Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

FBKampfer

Banned
Primarily a lack of effective guided munitions. Ships have transmitters that are powerful enough to jam the control signal.

And hitting a moving target is a hell of a job unless you've got the practice.


Submarines was mostly a numbers and effectiveness of escorts problem.
 
In hindsight I think it was a bit much mentioning missiles in the context of Sealion, but air and submarines (etc.) are still perfectly viable for anti-access/area denial strategy in modern times, can someone please explain why wouldn't the Germans be able to shut down the channel doing this, with aircraft for example (especially their rudimentary jet aircraft)? What constraints are there?

There is a strong underwater current in the English Channel that makes station keeping for U-boats, even electro-boats exceedingly difficult.

English channel tides and currents here:

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Jet aircraft of the time were somewhat new. Push instead of pull. No-one had quite figured out Dutch roll and certain other stability problems. Hence strafing and rocket attacks, the best and preferred methods available for dealing with difficult small fast targets like PT boats would be "difficult".

British radar could be tuned. Jamming has already been mentioned. The same currents that hobble the U-boats make minefield barriers "difficult".

Flying weather is a factor. Tides. Channel storms severely affect surface shipping. Beach shelves are terrible for nosing landing craft for unloading, much less for heavily burdened marine infantry to try to walk ashore. ^^^^^^^^^ Much of this is already mentioned by others. I'm simply condensing and repeating it so that one has a decent snapshot of what reality is. I'd rather tackle France going the other way.
 
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Look, Glenn. I don't mean to sound offensive or anything so if it comes across that way, I apologise. But this statement right here really shows how little you actually understand logistics or amphibious assualts. You cannot, and I can not stress this enough, improvise logistics on an amphibious assualt. Even if it's an unopposed landing. [You are garaunteed to fail if you try to.

SsgtC, can you provide a few examples in the past one hundred years where an unopposed amphibious landing was repulsed?

There is no calling up the quartermaster corps and saying, "hey, we just realised we need this, can you throw it on a truck please?" Everything is coming from a warehouse, to the dock, onto a ship, across an ocean, onto another dock (if you're luck, a beach if you're not), onto another truck and then finally reaching whoever needs the gear. You CAN'T improvise that.

An army logistics service acting in an amphibious role is not going to be as good as a specialist service, such as the USMC. As before, when such an improvised line of communication was tested by a British or even Anglo-American counterattack, it would collapse. A landing on Iceland would get ashore because it would be unopposed, but it would be hopeless in the long run.
 
Presumably this won't be a problem in a fanciful invasion of Iceland in the sense that Iceland doesn't have a military to defend itself. (On the other hand, if your cute little invasion convoy runs into the British picket ships in the North Sea, it's pretty much game over.) At that point, yes, you're absolutely correct that the decision to improvise the logistics -- a la Glenn -- is rapidly going to start biting you pretty hard.

So the underlined are the two key points. First, that Iceland doesn't have a military. Second, that the RN will sink an invasion convoy if it encounters it. Now, keeping in mind that Iceland is too far to hold, so the point we are talking about is purely theoretical. Do you think SsgtC is on solid ground to insist on extensive preparations because shore to ship to shore logistics is a difficult specialist occupation, or very dangerous ground, because to make extensive preparations will tip the game and increase the chances of an RN interception, while a more ad hoc attack is more likely to be a surprise?

I don't know why Glenn doesn't take this seriously, but I am quite sure that the Germans, having cut their teeth so to speak on invasions of small, neighbouring countries within a few days' brisk walking distance, had simply never had to worry about long-range logistics before.

I said that a landing would succeed because, you use your own words, "Iceland doesn't have a military to defend itself". I then added that this would be pointless because there were no airfields to operate from and the improvised nature of the logistics coupled with the long sea distances and inevitable and powerful British counterattack would rapidly cause any invasion to completely collapse, probably within weeks. How's any of that not taking the difficulties seriously?
 
Considering that US amphibious doctrine goes all the way back to Winfield Scott and his assault on Vera Cruz in the Mexican American war, are we even sure 20 years is enough for the Herr?

The USMC invasion of Guadalcanal was clown college in the first week. The ship to shore logistics were a botched disaster, the USN Navy screen coverage got smashed in because it was inadequate to the task, and the carrier commander retreated while the amphibious force was still exposed. The USMC at Guadalcanal, in week one, proved no better than an improvised force - except that the average Marine was a magnificent fighter. But, by week two they were well on their way to the well oiled machine SsgtC is accustomed to today.
 
So the underlined are the two key points. First, that Iceland doesn't have a military. Second, that the RN will sink an invasion convoy if it encounters it. Now, keeping in mind that Iceland is too far to hold, so the point we are talking about is purely theoretical. Do you think SsgtC is on solid ground to insist on extensive preparations because shore to ship to shore logistics is a difficult specialist occupation, or very dangerous ground, because to make extensive preparations will tip the game and increase the chances of an RN interception, while a more ad hoc attack is more likely to be a surprise?

You're right that they are two separate issues. On the interdiction point, assuming this is a small operation and the British don't realize it is happening, the chances of interception are presumably lower and essentially random. Of course, the bigger you make it, the more risk you take on. Setting aside the small but embarrassing losses to the infantry, one of the real problems for Germany is that this is a potentially one-way trip to a very distant, very low-value target for whatever naval assets they send as escorts.

Assuming that the German invasion of Iceland goes as smoothly as the British one, getting ashore and establishing their control will be easy. (I think this may be a stretch, but let's grant it.) However, they will then have to prepare to defend the island and establish civil control over it. I assume most Icelanders won't exactly be eagerly jumping in to lend a hand in this respect. Even just maintaining civil control will require some degree of flow back and forth, and preparing to defend the island, considerably more. I don't know precisely what cluster*** SSgtC is envisioning on the beaches, but I do severely doubt that Germany can maintain even a minor flow of supplies, which in turn makes them unable to defend the island when the British presumably decide to take it for themselves.

I said that a landing would succeed because, you use your own words, "Iceland doesn't have a military to defend itself". I then added that this would be pointless because there were no airfields to operate from and the improvised nature of the logistics coupled with the long sea distances and inevitable and powerful British counterattack would rapidly cause any invasion to completely collapse, probably within weeks. How's any of that not taking the difficulties seriously?

Hey, you were the one who started out by saying they could just improvise the logistics.

For what it's worth, this landing at least has an obvious comparison we're not discussing: the British invasion of Iceland. That one was incredibly badly organized and planned, notwithstanding Britain's apparent reputation for being able to do amphibious operations, but fortunately met no resistance. The British sent a Marine battalion, four cruisers, and two destroyers. This would be a dangerously large investment in military assets by the Germans for a point they couldn't hold anyway.

And the Marines were considered inadequate in retrospect and insufficient to hold the island so several thousand reinforcements were sent over. The Germans can't do that.
 

SsgtC

Banned
SsgtC, can you provide a few examples in the past one hundred years where an unopposed amphibious landing was repulsed?



An army logistics service acting in an amphibious role is not going to be as good as a specialist service, such as the USMC. As before, when such an improvised line of communication was tested by a British or even Anglo-American counterattack, it would collapse. A landing on Iceland would get ashore because it would be unopposed, but it would be hopeless in the long run.
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.

Let me sketch out to you what improvised logistics looks like for the Heer. Keep in mind, this is not the Marine Corps, who had a history of amphibious assaults and quite literally wrote the book on how to conduct them. The Marines already had standing Standard Operating Procedures for conducting an amphibious assault, and if need be, could improvise bassed off of standing procedure. The Heer does not have that. They need to make the whole thing up as they go. The Corps could base their decisions on what they know is ideally what is required and go, "close enough, it'll get the job done." The Heer can't. They have no idea what they ideally need. So let's look at "improvised" German Logistics.

Well first, you need a way to get the men there. Sorry to say, even OKW wouldn't consider a Rhine River barge for a trip to Iceland. Well, how about an ocean liner? Bremen and Europa can carry several thousand soldiers each and a lot of supplies in their cargo holds. They even their own cargo handling equipment. Hey, maybe we don't need those specialized ships after all?

Ok, so how do we get everyone ashore? Well, the ships have a lot of lifeboats, and each one can hold a reinforced rifle platoon. Sweet! I always knew those specialized Higgins Boats were overrated.

So now your men are ashore. The boats are even ferrying across additional supplies of food ammo and medicine. But now Gefrieter Johans Q Bumblefuck says to Feldwebel Schmidt, "Hey, this is great Feldwebel! When are they going to bring our heavy weapons across?" At this point, Feldwebel Schmidt puts his finger in the air, opens his mouth to tell Gerfrieter Bumblefuck to get back to work, then promptly shuts his mouth and walks off to give the Oberfeldwebel. Who has the same reaction. Who then goes and finds the Leutnant. Who finds the Hauptman. Who finds the Major. Who finds the Oberstleutnsnt. Who finds the Oberst. And so on and so forth until the whole thing lands on Kietel's desk. Who's quickly going to realize that, just maybe, they actually did need some of that specialized equipment after all.
 
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.

Let me sketch out to you what improvised logistics looks like for the Heer. Keep in mind, this is not the Marine Corps, who had a history of amphibious assaults and quite literally wrote the book on how to conduct them. The Marines already had standing Standard Operating Procedures for conducting an amphibious assault, and if need be, could improvise bassed off of standing procedure. The Heer does not have that. They need to make the whole thing up as they go. The Corps could base their decisions on what they know is ideally what is required and go, "close enough, it'll get the job done." The Heer can't. They have no idea what they ideally need. So let's look at "improvised" German Logistics.

Well first, you need a way to get the men there. Sorry to say, even OKW wouldn't consider a Rhine River barge for a trip to Iceland. Well, how about an ocean liner? Bremen and Europa can carry several thousand soldiers each and a lot of supplies in their cargo holds. They even their own cargo handling equipment. Hey, maybe we don't need those specialized ships after all?

Ok, so how do we get everyone ashore? Well, the ships have a lot of lifeboats, and each one can hold a reinforced rifle platoon. Sweet! I always knew those specialized Higgins Boats were overrated.

So now your men are ashore. The boats are even ferrying across additional supplies of food ammo and medicine. But now Gefrieter Johans Q Bumblefuck says to Feldwebel Schmidt, "Hey, this is great Feldwebel! When are they going to bring our heavy weapons across?" At this point, Feldwebel Schmidt puts his finger in the air, opens his mouth to tell Gerfrieter Bumblefuck to get back to work, then promptly shuts his mouth and walks off to give the Oberfeldwebel. Who has the same reaction. Who then goes and finds the Leutnant. Who finds the Hauptman. Who finds the Major. Who finds the Oberstleutnsnt. Who finds the Oberst. And so on and so forth until the whole thing lands on Kietel's desk. Who's quickly going to realize that, just maybe, they actually did need some of that specialized equipment after all.

It sure is thoughtful of the Germans, in this scenario, to load thousands of their best troops onto an undefended ocean liner and send them off on a one-way trip into British-controlled ocean.
 

SsgtC

Banned
It sure is thoughtful of the Germans, in this scenario, to load thousands of their best troops onto an undefended ocean liner and send them off on a one-way trip into British-controlled ocean.
The funny thing is, they'd have better odds of surviving if the British knew the Germans were preparing an amphibious operation. Because they would assume that the target was the UK, and deploy their fleet accordingly. That may actually increase the odds of the Germans reaching Iceland safely.

Edit: plus, the Germans planned to use liners in OTL Sealion anyway, so it's not really stretching things for them to do it here.
 
The funny thing is, they'd have better odds of surviving if the British knew the Germans were preparing an amphibious operation. Because they would assume that the target was the UK, and deploy their fleet accordingly. That may actually increase the odds of the Germans reaching Iceland safely.

Edit: plus, the Germans planned to use liners in OTL Sealion anyway, so it's not really stretching things for them to do it here.
It doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.

Can a German destroyer even reach Iceland and back on one fuel load?
 

SsgtC

Banned
It doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.

Can a German destroyer even reach Iceland and back on one fuel load?
I don't think so, no. Maybe if they can keep their speed down to economical cruising speed. Which renders the whole point moot since that drastically increases the odds they're sunk enroute. If the Germans tried doing this, Iceland basically becomes a self guarding POW camp
 
I don't think so, no. Maybe if they can keep their speed down to economical cruising speed. Which renders the whole point moot since that drastically increases the odds they're sunk enroute. If the Germans tried doing this, Iceland basically becomes a self guarding POW camp
That kind of scuppers this whole thing, then.
 
The USMC invasion of Guadalcanal was clown college in the first week. The ship to shore logistics were a botched disaster, the USN Navy screen coverage got smashed in because it was inadequate to the task, and the carrier commander retreated while the amphibious force was still exposed. The USMC at Guadalcanal, in week one, proved no better than an improvised force - except that the average Marine was a magnificent fighter. But, by week two they were well on their way to the well oiled machine SsgtC is accustomed to today.

I had a real good hard laugh.
 

hipper

Banned
It doesn't really matter. Whatever assets are sent on this trip aren't coming back, one way or another. Whether that's because they're sunk en route or in harbour in Iceland after the fact is the only question as it will affect POW costs for the Brits.

Can a German destroyer even reach Iceland and back on one fuel load?

German destroyers can’t make it to Narvik and back so getting to Iceland. May be a stretch
 
You're missing the entire point. Without proper logistics, either the invasion is never launched or it's defeated, even against an undefended shore, when the Invaders run out of beans and bullets. Which should be in a couple days. Week at the most.

You stated that an unopposed amphibious landing could fail. I asked you to provide some examples. In terms of the logistics to holding Iceland after landing, they were impossible. It did not matter whether the arrangements were ad hoc or not.

Well first, you need a way to get the men there. Sorry to say, even OKW wouldn't consider a Rhine River barge for a trip to Iceland. Well, how about an ocean liner? Bremen and Europa can carry several thousand soldiers each and a lot of supplies in their cargo holds. They even their own cargo handling equipment. Hey, maybe we don't need those specialized ships after all?

Iceland had no airfields and was too far from Norway by sea. If taken by surprise it would be retaken in weeks, by a large RN ad hoc landing force. You think the British were going to sit around for a year or two training some amphibious warfare equivalent to the USMC rather than go in immediately to Iceland with what they have available, on the fly? Guess again.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Iceland had no airfields and was too far from Norway by sea. If taken by surprise it would be retaken in weeks, by a large RN ad hoc landing force. You think the British were going to sit around for a year or two training some amphibious warfare equivalent to the USMC rather than go in immediately to Iceland with what they have available, on the fly? Guess again.
The British already had a trained amphibious force. You might have heard of them? They're called the Royal Marines...
 
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Wouldn't successful simply mean Britain makes peace with Germany? It is my understanding Sealion was done with the purpose of forcing Britain to make peace, not to conquer it.

So I guess it could be successful if Britain realize Germany is really going to do it, there is nationwide panic and Churchill is either overthrown or sues for peace. This might be possible if Dynamo fails horribly.
 
Wouldn't successful simply mean Britain makes peace with Germany? It is my understanding Sealion was done with the purpose of forcing Britain to make peace, not to conquer it.

So I guess it could be successful if Britain realize Germany is really going to do it, there is nationwide panic and Churchill is either overthrown or sues for peace. This might be possible if Dynamo fails horribly.

Best chance is naval siege; that is the U-boat campaign. Germany lacked the means to pull it off. So... I would suggest like those two famous Senators, Slim and Nunn, the chances for British surrender are...
 
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