Bavaria gets Baden (c. 1830)

[miguelrj]

IOTL Bavaria came close to inherit the whole of Baden. In 1817 when Grand-Duke Karl lost his only son, the only agnate member of the royal family was his childless uncle Ludwig. With the semi-salic law in place that meant that after his uncle, the next in line would be his sister, none other than the Queen of Bavaria.
This was avoided by "relegitimizing" an agnatic morganatic branch of the family.

WI Bavaria does get Baden in - say - 1830 (Ludwig's OTL death). What does this change?

Baden connects mainland Bavaria to its Palatinate so hurray for territorial contiguity! Württemberg and the Hohenzollern principalities are now surrounded by Bavaria, except for a thin lake shore in SE Württemberg that oversees Switzerland.

Does Bavaria-Baden have more of a say in the Germany Confederation to threaten Austro-Prussian dualism?

 

[Westphalian]

Nice idea.

The earliest population info I can find for Baden is from 1841: 1,3 million.
Bavaria had 16,5 million in 1835, 17 million in 1841. So, populationwise, they would only gain 7,6 percent.

In 1830, the only Federal Fortifications are Landau, Luxemburg and Mainz. Neither Rastatt in Baden nor Ulm in Württemberg and Bavaria are even planned yet. I expect that the negotiations about them will be altered heavily.

In military terms, Austria paid 31.44% of the Federal Army's budget, Prussia paid 26.52%, Bavaria paid 11.8% and Baden paid 3.31%. B+B combined is 15.11%, with the 4.63% of Württemberg on a distant fourth place.

The Bavarian army simply was the VII. Army Corps (36.600 troops) of the Federal Army, while Badens army (10.000 troops) was a part of the VIII. corps, together with Württemberg and Hesse-Darmstadt. If there is new 46.600 army of Greater Bavaria, this is really respectable, even compared to Prussias 79.234.

So, regarding its fighting power, Greater Bavaria looks respectable. On paper.

Next post: Politics.

 

[mrmandias]

Keep it coming.

 

[Westphalian]

Would Greater Bavaria be more powerful in the German Confederation? Not formally. After 1866, Prussia could demand that in the NorGerCon, the GerCon votes of Hanover, Holstein, Hesse-Cassel and Nassau would be added to Prussia's traditional votes. I cannot imagine something similar happening here, since Austria, Prussia, Bavaria, Hanover, Württemberg and Saxony had 4 votes each. Adding the three votes of Baden to Bavaria will not happen.

Additonally, Bavaria had a really tough streak of bad luck with its kings. Since 1825, the king is Ludwig I., who after the 1230 revolution in France and Belgium bacame rather reactionary. Don't forget that the Hambacher Fest as first great demonstration by the German National movement, happened there because the Rhenish Palatinate was so dissatisfied with the government in far away Munich.
It is not far-fetched to predict comparable discontent inside former Baden.

The Baden Constitution of 1818 is considerably more liberal and progressive than the Bavarian Constitution of the same year. In Baden, almost 70% of the male subjects could vote, whereas the Bavarian Lower House was elected by ~6% of the male population. Additionally, the Baden parliament had much more competences than its Bavarian counterpart.

So when the Bavarian Constitution is extended to Baden, the democratically inclined and trained notables will be very unhappy - but I cannot see Ludwig I. not doing so. Instead of L.G. von Winter shaping the Baden parliament into the "school of liberalism" in pre-1848 Germany, expect tough repression, backed by the reactionary German Confederation. No freedom of the press for Baden in this TL.

In fact, this *might* be a reason for your PoD to happen: It wouldn't need much tweaking to have the German powers become so disgusted with Badens liberalism that they hope that Bavaria will be able to crush or at least contain it; better than another local dynasty.

Who knows, perhaps some exchange of ideas between German liberals and French Orleanists is blown out of proportion - then the Bavarian takeover is seen in the rest of Germany as "securing the Rhine border against French aggression".

After Ludwig I. (who had to resign in 1848 of shaming himself with his affair witht erotic dancer Lola Montez aka the Countess of Landsfeld) there was Maximilian II. who had to ask to Prussian military help to regain the Palatinate. Expect him to spend much effort to make Bavaria into the Third Power in Germany, regardless. In the 1850s he showed liberal tendencies, but not enough to win over the sympathies of the democrats.

His sons, excentric Ludwig II. and clinically insane Otto I., ended the political role of the Bavarian king, certainly.

 

[Mikestone8]

The earliest population info I can find for Baden is from 1841: 1,3 million.

Bavaria had 16,5 million in 1835, 17 million in 1841. So, populationwise, they would only gain 7,6 percent.

Huh?

According to McEvedy, Bavaria's population in 1848 was 4.4 million. The figures you quote sound more like Prussia's population than Bavaria's. Acquiring Baden would represent about a 30% increase in population.

 

[Westphalian]

Huh?

According to McEvedy, Bavaria's population in 1848 was 4.4 million. The figures you quote sound more like Prussia's population than Bavaria's. Acquiring Baden would represent about a 30% increase in population.

First error: mea culpa. My source stated Bavaria had 1.65 million in 1835, 1.7 million in 1841. I misread it both times by a digit.

Second error: I relied on a very faulty source. Now I found one that gave 3.7 Million in 1818 and 4.3 million in 1840. That is much more plausible when compared to your info. It also goes well with this timeline from the site of the official Bavarian office for statistics:

So, about 4 million for 1830 it is. A increase in population by 30% is correct.

Thank you for catching this.

 

[miguelrj]

Thank you so much for your thorough analysis, Westphalian.

Regarding the PoD...

I can see that Prussia and Austria may not feel so threatened by a Bavarian growth so that they'd intervene to stop it. But is their fear of liberalism so strong that they'd take action to create a potential 3rd German power? Well, that's a thought.

I read somewhere that the drive to create the 1818 constitution was precisely to write on stone that the morganatic branch would succeed Karl and Ludwig. Why they put the rest so liberal beats me... I had actually read that the reason was because they were pandering to the people for their support in their dynastic decision but that seems a little unnecessary: I'm sure the Baden people wouldn't like to be ruled from Munich in the first place...

I was therefore considering if it was viable to butterfly away the 1818 constitution altogether. WI Karl and Ludwig weren't so appalled by the idea of having his dynasty die out and won't mind seeing their (respectively) royal sister and niece succeed them than their (respectively) half-royal uncle and half-brother?

The Bavarians didn't push for their rights so energetically because, well, the Napoleonic Wars had just happened and they were lucky enough that they didn't even have their wrists slapped for having sided with Napoleon for so long, it was no time to get demanding.

Good PR is what they need, methinks. WI they simply charm their Baden relatives to forget about their other half-royal relatives and let it go?

 

[Westphalian]

Hm. Killing off all of the three Hochberg brothers seems overkill, litarally.
But perhaps Leopold von Hochberg does something so stupid or embarassing pre-1818 that his whole line is overlooked. Selectively ignoring him would probably not work in terms of inheritance laws.

With a PoD around 1818, we are almost still in the late Napoleonic times. Perhaps Metternich has a reason to support the Bavarian inheritance and there is an agreement in a secret article in the Treaty of Munich of 1816?

Considering just how reactionary the German Confederation was after 1819 ...

/screeching halt/

1819. The Carlsbad decrees. After August von Kotzebue was assassinated. In Mannheim in Baden.

That might just be the PoD: Somehow the just recently legitimated Prince Leopold of Baden states something pro-democratic after assassination that has Russia (as Kotzebues "employer") seething and the other conservative German princes deeply annoyed. In Carlsbad, they bluntly declare that the Hochberg branch is unfit to rule and obviously too close to the hoi polloi. Baden is shamed for its lax security and forced to change its line of succession.

++++

Another aspect: I just realized that in this TL there will be no city of Ludwigshafen. Instead there will be a larger Mannheim on both sides of the Rhine. OTOH, Karlsruhe will be much less important.

And - this is really marginal, but with a PoD around 1818/19, there will be a different papal circumscription bull Provida Solersque in 1821: If in the foreseeable future baden will become a part of Bavaria, then
a) to get clear diocesal borders, the Hohenzollern lands will probably become part of the bishopric of Rottenburg, not Freiburg
b) Freiburg will probably be just a bishopric and suffragan to the archbishop in Speyer
c) The other southwestern bishoprics(Rottenburg, Limburg, Fulda will be probably made suffragans to a recreated Archbishopric of Mainz

 

[miguelrj]

Hm. Killing off all of the three Hochberg brothers seems overkill, litarally.

Oh I wasn't trying to kill off anyone. Of course that if Karl and Ludwig pre-1818 fall themselves victims of an accident or a disease outbreak, the Bavarians could seize the opportunity. But indeed there is no need to go that far, everyone may live and die more or less like IOTL and this can still be done with least forced PoDs...

But perhaps Leopold von Hochberg does something so stupid or embarassing pre-1818 that his whole line is overlooked.

Oh yes, precisely, something like that should do the trick.

Selectively ignoring him would probably not work in terms of inheritance laws.

AFAIK the laws favored the Bavarians until the laws got bypassed (in 1818?) with the recognition of the morgnatic branch. If the Hochbergs are ignored, they're still out of the line of succession.

That might just be the PoD: Somehow the just recently legitimated Prince Leopold of Baden states something pro-democratic after assassination that has Russia (as Kotzebues "employer") seething and the other conservative German princes deeply annoyed. In Carlsbad, they bluntly declare that the Hochberg branch is unfit to rule and obviously too close to the hoi polloi. Baden is shamed for its lax security and forced to change its line of succession.

That could work too.

 

[ingemann]

IOTL Bavaria came close to inherit the whole of Baden. In 1817 when Grand-Duke Karl lost his only son, the only agnate member of the royal family was his childless uncle Ludwig. With the semi-salic law in place that meant that after his uncle, the next in line would be his sister, none other than the Queen of Bavaria.
This was avoided by "relegitimizing" an agnatic morganatic branch of the family.

WI Bavaria does get Baden in - say - 1830 (Ludwig's OTL death). What does this change?

Baden connects mainland Bavaria to its Palatinate so hurray for territorial contiguity! Württemberg and the Hohenzollern principalities are now surrounded by Bavaria, except for a thin lake shore in SE Württemberg that oversees Switzerland.

Does Bavaria-Baden have more of a say in the Germany Confederation to threaten Austro-Prussian dualism?

Yes the problem here is that Bavaria clearly is not a minor power anymore, even in OTL we saw a close alliance/cooperation between Bavaria and Württemberg, here Würt. will have little choice to enter Bavarian orbit even more, making Bavaria clearly dominate (modern) South Germany. More it's likely that the Bavarian may intervene into Swiss to "protect" the "religious liberties" of the Swiss Catholics and more or less use it as a excuse to annex Switzerland, it's one of the few times where there are a window to do so, without French or Austrian intervention.

 

[Westphalian]

I looked a bit closer at the Southern German Tariffs Union (SGTU) that in OTL covered only Bayern and Württemberg.

Here I assume that after 1819 everyone knows that after the death of Grand Duke Ludwig Baden will go to Bavaria.
Further I assume that as a result some of the biggest quarrels between Bavaria and Baden will be removed. Among them is the question of the County of Sponheim, a territory on both sides of the Nahe River in the Bavarian Palatinate. Baden had an old claim on that area and this led to a lot of quarreling in the 1820s. In this TL, that territorial dispute would be pointless.
Additionally, not many Baden bureaucrats will be eager to pursue politics that will make their future Bavarian monarch angry.

So, how will that change the negotiations for a SGTU? In OTL, they started in 1820 in Darmstadt between Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden, Hesse-Cassel, Hesse-Darmstadt, Nassau (and some Thuringian statelets).
Their main reason was the common fear of political and economic domination by Prussia.
Of those states, Bavaria and Württemberg pursued a protectionist tariff system, whereas Baden, Hesse-Darmstadt and Nassau preferred a free trade policy since they lay along the banks of the Rhine.
In addition, Bavaria demanded that the common revenue should be shared according to population and area, while Baden demanded that they should be shared according to population and border length.
Both conflicts will not happen in this TL in the same way.

The negotiations ended in 1824 without success because the relations between Bavaria and Baden were that bad; not the least bacause of the Sponheim conflict. The second round in Stuttgart in 1825 collapsed the same year when Baden, Hesse-D and Nassau walked out.

As a result, Bayern and Württemberg concluded a tariff treaty, wheras Hesse-D chose a tariff union with Prussia, the core of the later German Zollverein.

So, with a bit of luck, there might be a Bavarian decision to adapt some of the Baden points of view, especially because they will have a very long Rhine border soon. If we even get a true SGTU from Cassel to Constance, this will change a lot of things.

 

[Westphalian]

More it's likely that the Bavarian may intervene into Swiss to "protect" the "religious liberties" of the Swiss Catholics and more or less use it as a excuse to annex Switzerland, it's one of the few times where there are a window to do so, without French or Austrian intervention.

I really do not think so. The catholic canton hoped for Austrian intervention on their side. But nothing came, because Austria regarded the risk as to hight and the possible gain to small. And if Metternich decides not to intervene on the reactionary side, no one else will. In 1847, Bavaria will have (still) its hands full to keep their Baden and Palatinate possession quiet and they would have to be insane to add a highly unwilling Switzerland to their list of troubles. A highly troubled king Ludwig I. trying to order a military intervention and losing his throne over that as well I can buy, OTOH.