Bay of the Pigs....worked?

Sorry if this have been asked before, i'm new here. Anywho....

What if the Bay of Pigs was sucessful? The Cuban Exiles manged to take over Cuba? Would they have had a lot of trouble beyond the beachs? What would the reactions be to the world? Any Warsaw Pact intervention later down the road?
 

Baskilisk

Banned
This is something I've always wondered about. I'm sure they had a very small chance of success, but if somehow they did succeed they'd get significant US backing, and there's nothing really the Warsaw Pact can do other than fund the communist insurgents there. I'm sure though eventually there'd be another Batista kinda guy who'd put Cuba on the path to another revolution.
 
I suspect the US would have gotten involved, one way or another, with the new regime, maybe trying to keep it democratic, in order to keep another Batista out of power, so as no other Castros would start a guerilla movement up in the Sierra Maestra. Having gotten rid of one communist dictator, they would be awfully keen to make sure it never happened again. I can even see some sort of limited Marshall Plan for the island, the aim being to raise standards of living for the Cuban poor, to remove the temptation to support another Marxist leader.
 

Baskilisk

Banned
So, it would be something like Revoltion, Communit Rule for 2 years, Revoltion, Democray for 2 years, so on and so on?
I think it'd be more like this:
1961: Bay of Pigs
1961-1962: Cuban civil war
1963: Pro-American dictator controls Cuba
1967: Dictator is very unpopular, attempted coups by communist revolutionaries
1972: Drawing inspiration from the Che and Castro's revolutions, as well as Soviet funds, communists kill the President/Dictator and march on Havana
1972-1975: Cuban civil war, each side getting considerable funds from the Superpowers. The American side is clearly doomed, despite receiving much more funds.
1976: Communist rule in Cuba
1977: Miami the largest Cuban city in the world, followed by New York and Havana.

What's next is beyond me.
 
I suspect the US would have gotten involved, one way or another, with the new regime, maybe trying to keep it democratic, in order to keep another Batista out of power, so as no other Castros would start a guerilla movement up in the Sierra Maestra. Having gotten rid of one communist dictator, they would be awfully keen to make sure it never happened again. I can even see some sort of limited Marshall Plan for the island, the aim being to raise standards of living for the Cuban poor, to remove the temptation to support another Marxist leader.
Ha! Benevolence and enough foresight to accept that democracy and good conditions would be a better deterrent to communists than ruthless repression? Not going to happen in the Western Hemisphere: they're going to prop up dictator after dictator, they're going to end up killing tens of thousands of Cubans, and Cuba will be another shit-hole in the Caribbean. The communists will continue to fight on, and Dictator "Bob" is going to round them up and kill them, imposing a reign of terror.

This probably won't end until at least the late 80s.
 
Ha! Benevolence and enough foresight to accept that democracy and good conditions would be a better deterrent to communists than ruthless repression? Not going to happen in the Western Hemisphere: they're going to prop up dictator after dictator, they're going to end up killing tens of thousands of Cubans, and Cuba will be another shit-hole in the Caribbean. The communists will continue to fight on, and Dictator "Bob" is going to round them up and kill them, imposing a reign of terror.

This probably won't end until at least the late 80s.

They did it in Germany and Japan, so why can't they do it in Cuba? There were only 6 million people on the island back then, compared to 70 million in Germany, plus Cuba is a lot closer to home. And they seriously don't want the commies back in there, so I'm betting Uncle Sam does all he can to steer the place towards democratic reform. Who knows, maybe it will even butterfly away JFK's assasination.
 

Deleted member 5719

They did it in Germany and Japan, so why can't they do it in Cuba?

Because democracy was only considered valid in Latin America if non-Socialists won. The US incited the overthrow of democratically elected leaders in Chile and Guatemala, and threatened to continue supporting the Contras in Nicaragua unless the people voted for Violeta Chamorro. In the rest of the continent they preferred to support millitary strongmen than risk elections that might bring leftists to power.

They also supported the apartheid regime in South Africa, withdrawing that support only when the fall of the Berlin wall made the Afrikaaners an embarassment. There is also evidence that the US subverted Italian elections to keep the communists out, and conspired with the colonels in Greece. Then we have Indonesia... 100,000 dead? 200,000? In Suaharto/Kissinger's coup.

The US's interest in democracy was a product of the fall of the Berlin wall, up to that point developing countries were not permited free elections if the wrong side was going to win.
 
I think it'd be more like this:
1961: Bay of Pigs
1961-1962: Cuban civil war
1963: Pro-American dictator controls Cuba
1967: Dictator is very unpopular, attempted coups by communist revolutionaries
1972: Drawing inspiration from the Che and Castro's revolutions, as well as Soviet funds, communists kill the President/Dictator and march on Havana
1972-1975: Cuban civil war, each side getting considerable funds from the Superpowers. The American side is clearly doomed, despite receiving much more funds.
1976: Communist rule in Cuba
1977: Miami the largest Cuban city in the world, followed by New York and Havana.

What's next is beyond me.

I agree, but I think the American side would win. I only think this because the USSR could get practically no aid to the Cuban communists through the American fleet.
 

MacCaulay

Banned
Sorry if this have been asked before, i'm new here. Anywho....

What if the Bay of Pigs was sucessful? The Cuban Exiles manged to take over Cuba? Would they have had a lot of trouble beyond the beachs? What would the reactions be to the world? Any Warsaw Pact intervention later down the road?

Well, one reason some folks believe it wasn't successful was because Kennedy was a bit more unwilling than Eisenhower to use cloak and dagger stuff. And the Bay of Pigs, which was by and large fomented in the Eisenhower Administration, was very much in the "dagger" range.

Eisenhower's original plan envisioned direct strikes flown by B-52s against the beach defenses, as well as hits against the Cuban air force on the ground just prior to the attack. They were also going to provide hits with B-26s from the Alabama National Gaurd, who was the only unit still operating that particular aircraft at the time, painted up like either the Guatemalan or Nicaraguan air force (I forget which, it's been a bit since I read the book).
These would be covered by Cuban-exile flown P-51s and P-38s, all the pilots having had previous experience flying in Africa with the CIA.

Basically, when Kennedy got in he scrapped the B-52 strikes to avoid over angering the Soviets, took away the aircraft from the Cuban exiles, and moved the B-26 launching points from Alabama to Central America to avoid as much direct connection as possible.

Myself, I'd have thought that an invasion of Cuban by Cuban exiles could only have come from America, and that the Americans might as well just use everything in their arsenal. A few B-52 strikes would've done a lot, as would having air superiority over the beaches, even for a few days.
 

Deleted member 5719

The Communists started that one.

Allegedly. All the most senior generals except Suharto disappear and are killed (Communists are blamed). Suharto, who has been in talks with the Brits, Yanks and Malaysians ABOUT a coup, starts a coup. 500,000 reds are murdered, a few years later, Kissinger hands him East Timor as a present, another 200,00 die.
 
Because democracy was only considered valid in Latin America if non-Socialists won. The US incited the overthrow of democratically elected leaders in Chile and Guatemala, and threatened to continue supporting the Contras in Nicaragua unless the people voted for Violeta Chamorro. In the rest of the continent they preferred to support millitary strongmen than risk elections that might bring leftists to power.

They also supported the apartheid regime in South Africa, withdrawing that support only when the fall of the Berlin wall made the Afrikaaners an embarassment. There is also evidence that the US subverted Italian elections to keep the communists out, and conspired with the colonels in Greece. Then we have Indonesia... 100,000 dead? 200,000? In Suaharto/Kissinger's coup.

The US's interest in democracy was a product of the fall of the Berlin wall, up to that point developing countries were not permited free elections if the wrong side was going to win.


Guatemala was a bad call IMO, but at least it delayed the obesity epidemic we see today.

According to the Mitrokhin Archives, Allende was a KGB Agent. Apparently, he shot himself with a rifle castro handed him. the Chilean legislature also delcared no confidence in his autocratic violation of the Chilean constitution.

the 1984 elections were rigged by the sandinistas. Its been proven

as for the US supporting murderous scumbags, that was all realpolitik with the destruction of the USSR being the main goail.

Major leftists:

Mao Tse Tung (81 million dead)

Josef Stalin (50 million dead)

Adolf Hitler (24 million dead)

Benito Mussolini (2 million dead)

Pol Pot (2 million dead)

Fidel Castro (200000 dead)

Just because someone is elected does not mean they are allowed to do whatever they want. What about Hitler? Milosevic? Stalin? The Apartheid government?
 
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According to the Mitrokhin Archives, Allende was a KGB Agent. Apparently, he shot himself with a rifle castro handed him. the Chilean legislature also delcared no confidence in his autocratic violation of the US constitution.?

This is really hilarious. How can he be accused of violating the "US" constitution if he was the president of Chile?:confused:

You now, although the US refers to itself us "America", the US constitution is only valid on US soil, not in the entire American continent;):p:D
 
sorry, that was a typo. I meant the chilean constiution, not the US one.:eek:

I will rectify the error now.
 
Guatemala was a bad call IMO, but at least it delayed the obesity epidemic we see today.

No, seriously, if this is a joke, it's a really stupid one.

Do you have any ideas of the crimes commited by the Guatemalan military??? Neutral parties like the Catholic Church have confirmed that the Human riughts violations they committed were much higher than those committed by the poorly armed "leftists" groups. IIRC, a bishop was shot in the eighties for having denounced this abuses. You could argue that the leftists would have been worst. We'd never know. But the fact we do know is that the US backed military regime commited thousands of killings and tortured a significant amount of the country's population.

The worst thing is that Arbenz wasn't precisely a communist, but a mild nationalist. He's regime might or might not have led Guatemala to a shinning futere, but I don't think it would have gone worst then it did OTL.
 
No, seriously, if this is a joke, it's a really stupid one.

Do you have any ideas of the crimes commited by the Guatemalan military??? Neutral parties like the Catholic Church have confirmed that the Human riughts violations they committed were much higher than those committed by the poorly armed "leftists" groups. IIRC, a bishop was shot in the eighties for having denounced this abuses. You could argue that the leftists would have been worst. We'd never know. But the fact we do know is that the US backed military regime commited thousands of killings and tortured a significant amount of the country's population.

The worst thing is that Arbenz wasn't precisely a communist, but a mild nationalist. He's regime might or might not have led Guatemala to a shinning futere, but I don't think it would have gone worst then it did OTL.

I was just a joke, which i recognise was in extremely poor taste, with regards to united fruit involvement in the coup.

And the bishop you are referring to is presumably oscar romero, which was in el salvador another place where horrible atrocities took place.
 
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