Bavarian Empire

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Deleted member 1487

Assuming that the Carloginians don't rise as per OTL and there are no empires resulting, leaving the Germanic states to develop into independent kingdoms, could Bavaria then carve an empire out of its surrounding territories? OTL the Bavarians colonized Austria and surrounding areas with the help of the Carloginians and the HRE. Without those influences what can Bavaria accomplish on its own?

The Avars are still floating around, as without the Franks I'm not sure if they would be conquered as quickly as OTL. They could still be around when the Magyars arrive. Then too what happens with the Magyars when they show up and invade the Pannonian basin, which Bavaria will be interested in herself? Will Bavaria be interested in setting Bohemia as a separate state or will the area be a target for colonization after the Magyars destroy Great Moravia?
 
If the Carolingians fail to establish hegemony over all of OTL's Frankish Empire, and no other power manages to, then the Bavarians will definitely be a key player in their neighborhood. It is also quite probable that they stay united under one duke.

The exact outcome is, however, hard to guess. Perhaps we should discuss a couple of concrete scenarios how and why the Merowingians/Carolingians are stopped?

In particular, I think it is not possible to make any statements about aspects of history which arose much later, as Magyar invasion or Great Moravia - at least in such generality.
But I think you are right that the Alpine Slavs (ancestors to OTL's Slovenians, Czechs, and Slovaks) will be an important antagonist, as will be the remnants of Celtic and Roman population, in particular in Carantania.
 
I'd say that the Bavarians are unlikely to be strong enough to crush the Avars alone. And if the Avars are still in place with some strength, the Magyars might settle elsewhere, Balkans, Bohemia and southern Poland/Silesia being interesting candidates.
 
I'd say that the Bavarians are unlikely to be strong enough to crush the Avars alone. And if the Avars are still in place with some strength, the Magyars might settle elsewhere, Balkans, Bohemia and southern Poland/Silesia being interesting candidates.
I think this is the right track as I did something similar in the Raptor of Spain where Bavaria is a rising power and survived because the Byzantines revived big time in Europe at the end of the 8th Century and because the Carolingians got distracted by internal wars and the vikings in the 9th century.
 
One of the key questions here reads: Who controls Bohemia?
That needn't be the Czechs as IOTL. Whoever manages to establish stable settlement there is likely to stay there for a long time. Bohemia is the place in the respective region to defend.
 
One of the key questions here reads: Who controls Bohemia?
That needn't be the Czechs as IOTL. Whoever manages to establish stable settlement there is likely to stay there for a long time. Bohemia is the place in the respective region to defend.

I agree. As I said, if the Avars are significantly stronger, the Magyars might settle there, or Moravia can re-center itself westwards.
 

Deleted member 1487

I'd say that the Bavarians are unlikely to be strong enough to crush the Avars alone. And if the Avars are still in place with some strength, the Magyars might settle elsewhere, Balkans, Bohemia and southern Poland/Silesia being interesting candidates.
Agreed with some caveats.

The Avars were on the down slope of their power as they became sedentary farmers instead of nomadic horsemen. The Magyars perfect target. Here the Avars won't be dealing the the 10 Frankish armies which annihilated their culture and depopulated the Pannonian Basin, but they will still have to deal with the increasing power the Bavarians and dissatisfied Croats. The Bulgars will also be pressing in, as will the Pechenegs. The Magyars, even though they were being forced out of their homeland in the Ukraine by greater powers, were still very powerful and could take the Avars by 895 when they first showed up.

OTL the Magyars destroyed the Great Moravians while pressing into the Pannonian plain, which indicates they would have the power to do the same to the Avars. Granted, the effort will likely blunt their strength somewhat, but the Pannonian basin was a more attractive area than Moravia/Bohemia. Likely both areas are going to fall to the Avars IMHO, as per OTL, though the Magyars will be somewhat weaker because they need to make a greater effort to conquer all of this than OTL.

Once they do however, they are now caught between three powers who have had the blocks to their expansion knocked out: the Bavarians, Bulgars, and Pechenegs. Weaker than OTL and somewhat overextended the Magyars will be facing off against the Bavarians in the West, who OTL took Bohemia/Moravia, but here are likely to realize the conquest of Pannonia up to the Danube, while the Bulgars have Transsylvania in their sights, as it was theirs before the Magyars showed up. Then there is the Pechenegs over the Carpathians, who were the ones who drove out the Magyars in the first place.

Though I don't see they Magyars being destroyed, they will have a smaller kingdom than OTL, as the number of powers interested in the areas under the weaker Magyar control are many and strong.
 
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Deleted member 1487

One of the key questions here reads: Who controls Bohemia?
That needn't be the Czechs as IOTL. Whoever manages to establish stable settlement there is likely to stay there for a long time. Bohemia is the place in the respective region to defend.

Probably the Magyars then Bavarians. OTL the Magyars swept into the area and destroyed the Great Moravian empire, but they stopped before truly finishing off the Bohemians because of the East Frankish empire. ITTL the Franks won't have carved out an empire and won't be around to aid the Bohemians. Instead the Magyars can finish them off, as the Bavarians probably would have been fighting the Bohemians themselves and would be content to take on the weakened victory of the Magyar-Czech struggle.

This leaves the relatively untouched Bavarians to sweep in and pick up the pieces. OTL the Bavarians beat the Magyars with the Bohemians, but with the Magyars making a greater effort to take the area, they will likely incur greater losses, which in turn makes them more susceptible to a just Bavarian invasion.
 

Deleted member 1487

If the Carolingians fail to establish hegemony over all of OTL's Frankish Empire, and no other power manages to, then the Bavarians will definitely be a key player in their neighborhood. It is also quite probable that they stay united under one duke.

The exact outcome is, however, hard to guess. Perhaps we should discuss a couple of concrete scenarios how and why the Merowingians/Carolingians are stopped?

This seems relatively plausible:

I think this is the right track as I did something similar in the Raptor of Spain where Bavaria is a rising power and survived because the Byzantines revived big time in Europe at the end of the 8th Century and because the Carolingians got distracted by internal wars and the vikings in the 9th century.

Perhaps Charles Martel is killed at Tours. The Franks win, but then fall to infighting, as no one man has the same sort of charisma or clout to unite the Franks. As greater threats emerge from without and within the various local rulers look to their own defenses and never manage to pull Europe together and form an empire.

As a result the pagan Germanic kingdoms aren't overrun and have their power shattered by the Franks, which allows them to grow and expand while later peacefully coming to a modified version of Christianity. Saxony becomes a major power, as do the Danes, while in Central Europe the Bavarians colonize much of their surrounding lands and take advantage of the weakness/defeats of their neighbors.

The Magyars for instance, as I've mentioned several times already, act as an ice breaker by taking down the Avars and Great Moravians, but are weaker than OTL because they confront stronger enemies. Bavaria is somewhat weak in position than OTL by 900 because they don't have the Franks backing them up, but by having weaker enemies than OTL it doesn't really matter and they can govern themselves without pissing off a higher power (HRE) and losing their gains like OTL.
 
Any other ideas?
I actually obliterated Saxony on the continent (Saxony is a region of the British Isles now) but otherwise it proceeded similarly to how you suggest though at one point a revived Frankish kingdom temporarily extended overlord ship to the Danish lands in a shaky nominal kind of way for about 60 years that sucked up Frankish manpower and whose only real result was to Christianize the Danes more thoroughly and rapidly. Magyar migrations are a big one, but there might also be some effects on Rus' power, especially if Denmark is more powerful earlier on (as in powerful enough to make noise in Sweden).

I've made various confusing references to the occurs in this area in my TL. I think it's time to go back and straighten everything out in Extra #7. So I'll go write that and when it gets posted maybe it would inspire you.
 
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