In hindsight I think it was a bit much mentioning missiles in the context of Sealion, but air and submarines (etc.) are still perfectly viable for anti-access/area denial strategy in modern times, can someone please explain why wouldn't the Germans be able to shut down the channel doing this, with aircraft for example (especially their rudimentary jet aircraft)? What constraints are there?
Look, Glenn. I don't mean to sound offensive or anything so if it comes across that way, I apologise. But this statement right here really shows how little you actually understand logistics or amphibious assualts. You cannot, and I can not stress this enough, improvise logistics on an amphibious assualt. Even if it's an unopposed landing. [You are garaunteed to fail if you try to.
There is no calling up the quartermaster corps and saying, "hey, we just realised we need this, can you throw it on a truck please?" Everything is coming from a warehouse, to the dock, onto a ship, across an ocean, onto another dock (if you're luck, a beach if you're not), onto another truck and then finally reaching whoever needs the gear. You CAN'T improvise that.
Presumably this won't be a problem in a fanciful invasion of Iceland in the sense that Iceland doesn't have a military to defend itself. (On the other hand, if your cute little invasion convoy runs into the British picket ships in the North Sea, it's pretty much game over.) At that point, yes, you're absolutely correct that the decision to improvise the logistics -- a la Glenn -- is rapidly going to start biting you pretty hard.
I don't know why Glenn doesn't take this seriously, but I am quite sure that the Germans, having cut their teeth so to speak on invasions of small, neighbouring countries within a few days' brisk walking distance, had simply never had to worry about long-range logistics before.
Considering that US amphibious doctrine goes all the way back to Winfield Scott and his assault on Vera Cruz in the Mexican American war, are we even sure 20 years is enough for the Herr?
So the underlined are the two key points. First, that Iceland doesn't have a military. Second, that the RN will sink an invasion convoy if it encounters it. Now, keeping in mind that Iceland is too far to hold, so the point we are talking about is purely theoretical. Do you think SsgtC is on solid ground to insist on extensive preparations because shore to ship to shore logistics is a difficult specialist occupation, or very dangerous ground, because to make extensive preparations will tip the game and increase the chances of an RN interception, while a more ad hoc attack is more likely to be a surprise?
I said that a landing would succeed because, you use your own words, "Iceland doesn't have a military to defend itself". I then added that this would be pointless because there were no airfields to operate from and the improvised nature of the logistics coupled with the long sea distances and inevitable and powerful British counterattack would rapidly cause any invasion to completely collapse, probably within weeks. How's any of that not taking the difficulties seriously?
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.SsgtC, can you provide a few examples in the past one hundred years where an unopposed amphibious landing was repulsed?
An army logistics service acting in an amphibious role is not going to be as good as a specialist service, such as the USMC. As before, when such an improvised line of communication was tested by a British or even Anglo-American counterattack, it would collapse. A landing on Iceland would get ashore because it would be unopposed, but it would be hopeless in the long run.
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.
Let me sketch out to you what improvised logistics looks like for the Heer. Keep in mind, this is not the Marine Corps, who had a history of amphibious assaults and quite literally wrote the book on how to conduct them. The Marines already had standing Standard Operating Procedures for conducting an amphibious assault, and if need be, could improvise bassed off of standing procedure. The Heer does not have that. They need to make the whole thing up as they go. The Corps could base their decisions on what they know is ideally what is required and go, "close enough, it'll get the job done." The Heer can't. They have no idea what they ideally need. So let's look at "improvised" German Logistics.
Well first, you need a way to get the men there. Sorry to say, even OKW wouldn't consider a Rhine River barge for a trip to Iceland. Well, how about an ocean liner? Bremen and Europa can carry several thousand soldiers each and a lot of supplies in their cargo holds. They even their own cargo handling equipment. Hey, maybe we don't need those specialized ships after all?
Ok, so how do we get everyone ashore? Well, the ships have a lot of lifeboats, and each one can hold a reinforced rifle platoon. Sweet! I always knew those specialized Higgins Boats were overrated.
So now your men are ashore. The boats are even ferrying across additional supplies of food ammo and medicine. But now Gefrieter Johans Q Bumblefuck says to Feldwebel Schmidt, "Hey, this is great Feldwebel! When are they going to bring our heavy weapons across?" At this point, Feldwebel Schmidt puts his finger in the air, opens his mouth to tell Gerfrieter Bumblefuck to get back to work, then promptly shuts his mouth and walks off to give the Oberfeldwebel. Who has the same reaction. Who then goes and finds the Leutnant. Who finds the Hauptman. Who finds the Major. Who finds the Oberstleutnsnt. Who finds the Oberst. And so on and so forth until the whole thing lands on Kietel's desk. Who's quickly going to realize that, just maybe, they actually did need some of that specialized equipment after all.
The funny thing is, they'd have better odds of surviving if the British knew the Germans were preparing an amphibious operation. Because they would assume that the target was the UK, and deploy their fleet accordingly. That may actually increase the odds of the Germans reaching Iceland safely.It sure is thoughtful of the Germans, in this scenario, to load thousands of their best troops onto an undefended ocean liner and send them off on a one-way trip into British-controlled ocean.
It doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.The funny thing is, they'd have better odds of surviving if the British knew the Germans were preparing an amphibious operation. Because they would assume that the target was the UK, and deploy their fleet accordingly. That may actually increase the odds of the Germans reaching Iceland safely.
Edit: plus, the Germans planned to use liners in OTL Sealion anyway, so it's not really stretching things for them to do it here.
I don't think so, no. Maybe if they can keep their speed down to economical cruising speed. Which renders the whole point moot since that drastically increases the odds they're sunk enroute. If the Germans tried doing this, Iceland basically becomes a self guarding POW campIt doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.
Can a German destroyer even reach Iceland and back on one fuel load?
That kind of scuppers this whole thing, then.I don't think so, no. Maybe if they can keep their speed down to economical cruising speed. Which renders the whole point moot since that drastically increases the odds they're sunk enroute. If the Germans tried doing this, Iceland basically becomes a self guarding POW camp
SsgtC, can you provide a few examples in the past one hundred years where an unopposed amphibious landing was repulsed?
The USMC invasion of Guadalcanal was clown college in the first week. The ship to shore logistics were a botched disaster, the USN Navy screen coverage got smashed in because it was inadequate to the task, and the carrier commander retreated while the amphibious force was still exposed. The USMC at Guadalcanal, in week one, proved no better than an improvised force - except that the average Marine was a magnificent fighter. But, by week two they were well on their way to the well oiled machine SsgtC is accustomed to today.
It doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.
Can a German destroyer even reach Iceland and back on one fuel load?
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.
Well first, you need a way to get the men there. Sorry to say, even OKW wouldn't consider a Rhine River barge for a trip to Iceland. Well, how about an ocean liner? Bremen and Europa can carry several thousand soldiers each and a lot of supplies in their cargo holds. They even their own cargo handling equipment. Hey, maybe we don't need those specialized ships after all?
The British already had a trained amphibious force. You might have heard of them? They're called the Royal Marines...Iceland had no airfields and was too far from Norway by sea. If taken by surprise it would be retaken in weeks, by a large RN ad hoc landing force. You think the British were going to sit around for a year or two training some amphibious warfare equivalent to the USMC rather than go in immediately to Iceland with what they have available, on the fly? Guess again.
Wouldn't successful simply mean Britain makes peace with Germany? It is my understanding Sealion was done with the purpose of forcing Britain to make peace, not to conquer it.
So I guess it could be successful if Britain realize Germany is really going to do it, there is nationwide panic and Churchill is either overthrown or sues for peace. This might be possible if Dynamo fails horribly.