Doing a paratrooper assault to capture the Isle of Wright would accomplish little except put said three divisions into a meat grinder of gunfire. It was discussed in a different thread and I agree with them. The British would wear the occupiers down until they either surrendered or couldn't put up a fight. Keep in mind even if the RAF were defeated (temporarily as they would withdraw out of range of Luftwaffe aircraft) the british could park a ton of artillery near the island and shell it constantly. So no, to take the isle of wright and invade Britain later would be suicidal. The Germans would be forced to do it all at once.
So here is a possible PoD: The Germans wargame Sealion well before ww2, and they determine specialized landing craft are needed. So they do so and by mid-1940 the Germans possess a well equipped fleet of LC.
Then you must have these PoDs as well
1. Operation Dynamo fails, 300,000 British troops are captured at Dunkirk and little more than 30,000 escape (this alone might put Britain on the negotiating table). Perhaps this defeat also convinces Japan to launch an assault in the Pacific, thinning the RN in the process.
2. Germany gains (temporarily, as the RAF could withdraw if losses became to high) air superiority over the English Channel and Southern England.
3. Spain joins the Axis and captures Gibraltar. This allows the Regia Marina to operate in the Atlantic, and Mussolini must pledge assistance in ensuring Operation Sealion.
The best case scenario is once the Germans land, the British sue for peace. We must remember that the cursed sea mammal was not to conquer Britain, but to force them on the negotiating table. If Churchill remains in power, the British still fight on. If he is forced out, then the Brits throw the towel.
The worst case scenario is that they are driven back into the sea. This would not cripple the Wehrmacht, but be a great propaganda victory shattering the myth of Wehrmacht invincibility.
I'd say in this scenario even with said conditions met the probability of German victory is low, as they would have to beat the British before the RN can cut them off, but not impossible.
Also remember that people in an Alternate timeline might call the probability of German victory over France to be low, but IOTL superior tactics, luck, and inferior allied tactics lead to German victory over France.
So here is a possible PoD: The Germans wargame Sealion well before ww2, and they determine specialized landing craft are needed. So they do so and by mid-1940 the Germans possess a well equipped fleet of LC.
Then you must have these PoDs as well
1. Operation Dynamo fails, 300,000 British troops are captured at Dunkirk and little more than 30,000 escape (this alone might put Britain on the negotiating table). Perhaps this defeat also convinces Japan to launch an assault in the Pacific, thinning the RN in the process.
2. Germany gains (temporarily, as the RAF could withdraw if losses became to high) air superiority over the English Channel and Southern England.
3. Spain joins the Axis and captures Gibraltar. This allows the Regia Marina to operate in the Atlantic, and Mussolini must pledge assistance in ensuring Operation Sealion.
The best case scenario is once the Germans land, the British sue for peace. We must remember that the cursed sea mammal was not to conquer Britain, but to force them on the negotiating table. If Churchill remains in power, the British still fight on. If he is forced out, then the Brits throw the towel.
The worst case scenario is that they are driven back into the sea. This would not cripple the Wehrmacht, but be a great propaganda victory shattering the myth of Wehrmacht invincibility.
I'd say in this scenario even with said conditions met the probability of German victory is low, as they would have to beat the British before the RN can cut them off, but not impossible.
Also remember that people in an Alternate timeline might call the probability of German victory over France to be low, but IOTL superior tactics, luck, and inferior allied tactics lead to German victory over France.