Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

Wouldn't successful simply mean Britain makes peace with Germany? It is my understanding Sealion was done with the purpose of forcing Britain to make peace, not to conquer it.

So I guess it could be successful if Britain realize Germany is really going to do it, there is nationwide panic and Churchill is either overthrown or sues for peace. This might be possible if Dynamo fails horribly.

Even discounting how unlikely this is, all it does is get peace with Britain, it doesn't defeat them. Britain would remain implacably hostile to Germany. Any peace that removes Britain's ability to defend themselves will be rejected, no matter how panicked the populace got.
 
So did I - you're going on about the USMC like you never knew the first thing about how badly the first week of Watchtower was executed by all commands.

Savo Island aside, the whole thing went off successfully. The only battle at sea that mattered was the Battle of the Eastern Solomons, and Frank Jack Fletcher, the carrier admiral who retired because he had to refuel his destroyers (a sore point to this day, because the Marines felt he abandoned them.), survived with his maneuver capability and forces intact and won that carrier fight to deny the IJN the only shot they had to wrest Guadalcanal back. You see, after that battle, Marine, and Navy air won air superiority operating from Henderson Field. The Japanese stood no real chance once shore based air was established. Pacific CHESS. Island air field is the queen.

So... I enjoyed the complete misread you had of Operation Shoestring and what was going on that island.
 
So did I - you're going on about the USMC like you never knew the first thing about how badly the first week of Watchtower was executed by all commands.

What I took from that was how badly things can go in amphibious operations even with the institutional expertise of the USMC behind it, but what do I know?
 
Best chance is naval siege; that is the U-boat campaign. Germany lacked the means to pull it off. So... I would suggest like those two famous Senators, Slim and Nunn, the chances for British surrender are...

The British at that time didn't knew, like us, as far as I know, how hillariously impossible a German invasion was. In the War Cabinet Crisis when the Dunkirk miracle was uncertain, a lot of prominent government members considered that a white peace with Germany would be extremely reasonable. So it is not without merit. At that time the British were alone, their hope for defeating Germany relied entirely on dragging the US to war.

Even discounting how unlikely this is, all it does is get peace with Britain, it doesn't defeat them. Britain would remain implacably hostile to Germany. Any peace that removes Britain's ability to defend themselves will be rejected, no matter how panicked the populace got.

But the topic is not about Germany defeating Britain, but a successful Sealion. The goal of Sealion was to force Britain to make peace, not to defeat it, if the preparations for Sealion or the initial attempts have the effect of making Britain make peace, then the operation was a success.

I think you guys just look at the numbers and the military situation and don't take in count the political and social factors. We know how the USSR vs Nazi was went, yet Stalin was willing to throw the towel just months into the invasion and make a repeat of Brest Litovsk giving Germany huge prizes without fighting at all. Not all wars are fought to the end. People make mistakes, deals are forged.
 

hipper

Banned
Insufficient numbers was my assumption. Iceland big. Royal Marines tough, but small.

Probably larger than the USM in 1940

However they were numerous enough: the British Invasion of Iceland in 1940 per wiki.

the UK invaded on the morning of 10 May 1940. The initial force of 746 British Royal Marines commanded by Colonel Robert Sturges disembarked at the capital Reykjavík. Meeting no resistance, the troops moved quickly to disable communication networks, secure strategic locations, and arrest German citizens. Requisitioning local transport, the troops moved to Hvalfjörður, Kaldaðarnes, Sandskeið, and Akranes to secure landing areas against the possibility of a German counterattack.
 
The British at that time didn't knew, like us, as far as I know, how hillariously impossible a German invasion was. In the War Cabinet Crisis when the Dunkirk miracle was uncertain, a lot of prominent government members considered that a white peace with Germany would be extremely reasonable. So it is not without merit. At that time the British were alone, their hope for defeating Germany relied entirely on dragging the US to war.

But the topic is not about Germany defeating Britain, but a successful Sealion. The goal of Sealion was to force Britain to make peace, not to defeat it, if the preparations for Sealion or the initial attempts have the effect of making Britain make peace, then the operation was a success.

I think you guys just look at the numbers and the military situation and don't take in count the political and social factors. We know how the USSR vs Nazi was went, yet Stalin was willing to throw the towel just months into the invasion and make a repeat of Brest Litovsk giving Germany huge prizes without fighting at all. Not all wars are fought to the end. People make mistakes, deals are forged.

Look, Churchill was not an idiot. He asked his professionals if they could beat off an invasion and they told him they could hold. It, defeating Sea Lion at the time, wasn't that big a gamble and they knew it. The U-boat war was the gamble. There the uncertainty was huge, and it was with the U-boat campaign that Churchill took his huge gamble.
 
Look, Churchill was not an idiot. He asked his professionals if they could beat off an invasion and they told him they could hold. It, defeating Sea Lion at the time, wasn't that big a gamble and they knew it. The U-boat war was the gamble. There the uncertainty was huge, and it was with the U-boat campaign that Churchill took his huge gamble.

As the man himself put it: ‘…the only thing that ever really frightened me during the war was the U-boat peril.’
 
But the topic is not about Germany defeating Britain, but a successful Sealion. The goal of Sealion was to force Britain to make peace, not to defeat it, if the preparations for Sealion or the initial attempts have the effect of making Britain make peace, then the operation was a success.

I think you guys just look at the numbers and the military situation and don't take in count the political and social factors. We know how the USSR vs Nazi was went, yet Stalin was willing to throw the towel just months into the invasion and make a repeat of Brest Litovsk giving Germany huge prizes without fighting at all. Not all wars are fought to the end. People make mistakes, deals are forged.

I have to disagree with you on the aims of sealion. It aimed to remove Britain as a threat. Britain agreeing to a temporary, napoleonic cessation of hostilities does not do this.
 
There is one very obvious problem with trying to invade Iceland from Germany (well, there's loads of obvious problems, but bear with me). The British are going to be putting quite a lot of effort into looking for submarines and raiders - Graf Spee might have gone but the British are aware of her sisters and Bismark and they have forces watching for them. More specifically they have them watching the GIUK gap, which is basically the only way a German raider can safely reach the Atlantic with a hope of avoiding detection.

Even if you can find a way to actually transport a credible landing force and even if the Germans decide that this madness is worth a shot, all it takes is one Sunderland or Anson in the wrong place at the wrong time and we get to play a game of how many torpedoes can an ocean liner dodge?

There's a hell of a lot of ocean between Germany/Norway and Iceland and much of it is covered by British patrol planes while one of the Royal Navy's largest fleet bases sits on the southern edge of our intrepid invasion force's route.
 

SsgtC

Banned
So, reading your post just made me think of something here. The Germans know that the RN is out in force to keep their raiders out of the Atlantic. How plausible would it be for the Germans to make ALL the outward preparations for Sealion, including actually having their soldiers embarking onto the barges, tugs, etc in order to bluff the Royal Navy into thinking the invasion is coming and pulling the fleet out of the GIUK gap to defend Britain. Thus opening a window for Germany to sortie the fleet into the Atlantic and raise pure bloody hell with the convoys?
 
So, reading your post just made me think of something here. The Germans know that the RN is out in force to keep their raiders out of the Atlantic. How plausible would it be for the Germans to make ALL the outward preparations for Sealion, including actually having their soldiers embarking onto the barges, tugs, etc in order to bluff the Royal Navy into thinking the invasion is coming and pulling the fleet out of the GIUK gap to defend Britain. Thus opening a window for Germany to sortie the fleet into the Atlantic and raise pure bloody hell with the convoys?

You mean like the actual part of the original plan for Sea Lion where the Kriegsmarine's operational heavy units sortie out in a northerly direction to avoid getting sunk in the Channel, ahem My Fuhrer I mean draw off the Royal Navy or raid in the Atlantic?

The only problem is that RN has ships, in particular the sort of light ships that are good for tearing up barges and merchant men trying to pretend to be LSTs, to go round.
 
So, reading your post just made me think of something here. The Germans know that the RN is out in force to keep their raiders out of the Atlantic. How plausible would it be for the Germans to make ALL the outward preparations for Sealion, including actually having their soldiers embarking onto the barges, tugs, etc in order to bluff the Royal Navy into thinking the invasion is coming and pulling the fleet out of the GIUK gap to defend Britain. Thus opening a window for Germany to sortie the fleet into the Atlantic and raise pure bloody hell with the convoys?

It's certainly a plan. It does leave the Home Fleet (assuming the RN decide to send them rather than leaving it to the light units on the south coast) heading south in the North Sea just as Germany's small flotilla of heavy units are heading north. There's a lot of room for two fleets to pass without seeing each other in the North Sea, of course, but you're back to what happens if one patrol aircraft or cruiser with radar lit up is in the wrong place at the wrong time and the raiders are left with the entire Home Fleet coming after them at best speed while the FAA and Bomber Command have a crack at them with everything that can take off.

There's also the problem that the Germans would need to move their 'invasion force' somewhere to force the British into reacting with the risk that they get caught at sea by the RN while they're floating around.
 

SsgtC

Banned
You mean like the actual part of the original plan for Sea Lion where the Kriegsmarine's operational heavy units sortie out in a northerly direction to avoid getting sunk in the Channel, ahem My Fuhrer I mean draw off the Royal Navy or raid in the Atlantic?

The only problem is that RN has ships, in particular the sort of light ships that are good for tearing up barges and merchant men trying to pretend to be LSTs, to go round.
Good point
 
There is one very obvious problem with trying to invade Iceland from Germany (well, there's loads of obvious problems, but bear with me). The British are going to be putting quite a lot of effort into looking for submarines and raiders - Graf Spee might have gone but the British are aware of her sisters and Bismark and they have forces watching for them. More specifically they have them watching the GIUK gap, which is basically the only way a German raider can safely reach the Atlantic with a hope of avoiding detection.

Even if you can find a way to actually transport a credible landing force and even if the Germans decide that this madness is worth a shot, all it takes is one Sunderland or Anson in the wrong place at the wrong time and we get to play a game of how many torpedoes can an ocean liner dodge?

There's a hell of a lot of ocean between Germany/Norway and Iceland and much of it is covered by British patrol planes while one of the Royal Navy's largest fleet bases sits on the southern edge of our intrepid invasion force's route.

The biggest problem was no airfields. We're talking about Guadalcanal a bit. The objective of that landing was an airfield. Most amphibious landings were for airfields. Norway and Crete - airfields. Iceland in 1940 might have had about 1 very small airfield.
 

nbcman

Donor
So, reading your post just made me think of something here. The Germans know that the RN is out in force to keep their raiders out of the Atlantic. How plausible would it be for the Germans to make ALL the outward preparations for Sealion, including actually having their soldiers embarking onto the barges, tugs, etc in order to bluff the Royal Navy into thinking the invasion is coming and pulling the fleet out of the GIUK gap to defend Britain. Thus opening a window for Germany to sortie the fleet into the Atlantic and raise pure bloody hell with the convoys?
Other than submarines, the German Navy was almost nonexistent in the summer of 1940. There isn’t much for the Germans to do with their limited naval forces even if they could get past the RN.

EDIT: KM strength was 3 CL 4 DD undamaged after the Norwegian campaign as I referenced in this previous post:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...could-not-succeed.426671/page-4#post-15687273
 
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We're going in circles here.

When is this invasion of Iceland supposed to take place, precisely, and which German naval assets are going to be committed to it? Those are the first questions.

Pins and needles waiting for the answers here.

If we wait for summer 1940, then the Germans have already missed their chance. In fact, May 9 is probably the last date this can be attempted.
 
No.



You're kidding about this?

Operation_Albion_Map.jpg


That failed twice against a disorganized mob in the middle of a civil war. Third time was the charm. Short ranged operation, heavily supported from the landward side.

Never heard of previous attempts, when were they done? "Heavily supportd from the landward side" = map shows islands taken only by seaborne troops and operation 100 miles away that has no direct impact. The invasion was a successful multi-division operation involving significant land, sea, and air forces against 22,000 defenders equipped with coastal guns up to 15" calibre that did affect German doctrine. Looks like the only thing that would convince you that a successful Sealion operation could be mounted would be a successful Sealion operation - actually no, that wouldn't be enough, as probably you would say they didn't do it properly and it would have to be done again so it could be done the way you think it should be done.
 
Other than submarines, the German Navy was almost nonexistent in the summer of 1940. There isn’t much for the Germans to do with their limited naval forces even if they could get past the RN.

EDIT: KM strength was 3 CL 4 DD undamaged after the Norwegian campaign as I referenced in this previous post:

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...could-not-succeed.426671/page-4#post-15687273

But the RN didn't know that, and they said they would not put their capital ships into the channel as it was unsuitable for capital ships, unnecessary (50 cruisers and destroyers available) and too risky (plus they expected the Germans to do what was planned - send raiders into the Atlantic sea lanes as a diversion). It took most of the Home fleet plus Force H just to track down and sink one ship in May 1941 (the Bismark) and at the end of 1940 German capital ships did break out into the Atlantic. The Germans had broken the British naval code and had better radar on their capital ships (in 1940 many British ships had no radar) which is why the Scharnhorst was able to evade the British ships early in the war (later in the war the Sharnhorst got sunk because it was afraid of using its radar so it didn't know that it was being shot at until it was too late). So the Germans had to deal with the 50 or so destroyers and light cruisers - well they were scattered around England and on convoy escort duties so they weren't going to be there on S Day. Combats between the German destroyers (your figures are too low and do not include the "T" boats which were the same size as Hunt class destroyers) and the British destroyers in the Channel prior to 1942 usually were resolved in the Germans' favour, as the British destroyers had had most of their torpedoes removed (and had Mountbatten in command) - that's if the British found the German destroyers, who several times came close to the British coastline without detection. So to blockade the invaders the huge number of RN ships have to survive being shot at by channel guns (which got very close to hitting them and made them run away even when they were travelling at high speed at night), the minefields, Luftwaffe attacks, u-boat attacks, S-boat attacks, and the close-in escorts (which were actually of similar numbers and reasonably well armed - the British called the German minesweepers "channel destroyers"). It's unlikely that the Germans would succeed but this thread is about making them succeed, and it's not impossible, just unlikely. The Germans could build more coastal ships S-boats, minesweepers, and destroyers and fewer capital ships without upsetting any treaty requirements or the British prior to the war.
 
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