Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

NoMommsen

Donor
you are kind of agreeing with me no conversion just new build, what do you propose not building instead? Ie what is not built so the Deisel engine plants can be?
I.e. as I said already : no twins, neither the first (Scharnhorst, Gneisenau) nor the second pair (Bismarck, Tirpitz). ITTL the first pair of twins might be build to their initial design ? ... about 22.000 to 26.000 tons ? IMO lots of resources to be redirected to other usages.
As also already said ITTL the germans could adopt an "asymetrical force" strategy and thereby wont have much use for capital ships as the metioned.


And more interestingly Why do the Germans think they need to have so many coastal forces in the mid thirties.
Due to the soviet or polish threats of East-Prussia, Pommerania, Mecklenburgia. ... real or not (depending on the alternate history of TTL) and only "perceived".

Oh, this could also "serve" as an official "reasoning" for the development of "proper landing crafts" :
In case of a soviet or polisj incursion/attack, that cuts off access to proper harbours, german troops have to be "landed" on the coast of East-Prussia and/or Pommerania without harbour-support.​
 
There is comedy gold here.

The state of rocketry in Germany just might be good enough for a naval rocket big enough to swat a destroyer, launched from a large craft (say 300-500 tonne displacement missile boat in English Channel or North Sea conditions), but that rocket would be liquid-fuelled with C-Stoff and T-Stoff, (the existent German rocket fuel hyper-golic technology). The guidance (semi-active radar homing) is non-existent in the German tech tree past 1945, though the British will invent and the Americans will use it around 1944. So it is going to be a ballistic missile...

Good luck hitting anything.

And then there is the German hypergolic fuel technology extant. C-stoff, T-stoff and Z-stoff. What does that all mean? One whiff of T-stoff and you die of a kind of internal drowning as your lungs flood with your own body fluid. One whiff of C-stoff and your lungs are burned to a crisp. And those were the 'safe' concoctions. Now one proposes that the rocket is going to be near seawater on a small boat? Jostle the rocket as one attempts to fuel it (you cannot field these things wet) and it explodes. Look at it funny and it explodes. Guaranteed 1 in 2 chance that Seaman Felix Fumbledork forgets something important on the pre-launch safety check list and it explodes.

ASB all the way. The Russians sensibly used jet engines. Kerosene fuelled primitive badly made turbine jet engines for their early cruise missiles. They were crazy.
 
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NoMommsen

Donor
Well they did a exercise in 1974, if you like what might happen see the link.

What if: Operation Sealion, summary of an exercise held in 1974.
Interesting link, indeed.
But ...
Nobody here argues, that the OTL plans for the OTL Operation SeaLion were feasable in the OTL circumstances.

WARNING: THIS DOES NOT DISPLAY A COUNTERFACTUAL SCENARIO!

This thread is created with the purpose of discussing a non-ASB successful Operation Sea Lion.

So what must happen to create a non-ASB Sea Lion?
The OP askes for changes of OTL, for an ATL, Alternative Time Line, in which almost every condition could be changed by whatever Pod, PODs at whatever point of time.

Does it say the war has to start as IOTL ? ... regarding time as well as opponents ?
Does it say the war will take the same course as IOTL ?
Does it even state, that it has to be a Hitlerist Germany ?

Stop sticking to OTL as chewing gum to school tables.



These statements of the OP
1. Operation Dynamo fails, and 300,000 BEF troops are captured. The air force and parts of the Navy are gutted to try and desperately raise an army to stop the Germans (assuming Churchill rallies the nation to fight on still).

2. Germany must win the Battle of Britain in the air (maybe possible with better coordination, IDK cause I'm not a historian)

3. The Germans (somehow) decisively defeat the Home fleet. This may be helped if we assume the surface fleet is not catastrophically destroyed invading Norway in 1940. Also might be possible if we give the KM 2 Graf Zeppelin Aircraft Carriers with lobbying from Raeder.

Then there are a couple of other issues:
1. British plans included shelling the beaches with Phosgene and Mustard Gas, and there is no reason why they wouldn't do so should the Germans decide to invade
2. There were many stop-lines created with tank traps and fortifications. These defensive lines were hastily assembled however.
3. British Auxiliary units were secretly created to conduct partisan resistance. These units had relatively short supplies and were not expected to be operational for more than a few weeks.

Let's have a good discussion in the comments and be civilized. Tell me about what else awaits the Germans (or aids them in their Sea Mammal adventures) because I'm not a historian.

(I can already hear the AH Gods telling me that it is always going to be ASB.)
I don't understand as prerequisites for any proposal, but points to be be considered and adressed and as or if possible to be avoided.
 
I believed you meant to build lots of E-boats and use anti-ship missies.

I mean I said after that that the primitive tech precluded it from being feasible which means I dismissed the idea as implausible out of hand. I basicalky said in so many words the idea was not a serious one for the time period. If the Nazis waited a decade or so maybe they could make Sealiom work.

Yet to prove? Look it up, it’s stated fact. Where is the source? A simple search for the wiki article has the sentence “It was staffed by conscripting males between the ages of 16 and 60 years who were not already serving in some military unit as part of a German Home Guard.” in the opening paragraph. Later on, it’s explained “So additional categories of men were called into service, including those in non-essential jobs, those previously deemed unfit, over-age, or under-age, and those recovering from wounds.” Finally “Units were mostly composed of members of the Hitler Youth, invalids, the elderly, or men who had previously been considered unfit for military service. Further desperation showed when on 12 February 1945, the Nazis conscripted German women and girls into the auxiliaries of the Volkssturm.” The Volksturm were boys, old men, injured soldiers and eventually women and children. If you believe that is equivalent to the Home Guard, fair enough. I don’t.

Wikis say a lot of stuff, there is a picture of a bunch of volsturm that looked like a bunch of men (not old) on wikipedia marching in parade which made me skeptical. The reason I know the Home Guard were not predominatly old men is because I googled it and saw it was researched.
 
I.e. as I said already : no twins, neither the first (Scharnhorst, Gneisenau) nor the second pair (Bismarck, Tirpitz). ITTL the first pair of twins might be build to their initial design ? ... about 22.000 to 26.000 tons ? IMO lots of resources to be redirected to other usages.
As also already said ITTL the germans could adopt an "asymetrical force" strategy and thereby wont have much use for capital ships as the metioned.

Due to the soviet or polish threats of East-Prussia, Pommerania, Mecklenburgia. ... real or not (depending on the alternate history of TTL) and only "perceived".

Oh, this could also "serve" as an official "reasoning" for the development of "proper landing crafts" :
In case of a soviet or polisj incursion/attack, that cuts off access to proper harbours, german troops have to be "landed" on the coast of East-Prussia and/or Pommerania without harbour-support.​
The problem with Germany choosing an asymmetrical naval strategy, is that such a strategy announces in big bold letters "we are planning to go to war with the UK", whereas OTLs balanced fleet could be aimed at France or the USSR. Indeed Germany was worried enough about pissing off the British that the German Navy was basically ordered not to even think about fighting the UK. If Germany only builds the lighter twins, and then doesn't lay down any other heavy units, that is going to send up a red flag, and anger Britain. If Britain starts rearming earlier, or takes a red line earlier Germany is in deep shit. And of course with no Bismark/Tirpitz and lighter twins, well the RN has resources freed up too

So basically your proposed course of action makes it much more likely that Germany is not in a position to even contemplate Sealion
 

SsgtC

Banned
The problem with Germany choosing an asymmetrical naval strategy, is that such a strategy announces in big bold letters "we are planning to go to war with the UK", whereas OTLs balanced fleet could be aimed at France or the USSR. Indeed Germany was worried enough about pissing off the British that the German Navy was basically ordered not to even think about fighting the UK. If Germany only builds the lighter twins, and then doesn't lay down any other heavy units, that is going to send up a red flag, and anger Britain. If Britain starts rearming earlier, or takes a red line earlier Germany is in deep shit. And of course with no Bismark/Tirpitz and lighter twins, well the RN has resources freed up too

So basically your proposed course of action makes it much more likely that Germany is not in a position to even contemplate Sealion
Pretty much. Because by the time they would have even dreamed up Sealion, Germany would have been curbstomped by the UK and France. Probably with a few comments thrown in about "upstarts" and "finishing what we started 20 years ago."
 

NoMommsen

Donor
@RamscoopRaider and @SsgtC
Pretty much ... nonsense you talk there.
  1. what you say is impregnated by, pregnant of and oozing almost from every letter : hindsight of OTL
  2. and once again : this is not OTL, this is an ATL with most likely and the very likelyhood of many changes, making you hindsight -rumbling senseless.
Btw. : staying with a coastal Navy is exactly, what was intended by the ToV rules regarding the german fleet.

Therefore staying with it, it is more likely, that esp Britain would look benevolent upon Germany, staying within its ToV set borders (despite feeling somewhat uncomfortable with the "new" concept of the Deutschland-class).
Sry, but ... can't see any "red flag" popping up.
 
Wikis say a lot of stuff, there is a picture of a bunch of volsturm that looked like a bunch of men (not old) on wikipedia marching in parade which made me skeptical. The reason I know the Home Guard were not predominatly old men is because I googled it and saw it was researched.

Average age of the first Voltsturm levy (unlimited usage) was 52.
Second levy were vital workers who were only available for training on Sundays.
Third levy were under19s to get military training from the Hitler Youth.
Fourth levy were those unfit for any military service.

So you have old, untrained, young and untrained, or medically incapable.

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id...=onepage&q=volkssturm recruit details&f=false
 

SsgtC

Banned
@RamscoopRaider and @SsgtC
Pretty much ... nonsense you talk there.
  1. what you say is impregnated by, pregnant of and oozing almost from every letter : hindsight of OTL
  2. and once again : this is not OTL, this is an ATL with most likely and the very likelyhood of many changes, making you hindsight -rumbling senseless.
Btw. : staying with a coastal Navy is exactly, what was intended by the ToV rules regarding the german fleet.

Therefore staying with it, it is more likely, that esp Britain would look benevolent upon Germany, staying within its ToV set borders (despite feeling somewhat uncomfortable with the "new" concept of the Deutschland-class).
Sry, but ... can't see any "red flag" popping up.
Except now you're overlooking something. To have a realistic shot at invading Britain, Germany needs to begin planning for it years in advance. Meaning they need ships optimised for operations in the channel. And they need so many of them that their purpose would become painfully obvious to anyone with eyes and a brain. Because let's face it, they don't need a huge antisurface Navy in the Baltic. There's so many things they have to do first to pull off a successful Sealion, that the British and French would very quickly pick up on and go "Oh hell no!"

Keep in mind, there is ONE reason why the Germans would develop an amphibious capability. The invasion of the UK. They have no other need for it otherwise.
 
@RamscoopRaider and @SsgtC
Pretty much ... nonsense you talk there.
  1. what you say is impregnated by, pregnant of and oozing almost from every letter : hindsight of OTL
  2. and once again : this is not OTL, this is an ATL with most likely and the very likelyhood of many changes, making you hindsight -rumbling senseless.
Btw. : staying with a coastal Navy is exactly, what was intended by the ToV rules regarding the german fleet.

Therefore staying with it, it is more likely, that esp Britain would look benevolent upon Germany, staying within its ToV set borders (despite feeling somewhat uncomfortable with the "new" concept of the Deutschland-class).
Sry, but ... can't see any "red flag" popping up.
They were fine with the German Navy as set out with Versailles, though a bit peeved at the Deutschlands. But Versailles limited them to 12 torpedo boats of less than 200 tons and 12 DD of 200-800 tons. Nothing that was a threat to the UK and the UK could simply brush aside 24 small combatants

You have heard of the Anglo-German Naval Agreement? The goal of that was to get Germany to commit to a balanced fleet, which would be something the UK could easily deal with and not worry them. So either Germany does not agree to it, and Britain is less favorably biased to them starting from 1935, or Germany agrees with it and can only build 35% the coastal forces of the UK. Of course Germany could just agree and not build the heavies, but not laying any heavies down by 1938 would start to look really weird, especially if they are rushing to build up in every other category of ship, and have the building slips available for the heavies. Why that suggests that they aren't intending to abide by the agreement, merely using it for breathing space and are planning an asymmetrical naval war, which can only reasonably be aimed at the UK, as a balanced fleet could easily thrash the USSR in the Baltic and be useful against France, only against the UK is it a liability
 
What tells you there's an AGN ITTL at all ? ... or it might look ITTL ? ... or when it is concluded ITTL ?
I am not making that assumption, I even said what what happen, no AGNA then UK/German tensions are higher, as there is no assurance Germany does not seek to challenge the RN, and that means bad things for Germany if the UK is less inclined to agree as opposed to fight in '38 or early '39, and if the UK starts rearming quicker. And of course if there an AGNA, than unless Britain strategic situation is massively changed, than a balanced fleet is always going to be the lesser threat to the UK, so it will look similar to OTL though might be 30% or 40% rather than 35%
 

hipper

Banned
What tells you there's an AGN ITTL at all ? ... or it might look ITTL ? ... or when it is concluded ITTL ?

The critical issue for the UK is that Germany started making U boats in 1935 hitler was worried that the UK might back the French in 1936 hence the agreement only to build a limited number of submarines that’s the critical agreement. SBoats are nuance only
 
Average age of the first Voltsturm levy (unlimited usage) was 52.
Second levy were vital workers who were only available for training on Sundays.
Third levy were under19s to get military training from the Hitler Youth.
Fourth levy were those unfit for any military service.

So you have old, untrained, young and untrained, or medically incapable.

https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=auSWd5b7SGsC&pg=PA160&lpg=PA160&dq=volkssturm+recruit+details&source=bl&ots=i4hnCycOVz&sig=dDNZ14AKwdx_PvKfGogVKiNouWA&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwihs6O1lI3ZAhXMCMAKHchbAxkQ6AEIYTAN#v=onepage&q=volkssturm recruit details&f=false

Thanks but I didn't ask you. Seems to have a negligible amount of young if that were true, otherwise it would have drove down the average age range. The average age was between 45 and 52 in my understanding. Considering what a mockery the regular German army basically made of the American, British (Soviet) armies (perhaps even the Volkssturm did too) in so many ways still entirely irrelevant point
 
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I hate to interrupt a fascinating discussion of army personnel policy, but frankly, I think you're busying yourselves with secondary details.

There really are two central questions that have to be addressed in any Sea Lion discussion for an ATL, and if you can't answer these decisively, it cannot possibly matter whether the ratio of British defenders it takes to stop the German attackers is 1:1, or 5:1, or 20:1, or 50:1.

1.) What will you do to cross the channel and avoid the Royal Navy, which, unlike the army, is actually Britain's main line of defense?

2.) How will you prevent the British from easily countering whatever it is you propose to do to solve question #1?

The British have substantially more ships than the Germans and also substantially more shipbuilding capacity. "Germany should just start building landing ships," or now rocket missile ships (WTF????) apparently, presumes that the British will just observe these developments and do nothing. Why on earth would the world's largest navy allow unchallenged a potential rival to build a force capable of invading its homeland? This is absurdity. You can't just "go backwards" a few years to start the planning and assume that the British will spend those years doing nothing in response to an obviously mounting threat.

Previous threads have repeatedly demonstrated that the Sea Lion plans called, as they would have had to, for the German forces to begin assembling days prior to the actual landings. I seriously doubt there is a single historical precedent for a successful amphibious operation against a major power in the face of enemy naval superiority by said power and without the element of surprise, but perhaps someone can dredge up an example from God knows where. The almost certain reality is that upon realizing an invasion is genuinely underway the British will flood the channel with every armed ship they can find. This will result in serious losses from the Luftwaffe, but I'm guessing a few hundred military vessels can sink some barges faster than they can be sunk themselves by an air force that is still very new to the anti-shipping game.

In those threads, people speculated a number of potential ways to make the operation feasible. For instance, they have speculated that instead of invading England proper the Germans should have headed to the Isle of Wight. They have also suggested that the Germans mount anti-aircraft guns on the decks of their barges so that the barges can go toe-to-toe with Tribal-class destroyers. Want to go down that route again?

I don't want to sound too derisive here. People who ask "the Sea Lion question" have their heads in the right place for alternative history, usually anyways, but I just don't think this is the right place to spend their energy. Surely there are other important turning points in history that were much closer-run things and therefore much easier to push back and forth from an AH perspective.
 
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Thanks but I didn't ask you. Seems to have a negligible amount of young if that were true, otherwise it would have drove down the average age range. The average age was between 45 and 52 in my understanding. Considering what a mockery the regular German army basically made of the American, British (Soviet) armies (perhaps even the Volkssturm did too) in so many ways still entirely irrelevant point

Heilbronn.

That was the best they could do. It was not very good. The British and Canadians (The Canadians were very present and participated in it too, thank you very much!) encountered similar resistance; in this case from better led and equipped fellows. Again despite terrain and weather factors and other sundry defensive aids, the result was not very good.
 
The Battle of the Atlantic would be where I put my AH apples. The available wriggle room and possible outcomes from a few PoDs are more amenable. Just the crypto game could be a decisive difference as to how the campaign is waged; if not to its eventual outcome. For another example, what if Doenitz really understood the concept of flow strategy and chokepoints, instead of his dubious "tonnage strategy" with which he waged his campaign?
 
I find the discussion comparing the Home Guard and the Volkssturm of great interest. I knew that overall the Home Guard was in better shape than the Volkssturm, particularly in terms of firepower. Small arms were in short supply at first but shipments from American soon armed them although ammo wasn't plentiful. And some support weapons (MG's and artillery) were available, although the Northover Projector and the Smith Gun can't be considered even second-line equipment.

This is far better than the Volkssturm who basically had hunting rifles and shotguns backed up by Panzerfausts. No MG's or artillery and no organic transport. Even stiffened by regular troops they were of limited value due to lack of training and firepower...
 
I kinda don't get the obsession with Sea Lion; it seems to me the thing Germany would really be angling for is political capitulation. A failed Dynamo allows Germany to use the captured BEF as a bargaining chip: peace and recognition of the German puppet states in exchange for the 250k or so prisoners. I can't say for certain, but I think that put's a huge pressure on the British to come to terms.
 

AndyC

Donor
The "Sea Lion did not have a chance in hell to succeed" threads make me think - why the OTL panic then?
The excitable PM aside, the UK must have had some cool heads around ...
Because in OTL in 1940, the German plans and limitations were not known the way they are now.
We look back at the intelligence reports of the time, coupled with what we know from historical records, but the British did not know that the Germans had no way to convey their troops across other than river barges, to be town at 2-3 knots, and undermanned because they didn't have enough personnel.
The limitations of resources on the Luftwaffe weren't known in detail. The numbers of U-boats weren't known. The capabilities of the Luftwaffe were only just being established in combat against a comparable force, using the first integrated air defence system (and undergoing arguments over whether or not the system or strategy were right in the first place), and so on.
I bet we could find intelligence reports hinting at what we know, but, with 20/20 hindsight, we now know which intelligence reports were right and which were mistaken, and how much credibility to give to estimates, reports, and ideas.
 
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