Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

Doing a paratrooper assault to capture the Isle of Wright would accomplish little except put said three divisions into a meat grinder of gunfire. It was discussed in a different thread and I agree with them. The British would wear the occupiers down until they either surrendered or couldn't put up a fight. Keep in mind even if the RAF were defeated (temporarily as they would withdraw out of range of Luftwaffe aircraft) the british could park a ton of artillery near the island and shell it constantly. So no, to take the isle of wright and invade Britain later would be suicidal. The Germans would be forced to do it all at once.

So here is a possible PoD: The Germans wargame Sealion well before ww2, and they determine specialized landing craft are needed. So they do so and by mid-1940 the Germans possess a well equipped fleet of LC.

Then you must have these PoDs as well

1. Operation Dynamo fails, 300,000 British troops are captured at Dunkirk and little more than 30,000 escape (this alone might put Britain on the negotiating table). Perhaps this defeat also convinces Japan to launch an assault in the Pacific, thinning the RN in the process.
2. Germany gains (temporarily, as the RAF could withdraw if losses became to high) air superiority over the English Channel and Southern England.
3. Spain joins the Axis and captures Gibraltar. This allows the Regia Marina to operate in the Atlantic, and Mussolini must pledge assistance in ensuring Operation Sealion.

The best case scenario is once the Germans land, the British sue for peace. We must remember that the cursed sea mammal was not to conquer Britain, but to force them on the negotiating table. If Churchill remains in power, the British still fight on. If he is forced out, then the Brits throw the towel.

The worst case scenario is that they are driven back into the sea. This would not cripple the Wehrmacht, but be a great propaganda victory shattering the myth of Wehrmacht invincibility.

I'd say in this scenario even with said conditions met the probability of German victory is low, as they would have to beat the British before the RN can cut them off, but not impossible.

Also remember that people in an Alternate timeline might call the probability of German victory over France to be low, but IOTL superior tactics, luck, and inferior allied tactics lead to German victory over France.
 
Doing a paratrooper assault to capture the Isle of Wright would accomplish little except put said three divisions into a meat grinder of gunfire. It was discussed in a different thread and I agree with them. The British would wear the occupiers down until they either surrendered or couldn't put up a fight. Keep in mind even if the RAF were defeated (temporarily as they would withdraw out of range of Luftwaffe aircraft) the british could park a ton of artillery near the island and shell it constantly. So no, to take the isle of wright and invade Britain later would be suicidal. The Germans would be forced to do it all at once.

So here is a possible PoD: The Germans wargame Sealion well before ww2, and they determine specialized landing craft are needed. So they do so and by mid-1940 the Germans possess a well equipped fleet of LC.

Then you must have these PoDs as well

1. Operation Dynamo fails, 300,000 British troops are captured at Dunkirk and little more than 30,000 escape (this alone might put Britain on the negotiating table). Perhaps this defeat also convinces Japan to launch an assault in the Pacific, thinning the RN in the process.
2. Germany gains (temporarily, as the RAF could withdraw if losses became to high) air superiority over the English Channel and Southern England.
3. Spain joins the Axis and captures Gibraltar. This allows the Regia Marina to operate in the Atlantic, and Mussolini must pledge assistance in ensuring Operation Sealion.

The best case scenario is once the Germans land, the British sue for peace. We must remember that the cursed sea mammal was not to conquer Britain, but to force them on the negotiating table. If Churchill remains in power, the British still fight on. If he is forced out, then the Brits throw the towel.

The worst case scenario is that they are driven back into the sea. This would not cripple the Wehrmacht, but be a great propaganda victory shattering the myth of Wehrmacht invincibility.

I'd say in this scenario even with said conditions met the probability of German victory is low, as they would have to beat the British before the RN can cut them off, but not impossible.

Also remember that people in an Alternate timeline might call the probability of German victory over France to be low, but IOTL superior tactics, luck, and inferior allied tactics lead to German victory over France.

It just might be the case that one of the reasons the British had a small military corps and committed it so heavily to the continent was precisely because, in our timeline, the Germans did not have any amphibious capability and therefore England was effectively impregnable.

If, in contrast, Germany has an actual amphibious capability, the British just might take some extra precautions in advance too.

But maybe it won't matter. I believe there's a saying amongst military professionals that amphibious attacks are the easiest operations and defending against them are the hardest.
 
We look at Omaha Beach, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa, and we get the idea of the terrible price an entrenched enemy can inflict on invading forces. So IMO it's the opposite. Amphibious landing operations are one of the hardest military operations to do, and defending against them can be easy if you have proper defences, which the British did possess in mid-1940.

As someone mentioned earlier, what makes the dreaded sea mammal ASB is that it takes so many PoDs that you just don't get anywhere.
 
We look at Omaha Beach, Iwo Jima, and Okinawa, and we get the idea of the terrible price an entrenched enemy can inflict on invading forces. So IMO it's the opposite. Amphibious landing operations are one of the hardest military operations to do, and defending against them can be easy if you have proper defences, which the British did possess in mid-1940.
Sorry, that was sarcasm. The point -- as you'll well know from those examples -- is that the difficulty of adequately defending against an amphibious operation is trivial compared to the difficulty of actually carrying one out.

If Germany is actually capable of carrying out an amphibious operation, then the British will take defending southern England more seriously than they did in our timeline, when Germany manifestly didn't.

Omaha Beach will look like a cakewalk.
 
As someone mentioned earlier, what makes the dreaded sea mammal ASB is that it takes so many PoDs that you just don't get anywhere.

And yet the Sealionistas will continue to try to chip away at the edifice of logic and evidence, hoping to wear it down to the point that Sealion is a racing certainty.

Really, all the evidence you need is already on this board. Ýou just need to read back through the old threads. It's worth it because they are for the most part very entertaining.
 
And yet the Sealionistas will continue to try to chip away at the edifice of logic and evidence, hoping to wear it down to the point that Sealion is a racing certainty.

Really, all the evidence you need is already on this board. Ýou just need to read back through the old threads. It's worth it because they are for the most part very entertaining.

The thing is that reading accounts of the actual Sea Lion planning on the German side arguments between the Army and the Navy got every bit as heated as anything on here.

An obviously evil account from the CIA library
 
The thing is that reading accounts of the actual Sea Lion planning on the German side arguments between the Army and the Navy got every bit as heated as anything on here.

An obviously evil account from the CIA library

Probably becuase they knew they were building a house of cards that could collapse and bury them all.

Terrific link, btw. Talking about Autumn 1939...

"No Gorman organisation had concerned itself previously with any deliberations or preparatory thoughts on the possibility of an invasion of England."

Which only adds to my conviction that it was run up on the back of a fag packet and that any earlier preparations would have scuppered the invasion of France.
 
Probably becuase they knew they were building a house of cards that could collapse and bury them all.

Terrific link, btw. Talking about Autumn 1939...

"No Gorman organisation had concerned itself previously with any deliberations or preparatory thoughts on the possibility of an invasion of England."

Which only adds to my conviction that it was run up on the back of a fag packet and that any earlier preparations would have scuppered the invasion of France.
On the contrary, surely it proves that amphibious operations aren't that hard and all you need is a fearless heart, some solid infantry training, and a good set of jackboots.

Or something like that.

Obviously, from any rational person's perspective, planning the invasion of France was exactly what the Germans should have been doing. It's kind of pointless planning an invasion of Britain to be launched from a hostile foreign power's ports.

Honestly, as I said before in this thread, and elsewhere, surely there are more close-run moments in history that would be easier to push this way and that from an alternate history perspective before taking on an impossible task like invading Britain in 1940. Even halting the invasion of France in 1940 surely is more amenable than the task of making Sea Lion work.
 
This is slightly tangential to the Unmentionable Sea Mammal, but I didn't want to start a new thread for it because I'm lazy...

Anyway, on a scale of 1 to WTF, how ASB is a Nazi invasion of Iceland in 1940? (Before the British occupation, obviously.)
 

Ian_W

Banned
This is slightly tangential to the Unmentionable Sea Mammal, but I didn't want to start a new thread for it because I'm lazy...

Anyway, on a scale of 1 to WTF, how ASB is a Nazi invasion of Iceland in 1940? (Before the British occupation, obviously.)

They could certainly land some Brandenbergers by rubber boat from U-boats, and that counts as an invasion.

But holding it ? Or doing anything useful with it ? Or getting more supplies to their garrison ?

ASB.
 
They could certainly land some Brandenbergers by rubber boat from U-boats, and that counts as an invasion.

But holding it ? Or doing anything useful with it ? Or getting more supplies to their garrison ?

ASB.

Fair 'nuff. Thanks!
 
This is slightly tangential to the Unmentionable Sea Mammal, but I didn't want to start a new thread for it because I'm lazy...

Anyway, on a scale of 1 to WTF, how ASB is a Nazi invasion of Iceland in 1940? (Before the British occupation, obviously.)

the issue of resupply already mentioned, the first issue would be it would need to occur simultaneously with Norway and the KM did not have the fleet.
 
On the bright side, it's not heavily defended either on land or sea.

This is slightly tangential to the Unmentionable Sea Mammal, but I didn't want to start a new thread for it because I'm lazy...

Anyway, on a scale of 1 to WTF, how ASB is a Nazi invasion of Iceland in 1940? (Before the British occupation, obviously.)
Easy in the sense that compared to Britain Iceland is effectively defenseless.

That said, it's a long way and Britain might decide to interdict German shipping. Plus, can Rhine river barges reach Iceland??
 
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Plus, can Rhine river barges reach Iceland??




Now put something like THIS

blog276.jpg


In those seas.

That'll answer your question.

It would be more merciful to line up the crews and any soldiers you put on them and then either machine gun them all or have them mauled to death by dogs than expect that ship to survive what the Atlantic can be like and then have soldiers and crew freeze to death or drown.
 
]varyar said:

This is slightly tangential to the Unmentionable Sea Mammal, but I didn't want to start a new thread for it because I'm lazy...

Anyway, on a scale of 1 to WTF, how ASB is a Nazi invasion of Iceland in 1940? (Before the British occupation, obviously.)

I've looked at it.

The chances are zero. Actually worse than the dead circus performing sea mammal, we've discussed.

Reasons?

a. No sea based air power. (The KM needs Task Force 58. Not gonna happen.)
b. No sustainable two division size sea lift, nor trained marines. (Marines are what is missing at Omaha, hence that shambles.)
c. No survivable sea line of communications.
d. Not only the Royal Navy, but the USN. This Iceland invasion is an automatic tripwire for the Americans.
e. But most importantly, no through the surf and over the beach sustainable landing or supply transfer capability at all. NONE. Not even the pretense of one. LOGISTICS.

One of the things I have not mentioned is that over the beach operations in an open ocean surf ^^^^^^^^^ (Channel sea mammal) is a skill the Herr does not have. The lowly Higgins boat and its British and Japanese equivalents are absolute material essentials. And an F-lighter, this "thing" , (wrong size and not able to be davited from a freighter and too complicated to be cheap and expendable as a "ship's barge") is totally unsuited for over the surf in the North Atlantic.

For more on German landing barges see here.
 
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Deleted member 94680

1. Operation Dynamo fails, 300,000 British troops are captured at Dunkirk and little more than 30,000 escape (this alone might put Britain on the negotiating table). Perhaps this defeat also convinces Japan to launch an assault in the Pacific, thinning the RN in the process.

I doubt it. IIRC initial expectations of Dynamo were to save 30,000 troops - the eventual 300,000 were far more than expected and a massive 'bonus'. As pointed out earlier in the thread, the troops saved from Dynamo were not the only soldiers available to the British.

UPDATE: "Initial plans called for the recovery of 45,000 men from the BEF within two days, at which time German troops were expected to block further evacuation. Only 25,000 men escaped during this period, including 7,669 on the first day." Wiki article on Dunkirk Evacuation.

If that is to be believed; 30,000 of 45,000 is not 'that much' of disaster.

Britain has faced disasters before, the military defeat of the British Empire would take more than losing 300,000 men it seems.
 
I doubt it. IIRC initial expectations of Dynamo were to save 30,000 troops - the eventual 300,000 were far more than expected and a massive 'bonus'. As pointed out earlier in the thread, the troops saved from Dynamo were not the only soldiers available to the British.

UPDATE: "Initial plans called for the recovery of 45,000 men from the BEF within two days, at which time German troops were expected to block further evacuation. Only 25,000 men escaped during this period, including 7,669 on the first day." Wiki article on Dunkirk Evacuation.

If that is to be believed; 30,000 of 45,000 is not 'that much' of disaster.

Britain has faced disasters before, the military defeat of the British Empire would take more than losing 300,000 men it seems.
Setting aside the what if element of it, the relevant lesson to draw from Dunkirk is that seapower is -- surprisingly, apparently -- essential to carrying out operations at sea.

What happens to the Dunkirk evacuation if all the little civilian boats milling around are still doing their job, but the destroyers, instead of providing heavy lift capability, are all German and determined to stop the evacuation? Yet occasionally some would have us believe, in effect, that the evacuation could have been carried out under such circumstances.

Why would Britain surrender if they lost most of their army at Dunkirk? It is a small army, by design, because it isn't the country's main line of defence. I find it hard to imagine a great power, any great power, surrendering while their main defences are intact and the enemy has not even reached their border.

As for whether Rhine barges could reach Iceland, this was a rhetorical question, I can assure you. I'm not under any illusions about their limitations. But how else are the Germans going to move their invasion force to Iceland?
 
As for whether Rhine barges could reach Iceland, this was a rhetorical question, I can assure you. I'm not under any illusions about their limitations. But how else are the Germans going to move their invasion force to Iceland?

The same way they got their invasion force to Norway?

I'm not arguing for the general plausibility of an invasion of Iceland - I accept the arguments against it that have been put forth here - but the Germans didn't use Rhine barges to invade Norway. If they decide Iceland is the more important target than Norway for whatever insane reason, they do have the means to at least put a couple thousand troops into something seaworthy, no?
 

SsgtC

Banned
The same way they got their invasion force to Norway?

I'm not arguing for the general plausibility of an invasion of Iceland - I accept the arguments against it that have been put forth here - but the Germans didn't use Rhine barges to invade Norway. If they decide Iceland is the more important target than Norway for whatever insane reason, they do have the means to at least put a couple thousand troops into something seaworthy, no?
Probably. They then promptly watch those couple thousand troops drown when the Royal Navy sinks their transport. And if, by some miracle, they reach Iceland intact, they then get to watch them starve/die in battle as they have absolutely no way to resupply or reinforce them.
 
The same way they got their invasion force to Norway?

I'm not arguing for the general plausibility of an invasion of Iceland - I accept the arguments against it that have been put forth here - but the Germans didn't use Rhine barges to invade Norway. If they decide Iceland is the more important target than Norway for whatever insane reason, they do have the means to at least put a couple thousand troops into something seaworthy, no?
Even if "a couple thousand" troops can conquer Iceland, I don't see how they could hold it.

And a large portion of the naval ships that assisted with the invasion of Norway won't be available for the attack on Iceland on account of being underwater and/or awaiting repairs.
 
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