Beating a Dead Sea Mammal: How can a non-ASB Operation Sea Lion thread be created?

WARNING: THIS DOES NOT DISPLAY A COUNTERFACTUAL SCENARIO!

This thread is created with the purpose of discussing a non-ASB successful Operation Sea Lion.

So what must happen to create a non-ASB Sea Lion?

1. Operation Dynamo fails, and 300,000 BEF troops are captured. The air force and parts of the Navy are gutted to try and desperately raise an army to stop the Germans (assuming Churchill rallies the nation to fight on still).

2. Germany must win the Battle of Britain in the air (maybe possible with better coordination, IDK cause I'm not a historian)

3. The Germans (somehow) decisively defeat the Home fleet. This may be helped if we assume the surface fleet is not catastrophically destroyed invading Norway in 1940. Also might be possible if we give the KM 2 Graf Zeppelin Aircraft Carriers with lobbying from Raeder.

Then there are a couple of other issues:
4. British plans included shelling the beaches with Phosgene and Mustard Gas, and there is no reason why they wouldn't do so should the Germans decide to invade
5. There were many stop-lines created with tank traps and fortifications. These defensive lines were hastily assembled however.
6. British Auxiliary units were secretly created to conduct partisan resistance. These units had relatively short supplies and were not expected to be operational for more than a few weeks.

Let's have a good discussion in the comments and be civilized. Tell me about what else awaits the Germans (or aids them in their Sea Mammal adventures) because I'm not a historian.

(I can already hear the AH Gods telling me that it is always going to be ASB.)

1. If this had happened then there would have been political consequences for the British government - a new government might have been formed that offered terms, so no invasion necessary. Even when this didn't happen Churchill and the cabinet discussed the surrender option. In any case it iis not necessary if the invasion is launched in 1940, or not later than May 1941, due to the state of the troops in England in 1940, their leadership, equipment, organisation, doctrine, and their distribution (the last meaning only the equivalent of two divisions defending the proposed invasion beaches). An early 1941 invasion would have been possible if the German navy's proposals had been carried out - I have previously posted all the pros and cons of such an invasion on this forum (you can read them here https://www.boardgamegeek.com/file/download/rxhuk0te2c/Britain_Stands_Alone_Scenarios.pdf).

2. There are lots of ways this could have happened that are not ASB. For instance, you didn't have to bomb the radar stations, they could be jammed, or planes could fly "under the radar". The receiving towers were made of wood so they were vulnerable to bombing but the operators were in wooden huts and so was their power supply. They had no backup power supply so bombing the or on-site power supply or cutting the connection to the grid was sufficient (these things did happen and knocked out the radar station for quite a while. The Vetnor station was knocked out for months).

4. No - British plans included spraying the beaches with gas and bombing them, not shelling them, as the shells had been lost in France. There were some Livens projectors available so a limited bombardment could be mounted. Spraying had to be done before the Germans arrived if done by the Bulk Contamination units or from the air. Shells did become available later so could be used in a 1941 invasion. Churchill and Brooke seemed to agree on the use of gas but it would have required a cabinet decision to do it surely and its use would have back-fired on the British, whose cities would no longer be a final panzer-proof refuge but a death trap for civilians. The Germans could use nerve gases that were far more toxic in smaller concentrations than the gases in the British arsenal.

5. The stop lines were only about one pillbox deep so they could easily be penetrated and attacked from the rear - and there weren't enough men to man them. They were speed bumps that might have done their job of slowing down a German panzer thrust.

6. The major function of the Auxiliary units was to prevent complacency and acceptance of a new regime in the British population, by causing the Germans to commit reprisals. But that would have happened anyway if the Germans had carried out their crazy racial (i.e. baby making) and slave labour plans. If the Germans had started removing all men of military age then maybe there wouldn't be any left to be auxiliaries.
 
5. The stop lines were only about one pillbox deep so they could easily be penetrated and attacked from the rear - and there weren't enough men to man them. They were speed bumps that might have done their job of slowing down a German panzer thrust.

Are these panzers going to fly across the channel, or swim across?

Nope. ^^^^^^^^^^ I think I'll let the sea mammal die on the beach due to logistics failures.

Pretty sure this was my original point before silly season began. I'm happy to close with that if that's the consensus.
 
The Germans managed to maintain ten divisions by air supply in the Demyansk and other pockets over the winter of 1941/1942. So maybe the following is a plausible scenario. This is is only put forward to provide a discussion point, and is not meant to be taken too seriously.

1) The Germans capture the British Expeditionary force at Dunkirk
2) Immediately after the Fall of France. the Germans launch a paratroop assault on the Isle of Wight, capture it, and garrison it with the equivalent of three divisions. They then use air-supply supply it at night using the X Gerat system, thus rendering losses to fighter interception negligible.
3) Based on what happened at Demyansk, the Germans can not only supply their garrison, but can air-transport enough supplies in to the Isle of Wight to start building up a stockpile of supplies to support an invasion by a larger force at a later time.
4) The Germans deploy their entire U boat fleet in the Channel, and with this and consistent air attacks, wear down the British fleet during day time.
5) The Germans, protected by the Solent, the impotence of the British Army due to its recent defeat, and fighter sweeps during the day time, maintain their garrison on the Isle of Wight, and build up their stockpile of supplies.
6) the Germans launch their main attack across the Channel, and the first wave lands between Bournemouth and Bognor Regis. The stream of supplies from the Isle of Wight stockpile maintains their assault, as they not dependent on an easily interdicted supply route across the Channel.
 
The Germans managed to maintain ten divisions by air supply in the Demyansk and other pockets over the winter of 1941/1942. So maybe the following is a plausible scenario. This is is only put forward to provide a discussion point, and is not meant to be taken too seriously.

1) The Germans capture the British Expeditionary force at Dunkirk
2) Immediately after the Fall of France. the Germans launch a paratroop assault on the Isle of Wight, capture it, and garrison it with the equivalent of three divisions. They then use air-supply supply it at night using the X Gerat system, thus rendering losses to fighter interception negligible.
3) Based on what happened at Demyansk, the Germans can not only supply their garrison, but can air-transport enough supplies in to the Isle of Wight to start building up a stockpile of supplies to support an invasion by a larger force at a later time.
4) The Germans deploy their entire U boat fleet in the Channel, and with this and consistent air attacks, wear down the British fleet during day time.
5) The Germans, protected by the Solent, the impotence of the British Army due to its recent defeat, and fighter sweeps during the day time, maintain their garrison on the Isle of Wight, and build up their stockpile of supplies.
6) the Germans launch their main attack across the Channel, and the first wave lands between Bournemouth and Bognor Regis. The stream of supplies from the Isle of Wight stockpile maintains their assault, as they not dependent on an easily interdicted supply route across the Channel.

I don't know that area too well. What is the flying weather like?

Also, how good is the floatation along the English coast? Because if you can lay track and "float" a British 38 cm railroad gun pair or a four gun battery on opposite shore, I do that and start shelling immediately. It's in artillery range. And once the German supply dumps are on fire and blown up, I go over, pay a visit, and bag 3 divisions worth of them. Thank you, OKH for your brilliant staff-work!
 
I don't know that area too well. What is the flying weather like?

Also, how good is the floatation along the English coast? Because if you can lay track and "float" a British 38 cm railroad gun pair or a four gun battery on opposite shore, I do that and start shelling immediately. It's in artillery range. And once the German supply dumps are on fire and blown up, I go over, pay a visit, and bag 3 divisions worth of them. Thank you, OKH for your brilliant staff-work!


Are railway guns really going to have the accuracy and destructive power to do all that? And without inviting attention from the Luftwaffe?
 
I suppose if the Germans stored all their supplies on the beach or in an open field with s great big sign next to them saying "German supply depot here" then you may be right

That is just about what was proposed with the Isle of Wight scheme. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 
Railway guns? How about half a dozen destroyers parked in Portsmouth harbour emptying their magazines onto the Isle of Wight. Maybe throw in some cruisers or even Revenge which is parked in Devonport doing nothing. Or will the Royal Navy just sit around with their thumbs up their arses?

"Oh no, we couldn't drop sevral hundred 15 inch shells on their heads, wouldn't be sporting dont'cha know."
 
As folks have said to basically make the Unmentionable Pinniped happen, basically 3 things need to happen.

1 - Magic and/or devine/satanic intervention to get the Nazi's have the capacity to do the invasion (ships, transports etc etc etc)

2 - An en mass scuttling of the RN for no good reason.

3 - huge changes in the time lines, rationa nazi leadership and many many more changes, so much that the result isn't anything like WW2 and the Nazis are not Nazi's any more.

Really to make it happen with what the Germans had and what the British had, its one hell of a juggling match, and would probably require significant amounts of amazing luck on the Nazi's side combined with gross stupidity on the English side to the point that they are running their ships aground. Several truckloads of handwavium and 'because' and even then...even then its not going to be easy.
 
Railway guns? How about half a dozen destroyers parked in Portsmouth harbour emptying their magazines onto the Isle of Wight. Maybe throw in some cruisers or even Revenge which is parked in Devonport doing nothing. Or will the Royal Navy just sit around with their thumbs up their arses?

"Oh no, we couldn't drop sevral hundred 15 inch shells on their heads, wouldn't be sporting dont'cha know."

The Royal Navy parked in Portsmouth harbour. What a beautiful target for the Luftwaffe, particularly now they have a forward base mere minutes away. British 15 inch shells raining down on the British citizens of Ventnor would no doubt do wonders for British morale.
 
Well that certainly all sounds very plausible and realistic and not at all likely to fail. You gentlemen have convinced me! A small garrison with a big warehouse encamped a few miles from a major naval base is exactly the way to start the invasion of Britain!
 

nbcman

Donor
The Royal Navy parked in Portsmouth harbour. What a beautiful target for the Luftwaffe, particularly now they have a forward base mere minutes away. British 15 inch shells raining down on the British citizens of Ventnor would no doubt do wonders for British morale.
I didn't know Dr Forczyk had an account on AH.com.

EDIT: Here is a thread which discussed the Isle of Wight gambit. If the Germans were able to invade the Isle of Wight, they could have invaded Britain.
 
Last edited:
The Royal Navy parked in Portsmouth harbour. What a beautiful target for the Luftwaffe, particularly now they have a forward base mere minutes away. British 15 inch shells raining down on the British citizens of Ventnor would no doubt do wonders for British morale.

Now I want to see you try and take off in a laden He 111 from a residential street.
 
One: Land based artillery can be stabilized with less yaw pitch and roll than even the best battleship. Pinpoint accuracy and pre-registered fires are doable blind off firing tables. You cannot do that with naval gunfire. It has to be directed in before fire for effect.
Two: Ferrying shells to the piece to be served is easier. Once the ship's magazines are empty she has to reload. RR gun, just send up another flatcar full of shells
Three: If the LW nails battery Herbert, just patch the rails and truck in battery George. Resume fun upon the gun.
Four: The RN can be shooting at better things, like the Twins and Le Havre or Dakar.
Five: Why should the British army be sitting on their duffs, morose, when they can have joy and frolic a bit?
Six: Just looked up channel climate for that locale. Lousy for dive bombing. BEAUTIFUL for siege mortars; nice big 12 inch BLR coast defense gun siege mortars.
Seven: The residents of Wight better learn how to swim for it.
 
The Royal Navy parked in Portsmouth harbour. What a beautiful target for the Luftwaffe, particularly now they have a forward base mere minutes away. British 15 inch shells raining down on the British citizens of Ventnor would no doubt do wonders for British morale.

A forward base under naval gunfire from half a dozen destroyers. Try taking off from that moonscape in a loaded bomber.
 

hipper

Banned
The Germans managed to maintain ten divisions by air supply in the Demyansk and other pockets over the winter of 1941/1942. So maybe the following is a plausible scenario. This is is only put forward to provide a discussion point, and is not meant to be taken too seriously.

1) The Germans capture the British Expeditionary force at Dunkirk
2) Immediately after the Fall of France. the Germans launch a paratroop assault on the Isle of Wight, capture it, and garrison it with the equivalent of three divisions. They then use air-supply supply it at night using the X Gerat system, thus rendering losses to fighter interception negligible.
3) Based on what happened at Demyansk, the Germans can not only supply their garrison, but can air-transport enough supplies in to the Isle of Wight to start building up a stockpile of supplies to support an invasion by a larger force at a later time.
4) The Germans deploy their entire U boat fleet in the Channel, and with this and consistent air attacks, wear down the British fleet during day time.
5) The Germans, protected by the Solent, the impotence of the British Army due to its recent defeat, and fighter sweeps during the day time, maintain their garrison on the Isle of Wight, and build up their stockpile of supplies.
6) the Germans launch their main attack across the Channel, and the first wave lands between Bournemouth and Bognor Regis. The stream of supplies from the Isle of Wight stockpile maintains their assault, as they not dependent on an easily interdicted supply route across the Channel.

You missed out defeating the RAF ...
 
Top