WARNING: THIS DOES NOT DISPLAY A COUNTERFACTUAL SCENARIO!
This thread is created with the purpose of discussing a non-ASB successful Operation Sea Lion.
So what must happen to create a non-ASB Sea Lion?
1. Operation Dynamo fails, and 300,000 BEF troops are captured. The air force and parts of the Navy are gutted to try and desperately raise an army to stop the Germans (assuming Churchill rallies the nation to fight on still).
2. Germany must win the Battle of Britain in the air (maybe possible with better coordination, IDK cause I'm not a historian)
3. The Germans (somehow) decisively defeat the Home fleet. This may be helped if we assume the surface fleet is not catastrophically destroyed invading Norway in 1940. Also might be possible if we give the KM 2 Graf Zeppelin Aircraft Carriers with lobbying from Raeder.
Then there are a couple of other issues:
4. British plans included shelling the beaches with Phosgene and Mustard Gas, and there is no reason why they wouldn't do so should the Germans decide to invade
5. There were many stop-lines created with tank traps and fortifications. These defensive lines were hastily assembled however.
6. British Auxiliary units were secretly created to conduct partisan resistance. These units had relatively short supplies and were not expected to be operational for more than a few weeks.
Let's have a good discussion in the comments and be civilized. Tell me about what else awaits the Germans (or aids them in their Sea Mammal adventures) because I'm not a historian.
(I can already hear the AH Gods telling me that it is always going to be ASB.)
1. If this had happened then there would have been political consequences for the British government - a new government might have been formed that offered terms, so no invasion necessary. Even when this didn't happen Churchill and the cabinet discussed the surrender option. In any case it iis not necessary if the invasion is launched in 1940, or not later than May 1941, due to the state of the troops in England in 1940, their leadership, equipment, organisation, doctrine, and their distribution (the last meaning only the equivalent of two divisions defending the proposed invasion beaches). An early 1941 invasion would have been possible if the German navy's proposals had been carried out - I have previously posted all the pros and cons of such an invasion on this forum (you can read them here https://www.boardgamegeek.com/file/download/rxhuk0te2c/Britain_Stands_Alone_Scenarios.pdf).
2. There are lots of ways this could have happened that are not ASB. For instance, you didn't have to bomb the radar stations, they could be jammed, or planes could fly "under the radar". The receiving towers were made of wood so they were vulnerable to bombing but the operators were in wooden huts and so was their power supply. They had no backup power supply so bombing the or on-site power supply or cutting the connection to the grid was sufficient (these things did happen and knocked out the radar station for quite a while. The Vetnor station was knocked out for months).
4. No - British plans included spraying the beaches with gas and bombing them, not shelling them, as the shells had been lost in France. There were some Livens projectors available so a limited bombardment could be mounted. Spraying had to be done before the Germans arrived if done by the Bulk Contamination units or from the air. Shells did become available later so could be used in a 1941 invasion. Churchill and Brooke seemed to agree on the use of gas but it would have required a cabinet decision to do it surely and its use would have back-fired on the British, whose cities would no longer be a final panzer-proof refuge but a death trap for civilians. The Germans could use nerve gases that were far more toxic in smaller concentrations than the gases in the British arsenal.
5. The stop lines were only about one pillbox deep so they could easily be penetrated and attacked from the rear - and there weren't enough men to man them. They were speed bumps that might have done their job of slowing down a German panzer thrust.
6. The major function of the Auxiliary units was to prevent complacency and acceptance of a new regime in the British population, by causing the Germans to commit reprisals. But that would have happened anyway if the Germans had carried out their crazy racial (i.e. baby making) and slave labour plans. If the Germans had started removing all men of military age then maybe there wouldn't be any left to be auxiliaries.