frantic work to train up, work out the weapons system defects and build the subs and ships to carry the naval war forward. That is 1 year (1944). Another year of that kind of war (1945) (What happened in the RTL.) and Japan quit.

1944 is what should have happened much earlier if the USN was war ready in 1942. In that one year, 1944, the USN wiped out 2.1 million tonnes of shipping by subs alone, out of a total merchant marine of 6 million tonnes. Tanker slaughter was some 75%. No oil is obvious, but the silent service was after freighters carrying fertilizer too. WHY? So Japan could not grow food to feed her teeming millions in her cities. No phosphates = no rice. The average caloric intake of a Japanese citizen... was near starvation level.

The aerial mining campaign was primarily based on this cruel factor and to prevent the Japanese from fishing.
 
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It's tempting to think that SL was possible... all the Germans really need to do is make a corridor across the Channel long enough to pour an invasion force in, and capture some ports and airports... if they'd started earlier, if they'd built a different LW and KM, if they had destroyed the BEF at Dunkirk and then hurried up on SL, etc. But as has been pointed out here often, there's a huge number of really big steps that would have to have been taken... and then the Brits would reply along the way with countermeasures. It's just too much of a 'the Germans would have to do everything right and the Brits would have to do everything wrong'...
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
It's tempting to think that SL was possible... all the Germans really need to do is make a corridor across the Channel long enough to pour an invasion force in, and capture some ports and airports... if they'd started earlier, if they'd built a different LW and KM, if they had destroyed the BEF at Dunkirk and then hurried up on SL, etc. But as has been pointed out here often, there's a huge number of really big steps that would have to have been taken... and then the Brits would reply along the way with countermeasures. It's just too much of a 'the Germans would have to do everything right and the Brits would have to do everything wrong'...

Which doesn't quite make it entirely impossible -- just so improbable that it's almost the same thing. There are paths to German victory that do not need Panzers parked in Piccadilly.
 
Which doesn't quite make it entirely impossible -- just so improbable that it's almost the same thing. There are paths to German victory that do not need Panzers parked in Piccadilly.
true, I wouldn't say it is ASB magically impossible... but, it is a very very long shot...
 

hipper

Banned
It's tempting to think that SL was possible... all the Germans really need to do is make a corridor across the Channel long enough to pour an invasion force in, and capture some ports and airports... if they'd started earlier, if they'd built a different LW and KM, if they had destroyed the BEF at Dunkirk and then hurried up on SL, etc. But as has been pointed out here often, there's a huge number of really big steps that would have to have been taken... and then the Brits would reply along the way with countermeasures. It's just too much of a 'the Germans would have to do everything right and the Brits would have to do everything wrong'...

the Germans would have to land 2 to 3 million tonnes of stuff between end September to end November 1940 mostly over the beaches of south east England (20 divisions plus supplies) I suspect its not possible even if the RN took a holiday.

Going by their planned build up times it would take them two weeks to fully land the 8 first wave divisions by the end of which they would be be fighting against twice their number of British Divisions who were about 80% equipped. I'm not confident about their ability to expand or even preserve the beachhead. The British with one of the densest rail and road network in Europe can concentrate so much faster than the Germans its not funny. I believe the German general staff appreciation was that they might as well feed their troops into a mincing machine.
 

hipper

Banned
Which doesn't quite make it entirely impossible -- just so improbable that it's almost the same thing. There are paths to German victory that do not need Panzers parked in Piccadilly.

You need someone else other than Churchill in charge in the UK, peace talks in 1940 and then the Germans push on to Barbarossa in 1941.
 
the Germans would have to land 2 to 3 million tonnes of stuff between end September to end November 1940 mostly over the beaches of south east England (20 divisions plus supplies) I suspect its not possible even if the RN took a holiday.

Going by their planned build up times it would take them two weeks to fully land the 8 first wave divisions by the end of which they would be be fighting against twice their number of British Divisions who were about 80% equipped. I'm not confident about their ability to expand or even preserve the beachhead. The British with one of the densest rail and road network in Europe can concentrate so much faster than the Germans its not funny. I believe the German general staff appreciation was that they might as well feed their troops into a mincing machine.
like I said, it's tempting to think it could happen... but you just can't quite get there... :)
 
the Germans would have to land 2 to 3 million tonnes of stuff between end September to end November 1940 mostly over the beaches of south east England (20 divisions plus supplies) I suspect its not possible even if the RN took a holiday.

Going by their planned build up times it would take them two weeks to fully land the 8 first wave divisions by the end of which they would be be fighting against twice their number of British Divisions who were about 80% equipped. I'm not confident about their ability to expand or even preserve the beachhead. The British with one of the densest rail and road network in Europe can concentrate so much faster than the Germans its not funny. I believe the German general staff appreciation was that they might as well feed their troops into a mincing machine.
Two weeks doesn't sound so bad. The Royal Navy will probably get lost at least twice on its way down from Scapa.

Maybe the German army could spend its summer in some makeshift drydocks along the Rhine now that France has surrendered. If the Americans could build a Liberty ship in five days, then with German efficiency they could probably build a destroyer in three. By September the channel would be swarming with new destroyers.
 

hipper

Banned
Two weeks doesn't sound so bad. The Royal Navy will probably get lost at least twice on its way down from Scapa.

Maybe the German army could spend its summer in some makeshift drydocks along the Rhine now that France has surrendered. If the Americans could build a Liberty ship in five days, then with German efficiency they could probably build a destroyer in three. By September the channel would be swarming with new destroyers.

The Germans tried to build some destroyers in Dutch yards starting in 1942 by 1944 they were still not finished. Can't think why.
 
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